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Central Asia and Russia

An old sweet song

Aug 28th 2008 | ALMATYFrom The Economistprint edition

Russias Central Asian underbelly rumbles queasily

A CERTAIN tension was in the air as Central Asian leaders gathered in Dushanbe,

capital of Tajikistan, on August 28th. They met at the annual summit of the Shanghai

Co-operation Organisation, which groups Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan andUzbekistan with Russia and China. As in other parts of the former Soviet empire, the

region has been shaken by the brief war between Russia and Georgia and the Russianinduced declarations of independence by the Georgian enclaves of Abkhazia and Sout

Ossetia.

Unlike the leaders of Ukraine and the Baltic states, however, Central Asias presidentshave trod carefully. For the most part, they have kept their thoughts on the war to

themselves. The notable exception is Kazakhstans president, Nursultan Nazarbayev.

But even he has confined himself to vague public statements and avoided takingsides, though he sent humanitarian aid to South Ossetia.

Government officials and regional pundits agree that a Russian foray into any of the

five Central Asian countries (the fifth is Turkmenistan) is highly unlikely. There wouldbe no reason for it. Central Asia has no anti-Russian regimes and joining NATO is not

on the cards. Europe is too far away.

Even so, Russias military humiliation of Georgia and its stand-off with America have

unsettled the region. Central Asias leaders have long learned to live with Russias

view of their countries role: as a useful buffer to volatile Afghanistan, and asimportant trading partners and energy suppliers. Equally, however, since the collapse

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of the Soviet Union, America and China have growing interests and investments in theregion. This has helped check any overweening Russian dominance.

Oil-rich and multi-ethnic, Kazakhstan is the economic powerhouse of the region and

the Central Asian country with the largest Russian population. Indeed, Russia seesKazakhstan as such a trusted and strategic partner that President Dmitry Medvedevs

first trip abroad took him to the Kazakh capital, Astana (albeit en route to China). Butlandlocked and wedged between the huge land masses of China and Russia,

Kazakhstan also wants a broad range of foreign links. Of the Central Asian countries, has the most American investments, and according to its governments statistics is,remarkably, the largest foreign investor in Georgia.

Kyrgyzstan, like Georgia and Ukraine, is a former Soviet republic that has experienceda so-called colour revolution, which led to the overthrow of its president in 2005. Bu

it strongly sides with Russia. This month an opinion poll found that most of the

population would like Kyrgyzstan to have even closer ties with Russia. Hundreds ofthousands of Kyrgyzstanis and Tajiks have already migrated to Russia for work to

escape their countries poverty. Yet Kyrgyzstan is in the unique position of playinghost to both a Russian military base and an American one, the latter having been set

up for the NATO-led troops of the international coalition fighting in Afghanistan.

Observers believe that, at the Dushanbe summit, President Kurmanbek Bakiyev willprobably succumb to pressure to close the American base.

Uzbekistan, for its part, shut down its American base over two years ago after being

criticised by the American government for a massacre in the city of Andijan in May2005. It has been a very close ally of Russia ever since. The state-controlled Uzbek

press, like that in Turkmenistan, has largely ignored events in Georgia and SouthOssetia.

Even if the region need not fear Russian invasion, the war in the Caucasus does posea threat. As Sultan Akimbekov, editor of the Kazakh magazine, Kontinent, puts it, ouregion does not want to decide which side to take. We just want to have what we hav

today. And, if the confrontation between Russia and the West worsens further, thatmay no longer be possible.