Challenges of Global Warming

Sanjay Vashist

For EPCO in Bhopal

Climate Change - The Phenomenon…

- greenhouse gases effect

Energy budget and greenhouse effect

The delicate balance

between the incoming short

wave (ultra violet) radiation

and the outgoing long wave

(infra red) radiation

maintains earth’s surface

temperature at a level

sufficient to support life on

the planet

Some gases (called greenhouse gases) present in the earth’s

atmosphere (in trace amounts) trap the outgoing radiation, raising

the temperature of the earth’s surface – the phenomenon is

commonly known as greenhouse effect

Causes of climate change

Causes of climate change

GHG emissions from

• Industrialization

• Urbanization

• Deforestation

• Land use changes

The targets cover emissions of the six main

greenhouse gases:

• Carbon dioxide (CO2);

• Methane (CH4);

• Nitrous oxide (N2O);

• Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs);

• Perfluorocarbons (PFCs); and

• Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6)

GHGs affected by human activities CO2 CH4 N2O HFC-23

Pre-industrial

concentration

About 290 ppm About 700 ppb About 270 ppb Zero

Concentration in

1998

365 ppm 1745 ppb 314 ppb 14 ppt

Rate of

concentration

change

1.5 ppm/yr 7.0 ppb/yra 0.8 ppb/yr 0.55 ppt/yr

Atmospheric

lifetime

5 to 200 yr 12 yr 114 yr 260 yr

Source: climate change 2001, The Scientific Basis, Technical Summary of the Working

Group/Report

Climate change signals:

Global mean temperature has increased by

0.740C

Decrease in snow cover and ice extent

10 % reduction in snow cover since late 1960s

10 -15 % reduction in spring/ summer ice content since

1950s

10 – 20 cm rise in global sea level

Impacts of climate change

Global mean temperatures are rising faster

with time… Warmest 12 years:1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000

100 0.0740.018

50 0.1280.026

Impacts of 1-m sea level rise

TERI (1996)

TERI

Key impacts as a function of increasing global

average temperature change

Impacts of climate change

• Natural and human systems are both vulnerable to

climate change

─ Agriculture, water resources, coastal areas, forests,

biodiversity, infrastructure

• Those with the least resources have the least

capacity to adapt and are the most vulnerable

─ Reliance on climate-sensitive activities

─ Weak technical, institutional, and financial capacity

• Disproportionate effects on developing countries

and poor in all countries

Floods in Europe

Gangotri Glacier Receding

April 2008

Imja Glacial lake

Imja Glacial lake

Source: IPCC

Eradicate Extreme Poverty and Hunger

• Substantial losses predicted for rainfed wheat

• 0.5o C rise in winter temperatures to reduce wheat yield by 0.45 t/ ha

• (Present average yield of wheat ~ 2.6 t/ ha)

• Besides yields impacts on production area also likely

• Loss of cultivated land and nursery areas for fishery/ aquaculture activity

in coastal low-lying regions

• Gross per capita water availability to decline from 1820 m3/ yr in 2001 to

1140 m3/yr in 2050

Ensure Environmental Sustainability

Very likely that hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation

events will continue to become more frequent

Likely that future tropical cyclones will become more intense, with larger

peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation

– less confidence in decrease of total number

Extra-tropical storm tracks projected to move poleward with

consequent changes in wind, precipitation, and temperature patterns

Global Partnership for Development

4-5° Celsius rise is estimated to result in 5 metre sea level rise

Coastal area inundated, droughts, monsoon variability

125 million climate migrants: 75 million from Bangladesh, 50 million from India

This is the equivalent of 375 times the number of people displaced by the SardarSarovar Dam, whom we have failed to rehabilitate properly as yet.

Inland cities like Hyderabad, Delhi, Bangalore will experience influx of migrants

Vulnerable Region Migrant Levels in 2100

West Bengal ~100 Lakhs

Coastal Maharashtra

(around Mumbai)

~100-120 lakhs

Coastal Tamil Nadu ~100 lakhs

Coastal Andhra Pradesh ~60 lakhs

Gujarat ~55 lakhs

Coastal Orissa ~40 lakhs

Western Rajasthan ~14 lakhs

Northern Karnataka ~13 lakhs

Madhya Pradesh ~12 lakhs

Interior Maharashtra ~10 lakhs

Northern Andhra Pradesh ~10 lakhs

Southern Bihar ~10 lakhs

Source: Greenpeace

Where will the BAU take us?

Ozone Depletion vs. Global Warming

Ozone depletion - a steady decline of about 4% per decade in the total

volume of ozone in Earth's stratosphere (the ozone layer), creating

ozone hole. Ozone Protects against - harmful UVB wavelengths (280–

315 nm) of ultraviolet light

Montreal Protocol that bans the

production of CFCs, halons, and

other ozone-depleting chemicals

Ozone Depletion Global Warming

• Is all about creating a gap in

Earth Stratosphere

• The damage is reparable

through adequate measures

• No issue of Equity and North-

South Divide

• International Treaty to be

implemented by corporates

sufficed

• Technological alternate was

found in time to be adopted by

manufacturers

• Is about trapping extra heat in

the Earth atmosphere

• Affect the basis of life on earth –

Sea, land and water

• Damage is irreversible and thus

adaptation is must.

• Impacting poor and their

livelihood, thus whom to save

first is a key question?

• International negotiations deals

with very complex agenda

ethics, mitigation, adaptation,

finance and technology

• Technological breakthrough is

still awaited

Questions ?