Challenges . . . Challenges . . . Managing Labour Deficit / SurplusManaging Labour Deficit / Surplus

Pace of Construction InvestmentPace of Construction Investment Retirement RatesRetirement Rates Worker AvailabilityWorker Availability Performance of Other SectorsPerformance of Other Sectors Regional RealitiesRegional Realities National StandardsNational Standards Government Policies Government Policies World EventsWorld Events ProductivityProductivity etc . . . . .etc . . . . .

Challenges . . . Challenges . . .

Source: Registered Apprenticeship Information System

•According to the Canadian Apprenticeship Forum less than 20% of employers According to the Canadian Apprenticeship Forum less than 20% of employers provide apprenticeship trainingprovide apprenticeship training

Construction educators and trainers include:Construction educators and trainers include:

Industry (80% of apprenticeship on-the-job)Industry (80% of apprenticeship on-the-job)

Joint Training Trust FundsJoint Training Trust Funds

Community Colleges and UniversitiesCommunity Colleges and Universities

Construction Associations (Local or Regional)Construction Associations (Local or Regional)

Trade Contractor AssociationsTrade Contractor Associations

Provincial Construction Safety AssociationsProvincial Construction Safety Associations

Labour GroupsLabour Groups

Private TrainersPrivate Trainers

Owners (User of Construction Services)Owners (User of Construction Services)

SuppliersSuppliers

In most cases, they work in isolation In most cases, they work in isolation

Challenges . . . Challenges . . .

Why LMI is Important . . . Why LMI is Important . . . Anticipate the demand for Construction ServicesAnticipate the demand for Construction Services

Where are the “hot spots” Getting better demand information Translating demand into worker requirements

Paint a “Realistic” Picture of Labour SupplyPaint a “Realistic” Picture of Labour Supply Demographics by trade and by province / region Define the supply of labour by province / region Understand the movement of labour

Target Supply Side SolutionsTarget Supply Side Solutions Replenishes supply of labour in an effective manner Youth, Aboriginals, Women, Immigrant Workers

Why LMI is Important . . . Why LMI is Important . . . Early warning system Early warning system

Labour supply demand forecasting toolLabour supply demand forecasting tool Proactive vs reactiveProactive vs reactive Time to implement short, medium, long term solutionsTime to implement short, medium, long term solutions

Decision making toolDecision making tool

Alternative scenarios, impact analysisAlternative scenarios, impact analysis

Venue for industry discussionVenue for industry discussion

Create common understanding of labour marketCreate common understanding of labour market

Collaborative solutionsCollaborative solutions

Issues cannot be resolved by one groupIssues cannot be resolved by one group Takes effort of all stakeholdersTakes effort of all stakeholders

Why LMI is Important . . . Why LMI is Important . . . With local / regional participation, established LMI With local / regional participation, established LMI

Program to provide industry with better Program to provide industry with better information on the demand for and supply of information on the demand for and supply of skilled labour: skilled labour:

LMI is the LMI is the cornerstonecornerstone of the CSC’s activity: of the CSC’s activity:• Identify training requirementsIdentify training requirements

• Anticipate and plan for tight labour marketsAnticipate and plan for tight labour markets

• Increase apprenticeship enrollments and completions Increase apprenticeship enrollments and completions

• Facilitate worker mobilityFacilitate worker mobility

• Identify sources of labour across the countryIdentify sources of labour across the country

• Influence labour market policyInfluence labour market policy

• Drives work of CSCDrives work of CSC

CSC LMI ProgramCSC LMI Program Currently, the Construction Sector Currently, the Construction Sector

Council produces an annual Council produces an annual construction labour requirements construction labour requirements forecast:forecast:

9 year time horizon9 year time horizon 32 trades / occupations32 trades / occupations

For each province:For each province: Economic and investment outlookEconomic and investment outlook Construction activity Construction activity Construction Employment requirementsConstruction Employment requirements Rank labour availability Rank labour availability

Example of requests for LMI data:Example of requests for LMI data:

Syncrude, Shell, Suncor, CNRLSyncrude, Shell, Suncor, CNRL Carpenters Training Centre in New BrunswickCarpenters Training Centre in New Brunswick Alberta GovernmentAlberta Government Citizenship and ImmigrationCitizenship and Immigration Algonquin CollegeAlgonquin College 2010 Winter Olympics, B.C. Whistler 2010 Winter Olympics, B.C. Whistler Manitoba HydroManitoba Hydro B.C. HydroB.C. Hydro

““Looking for workers in our backyard is not good enough anymore”Looking for workers in our backyard is not good enough anymore”

““Workforce availability is the biggest risk factor in undertaking major projects”Workforce availability is the biggest risk factor in undertaking major projects”

CSC LMI ProgramCSC LMI Program

LMI Forecasting LMI Forecasting Components of the program:Components of the program:

32 trades and occupations

15 regions in Canada (10 provinces and 5 Ontario regions)

Employment, labour force, excess supply

Construction and other industries

Statistics Canada Census data (LFS monitoring)

Labour Supply

Labour Demand, including

Expansion demand Replacement demand

LMI Forecasting LMI Forecasting Key Elements of the Forecasting Tool:Key Elements of the Forecasting Tool: Provincial/regional approach – matches the provincial/regional structure of

the construction labour market. Regional Network of LMI – committees comprised of key industry and

government stakeholders tasked with bringing regional realities to the forecast.

Mid term and long term forecast – facilitates planning and the development of supply side solutions.

Macro economic outlook - the construction forecast is grounded in the context of a broader economic forecast.

Construction investment outlook –derived from provincial/regional major project information vetted by provincial/regional stakeholders (Coefficients: Employment Per $Million Real Expenditures).

Supply side tracking – builds on the data provided through traditional data sources bringing a greater degree of accuracy.

Labour requirement assessment – provides a quantitative and qualitative analysis of labour requirements for 32 trades/occupations.

LMI ForecastingLMI Forecasting Process Steps:Process Steps:

Collect and analyze major project informationCollect and analyze major project information

Conduct industry consultationConduct industry consultation

Set economic scenario assumptionsSet economic scenario assumptions

Create economic scenariosCreate economic scenarios

Set trades assumptionsSet trades assumptions

Produce trades scenariosProduce trades scenarios

Conduct demand-supply balance assessmentConduct demand-supply balance assessment

Disseminate resultsDisseminate results

LMI ForecastingLMI Forecasting Regional Network of Labour Market Information CommitteesRegional Network of Labour Market Information Committees

Provincial, regional, local Comprised of labour, contractors, owners, governments,

educators and trainers Roles and responsibilities include:

reviewing / commenting on macroeconomic assumptions

establishing regional major projects lists for non-residential sectors

compiling, information on housing starts and renovation activity

reviewing and validating forecasts to ensure they reflect regional realities

assisting in defining the labour supply relationships (training, demographics, measuring replacement demand, labour mobility)

determining whether trades need further analysis

assisting in the preparation of the final report

LMI ForecastingLMI Forecasting

Demand Supply

Balance

CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRYCONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY OTHER INDUSTRIESOTHER INDUSTRIES

Demand Supply

Balance

Total Balance

Excess Trades Trades Shortage

LMI ForecastingLMI Forecasting

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Region A Region B Region C Region D Region E

Market

Un

em

plo

ym

en

t R

ate

Market with unemployment below the natural rate will

attract workers from other markets

Mobility Across Adjacent Labour MarketsMobility Across Adjacent Labour Markets

LMI ForecastingLMI Forecasting Labour Market RankingsLabour Market Rankings

Scale of 1 (excess supply) through 5 (excess Scale of 1 (excess supply) through 5 (excess demand) summarizes the market conditionsdemand) summarizes the market conditions

Regional Rankings are a weighted average of Regional Rankings are a weighted average of four measuresfour measures

1. Estimated unemployment rate relative to natural unemployment rate

2. Employment Growth

3. Replacement demand as a % of the Labour Force

4. Industry Survey

The potential for mobility signals possible The potential for mobility signals possible changes in provincial / regional rankingschanges in provincial / regional rankings

LMI ForecastingLMI ForecastingMarket Conditions Ranking by Trade Market Conditions Ranking by Trade

1 (excess supply) to 5 (excess demand)1 (excess supply) to 5 (excess demand)

LMI ForecastingLMI Forecasting Requests for more details are a priority Requests for more details are a priority

for the CSCfor the CSC

Trade / occupational breakdowns, in some cases, do not meet industry needs

Industry participants requested that more detail be developed around labour supply and demand

LMI ForecastingLMI Forecasting Workforce Forecasting Tools available to the Workforce Forecasting Tools available to the

construction industry:construction industry:

Construction Owners Association of AlbertaConstruction Owners Association of Alberta Best Practices Annual Workforce Supply / Demand Forecast Best Practices Annual Workforce Supply / Demand Forecast

Commission de la Construction du Québec Commission de la Construction du Québec Annual Construction Workforce Forecasting Model by Annual Construction Workforce Forecasting Model by

RegionRegion

ResourceResource from the Construction Sector Council from the Construction Sector Council Construction Looking Forward – Labour Requirements for Construction Looking Forward – Labour Requirements for

Canada and the Provinces 2007-2015Canada and the Provinces 2007-2015