chamber poll 2014

8/10/2019 Chamber Poll 2014

1/50

Oakland Metropolitan Chamber of CommerceVoter Survey Results

October 15, 2014


2/50

Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 2

Please note that due to rounding, some

percentages may not add up to exactly 100%.

Telephone survey of Likely November 2014 Voters in the City of

Oakland

Research conducted jointly by Oakland pollsters EMC Research and

FM3

Interviews conducted October 5-9, 2014

500 total interviews city wide

Margin of Error: + 4.4 percentage points

Interviewing conducted by trained, professional interviewers

Landlines and mobile phones included

Where appropriate, results compared with previous survey

conducted by EMC Research in September 2013

Methodology


3/50


Voters feel things are improving in Oakland: Most feel the local

economy in Oakland is getting better; quality of life ratings have

improved; a plurality feel the city is on the right track, and most feelsafer or as safe as they did a year or two ago.

At the same time, ratings of city leadership remain very weak. Both

Mayor Quan and the City Council have job ratings below 20%.

Schools, safety and jobs remain voters top concerns.

An overwhelming majority of voters feel the City should be making it

easier to start and grow a business in Oakland, and voters place a

higher priority on helping local businesses than attracting national

chains.

Key Findings: Voter Attitudes


4/50


21% of voters are undecided on their first choice vote, and another 34% have

not yet allocated (and may not allocate) all three of their choices.

Mayor Quans unfavorable to favorable numbers remain stubbornly high, with a

weak job rating and low vote total despite the increasingly positive sense about

the state and direction of the City.

Bryan Parker, the OakPAC-endorsed candidate, trails the field, but has the most

opportunity to improve given current name ID, especially in the wake of the SFChronicle endorsement.

Libby Schaafs position is improving, with a 20 point improvement in name ID

since last year, and a significant bump in support during this poll after receiving

the endorsement of Governor Brown last week.

Having run City-wide twice already, Kaplan remains in the lead but has less

room to improve her name ID; and her unfavorable rating is higher than any

candidate other than the Mayor.

Key Findings: 2014 Mayoral Election


5/50

Voter Attitudes on Jobs and

Economic Development


6/50


Perceptions of Oaklands Economy

61%

15%

7%

17%

Better Same Don't know Worse

More than 6 in 10 voters say the citys economy is better than a year or two ago.

Q11. Thinking about Oaklands economy today, would you say Oaklands economy is better than ayear or two ago, or would you say it is worse?


7/50Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 7

Perceptions of Economy by Council DistrictVoters in Districts 6 and 7 are least likely to feel the economy is improving.

Q11. Thinking about Oaklands economy today, would you say Oaklands economy is better than ayear or two ago, or would you say it is worse?

61%

66%68%

60%

66%

59%

52%

46%

15%

13%

17%

13%

15%

26%

13%

12%

7%

4%7%

10%

3%

13%

16%

17%

17%7%

17%

16%

15%

22%

26%

Overall

D1 (n=105)D2 (n=75)

D3 (n=80)

D4 (n=85)

D5 (n=45)

D6 (n=60)

D7 (n=50)

Better Same (Don't know) Worse



Oakland Voter Priorities

59%

73%

58%

46%

43%

46%

42%

42%

36%

39%

32%

32%

35%

23%

19%

12%

18%

18%

17%

13%

17%

14%

19%

13%

13%

14%

8%

9%

13%

6%

14%

23%

22%

21%

20%

22%

20%

17%

23%

17%

16%

23%

91%

91%

90%

87%

82%

80%

79%

78%

75%

69%

68%

63%

59%

55%

Public safety and crime prevention

Improving the quality of public schools

Creating good-paying local jobs

Keeping parks safe and clean

Repairing and maintaining roads

Building housing that lower & middle-income people can afford

Balancing the city budget

Making it easier to start, run, & grow a business in Oakland

Improving city government services

Cleaning up blight, illegal dumping, and graffiti

Improving public transportation

Providing recreational opportunities

Protecting residents from increased fees and taxes

Building more housing

7 Extremely Important 6 5 Total Important

Voters rate public safety, schools and jobs as the most important priorities for the city.

Using a scale from 1 to 7 where 1 is not at all important and 7 is extremely important,

how important do you feel each of the following should be in Oakland right now? (SplitSample, N=250)



Improving Oaklands business climateAn overwhelming majority of voters across all demographic groups believe the city should

be making it easier to start and grow a business in Oakland.

Q13c-Q13d. (SPLIT SAMPLE B ONLY) Next, do you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhatdisagree or strongly disagree with each of the following statements?

The city should make it easier to startand grow a business in Oakland.

88%

88%

90%

93%

83%

96%

83%

86%

95%

78%

7%

5%

6%

1%

13%

2%

9%

14%

5%

8%

5%

7%

4%

5%

4%

2%

8%

13%

Overall

Men 18-49

Women 18-49

Men 50+

Women 50+

Black/African-American

White

Hispanic

Asian

Other

Agree Don't know Disagree



Improving Oaklands business climateAcross the city, voters feel strongly that the city should make it easier for businesses.

Q13c-Q13d. (SPLIT SAMPLE B ONLY) Next, do you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhatdisagree or strongly disagree with each of the following statements?

The city should make it easier to startand grow a business in Oakland.

88%

83%

92%

83%

88%

89%

94%

95%

7%

17%

5%

7%

3%

6%

2%

5%

3%

9%

8%

5%

5%

5%

Overall

D1 (n=105)

D2 (n=75)

D3 (n=80)

D4 (n=85)

D5 (n=45)

D6 (n=60)

D7 (n=50)

Agree Don't know Disagree



Attitudes toward economic development policiesMore than 3 in 4 voters support requiring affordable housing in new development; most

voters also support tax incentives to attract businesses and allowing more chain stores.

Q14a-Q14c. Next, Id like to get your opinion on some ideas about economic growth and jobcreation. Do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose

53%

38%

37%

25%

32%

25%

5%

7%

5%

10%

15%

17%

7%

9%

15%

Requiring affordable housing

be part of any new housing

development project

Offering tax incentives to

encourage companies to move

to Oakland

Allowing more national retail

stores to locate in Oakland

Stronglyfavor

Somewhatfavor

(Don't know) Somewhatoppose

Stronglyoppose



Priorities for Business DevelopmentVoters want the city to focus on supporting local businesses over national chains; more

voters want to see the city focus on neighborhood stores than downtown, but both are

priorities.

Q15a-Q15i. Now Id like to ask about your opinion on priorities for business development in

Oakland. For each of the following items, please tell me how high a priority that item should be for

the City of Oakland. Use a scale of 1 to 7, where 1 means the lowest priority and 7 means thehighest priority?

56%

50%

49%

44%

37%

41%

31%

16%

20%

21%

18%

19%

20%

15%

17%

8%

14%

17%

20%

18%

22%

18%

20%

19%

90%

88%

87%

81%

79%

74%

68%

43%

Supporting local Oakland-owned

stores

Supporting existing stores in local

neighborhoods

Promoting art, music and culture

Promoting new downtown retail

Supporting food and restaurants

Attracting new tech jobs

Building high quality housing

Introducing big national chains

7 6 5 Total Priority



Support for neighborhood stores by Council DistrictVoters across Oakland want to see the City do more to support neighborhood stores.




50%

51%

44%

49%

54%

53%43%

54%

21%

22%

27%

18%

22%

20%27%

9%

17%

20%

19%

13%

16%

12%15%

25%

88%

93%

90%

80%

92%

85%85%

88%

Overall

City Council District 1 (n=105)







7 6 5 Total PrioritySupporting existing stores in localneighborhoods.


14/50


New downtown retail by Council districtVoters in D4, D6 and D7 are most likely to want the city to promote downtown retail.




44%

40%

33%

46%

51%

42%48%

55%

19%

26%

21%

15%

26%

11%10%

11%

18%

17%

28%

15%

8%

20%24%

15%

81%

83%

82%

76%

85%

73%82%

81%

Overall








7 6 5 Total PriorityPromoting new downtown retail.


15/50


Support for new housing by Council districtVoters in D2 are least interested in new housing; voters in D7 are most likely to want the

City to focus on new housing.




31%

32%

18%

28%

36%

30%30%

50%

17%

18%

23%

17%

17%

14%

11%

13%

20%

27%

23%

15%

22%

15%19%

13%

68%

77%

64%

60%

75%

59%60%

76%

Overall








7 6 5 Total PriorityBuilding high quality housing.


16/50


Oakland Culture & Dining ParticipationMost voters have dined downtown more than twice in the last year.

Q16a-Q16e. Next, in the last twelve months, about how many times do you think you or anotherhousehold member has done each of the following activities.

31%

17%

23%

6%

7%

38%

40%

35%

25%

19%

20%

27%

17%

24%

28%

89%

84%

75%

55%

54%

Shopped or dined in downtown

Oakland

Shopped or dined in Jack London

Square

Shopped or dined in Uptown

Attended Oaklands First Fridays Art

Festival

Attended either an Oakland As or

Oakland Raiders game

More than 12 times 3-12 times 1-2 times Total Attend


17/50


Oakland Culture & Dining Participation Over TimeVoters report more shopping and dining visits compared to last year.

Q16a-Q16e. Next, in the last twelve months, about how many times do you think you or anotherhousehold member has done each of the following activities.

6%

3%

17%

13%

23%

21%

31%

29%

25%

18%

40%

38%

35%

32%

38%

40%

24%

26%

27%

26%

17%

16%

20%

15%

55%

47%

84%

77%

75%

68%

89%

84%

2014

2013

2014

2013

2014

2013

2014

2013

FirstFridays

JackLondon

Uptown

Downtown

More than 12 times 3-12 times 1-2 times Total Attend


18/50

Attitudes Toward Oakland


19/50


Direction of Oakland

71%68% 70%

58%

69%

49% 48%

25%20%

23%23%26%

17%

27%

33%36%

45%

20% 19% 17%

26%

19%

33%38%

58%63%

54% 55% 54%59%

47%

50%46%

38%

Oct

99

Feb

00

Mar

01

Jun

01

Jul

01

May

02

Jun

02

Mar

05

Apr

09

Nov

09

Jan

10

Apr

12

Sep

12

Aug

13

Sep

13

Mar

14

Jul

14

Oct

14

Right direction Wrong track

Voters have grown more optimistic about Oakland over the past year.

Q2. Do you think things in the City of Oakland are generally going in the

right direction, or do you feel that things are pretty seriously off on thewrong track? Source: Previous data from past EMC polling in Oakland


20/50


Oaklands Quality of LifeRatings of Oakland as a place to live have also improved over the last year.

Q10. How would you rate Oakland as a place to live? Would you say it is an excellent, good, onlyfair, or poor place to live?

35%

21%

43%

49%

1%

2%

16%

20%

5%

8%

2014

2013

Excellent Good (Don't know) Only Fair Poor


21/50


Rating Quality of Life by Council DistrictVoters in D6 and D7 are least likely to say Oakland is an excellent place to live.

Q10. How would you rate Oakland as a place to live? Would you say it is an excellent, good, onlyfair, or poor place to live?

35%

44%39%

35%

31%

44%

25%

17%

43%

39%41%

44%

54%

24%

48%

45%

1%

1%

4%

2%

16%

11%17%

16%

12%

22%

18%

29%

5%

6%3%

3%

2%

9%

5%

7%

Overall

D1

D2

D3

D4

D5

D6

D7



22/50


Feelings of Safety35% say they feel safer in Oakland than a year or two ago, and 35% feel safer in their

neighborhood.

Would you say you feel safer today in Oakland / your neighborhood than youdid a year or two ago, or would you say you feel less safe?

35%

35%

37%

39%

2%

4%

25%

23%

In Oakland

In your

neighborhood

Safer Same (Don't know) Less Safe


23/50


Trend: Perceptions of Safety in Oakland

24%20%

13% 12% 13%

35%35% 34%

51%47%

55%

25%

Nov-09 Jan-10 Apr-12 Sep-12 13-Sep Oct-14

Safer Less Safe

Perceptions of safety have improved sharply.

Next, would you say you feel safer today in Oakland than

you did a year or two ago, or would you say you feel lesssafe? (Split Sample, N=250)


24/50


Feelings of Neighborhood Safety by Council DistrictVoters in D5 and D7 are most likely to say their neighborhoods have become less safe.

(Split Sample, N=250) Next, would you say you feel safer today in your neighborhood than you did ayear or two ago, or would you say you feel less safe?

35%

38%30%

33%

37%

39%

33%

36%

39%

36%

51%

36%

41%

32%

48%

20%

4%

3%3%

6%

16%

23%

24%16%

25%

22%

29%

19%

28%

Overall

D1

D2

D3

D4

D5

D6

D7

Safer Same (Don't know) Less Safe


25/50


Job Ratings: Mayor and City CouncilDespite optimism about the citys direction, job ratings of the Mayor and City Council

remain weak.

Q5a-Q5b. Next, using a scale of excellent, good, only fair, or poor... How would you rate the overall

job Oakland Mayor Jean Quan is doing? How would you rate the overall job the Oakland CityCouncil is doing?

4%

1%

15%

16%

3%

9%

42%

53%

35%

21%

Oakland Mayor Jean

Quan

Oakland City Council



26/50


Job Ratings: Mayor and City Council Over TimeJob ratings for Mayor and Council are essentially unchanged since 2013.

Q5a-Q5b. Next, using a scale of excellent, good, only fair, or poor... How would you rate the overall

job Oakland Mayor Jean Quan is doing? How would you rate the overall job the Oakland CityCouncil is doing?

19%

20%

17%

14%

3%

4%

9%

11%

77%

77%

74%

75%

2014

2013

2014

2013

Oaklan

dMayorJean

Quan

OaklandCityCouncil

Excellent/Good (Don't know) Only Fair/Poor


27/50

2014 Mayoral Election:

Background


28/50


Quan Favorable Rating Trend

35%

51%

36%

24% 34%

12%17%

53%

62%57%

Nov-09 Sep-10 Sep-12 Sep-13 Oct-14

Favorable Unfavorable

Mayor Quansfavorable rating has improved since last year but a solid majority continue

to hold negative opinions of her.

Please tell me if you have a strongly favorable, somewhat favorable,

somewhat unfavorable, or strongly unfavorable opinion of MayorJean Quan

b l


29/50


Incumbent Vital Signs: Jean QuanOn all key measures, Quan remains weak for an incumbent.

Would you say you feel safer today in Oakland / your neighborhood than youdid a year or two ago, or would you say you feel less safe?

34% 19% 25% 28%

8%

3%

8%

21%

57%

77%67%

51%

Quan Favorable Quan Job Rating Quan Re-elect Initial Vote

Favors

Challengers

Neutral

Favors Quan

(Vote Quan

with any

choice)

(Undecided

1st Choice)

(Vote for

Challengersonly)

M l C did N ID


30/50


Mayoral Candidates Name IDKaplan and Quan are best known by a wide margin.

Q4a-Q4i. Now Im going to read you a list of people and organizations. For each one, please tell me

if you have a strongly favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or stronglyunfavorable opinion of that person or organization. If you have never heard of one, please say so.

91%

72%

52%

49%

42%

36%

32%

6%

13%

18%

18%

18%

20%

20%

98%

86%

69%

68%

61%

57%

52%

Mayor Jean Quan

City Council Member Rebecca Kaplan

City Council Member Libby Schaaf

Civil Rights Attorney Dan Siegel

Government Law Professor Joe

Tuman

City Auditor Courtney Ruby

Businessperson and University

Trustee Bryan Parker

Hard Name ID (Fav + Unfav) Soft Name ID (Can't rate) Total Name ID

M l C did F bl


31/50


Mayoral Candidates - FavorablesKaplan has significant unfavorable rating; Schaaf has the strongest favorable to

unfavorable ratio.

Q4a-Q4i. Now Im going to read you a list of people and organizations. For each one, please tell me

if you have a strongly favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or stronglyunfavorable opinion of that person or organization. If you have never heard of one, please say so.

50%

44%

35%

34%

33%

27%

21%

28%

48%

51%

8%

58%

63%

68%

22%

8%

14%

57%

9%

9%

11%

2.3

5.5

2.5

0.6

3.7

3.0

1.9

City Council Member Rebecca Kaplan

City Council Member Libby Schaaf

Civil Rights Attorney Dan Siegel

Mayor Jean Quan

Government Law Professor Joe Tuman

City Auditor Courtney Ruby

Businessperson and University Trustee

Bryan Parker

Favorable Can't Rate/Never Heard

Unfavorable Fav/UnfavRatio

l bl i d


32/50


Kaplan Favorable Rating Trend

32%

44%

54%50%

8%13% 13%

22%

Nov-09 Sep-10 Sep-12 Oct-14


Kaplans unfavorable has risen as she has become better known.


somewhat unfavorable, or strongly unfavorable opinion of City

Council Member Rebecca Kaplan

S h f F bl R i T d


33/50


Schaaf Favorable Rating Trend

23% 26%

44%

5% 7%8%

Apr-12 Sep-13 Oct-14


Schaaf name ID and favorables have spiked since September 2013.


somewhat unfavorable, or strongly unfavorable opinion of City

Council Member Libby Schaaf


34/50

2014 Mayoral Election:

Vote


35/50


36/50

M l V t RCV R lt


37/50


Mayoral Vote RCV ResultsKaplan beats Schaaf in the ranked choice vote results.

Mayoral vote ranked choice vote distribution

Candidate Initial Top 7 Top 6 Top 5 Top 4 Top 3 Final

Kaplan 20.9 27.9 28.7 30.5 33.0 40.7 58.8

Schaaf 14.3 18.4 19.6 20.9 27.0 30.9 41.3

Quan 17.1 22.0 23.0 23.4 24.9 28.4

Siegel 9.0 11.8 12.4 13.6 15.1Tuman 7.6 10.0 10.7 11.6

Parker 4.0 5.1 5.6

Ruby 3.7 4.8

Undecided/Other 23.4

Sample Size remaining

after eliminated votes 500 389 384 378 362 343 300

Margin of error +4.4% +5.0% +5.0% +5.0% +5.1% +5.3% +5.7%

Mayoral Vote Shift During Poll


38/50


Mayoral Vote Shift During PollSchaaf moves into second place on the news of her endorsement from Governor Brown.

20%

9%

18%

10%

9%

3%

4%

39%

26%

29%

23%

20%

12%

16%

Kaplan

Schaaf

Quan

Tuman

Siegel

Ruby

Parker

First Choice Total Vote

Mayoral vote asked in actual ballot order and using full ballot titles for each candidate.

October 5-6 (n=186)October 7-9 (n=314)

22%

17%

17%

6%

9%

4%

4%

45%

37%

27%

23%

19%

14%

11%

Kaplan

Schaaf

Quan

Tuman

Siegel

Ruby

Parker

First Choice Total Vote

October 5-6 Results October 7-9 Results

RCV result:

Kaplan 57%

Quan 43%

RCV result:

Kaplan 57%

Schaaf 43%

Mayoral IRV Simulation: Top 7


39/50



If the election were held today, who would be you first choice for Mayor of Oakland if thecandidates were

5% 5%10% 12%

22%18%

28%

Ruby Parker Tuman Siegel Quan Schaaf Kaplan



40/50




5% 5%10% 12%

22% 18%28%

1%1% 1%

1%1%

1%

6%11% 12%

23%

20%

29%




41/50




6%11% 12%

23% 20%29%

1% 1%

0% 1%

2%

12% 14%

23%

21%

31%



42/50



43/50




15%

25% 27%33%

4%4%

8%28%

31%

41%


Mayoral IRV Simulation: Final


44/50


Mayoral IRV Simulation: Final


28% 31%

41%

10%

18%41%

59%



45/50

Oakland Ballot

Measures

Attitudes Toward Property Taxes


46/50


Attitudes Toward Property TaxesMost voters think property taxes are too high; voters in D6 and D7 are most likely to agree.

Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements?

Property taxes in Oakland

are too high.

53%

45%

48%

40%

61%

57%

63%

70%

17%

22%

17%

29%

7%

14%

9%

16%

30%

33%

35%

31%

32%

28%

28%

14%

Overall

D1 (n=105)

D2 (n=75)

D3 (n=80)

D4 (n=85)

D5 (n=45)

D6 (n=60)

D7 (n=50)

Agree (Don't know) Disagree

Measure Z Vote


47/50


Measure Z Vote

Yes, approve54%

No, reject

27% Undecided

19%

Yes, approve No, reject Undecided

Support for Measure Z falls short of 2/3.

(On the ballot, the text of Measure Z begins with the wording without increasing current tax rates Recent public

polling which tested the measures full ballot language showed support at 75%.)

Q3a. Next, there are several measures on the ballot in the City of Oakland this November. If the

election were held today, would you vote yes to approve or no to reject each of the followingmeasures

Would you vote yes to approve or no to reject:

Measure Z, which would renew an annual parcel tax and parking tax to fund

police staffing and violence prevention and intervention programs.

Measure N Vote


48/50


Measure N Vote

Yes, approve

59%

No, reject

23%Undecided

18%

Yes, approve No, reject Undecided

Support for measure N is also less than the 2/3 required.

Q3b. Next, there are several measures on the ballot in the City of Oakland this November. If the

election were held today, would you vote yes to approve or no to reject each of the following

measuresMeasure N, which would establish an annual parcel tax of $120 dedicated to schoolprograms that prepare students for colleges and real-world jobs, and reduce dropout rates.

Likely Voter Demographics


49/50


Likely Voter Demographics

46% Men

54% Women

Length of Time in Oakland

Less than 2

years (4%)

2-5 years

(13%)

6-10 years

(14%)

11-20 years

(18%)

More than

20 years

(51%)

Work in Oakland 29%

Employed elsewhere 24%Unemployed 8%

Retired 26%

Other 12%

68% Democrats

6% Republicans

26x% NPP/Others

47% are 18-49 years old

28% are 50-64

25% are over 65

White 49%

African-American 28%

Latino 8%

Chinese 4%

Other Asian/Pacific Islander 3%

Other 5%

C t tContactss


50/50

Contacts

Alex [email protected]

510.550.8920

David [email protected]

510.451.9521

Contactss

Barbara Leslie

[email protected]

510. 874.4800
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]

chamber poll 2014

Documents