dCentral Coast – What’s the Housing Demand?Population Forecast At the 2016 Census, the Central Coast had a population of 327,736. The

population of the region grew overall by 15,551 or 5.0% between 2011 and 2016. In 2016, the Aboriginal population of the Central Coast was 12,487 or 3.8% of the

total – compared to 2.9% for NSW as a whole. The Department of Planning, Industry and Environment (DPIE) have prepared

population and household projections for all of the local government areas in NSW. DPIE projects a population of 415,050 for the Central Coast by 2036.

That represents an increase of 87,314 in population.

Age The median age of the Central Coast population at 2016 is 42 (compared to 36 in

Sydney and 43 in the Rest of NSW). At the 2016 Census, Central Coast had a very similar age profile to the Rest of

NSW, with 18.4% of the population aged 0-14, 11.6% aged 15-24, 22.8% aged 25-44, 26.2% aged 45-64, 11.2% aged 65-74, 6.6% aged 75-84 and 3.1% frail aged (85 +).

The profile for Central Coast varies from that of Sydney, with Sydney having a higher proportion of those aged 15-24 (13.0%) and 25-44 (30.5%) and lower proportions of those aged over 45. The graph below depicts the age profile for the Central Coast, Sydney, Rest of NSW and NSW.

.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

The Department of Planning, Industry and the Environment has predicted an increase in all age groups between 2016, with the exception of the 55-59 age cohort, which they predict to decline by 2.5%.

DPIE projections show the largest increases for older age groups, particularly those in the 80-84 cohort (96.8%), 85+ (88.6%), 75-79 (84.0%), 70-74 (49.5%) and 65-69 (24.4%)

These changes indicate an increased need for housing that is accessible and appropriate, especially for the needs of this maturing population.

In 2015, over 85% of older Australians lived in private dwellings, with 73% of them owning their own home. 6.6% were in residential accommodation and 6.6% lived in 'other non-private dwellings' such as caravan parks and self-care units in retirement villages. Older Australians strongly prefer to age in place. However, for some, age-specific housing options provide more integrated accommodation and care, offer a way to release home equity, and may delay entry into residential aged care.

Although the majority of older Australians own their own home, about 15% of older Australians are renters, and these people are generally a highly vulnerable and economically disadvantaged group, with older women being the fastest growing demographic of people experiencing homelessness. There is therefore a need for more adaptable, accessible dwellings, well located, secure, low maintenance and affordable to meet the needs of seniors and frail aged in particular, within their communities. Those most in need are households in the private rental market, who struggle to afford housing on an Aged Pension or inadequate superannuation1.

The Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI) has undertaken research on “What is the ideal home for older Australians?” :

o “Older Australians and the housing aspirations gap” ando “Understanding the housing aspirations of older Australians”

This research is part of a broader study on “Housing aspirations and constraints for lower income Australians.” AHURI’s research demonstrates that one of the most valued aspects of older residents housing is the location – that the neighbourhood feels safe and secure; that there is good (including walkable) access to services such as health, shopping, recreational amenities, public open space; and that it is close to family and friends.

Household Type At the 2016 Census, couple family with children were the largest household type

in the Central Coast, comprising 28.3% of households, followed by couples (25.2%), lone person households (25.1%) and one parent families (12.7%). Couple and lone person households comprise 50.3% of all households while families comprise 41% (group households make up 2.9% and other household types a further 5.8% of all households).

1 "Housing Decisions of Older Australians" Productivity Commission December 2015.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

Central Coast has a very low proportion of group households (2.9%) compared to Sydney (6.9%) and Rest of NSW (8.0%) but otherwise has a fairly similar household type composition to the Rest of NSW.

The graph below shows the proportion of household types at the 2016 Census for Central Coast, Sydney, Rest of NSW and NSW.

Aboriginal households show a different pattern. In 2016 in the Central Coast there were mainly one couple families with children (34.0% higher than the proportion in Central Coast as a whole), one parent families (26.5%, which is more than double that for the total population in Central Coast) and couple families with no children (16.1%, much lower than the total population), lone person households (11.5% also much lower than the total population) and 4.9% group households (higher than proportion for the total Central Coast).

Department of Planning, Industry and the Environment projections until 2036 indicate that lone person households as a proportion of the total will increase most strongly, followed by couple only households and couple with children households.

This suggests the need for an increasing diversity of bedroom mix, including more studio (bedsit), one and two bedroom homes to suit different household sizes as the number and proportion of smaller household types increases in the Central Coast.

The graph below uses DPIE data to show their projected change in key household types for the Central Coast to 2036.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

Household Size Average household size in the Central Coast has remained steady at 2.5 persons

per household from the 2001 Census to the 2016 Census. At 2016 Sydney had an average household size of 2.8 (up from 2.7 in 2011) and the Rest of NSW had an average household size of 2.4 (down from 2.7 in 2001).

Department of Planning, Industry and the Environment projections suggest that by 2036 average household size in the Central Coast will decline to 2.3 persons per household. However, declining housing affordability may slow this process due to its impact on household formation rates, with adult children living at home longer and an increase in group households, endeavouring to manage housing costs.

The table below shows average household size for the Central Coast, Sydney, Rest of NSW and NSW from 2001 to 2016.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

Area

Average Household Size 2001

Average Household Size 2006

Average Household Size 2011

Average Household Size 2016

Central Coast 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5Sydney 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8Rest of NSW 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.4NSW 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6

DCJ Local Government Housing Kit Database- Source: ABS, Analysis FACS.

Income Low income households predominate in the Central Coast, comprising 52.0% of

all households. Moderate income households make up 22.3% while high income households comprise 25.7%.

Central Coast has a much higher proportion of low income households than both Sydney (39.4%) and the Rest of NSW (48.0%).

Central Coast also has a higher proportion of moderate income households than both Sydney (20.2%) and the Rest of NSW (21.4%),

This means that it has a much lower proportion of high income households than is the case for Sydney (40.3%) and Rest of NSW (30.6%).

The table below illustrates this, and shows Shoalhaven to have the highest proportion of low income households.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

The number of low income households increased between 2006 and 2016 in the Central Coast by 5.9% from 59,423 in 2006 to 62,921 in 2016. This is in line with the trend in Sydney and the Rest of NSW.

Similarly, low income rental households increase in the Central Coast between 2006 and 2016. While low income households in general increase by 5.9% between 2006 and 2016, low income rental households increased by 24.0% over the same period. Clearly low income rental households are increasing more rapidly than low income households generally, although most of the increase in low income rental households occurred between 2006 and 2011. Again the increase in low income rental households is in line with the trend for Sydney (which experienced a 31.1% increase between 2006 and 2016) and NSW (an increase of 24.7%).

The graph below shows the increase in low income rental households in the Central Coast.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

Industry Structure The industry structure of the Central Coast is dominated by health care and

social assistance (15%), construction (11%), retail trade (11%), education and training (8%) and accommodation and food services (8%). The following graph illustrates the industry profile.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

The Central Coast has a higher proportion of the population working in construction (11% compared to 8% in Sydney and 8.7% in the Rest of NSW) and retail trade (11% compared to 9% in Sydney and 10% in the Rest of NSW) and lower proportions working in agriculture, forestry and fishing than the Rest of NSW (1% compared to 5.7%), in professional, scientific and technical services than Sydney (5% compared with 9.6%) and financial and insurance services (3% compared to 6%).

The graph below shows the industry structure for each LGA in the region, indicating both commonalities and variations between the Central Coast, Sydney and the Rest of NSW.

The graph below provides an overview of the change in employment in the region from 2011 to 2016. It shows a significant decline in employment in manufacturing (2,760 fewer employed in this sector in 2016 compared to 2011), in line with the trend elsewhere in NSW. A further 1,093 were lost in wholesale trade, 932 in retail trade and 422 in transport, postal and warehousing.

Over the same period there has been strong growth in construction (an additional 3,143 employed in this sector), health care and social assistance (2,800), education and training (1,289) and accommodation and food services (1,106).

These changes can impact on the need for affordable housing. For example, workers in the accommodation and food services industry are amongst the lowest paid workers and they comprise 8% of the Central Coast workforce.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

Homelessness In NSW, the number of homeless people increased by 37% between 2011 and

2016. Note that the ABS definition of homelessness identifies a person as homeless where they do not have suitable accommodation alternatives and their current living arrangement:

o Is in a dwelling that is inadequate;o Has no tenure or their initial tenure is short and not extendable; oro Does not allow them to have control of and access to space for social

relations. A person is thus considered homelessness when they are living in improvised

dwellings, tents, sleeping out, supported accommodation, boarding houses, temporary lodgings, overcrowded dwellings or caravan parks.

The number of people sleeping rough in NSW increased by 35% from 2011 to 2016.

Severe overcrowding accounts for 45% of all homeless people in NSW. Severe overcrowding is where usual residents in the dwellings need four or more extra bedrooms to meet occupancy standards. The number of people in severely overcrowded dwellings in NSW increased by 74% from 2011 to 2016.

Adjusting for population growth, the rate of young people in the homeless population increased by 31% and there was a 24% increase in the rate for older people. The rate of homelessness is calculated per 10,000 population.

The table below shows the number of homeless people in the Central Coast region according to the 2011 and 2016 Census.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

AREA

All homeless persons 2011

All homeless persons 2016 change

% change

Central Coast 765 1,031 266 34.8NSW 28,194 37,692 9,498 33.7

The data indicates that homelessness has increased by 266 people or 34.8% between 2011 and 2016.

At the 2016 Census there were 177 Aboriginal residents of the Central Coast who were homeless, or 17.2% of the homeless population. Clearly Aboriginal residents are overrepresented in the homeless population in the Central Coast.

Additional DataMore detailed housing data and tables used in this Snapshot are available from the Local Government Housing Kit Database on the Department of Communities and Justice (DCJ) website at:

http://www.housing.nsw.gov.au/Centre+For+Affordable+Housing/NSW+Local+Government+Housing+Kit/Local+Government+Housing+Kit+Database/

More detailed information and resources on an Ageing Population is available on the Local Government NSW website, in the Resource for an Ageing Population:

http://www.lgnsw.org.au/policy/ageing

More detailed information on population, household and dwelling projections is available on the Department of Planning Industry and Environment website at:

http://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/en-us/deliveringhomes/populationandhouseholdprojections.aspx

More information on homelessness is available on the DCJ website at:

http://www.housing.nsw.gov.au/Help+with+Housing/Homelessness/

For more information/statistics on DCJ clients by DCJ districts:

http://www.facs.nsw.gov.au/facs-statistics

The Productivity Commission’s report Housing Decisions of Older Australians is at:

https://www.pc.gov.au/research/completed/housing-decisions-older-australians

www.facs.nsw.gov.au