ceo of ipk international library/gr...2002 also in india and japan in 1995 the travel monitor also...

IPK International - International Tourism Consulting Group, World Trave l Monitor Company 1

Berlin Message 2006Berlin Message 2006

by Rolf Freitagby Rolf FreitagCEO of IPK InternationalCEO of IPK International

Berlin, 10 March 2006Berlin, 10 March 2006in coin co --operation with ITB operation with ITB


My Mission Today Is:My Mission Today Is:

�To inform you about the latest travel trends around the globe

� and to give you some back up for your work in 2006, maybe even beyond


-IPK International is realizing every year

- nearly one million interviews

Our continuous monitoring system has become the Leading Travel Survey Worldwide

Why Does IPK International Why Does IPK International Know World Travel Trends?Know World Travel Trends?


… only European outbound travel was surveyed

� 400,000 representative interviews p.a.

� in all 36 European countries of origin

� concerning European travel to the World

In The Early YearsIn The Early Years ……


since …

� 1995 in North America

� 2000 in China and Oil-Arabia

� 2001 in Latin America

� 2001 in Korea and South East Asia

� 2002 also in India and Japan

In 1995 The Travel MonitorIn 1995 The Travel MonitorAlso Went OverseasAlso Went Overseas


IPKIPK’’ss World Travel Monitor ThatWorld Travel Monitor That ’’ss

� One Database To Cover The Entire World

� Utilizing a standardized questionnaire in all 54

countries of origin

� to ensure global comparability


Today there are more than 6,000,000 representative interviews in our World Travel Monitor Databank from 54 countries of origin throughout Europe, the Americas and Asia-Pacific updated every year.

A Premium Global Travel DatabaseA Premium Global Travel Database


- Global Overview 2005

- European Overview 2005

- German Overview 2005

- Travel Forecast 2006

What will be myBerliner Message today?


Global Market Overview 2005Global Market Overview 2005


� Terror in Asia, Arabia and Europe

� Natural disasters in Asia and in The Americas

� Humid summer in parts of Europe

� Weak economies in some parts of Europe

� Ongoing weak USD vs. EUR

General Conditions 2005 General Conditions 2005


� Booming economies in Asia

� Good economy in The Americas

� Good performance in Eastern Europe

� Robust consumer travel confidence

� Worldwide ongoing low fare boom

On The Other HandOn The Other Hand


World Travel Performance 2005World Travel Performance 2005

After three years of crisis and a “Super Recovery” in 2004,

last year was just a good year for World Tourism


+ 5%

+ 4%

+ 7%

Nights: 5,700 Million

Spending: 750 Billion €

Trips: 808 Million

World World OutboundOutbound Performance 2005 Performance 2005

Source: World Travel Monitor, 2005 and UNWTO, Madri d


Worldwide Inbound Performance Worldwide Inbound Performance 19951995--20052005

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

millo

n

Long term global travel growth: + 4%p.a.


Sales Trend 2004/2005Sales Trend 2004/2005By Destination AreasBy Destination Areas

Europe + 5%Americas + 11%Asia Pacific + 7%World + 7%

Destination

+ 1%+ 5%+ 2%+ 2 %

Turnover Revenue per guest

Source: UNWTO, Madrid


� 2005 tourism was more than ever “Big Business”

� “Big Business” came from more tourists

� After inflation spending per trip was stagnatingin Europe and Asia

World Tourism Turnover: + 7%World Tourism Turnover: + 7%


+7%

+6%

+5%

+10%

World +5%

World Inbound Performance 2005 World Inbound Performance 2005


The The Americas + 6%Americas + 6%

Inbound Performance: The AmericasInbound Performance: The Americas 20052005

North America + 4%

Caribbean + 5%

Central America + 14%

South America + 12%


All Afrika + 10%All Afrika + 10%

North Africa + 6%

Subsahara + 13%

Inbound Performance: Africa 2005Inbound Performance: Africa 2005


InboundInbound Performance: Europe 2005Performance: Europe 2005

All Europe + 5%All Europe + 5%

Northern Europe +7%

Central Western Europe +3%

Central Eastern Europe +4%

Southern Europe +6%


Northeast Asia +10%

Oceania + 4%

Southeast Asia +4%South Asia + 4%

Inbound Performance: Asia Inbound Performance: Asia -- Oceania 2005Oceania 2005

All All AsiaAsia + 7%+ 7%


Global Growth Driver No. 1Global Growth Driver No. 1

� was the ongoing positive reaction of the traveldemand to every increase in wealth



� were the rapidly spreading Low Fare offersaround the entire globe



� are the rapidly spreading Internet offersmaking the entire globe transparent and easy to book



� were again the newcomers in Asia, now led by Korea, China and India


� The impact in Southeast Asia was heavy

� Situation is improving month by month

� Tourism has not yet reached pre-Tsunami levels

� Main victims are still the Maldives and Indonesia

How Were Tsunami Victim How Were Tsunami Victim Countries DoingCountries Doing ??


European Outbound Travel in 2005European Outbound Travel in 2005

Source: European Travel Monitor, 2005


+ 4%

+ 2%

+ 5%

Nights: 3,5 Billion

Turnover: 330 Billion €

Trips: 370 Million

Despite Problems EuropeanDespite Problems EuropeanOutbound Did Well Outbound Did Well In 2005In 2005



Performance 2005

Again It Was More A Short Trip BoomAgain It Was More A Short Trip Boom

Short trips (1-3 N) +10%

Longer trips (4+ N) + 2%

Source: European Travel Monitor, 2005 – All Trips

IPK International - International Tourism Consulting Group, World Trave l Monitor Company

GrowthGrowth 2005 In 2005 In OutboundOutboundResulted Above All FromResulted Above All From ::

UK + 1.7 million trips

Netherlands + 0.7 million trips

Russia + 1.7 million trips

Germany + 1.8 million trips

France + 1.8 million trips

Spain + 1.6 million trips



Once More European Boom Once More European Boom Was Driven ByWas Driven By Air TravelAir Travel

Reason:

- Cheap flights / low cost carriers

- Many inexpensive new connections

2004

> Flight trips + 14%> Ground trips ± 0%

2005

+ 7%+ 1%



Traditional flights + 1%

Low fare flights + 28%

All outbound flight trips + 7%

And What About Low Fare Flights?And What About Low Fare Flights?

Trend2005

Market Share2005 2004

67% 76%

33% 24%

100% 100%



Strong Winter, Moderate SummerStrong Winter, Moderate Summer 20052005

Sep-Dec+ 3%

Jan-Apr + 7%

May-Aug+ 3%



European European HolidayHoliday Types: Types: Top Four Growth Segments in 2005Top Four Growth Segments in 2005

Winners 2005


City+ 6.6 million+ 20%

Sun&Beach+ 2.3 million+ 3%


European European HolidayHoliday Types: Types: Top Four Growth Segments in 2005Top Four Growth Segments in 2005


Winners 2005

Snow+ 1.1 million+ 12%

Summer Mountain+ 0.8 million+ 8%


TraditionalTraditional TradeTrade Services Services Have Lost Have Lost Further Market Share In 2005Further Market Share In 2005

Source: European Travel Monitor, 2005 - Outbound Holi day Trips

42

Old Trade

New Trade

No Pre-Booking44%

29%27% - 10%

+ 25%

+ 6%


Online booking 30% + 35%

Online information 15% + 1%

All Internet users 45% + 22%

Non-Internet users 55% - 5%

MS 04/05

3030% Of European% Of European OutboundOutbound Holiday TripsHoliday TripsWere Booked Were Booked „„ OnlineOnline ““ In 2005In 2005



German Travel In 2005German Travel In 2005

Source: Deutscher Reisemonitor, 2005


German Travel Market: German Travel Market: 36,000 36,000 Interviews Interviews

� With its 36,000 interviews per year, World Travel Monitor is also in Germany the largest travel surve y

� Interviews are conducted weekly throughout the entire year


Trips 282 million + 3%

Domestic 206 million

+ 2%

+ 3%

Outbound 76 million


The German Travel Market In 2005The German Travel Market In 2005Trips 1N+ Trips 1N+


German Trips German Trips By Purpose Of Trip In 2005By Purpose Of Trip In 2005

47%

40%

13%

Holiday trips

Other Leisure

Business trips

+ 3% �

+ 1% �

+ 6% �



More Domestic Or MoreMore Domestic Or MoreOutbound Trips In 2005?Outbound Trips In 2005?

� 64 billion € OutboundSpending (53%)

� 676 million Outboundovernights (47%)

� 56 billion € DomesticSpending (47%)

� 736 million Domesticovernights (53%)




79 Million Holidays Within Germany79 Million Holidays Within Germany

34 MillionLong DomesticHolidays

Trend - 4%

45 MillionShort DomesticHolidays

Trend + 8%


55 Million Outbound Holidays In 200555 Million Outbound Holidays In 2005

Rank Destination Share Trend

1 Spain 16% + 5%

2 Austria 14% + 2%

4 France 7% - 4%

5 Turkey 7% + 8%

6 Netherlands 4% - 6%

7 Greece 3% - 3%

… Asia Pacific 3% + 4%

Americas 4% + 8%Source: Deutscher Reisemonitor, 2005

3 Italy 13% - 2%


Can One Sell Online Holidays To Germans?Can One Sell Online Holidays To Germans?

26% online booking + 35%

57% no internet use + 0%

43% internet use +12%

17% information seeking - 10%

Source: Deutscher Reisemonitor, 2005 - Only Holidays Abroad


How Will World Travel Year 2006 FareHow Will World Travel Year 2006 Fare ??


Every year, in early November some 60 leadingtravel and tourism researchers

� from all continents

� as well as from the UNWTO, PATA ETC, and other international organizations

� meet for a confidential three-day workshop in a little 15th century palace near Pisa

World Travel Monitor Forum World Travel Monitor Forum IIn Pisa n Pisa


World Travel Monitor Forum World Travel Monitor Forum IIn Pisa n Pisa


The Pisa-Meeting aims to assemble the

results of the most important tourism studies

of the year undertaken in the world

together with the latest results

from IPK´s World Travel Monitor

Who Attends Who Attends The Pisa MeetingThe Pisa Meeting ??


Due to IPK’s Pisa-initiative a global tourism resea rchplatform has originated

- which is able to give a sound overview of latest t ravel trends

- and to elaborate a well working forecast for the coming year

Pisa Meeting: a global future workshop


World Economy Has Entered In Its World Economy Has Entered In Its Fifth Fifth Year Of The New Year Of The New Growth CycleGrowth Cycle

(Percent change in real GDP)

The World economy is in recession when real GDP gro wth is below 2%.

Source: Global Insight, Philadelphia and IPK Intern ational, Munich

0

1

2

3

4

5

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006


And What About Europe 2006?And What About Europe 2006?

� The economies in Western Europe

have not yet recovered

� Unemployment will remain high in

many countries

� Whilst Germany is slowly coming back,

other countries could slide into reces-

sion


0,7

0,8

0,9

1,0

1,1

1,2

1,3

1,4

1,5

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

(Dollars per euro)

The Euro Will Continue To Be StrongThe Euro Will Continue To Be Strong

Source: Department of Commerce, Washington


GfKGfK --Indicator EUROIndicator EURO --Climate Climate ––Willingness To BuyWillingness To Buy

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Great Britain

Spain

Germany

France

Italy

Source: GfK Marktforschung, Nürnberg


� In 2006 Germany will host the FIFA Football World Championship

� Will travel to Germany explode in 2006 and maybe also in the following years?

Football World CupFootball World Cup 2006 2006


- Short Holidays +96%- Longer Holidays + 1%

- 18%+ 24%

- In the year of the event a short trip boom, but no big business

- In the year after the event good holiday business c ame back

LetLet ’’s Learn From Athens Olympic s Learn From Athens Olympic Experience in 2004Experience in 2004

Olympic Games in Athens in 2004

2004 2005


Will Avian Flu Kill Travel Business 2006?Will Avian Flu Kill Travel Business 2006?


? ? Apocalypse NowApocalypse Now ??


� For pharmaceutic producers

� For pharmaceutic researchers

� For the media

Avian Flu Has Become Big BusinessAvian Flu Has Become Big Business


? ? Apocalypse For Travel Apocalypse For Travel Business ??

No, not at all


IPKIPK’’ss Magic Growth Formula 2006Magic Growth Formula 2006

G = 1.5 × ∆ Y *T


Transparency Transparency ExplosiinExplosiin Will Will Change Travel Flows 2006Change Travel Flows 2006

T = I * € * O


The ITB Berlin Message 2006The ITB Berlin Message 2006

This year our Berlin Message is:This year our Berlin Message is:Despite Avian Flu and slightly Despite Avian Flu and slightly slowing economic performance slowing economic performance World Travel will increase byWorld Travel will increase by

+3 to + 4%+3 to + 4%


http://[email protected]

Thank You For Your AttentionThank You For Your Attention


Last week IPK International has realized on behalf of German National Tourism Organization a representative survey concerning the potential impact of avian flu on German travel behavior in 2006

Last Weeks DZT Survey ResultsLast Weeks DZT Survey Results


Avian flu could have some impact on behavior

12% impact on food buying 6% impact on health behavior 6% impact on travel behavior

* Multiple Answers (Impacts) possible


� 0.7% don‘t intend to travel because of the flu� 2% want to wait (no decision yet)� 3% plan to avoid avian flu destinations

* Multiple Answers (Impacts) possible

But only very little impact on travel !!But only very little impact on travel !!

ceo of ipk international library/gr...2002 also in india and japan in 1995 the travel monitor also...

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