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1/28/2015 Central Asia and the IndiaRussia Partnership | The Diplomat http://thediplomat.com/2015/01/centralasiaandtheindiarussiapartnership/?utm_content=bufferf50c8&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&ut… 1/2 age Credit: Presidential Press and Information Office, Kremlin Central Asia and the India-Russia Partnership Strategic realities in Central Asia are likely to see Russia and India returning to their historically strong ties. In order to counterbalance a hegemonic, unipolar global order dominated by the United States, former Russian Foreign Minister Yevgeniy Primakov proposed in the 1990s the creation of a “strategic triangle” between China, India and Russia. While ten years ago it briefly appeared that this ambitious endeavor might have been possible, the vastly divergent interests of the three powers have prevented such broad partnership. Now Russia is once again undertaking to strengthen its relations with China and India in what some have likened to Barack Obama’s own “pivot” toward Asia. A fullfledged cooperative arrangement between China, India and Russia, however, seems unlikely because of the three countries’ competing interests in Central Asia. Instead, Russia’s designs to become more integrated with Asia will possibly lead to a stronger IndoRussian relationship at the expense of a more solidified SinoRussian partnership. The feasibility of Russia making a full orientation toward Asia came under doubt even before the West imposed economic sanctions in response to the current crisis in Ukraine. Nevertheless, Vladimir Putin continues to develop his country’s ties with Asia’s rising powers, including summit meetings with both China and India. India and Russia, while not as close these days as they were during the Soviet era, have still maintained cooperative relations, which appear poised to grow stronger. China’s historically problematic relations with both India and Russia have improved in recent years, despite lingering problems in the SinoIndian relationship, including a festering border dispute, and continuing mutual distrust between China and Russia. Despite improved relations between the three countries and Russia’s recent steps toward the further development of relations with China and India, all three countries have competing interests in Central Asia. This is especially true of Chinese interests in Central Asia, which are more directly opposed to Indian and Russian regional imperatives than Indian and Russian interests are to each other. India wants to increase its leverage and influence in Central Asia, while Russia wishes to maintain and increase its predominant geopolitical stance. Yet India and Russia’s interests are currently not as diametrically opposed to each other as China’s interests are to both those of India and Russia. Russia, therefore, will most likely grow closer with India because China is the bigger threat to both India and Russia in Central Asia. Some may postulate that Russia will be able to bring China and India closer together. As Ankit Panda argues, however, Russia simply does not have the diplomatic leverage over Beijing or New Delhi to enact such an arrangement. India has begun to show greater interest in Central Asia, as political changes in Central Asia over the past 25 years have proven to be largely beneficial for India. The creation of five new countries after 1991, especially given the presence of wartorn Afghanistan and a hostile Pakistan, proved to be a source of “inspiration” for India. Today, India’s relationship By Anthony Rinna January 27, 2015

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  • 1/28/2015 CentralAsiaandtheIndiaRussiaPartnership|TheDiplomat

    http://thediplomat.com/2015/01/centralasiaandtheindiarussiapartnership/?utm_content=bufferf50c8&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&ut 1/2

    Image Credit: Presidential Press and Information Office, Kremlin

    Central Asia and the India-Russia PartnershipStrategic realities in Central Asia are likely to see Russia and India returning to their historicallystrong ties.

    Inordertocounterbalanceahegemonic,unipolarglobalorderdominatedbytheUnitedStates,formerRussianForeignMinisterYevgeniyPrimakovproposedinthe1990sthecreationofastrategictrianglebetweenChina,IndiaandRussia.Whiletenyearsagoitbrieflyappearedthatthisambitiousendeavormighthavebeenpossible,thevastlydivergentinterestsofthethreepowershavepreventedsuchbroadpartnership.NowRussiaisonceagainundertakingtostrengthenitsrelationswithChinaandIndiainwhatsomehavelikenedtoBarackObamasownpivottowardAsia.AfullfledgedcooperativearrangementbetweenChina,IndiaandRussia,however,seemsunlikelybecauseofthethreecountriescompetinginterestsinCentralAsia.Instead,RussiasdesignstobecomemoreintegratedwithAsiawillpossiblyleadtoastrongerIndoRussianrelationshipattheexpenseofamoresolidifiedSinoRussianpartnership.

    ThefeasibilityofRussiamakingafullorientationtowardAsiacameunderdoubtevenbeforetheWestimposedeconomicsanctionsinresponsetothecurrentcrisisinUkraine.Nevertheless,VladimirPutincontinuestodevelophiscountrystieswithAsiasrisingpowers,includingsummitmeetingswithbothChinaandIndia.IndiaandRussia,whilenotasclosethesedaysastheywereduringtheSovietera,havestillmaintainedcooperativerelations,whichappearpoisedtogrowstronger.ChinashistoricallyproblematicrelationswithbothIndiaandRussiahaveimprovedinrecentyears,despitelingeringproblemsintheSinoIndianrelationship,includingafesteringborderdispute,andcontinuingmutualdistrustbetweenChinaandRussia.

    DespiteimprovedrelationsbetweenthethreecountriesandRussiasrecentstepstowardthefurtherdevelopmentofrelationswithChinaandIndia,allthreecountrieshavecompetinginterestsinCentralAsia.ThisisespeciallytrueofChineseinterestsinCentralAsia,whicharemoredirectlyopposedtoIndianandRussianregionalimperativesthanIndianandRussianinterestsaretoeachother.IndiawantstoincreaseitsleverageandinfluenceinCentralAsia,whileRussiawishestomaintainandincreaseitspredominantgeopoliticalstance.YetIndiaandRussiasinterestsarecurrentlynotasdiametricallyopposedtoeachotherasChinasinterestsaretoboththoseofIndiaandRussia.Russia,therefore,willmostlikelygrowcloserwithIndiabecauseChinaisthebiggerthreattobothIndiaandRussiainCentralAsia.SomemaypostulatethatRussiawillbeabletobringChinaandIndiaclosertogether.AsAnkitPandaargues,however,RussiasimplydoesnothavethediplomaticleverageoverBeijingorNewDelhitoenactsuchanarrangement.

    IndiahasbeguntoshowgreaterinterestinCentralAsia,aspoliticalchangesinCentralAsiaoverthepast25yearshaveproventobelargelybeneficialforIndia.Thecreationoffivenewcountriesafter1991,especiallygiventhepresenceofwartornAfghanistanandahostilePakistan,provedtobeasourceofinspirationforIndia.Today,Indiasrelationship

    By Anthony RinnaJanuary 27, 2015

  • 1/28/2015 CentralAsiaandtheIndiaRussiaPartnership|TheDiplomat

    http://thediplomat.com/2015/01/centralasiaandtheindiarussiapartnership/?utm_content=bufferf50c8&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&ut 2/2

    withtheCentralAsianrepublicscanbedescribedasastrategicpartnership,andIndiahassoughttomakesureithasanactiveroleintheregion.TheincreaseinChineseforeignpolicyactivityinCentralAsiawasamajorimpetusforgreaterIndianinvolvementintheregion.Inturn,manyCentralAsianrepublicsareinterestedinstrengtheningtradetieswithIndiaastheyseeanopportunitytobecometransitcorridorsforIndianmerchandiseshippedtoEuropeandtheCommonwealthofIndependentStates.

    UnderNadendraModi,IndiahasbeguntopursueamoreassertiveforeignpolicythatislessinlinewiththeUnitedStates.ModihasstatedthattheideaofaunipolarworlddominatedbytheUnitedStateshasnotmaterialized,andthatgreatercooperationbetweenChina,IndiaandRussiaisneededtomaintainaglobalbalance.IndiaandRussiabothenjoyastrongstrategicpartnershipwitheachother,whiledespitecallsforgreatercooperation,IndiaseesChinaasitsmainstrategiccompetitorinCentralAsia.OneofIndiasmaininterestswithregardstogreaterinvolvementinCentralAsiaisenergysecurity.UmedjonMajididescribesenergysecurityasthekeynexusofIndiasforeignpolicy.China,however,hasproventobeanimpedimenttothis,underscoredbyChinasdemonstratedabilitytomaneuverintoenergycontractsinCentralAsiathatundercutbothIndianandRussianinterests.ThisisexemplifiedbyChinasthwartingoftheTAPIpipelineinfavorofitsownenergydesigns.

    SomeRussiananalystshavetakenamoregenerousviewofChineseinterestsinCentralAsiavisvisRussianplans,andhavecriticizedRussiaspoliticalcultureofdemonizingChinasactivitiesinCentralAsia.Nevertheless,MoscowremainscautiousaboutBeijingsroleinCentralAsia,especiallywithChinaseconomicthrustintotheregion.OneofthekeymechanismsforRussiatomonitorandhandleapotentialChineseinfringementofRussianinterestsinCentralAsiaistheShanghaiCooperationOrganization(SCO).TheSCOrepresentsamajorframeworkthroughwhichthestrategicrelationsbetweenChina,RussiaandIndiawilllikelydevelop.FollowingarecentannouncementthatIndia,currentlyanobserverstate,wouldbeallowedtoaccedetofullmembership,theSCOisoneofthemainmechanismsbywhichIndiaaspirestoincreaseitsactivenessinCentralAsia.IndiasmovetowardsfullSCOmembershipreceivedtoplevelsupportfromRussia.TheincreaseinChineseinfluenceinCentralAsiainthecontextoftheSCOhasactuallysetoffalarmbellsforRussia,andassuchRussiahaswelcomedgreaterIndianinvolvementintheprocess,asIndiaistheonlyothermajorpowerthatcanprovideafeasiblecounterbalancetoChina.

    Ofcourse,CentralAsiaisnotthesoledeterminingfactorinthedevelopmentofRussiascurrentandfuturerelationswithChinaandIndia.YettheimmensegeopoliticalvalueCentralAsiapresentsforthesethreepowersmeansthatacompetitiverelationshipregardingCentralAsiaislikelytobeathorninthesideoftrulyhealthyrelations.Assuch,itappearsthatitwillbeunlikelythatRussiawillmakeafullfledgedreorientationorpivottowardAsiaintheformofadefinitivestrategictrianglewithtwoofAsiasgreatpowers,ChinaandIndia.ThemostplausibleoutcomefromRussiasattemptsatsolidifyingitspositioninAsiaisthatbothIndiaandRussia,whichhavehistoricallyhadamuchbetterrelationshipthaneitherhashadwithChina,willonceagainformadeeperpartnershipinordertohelppreservetheirownrespectiveinterestsinCentralAsiaagainstthesharedChinesethreat.

    AnthonyRinnaisanAmericanforeignaffairswritercurrentlybasedinSouthKorea.


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