challenges for africa in an age of global …...dar es salaam, tanzania. 1 march 2017. africa’s...
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CHALLENGES FOR AFRICA IN AN AGE OF GLOBAL EMPLOYMENT DEINDUSTRIALIZATION:
IMPLICATIONS FOR TANZANIA
David TschirleyPresented at the 3rd Annual Agricultural Policy ConferenceDar es Salaam, Tanzania1 March 2017
Africa’s AgrifoodSystem
Transformation
Africa’s AgrifoodSystem
Transformation
Global Deindustrialization
Africa’s AgrifoodSystem
Transformation
Global Deindustrialization
African Employment?
Africa’s agrifood system transformation
Food is becoming more purchased …
Food is becoming more purchased …
More perishable…
Food is becoming more purchased …
More perishable…
More processed & prepared…
Food is becoming more purchased …
More perishable…
More processed & prepared…A Diet Transformation
… which will (need to) drive other transformations …
… large farms … … and small farms
Science applied to…
Agribusiness orientationat large scale…
… and small scale
Reaching consumers throughmodern retail …
… and improved traditionalretail
… all of which will be heavily influenced by public policy and investment
Private Investment
PublicPolicy
PublicInvestment
IMPLICATIONS FOR …
NutritionEnergy and water use
EmploymentSkill needsPublic policy
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0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
Non-AFS Farming, ownand wage
labor
Foodmanufacturing
Marketing andtransport
Foodpreparationaway from
home
Shar
e of
all
jobs
Baseline scenario projection of jobs in East and Southern Africa, 2010 to 2040
2010 2040
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
Non-AFS Farming, ownand wage
labor
Foodmanufacturing
Marketing andtransport
Foodpreparationaway from
home
Shar
e of
all
jobs
Baseline scenario projection of jobs in East and Southern Africa, 2010 to 2040
2010 2040
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
Non-AFS Farming, ownand wage
labor
Foodmanufacturing
Marketing andtransport
Foodpreparationaway from
home
Shar
e of
all
jobs
Baseline scenario projection of jobs in East and Southern Africa, 2010 to 2040
2010 2040
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
Food manufacturing Marketing and transport Food preparation awayfrom home
Shar
e of
all
jobs
Baseline scenario projection of jobs in East and Southern Africa, 2010 to 2040
2010 2040
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
Non-AFS Farming, ownand wage
labor
Foodmanufacturing
Marketing andtransport
Foodpreparationaway from
home
Shar
e of
all
jobs
Baseline scenario projection of jobs in East and Southern Africa, 2010 to 2040
2010 2040
Africa’s AgrifoodSystem
Transformation
Global Deindustrialization
African Employment?
Global deindustrialization
HOW HAVE COUNTRIES GOT RICH IN THE PAST?
HOW HAVE COUNTRIES GOT RICH IN THE PAST?
#1: Moving to cities
HOW HAVE COUNTRIES GOT RICH IN THE PAST? (2)
HOW HAVE COUNTRIES GOT RICH IN THE PAST? (2)
#2: Making things(manufacturing)
WHAT THIS DID
Facilitated rapid rises in labor productivity
Provided stable, secure employment
Facilitated delivery of social benefits
WHAT’S HAPPENING TODAY?
WHAT’S HAPPENING TODAY?
~ $12,000 pc, 22% share
WHAT’S HAPPENING TODAY?
~ $4,000 pc, 18% share
~ $12,000 pc, 22% share
WHAT’S DRIVING THIS?Factor of 1,000 every 15 years
WHAT’S DRIVING THIS?Factor of 1,000 every 15 years
Constantly improving precision
WHAT’S DRIVING THIS?Factor of 1,000 every 15 years
Constantly improving precision
Everything we do is now data
WHAT’S DRIVING THIS?Factor of 1,000 every 15 years
Constantly improving precision
Everything we do is now data
Ever-smarter machines
WHAT’S DRIVING THIS? And global trade spreads effects around the world
Ever-smarter machines
WHAT’S DRIVING THIS? And global trade spreads effects around the world
WHY DOES THIS MATTER?
African labor coming off farm now going largely into self-employed services
IssuesHow to raise labor productivity? The technology elevatorHow to enhance the stability and security of employment? Formal services might also do thisHow to deliver social benefits
How to move ahead?
Global Market
Global Market
Tanzania
Global Market
Tanzania
Tanzania
Global Market
Tanzania
Global Market
Tanzania
Global Market
A large and rapidly growing local and regional market …
Global Market
… with similar economies
Global Market
Tanzania
Global Market
Tanzania
Global Market
Tanzania
Global Market
Tanzania
Global Market
Tanzania
Global Market
Tanzania
Global Market
Tanzania
Global Market
Tanzania
Global Market
Tanzania and its neighbors need a radical commitment to regional trade
if they hope to industrialize
Tanzania
Global MarketTheir markets are too small otherwise
Tanzania
Global MarketTheir markets are too small otherwise
Competitiveness will be impossible
Tanzania
Global MarketTheir markets are too small otherwise
Competitiveness will be impossible
Consumers will be harmed
Tanzania
Global MarketTheir markets are too small otherwise
Competitiveness will be impossible
Consumers will be harmed
Growth will not be sustainable
Tanzania
Global MarketRoads & railOne-stop borders
Harmonized norms & standardsCommitment to trade rules &
processesOthers …
Tanzania
Global MarketThese steps can drive some level of industrialization, employment
generation, and income growth …
Tanzania
Global MarketThese steps can drive some level of industrialization, employment
generation, and income growth …
… in and out of the agrifood system
Thank you!