cenários e horizon scanning em processos de apoio à decisão€¦ · 4. description: brief...
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António Alvarenga António Alvarenga
Cenários e Horizon Scanning em processos de apoio à decisão
______________________________________
António Alvarenga
Seminários do CEG - IST
10 de Fevereiro de 2014
António Alvarenga António Alvarenga
António Alvarenga António Alvarenga
Índice
1. PROSPECTIVA E SCANNING: CONCEITOS DE BASE
2. HORIZON [ENVIRONMENTAL] SCANNING
3. CENÁRIOS
4. LONG-TERM FUTURE OF THE PORTUGUESE ECONOMY - A SCENARIO BUILDING PROCESS
António Alvarenga António Alvarenga
1. PROSPECTIVA E SCANNING: CONCEITOS DE BASE
António Alvarenga António Alvarenga
1. FORESIGHT & SCANNING: CONCEITOS DE BASE
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Strategic Issue
Management Horizon
Scanning
Prospetiva Futures
Studies
Foresight
Futures Cenários
Competitive
Intelligence
Previsão
(Forecasting)
António Alvarenga
A RAND Corporation –
Cientistas Políticos e o
“Think Tank” da “Guerra
Fria”
Herman Kahn – “wishful thinking” vs.
“expectativas razoáveis”
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
A Escola das Probabilidades Mofificadas e a sua base de Modelação
Alv
aren
ga
, 2
01
0
A Escola Lógico-intuititiva / Wack, Schwartz, Heijden - Royal Dutch/Shell e GBN
Prospectiva Tecnológica
A Escola Francesa: "La Prospective"
O CAMPO DA PROSPECTIVA – UMA ABORDAGEM GENEALÓGICA
António Alvarenga António Alvarenga Tempo
Cenário 2
Cenário n
Cenário 3
Cenário 1
?
Não podemos
prever o Futuro
Temos que
pensar sobre
Futuros alternativos
Temos os nossos
pressupostos
sobre o Futuro
António Alvarenga António Alvarenga
“The Long View” Visão Global
& Holística
“Visão Periférica”
360º
Múltiplas
Perspectivas Triangulação
Olhar
“de fora para dentro” Visão Sistémica
Estrutura/Morfologia
do Futuro Jogo dos Actores
Criatividade
“Out-of-the Box”
PRINCÍPIOS DA
PROSPECTIVA
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Foco Estratégico Horizonte Temporal Tendências
Wildcards Incertezas
Weak Signals
(Sinais Fracos)
Tendências Pesadas
(Megatrends)
Visões
“Intents” Cenários
Estruturas, Sistemas
e Heurísticas
CONCEITOS DA
PROSPECTIVA
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2. HORIZON [ENVIRONMENTAL] SCANNING
António Alvarenga António Alvarenga
Horizon Scanning
Um processo sistemático de identificação, categorização e seleção de informação
alertando para potenciais mudanças de paradigma, disrupções, incertezas e
temas emergentes, os quais possam ser úteis para diferentes tipos de objetivos,
aplicações e utilizadores e/ou decisores, encorajando-os a antecipar e
compreender melhor o ambiente externo e a forma como o mesmo interage e
influencia as respetivas políticas e decisões estratégicas.
António Alvarenga António Alvarenga
The systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely future developments which are at the margins of current thinking and planning. Horizon Scanning may explore novel and unexpected issues, as well as persistent problems or trends. Overall, It is intended to improve the robustness of strategies, policies and evidence base.
____________________________________
The act of gathering new insights that may point us towards affirming or discrediting existing trends and developments as well as identify new and emerging trends and developments which are on the margins of our current thinking, but which will impact on our lives in the future.
Adapted from:
DEFRA – Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs.
Horizon Scanning Program, UK, 2002.
António Alvarenga António Alvarenga
ESTRATÉGIAS
MUDANÇA
Forças de Mudança, Tendências, Weak Signals, Wild Cards
+ - x % Extrapolar, Avaliar Impactos
Cenário 1 Cenário 2
Cenário 3
Cenário 4
Cenário n
VISÃO Objetivos, Valores
Construída de forma dinâmica, interactiva, gerindo contradições e paradoxos, …
O Scanning é uma fase de levantamento e análise de informação, essencial para as atividades subsequentes de Foresight e Estratégia.
Adaptado de Wendy Schultz (2006)
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Horizon Scanning PRINCIPAIS APLICAÇÕES
• Monitorização de Tópicos/Questões Críticas (Issues Monitoring)
• Competitor profiling/intelligence
• (Strategic) Early warning / reporte de emerging issues
• Benchmarking
• Análise de oportunidades e riscos para novos produtos/serviços/sectores de actividade e/ou regiões/países
• Monitorização e Prospectiva Tecnológica
• Informação crítica sobre fusões e aquisições
• Análise de posicionamento no mercado
• Fomento da criatividade e procura de ideias inovadoras
• Aprendizagem Organizacional , Conversação Estratégica e Agilidade Estratégica
• Fomento de redes de conhecimento
Adaptado e alterado a partir de Michaeli 2005, "Competitive Intelligence", Springer Verlag Heidelberg
António Alvarenga António Alvarenga
WILDCARD!!
Tempo
Número de casos; Nível de perceção pública
Local; Poucos Casos; Questões Emergentes
Global; Múltiplos casos dispersos; Tendências e Megatendências
Cientistas, artistas; radicais;
Jornais e websites especializados
Revistas, websites e documentários ”mainstream”
Jornais, revistas de notícias
Instituições Públicas; Governos
Mapeando a difusão de tendências ao nível da percepção pública desde o seu ponto inicial enquanto ”emerging issue of change”.
Fonte: Adaptado de Graham Molitor (1977) por Wendy Schultz (2008).
Scanning: “Issue Life-Cycle”
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Core Team”
Internal Scanners Level 1
Internal Scanners Level 2
Other
Scanning
Projects
External
Scanners
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Fo
nte
: Z
_punkt
Th
e F
ore
sig
ht
Com
pany,
Z-t
renddata
base
António Alvarenga António Alvarenga
Ferramentas de ajuda à “Organização”:
• Software BD (2D):
– Shaping Tomorrow
– Arlington Institute’s LISA & DIANE
• Software BD (3D):
– PersonalBrain
– ThinkMaps
Fonte: Schultz (2008)
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DPP Scanning Database
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Example of a Scanning Template
1. Category: classification according to type of driver of change: megatrend, trend, uncertainty, weak signal or wild card
2. Date: document elaboration date
3. Theme: classification according to DPP HS Project Taxonomy
4. Description: brief presentation and description of the topic/driver of change
5. Keywords: significant words capable of describing the topic/driver of change
6. Indicators: warning signs that may indicate that the driver of change is growing/declining/stopping
7. Impacts: brief description of impacts, intensity, areas and points of impact. (Intensity assessed according to scale: very high, high, medium, low, very low)
8. Degree of Exposure: assess to what extent and in which way is the system (context/external environment) prepared for the impact of the driver of change
9. Drivers and Inhibitors: any factors which may act either in the direction of acceleration / increase in the likelihood of occurrence / development of the driver of change (driver) or towards a slowing / reversal / decrease in the likelihood of occurrence / cessation of the driver of change (inhibitor)
10.Main Actors/Stakeholders: Identification and brief description of the actors/stakeholders that set the present and may influence the future evolution of the driver of change identified
11.Time Frame: when is it more plausible that the event / development occurs. Period of time elapsed until the different impacts (Section 7) are felt (immediately, up to 1 year, 1 to 5 years, 5 to 9 years, 10 to 19 years, more than 20 years)
12.Likelihood: subjective evaluation of the probability of emergence / development / cessation of driver of change (scale: very high, high, medium, low, very low)
13.Sources: identification and classification of the sources with date of publication and, if possible, the relevant internet link. Fonts are classified according to the following typology: (1) fringe, (2) mainstream or (3) expert
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3. CENÁRIOS
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Tempo
Cenário 2
Cenário n
Cenário 3
Cenário 1
?
Não podemos
prever o Futuro
Temos que
pensar sobre
Futuros alternativos
Temos os nossos
pressupostos
sobre o Futuro
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Cenários Planeamento por Cenários - Scenario Planning
Scenario Development Scenario Building Scenario Thinking
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A INCERTEZA como matéria-prima
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“The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in the mind, at the same time, and still retain the ability to function.”
(F. Scott Fitzgerald )
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Scenarios are narratives of alternative environments in which today’s decisions may be played out. They are not predictions. Nor are they strategies. Instead they are more like hypotheses of different futures specifically designed to highlight the risks and opportunities involved in specific strategic issues.
Ogilvy, J. and Schwartz, P. (2004). Plotting Your Scenarios. Global Business Network.
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CENÁRIOS NÃO SÃO PREVISÕES
Cenários… não são previsões mas formas de “iluminar” futuros possíveis. Cenários ...são conhecimento provisório.
Ted Fuller, 2001, trad. Alvarenga
António Alvarenga António Alvarenga
Natureza Hipotética Narrativas; Histórias (Shell, Schwartz, Heijden, GBN) Descrição de Futuros Alternativos Causalidade; “Imagens finais vs. Encaminhamento” (Kahn, Godet, Schoemaker, Jantsch, Miles)
Consistência, Coerência Interna e Plausibilidade (Godet, Wack, Porter, Schoemaker, Fahey e Randal)
“Reperceiving the Future”; Perceções; Confrontar & Mudar Modelos Mentais (Wack, Schwartz, Heijden, de Geus, GBN)
Tomada (e Processo) de Decisão (Kahn, Schwartz, Heijden, Shell, Schoemaker, Masini)
António Alvarenga António Alvarenga
Cenários: Arto Kaunonen
“Ferramentas para organizar as perceções sobre ambientes
futuros alternativos nos quais as decisões se podem vir a tomar”
Arto Kaunonen (2001)
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Visão: WG3 - COST A22
“Imagem de futuros desejáveis que inspiram as pessoas para a ação. Uma Visão também pode incluir descrições dos desenvolvimentos para os futuros desejáveis. O papel das Visões é a promoção da mudança através da focalização em agentes potenciais de mudança e/ou da mobilização de recursos.”
(2005, trad. Alvarenga)
CENÁRIOS ≠ VISÕES
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PRINCIPAIS “ESCOLAS” E MÉTODOS DE CENÁRIOS
• A Escola Lógico-intuitiva
• Os Cenários Industriais de Michael Porter
• A Escola das Probabilistic Modified Trends
• La Prospective
António Alvarenga António Alvarenga
SCENARIO PLANNING - OBJETIVOS E APLICAÇÕES
• “Exploração” e “Avaliação” de Desafios, Riscos e Oportunidades
• Estímulo e suporte a Processos de Inovação envolvendo vários parceiros – “ensaiar futuros provocantes”
• Formulação e Implementação de Decisões Estratégicas mais Criativas e mais Robustas
• Definição de uma Direção Estratégica (decidir sobre um assunto estratégico específico; definição de uma Agenda Estratégica de alto nível)
• Teste da Estratégia atual ou Visão
• Catalizar a ação. Questionar o status quo.
• Co-criação de um Modelo Mental do Futuro – Visão partilhada e alinhamento crescente sobre um Futuro Desejado ou uma Direção Estratégica (Visioning)
• Criação de uma Plataforma que possibilite a Conversação Estratégica
• Aceleração da Aprendizagem Organizacional (aprendizagem colaborativa)
• Future-orientation: pensar de forma profunda, sistémica e sistemática; lidar melhor com a mudança
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Diversidade de Utilizadores/Usos
Planeamento Estratégico Militar (Origem)
Comunidade empresarial
Comunidade Ambientalista
Sector público:
• Autarquias e outras entidades territoriais de amplitude local e regional
• Agências e organismos permanentes
• Agências e organismos temporários (vd. programas nacionais de Prospectiva Tecnológica)
Sociedade civil
Cooperação interorganizacional
Reguladores
Instituições de investigação científica Fonte: Fuller, 2001
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Sectorial
Regional / Territorial
Empresarial
Nacional
Tecnológica
Múltiplas Áreas de Aplicação
Scenario Planning
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4. Long-term Future of the Portuguese Economy
a Scenario Building Process
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• Intro • The workshops and their inputs • The written Scenarios
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» Work developed by DPP within the scope of Project “HybCO2: Hybrid approaches
to evaluate the economic, environmental and technological impact of long-term low
carbon scenarios – the Portuguese case”, co-financed by the “Fundação para a
Ciência e Tecnologia” (FCT).
» The project started in 2010 and was developed together with “Faculdade de
Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa” (FCT-UNL) and “Instituto
Superior de Economia e Gestão” (ISEG).
» HyBCO2 general goals: assessment of the implications of long-term carbon
reduction Scenarios through the development and comparison of two hybrid tools.
» Taking the Portuguese economy until 2050 as a case study, two hybrid tools are
being developed: the HYBGED model and the HYBTEP platform. Based on
Scenarios that explore possible socio-economic paths for Portugal up to 2050, the
two hybrid tools will be used to assess the cost effectiveness of the possibilities of
greenhouse gas emissions (GHG emissions) reduction and its effects on prices,
production and family income as well as on economic well-being.
» More information about the HybCO2 project on its official website:
http://hybco2.cense.fct.unl.pt/.
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Long-term Scenarios for the Portuguese Economy Roadmap
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• Intro • The workshops and their inputs • The written Scenarios
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Workshop
Global Scenarios 2050
KEY UNCERTAINTIES AND POSSIBLE SCENARIO STRUCTURES
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Global Scenarios 2050 Workshop
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→ Context-specific approach
→ Project, methodology (and even tool) design
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Methods and Tools: more flexible, intuitive and lighter
Foresight • Scenario Planning/Thinking (intuitive-logics: SHELL, GBN, SRI, etc; Porter) • Trend Analysis • Environmental Scanning • Futures Wheels • Futures Accelerator© • Visions Competition© • Incasting • Future Workshops (future conferences)
Actors • Stakeholder Analysis • Strategic Groups (workshop version; adaptation) • Role Plays
Innovation and Creativity • Strategic Deep Dives (IDEO) • Mind Mapping • Brainstorming • Brainwriting • Focus Groups •Storytelling
Competitive Intelligence • Competitive Blindspots • War Games • Competitive Benchmarking & Tactical Analysis • Early Warning (Weak signals) Management Systems • Benchmarking Studies
Methods and Tools: more analitical and heavier
• Scenario Planning (La Prospective, Mathematic/Probabilistic Modeling) • Delphi • Structural Analysis (MICMAC) • Analysis of the “Actors’ Game” (MACTOR) • Morphological Analysis (MORPHOL) • Smic-Prob-Expert / Cross Impact Analysis (CIA) • Trend Impact Analysis (TIA) • Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) • Patent Analysis
Strategy and Management
• SWOT analysis • Balanced Scorecard • Core Competencies • Activity System • Business Idea • 5 Forces • Strategic Groups • Value-chain • End Game Analysis • Key Strategic Factors / Internal Factors of Competitiveness
• Gap Analysis • Wind Tunneling • Implications and options • Finantial Analysis • Strategic Conversation • Strategic Choice Structuring • Real Options • Enterprise Value Map • Strat Bridge
• Ideas Combat© • Innovators Solution • Six Hats (de Bono) • Po (de Bono) • Mobility Vip Cards • Idea Boxes • Random Word
Alvarenga, Carvalho, 2009
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A NOTE ON METHODOLOGY I
Workshop methodology: an
adaptation (of a section) of the
intuitive-logics scenario-building
approach
António Alvarenga António Alvarenga
The future will result from the interaction
between Megatrends coming from the
past and shaping the future, Weak
Signals or issues at an embrionary stage
of development, Wildcards that might
surprise us in a positive or negative way,
and Structural Uncertainties that might
take us not just for one but for a plurality
of possible futures.
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Strategic Focus Time horizon Trends
Wildcards Uncertainties /
Key Uncertainties
Weak Signals Megatrends
Visions /
“Intents” Scenarios
Structures, systems
and heuristics
KEY CONCEPTS
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Ana Maria Fernandes
António de Melo Pires
Guta Moura Guedes
Helena Cordeiro
João Caraça
José Emílio Amaral Gomes
José Maria Brandão de Brito
Luís Campos e Cunha
Luís Nazaré
Manuela Proença
Miguel Duarte Pereira
Miguel Monjardino
Natalino Martins
Nuno Ribeiro da Silva
Pedro Moreira
Roberto Carneiro
Stephan Magnus
Vítor Bento
Ângela Lobo
António Manzoni
Jorge Marrão João Ferrão
Júlia Seixas Manuel Mira Godinho
Maria da Luz Correia Miguel St Aubyn
Patrícia Fortes
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Choosing Key Uncertainties
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14 Key Uncertainties
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Emergence of a New Technology Paradigm Incremental Disruptive
Religion Conflict Coexistence
Globalization “Mega-countries” “Flat”
Rule(s) Setting New Paradigm; “Merge" Western Ideas
Four Global Critical Uncertainties selected by the Participants in the “Global Scenarios 2050 Workshop”
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Scenario
Structures
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3 Scenario Matrixes
(12 potential Scenarios – initial exploration)
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Workshops
Long-term socio-economic Scenarios for Portugal
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Scenarios for Portugal 2050 Workshop
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Timeline
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The final version of the Timeline already benefiting from the reactions and suggestions of the workshop attendees, was also published under the form of DPP Insights with the title “Timeline: A Economia Portuguesa no Contexto Global” (Alvarenga & Rogado, 2011). Both the compilation and a first version of the Timeline played a core role in the preparation and implementation of the “Scenarios for Portugal 2050” workshops and of the contents analysed.
António Alvarenga
What might define the future?
What will remain?
Structural limitations?
What can project Portugal?
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Strategic Focus Time horizon Trends
Wildcards Uncertainties /
Key Uncertainties
Weak Signals Megatrends
Visions /
“Intents” Scenarios
Structures, systems
and heuristics
KEY CONCEPTS
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10 Uncertainties
(in depth scanning2 » “inputs
for discussion”)
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PORTUGAL 2050
INCERTEZAS POTENCIAIS
1
Evolução do Perfil de
Especialização da Economia
Portuguesa
(Padrão de Actividades
Exportadoras)
2
Posição e Função de
Portugal no Sistema
Internacional de Transportes
e Logística
4
Conectividade
(Física e Digital)
de Portugal na
Economia Global
10
Evolução dos Sistemas de
Ensino e Formação em
Portugal
(Qualidade, eficiência, eficácia,
…)
9
Intensidade, Impactos
e Gestão do(s)
Envelhecimento(s) da
População em Portugal
(Ligação com Sistemas de
Pensões e de Saúde)
8
Tipologia e Papel das
Cidades
no Desenvolvimento do País
7
Evolução do Modelo de
Coesão Social Português
(Mercado Trabalho; Ensino e
Formação; Protecção Social;
Saúde)
5
Padrão de Urbanização
e Organização do Território
3
Preferências e Apostas ao
nível dos Relacionamentos
Geoeconómicos por parte
dos Poderes Públicos e
Investidores Portugueses
6
Evolução das Soluções/
Plataformas Energéticas e
de Mobilidade
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10 Uncertainties
(co-built » shared)
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Working with Uncertainties and
Configurations
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PORTUGAL 2050
POTENTIAL UNCERTAINTIES
(Workshop 2)
1 Evolution of the Structure and
Specialisation of the Portuguese
Economy
• Exporting activities and internationalisation
• Position in the value chains of goods and
services traded internationally
• Insertion in the international division of
labour.
2 Financial Sustainability of the
Portuguese Economy
• External imbalances
• National debt + private debt
• Ability and promptness in solving financial
imbalances
4 Institutional Capacity Building of
the Portuguese Economy and
Society
• Evolution and credibility of the institutions
• Social capital
10 Evolution of the Education and
Training Systems in Portugal
• Human capital
• Quality and efficiency of the systems
• Connection and harmony with the labour
market
• Training throughout life
9 Generational Uncertainty - how is
the next generation going to live?
• Generational conflicts
• Generational cohesion and solidarity
8 Typology and Role of the Cities in
Spatial Planning
• Territorial cohesion
• Dynamics of urbanisation
• Networks of cities
7 Evolution of the Portuguese social
cohesion model
• Redistributive mechanisms
• Labour market
• Education and Training
• Social protection
• Health
5 Cultural Values and Ability to
Generate Social Capital
• Cultural changes
• Confidence
• Individual benefit vs. collective benefit
• Capacity of innovation and societal change
3 Political System Model
• Evolution of democracy
• Attractiveness of other solutions
6 Strategic Leadership and Pro-
activity of the Economic Agents
• Political System
• Alignment and mobilisation of the players
• Strategic vision and quality of governance
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Focus on high added value products
Focus on the industry and in sectors of undifferentiated products with low profit margins
Dualist Model – Mix of the two previous models
Evolution of the Structure and
Specialisation of the Portuguese Economy
1
Deterioration of the external accounts and of the budget imbalances - “THE HOLE”
Improvement of the financial and economic governance – “FÉNIX”
Business-as-Usual – “BAIN MARIE”
Financial Sustainability of
Portugal 2
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Decentralised, participatory and open Democracy (including new forms of representation)
Autocratic, probably centralised and/or devolved
Centralised democracy, the State configuration with a tendency to be a provider
Political System Model and State
Configuration 3
Institutional renewal; efficacy and efficiency
Institutional degradation
Institutional Capacity Building of the
Portuguese Economy and Society
4
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Perpetuation of the current cultural values and social capital (Business-as-Usual); low confidence levels in the civil society
Capacity for reversing the current situation by creating social capital (endogenously created); a more entrepreneurial society
Capacity for reversing the current situation by creating social capital, imposed from abroad; less profound change than the previous configuration; adaptive evolution
Cultural Values and Ability to Generate
Social Capital 5
Absence of vision and quality in managing the public interest, keeping the erratic nature of governance – “THE SPANISH INN”
Technical quality in managing the public interest, stability trust – “SUNNY ROAD”
Strategic Leadership and Pro-activity of
the Economic Agents 6
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Adaptive evolution regarding the European standard
Social model that can become reinforced
Rupture of the current cohesion model; fragmentation (for instance: working in Portugal with labour contracts subject to another country’s jurisdiction)
Evolution of the Portuguese Social Cohesion Model
7
Urbanisation reinforcement with the increase of conflicts within the city
Urbanisation reinforcement with the city as a virtuous model but disaggregated from the rest of the territory
Stabilisation of the urban dimension with an urban-rural partnership
Typology and Role of the Cities in Spatial
Planning 8
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Coexistence – two parallel worlds, two different generations with no interaction
Conflicts due to values, practices and dependence relations; generational conflict
Cohesion – intercultural differences as a source of new practices and knowledge
Generational Uncertainty (how
the next generation is going to live)
9
Increase in the quality and importance of the production and transmission of knowledge
Reduction in the quality and importance of the production and transmission of knowledge
Evolution of the Education and
Training Systems in Portugal
10
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The next task was based, in methodological terms, on
Morphological Analysis.
» Critical Uncertainties and their Configurations » building of
the Base Structures of “Portugal Scenarios 2050”.
A table with the Critical Uncertainties and defined
Configurations was distributed and the participants, organised
in working groups, were asked to select combinations of
configurations of the Critical Uncertainties in order to obtain
two distinct Scenario Structures
António Alvarenga António Alvarenga
A NOTE ON METHODOLOGY II
an adaptation of the
Morphological Analysis logic to
an workshop/participatory
context.
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Portugal 13 Points – SUF+ Portugal 18 Points – Very Good
Focus on high added value products
Focus on industry and on sectors of
undifferentiated products with low
margins
Dualist Model – Mix of the two
previous models Focus on high added value products
Focus on industry and on sectors of
undifferentiated products with low
margins
Dualist Model – Mix of the two
previous models
Deterioration of external accounts
and of budget imbalances - “THE
HOLE”
Improvement of financial and economic
governance – “FÉNIX” Business-as-Usual – “BAIN MARIE”
Deterioration of external accounts
and of budget imbalances - “THE
HOLE”
Improvement of financial and
economic governance – “FÉNIX” Business-as-Usual – “BAIN MARIE”
Decentralised, participatory and
open Democracy (including new
forms of representation)
Autocratic, probably centralised and/or
decentralised
Centralised democracy, the State
configuration with a tendency to be a
provider
Decentralised, participatory and open
Democracy (including new forms of
representation)
Autocratic, probably centralised
and/or decentralised
Centralised democracy, the State
configuration with a tendency to be a
provider
Institutional renewal; efficacy and
efficiency Institutional degradation
Institutional renewal; efficacy and
efficiency Institutional degradation
Perpetuation of the current cultural
values and social capital (Business-
as-Usual); low confidence levels in
the civil society
Capacity for reversing the current
situation by creating social capital
(endogenously created); a more
entrepreneurial society
Capacity for reversing the current
situation by creating social capital,
imposed abroad; less profound
change than the previous
configuration; adaptive evolution
Perpetuation of the current cultural
values and social capital (Business-as-
Usual); low confidence levels in the
civil society
Capacity for reversing the current
situation by creating social capital
(endogenously created); a more
entrepreneurial society
Capacity for reversing the current
situation by creating social capital,
imposed abroad; less profound
change than the previous
configuration; adaptive evolution
Absence of vision and quality in
managing the public interest,
keeping the erratic nature of
governance – “THE SPANISH INN”
Technical quality in managing the
public interest, stability trust – “SUNNY
ROAD”
Absence of vision and quality in
managing the public interest, keeping
the erratic nature of governance –
“THE SPANISH INN”
Technical quality in managing the
public interest, stability trust –
“SUNNY ROAD”
Adaptive evolution regarding the
European standard
Social model that can become
reinforced
Rupture of the current cohesion
model; fragmentation (for instance:
working in Portugal with labour
contracts subject to another country’s
jurisdiction)
Adaptive evolution regarding the
European standard
Social model that can become
reinforced
Rupture of the current cohesion
model; fragmentation (for instance:
working in Portugal with labour
contracts subject to another country’s
jurisdiction)
Urbanisation reinforcement with the
increase of conflicts within the city
Urbanisation reinforcement with the
city as a virtuous model but
disaggregated from the rest of the
territory
Stabilisation of the urban dimension
with an urban-rural partnership
Urbanisation reinforcement with the
increase of conflicts within the city
Urbanisation reinforcement with the
city as a virtuous model but
disaggregated from the rest of the
territory
Stabilisation of the urban dimension
with an urban-rural partnership
Coexistence – two parallel worlds,
two different generations with no
interaction
Conflicts due to values, practices and
dependence relations; generational
conflict
Cohesion – intercultural differences
as a source of new practices and
knowledge
Coexistence – two parallel worlds,
two different generations with no
interaction
Conflicts due to values, practices and
dependence relations; generational
conflict
Cohesion – intercultural differences
as a source of new practices and
knowledge
Increase in the quality and
importance of the production and
transmission of knowledge
Reduction in the quality and
importance of the production and
transmission of knowledge
Increase in the quality and
importance of the production and
transmission of knowledge
Reduction in the quality and
importance of the production and
transmission of knowledge
António Alvarenga António Alvarenga
Decline Affirmation
Focus on high added value products
Focus on industry and on sectors of
undifferentiated products with low
margins
Dualist Model – Mix of the two
previous models Focus on high added value products
Focus on industry and on sectors of
undifferentiated products with low
margins
Dualist Model – Mix of the two
previous models
Deterioration of external accounts
and of budget imbalances - “THE
HOLE”
Improvement of financial and
economic governance – “FÉNIX” Business-as-Usual – “BAIN MARIE”
Deterioration of external accounts
and of budget imbalances - “THE
HOLE”
Improvement of financial and
economic governance – “FÉNIX” Business-as-Usual – “BAIN MARIE”
Decentralised, participatory and open
Democracy (including new forms of
representation)
Autocratic, probably centralised
and/or decentralised
Centralised democracy, the State
configuration with a tendency to be a
provider
Decentralised, participatory and open
Democracy (including new forms of
representation)
Autocratic, probably centralised
and/or decentralised
Centralised democracy, the State
configuration with a tendency to be a
provider
Institutional renewal; efficacy and
efficiency Institutional degradation
Institutional renewal; efficacy and
efficiency Institutional degradation
Perpetuation of the current cultural
values and social capital (Business-as-
Usual); low confidence levels in the
civil society
Capacity for reversing the current
situation by creating social capital
(endogenously created); a more
entrepreneurial society
Capacity for reversing the current
situation by creating social capital,
imposed abroad; less profound
change than the previous
configuration; adaptive evolution
Perpetuation of the current cultural
values and social capital (Business-as-
Usual); low confidence levels in the
civil society
Capacity for reversing the current
situation by creating social capital
(endogenously created); a more
entrepreneurial society
Capacity for reversing the current
situation by creating social capital,
imposed abroad; less profound
change than the previous
configuration; adaptive evolution
Absence of vision and quality in
managing the public interest, keeping
the erratic nature of governance –
“THE SPANISH INN”
Technical quality in managing the
public interest, stability trust –
“SUNNY ROAD”
Absence of vision and quality in
managing the public interest, keeping
the erratic nature of governance –
“THE SPANISH INN”
Technical quality in managing the
public interest, stability trust –
“SUNNY ROAD”
Adaptive evolution regarding the
European standard
Social model that can become
reinforced
Rupture of the current cohesion
model; fragmentation (for instance:
working in Portugal with labour
contracts subject to another
country’s jurisdiction)
Adaptive evolution regarding the
European standard
Social model that can become
reinforced
Rupture of the current cohesion
model; fragmentation (for instance:
working in Portugal with labour
contracts subject to another
country’s jurisdiction)
Urbanisation reinforcement with the
increase of conflicts within the city
Urbanisation reinforcement with the
city as a virtuous model but
disaggregated from the rest of the
territory
Stabilisation of the urban dimension
with an urban-rural partnership
Urbanisation reinforcement with the
increase of conflicts within the city
Urbanisation reinforcement with the
city as a virtuous model but
disaggregated from the rest of the
territory
Stabilisation of the urban dimension
with an urban-rural partnership
Coexistence – two parallel worlds,
two different generations with no
interaction
Conflicts due to values, practices and
dependence relations; generational
conflict
Cohesion – intercultural differences
as a source of new practices and
knowledge
Coexistence – two parallel worlds,
two different generations with no
interaction
Conflicts due to values, practices and
dependence relations; generational
conflict
Cohesion – intercultural differences
as a source of new practices and
knowledge
Increase in the quality and
importance of the production and
transmission of knowledge
Reduction in the quality and
importance of the production and
transmission of knowledge
Increase in the quality and
importance of the production and
transmission of knowledge
Reduction in the quality and
importance of the production and
transmission of knowledge
António Alvarenga António Alvarenga
Portugal “Camilo Alves” Portugal “Vintage”
Focus on high added value products
Focus on industry and on sectors of
undifferentiated products with low
margins
Dualist Model – Mix of the two
previous models Focus on high added value products
Focus on industry and on sectors of
undifferentiated products with low
margins
Dualist Model – Mix of the two
previous models
Deterioration of external accounts
and of budget imbalances - “THE
HOLE”
Improvement of financial and
economic governance – “FÉNIX” Business-as-Usual – “BAIN MARIE”
Deterioration of external accounts
and of budget imbalances - “THE
HOLE”
Improvement of financial and
economic governance – “FÉNIX” Business-as-Usual – “BAIN MARIE”
Decentralised, participatory and
open Democracy (including new
forms of representation)
Autocratic, probably centralised
and/or decentralised
Centralised democracy, the State
configuration with a tendency to be a
provider
Decentralised, participatory and
open Democracy (including new
forms of representation)
Autocratic, probably centralised
and/or decentralised
Centralised democracy, the State
configuration with a tendency to be a
provider
Institutional renewal; efficacy and
efficiency Institutional degradation
Institutional renewal; efficacy and
efficiency Institutional degradation
Perpetuation of the current cultural
values and social capital (Business-as-
Usual); low confidence levels in the
civil society
Capacity for reversing the current
situation by creating social capital
(endogenously created); a more
entrepreneurial society
Capacity for reversing the current
situation by creating social capital,
imposed abroad; less profound
change than the previous
configuration; adaptive evolution
Perpetuation of the current cultural
values and social capital (Business-as-
Usual); low confidence levels in the
civil society
Capacity for reversing the current
situation by creating social capital
(endogenously created); a more
entrepreneurial society
Capacity for reversing the current
situation by creating social capital,
imposed abroad; less profound
change than the previous
configuration; adaptive evolution
Absence of vision and quality in
managing the public interest, keeping
the erratic nature of governance –
“THE SPANISH INN”
Technical quality in managing the
public interest, stability trust –
“SUNNY ROAD”
Absence of vision and quality in
managing the public interest, keeping
the erratic nature of governance –
“THE SPANISH INN”
Technical quality in managing the
public interest, stability trust –
“SUNNY ROAD”
Adaptive evolution regarding the
European standard
Social model that can become
reinforced
Rupture of the current cohesion
model; fragmentation (for instance:
working in Portugal with labour
contracts subject to another
country’s jurisdiction)
Adaptive evolution regarding the
European standard
Social model that can become
reinforced
Rupture of the current cohesion
model; fragmentation (for instance:
working in Portugal with labour
contracts subject to another
country’s jurisdiction)
Urbanisation reinforcement with the
increase of conflicts within the city
Urbanisation reinforcement with the
city as a virtuous model but
disaggregated from the rest of the
territory
Stabilisation of the urban dimension
with an urban-rural partnership
Urbanisation reinforcement with the
increase of conflicts within the city
Urbanisation reinforcement with the
city as a virtuous model but
disaggregated from the rest of the
territory
Stabilisation of the urban dimension
with an urban-rural partnership
Coexistence – two parallel worlds,
two different generations with no
interaction
Conflicts due to values, practices and
dependence relations; generational
conflict
Cohesion – intercultural differences
as a source of new practices and
knowledge
Coexistence – two parallel worlds,
two different generations with no
interaction
Conflicts due to values, practices and
dependence relations; generational
conflict
Cohesion – intercultural differences
as a source of new practices and
knowledge
Increase in the quality and
importance of the production and
transmission of knowledge
Reduction in the quality and
importance of the production and
transmission of knowledge
Increase in the quality and
importance of the production and
transmission of knowledge
Reduction in the quality and
importance of the production and
transmission of knowledge
António Alvarenga António Alvarenga
Renewal within Continuity Global Portugal
Focus on high added value products
Focus on industry and on sectors of
undifferentiated products with low
margins
Dualist Model – Mix of the two
previous models Focus on high added value products
Focus on industry and on sectors of
undifferentiated products with low
margins
Dualist Model – Mix of the two
previous models
Deterioration of external accounts
and of budget imbalances - “THE
HOLE”
Improvement of financial and
economic governance – “FÉNIX” Business-as-Usual – “BAIN MARIE”
Deterioration of external accounts
and of budget imbalances - “THE
HOLE”
Improvement of financial and
economic governance – “FÉNIX” Business-as-Usual – “BAIN MARIE”
Decentralised, participatory and open
Democracy (including new forms of
representation)
Autocratic, probably centralised
and/or decentralised
Centralised democracy, the State
configuration with a tendency to be a
provider
Decentralised, participatory and open
Democracy (including new forms of
representation)
Autocratic, probably centralised
and/or decentralised
Centralised democracy, the State
configuration with a tendency to be a
provider
Institutional renewal; efficacy and
efficiency Institutional degradation
Institutional renewal; efficacy and
efficiency Institutional degradation
Perpetuation of the current cultural
values and social capital (Business-as-
Usual); low confidence levels in the
civil society
Capacity for reversing the current
situation by creating social capital
(endogenously created); a more
entrepreneurial society
Capacity for reversing the current
situation by creating social capital,
imposed abroad; less profound
change than the previous
configuration; adaptive evolution
Perpetuation of the current cultural
values and social capital (Business-as-
Usual); low confidence levels in the
civil society
Capacity for reversing the current
situation by creating social capital
(endogenously created); a more
entrepreneurial society
Capacity for reversing the current
situation by creating social capital,
imposed abroad; less profound
change than the previous
configuration; adaptive evolution
Absence of vision and quality in
managing the public interest, keeping
the erratic nature of governance –
“THE SPANISH INN”
Technical quality in managing the
public interest, stability trust –
“SUNNY ROAD”
Absence of vision and quality in
managing the public interest, keeping
the erratic nature of governance –
“THE SPANISH INN”
Technical quality in managing the
public interest, stability trust –
“SUNNY ROAD”
Adaptive evolution regarding the
European standard
Social model that can become
reinforced
Rupture of the current cohesion
model; fragmentation (for instance:
working in Portugal with labour
contracts subject to another country’s
jurisdiction)
Adaptive evolution regarding the
European standard
Social model that can become
reinforced
Rupture of the current cohesion
model; fragmentation (for instance:
working in Portugal with labour
contracts subject to another country’s
jurisdiction)
Urbanisation reinforcement with the
increase of conflicts within the city
Urbanisation reinforcement with the
city as a virtuous model but
disaggregated from the rest of the
territory
Stabilisation of the urban dimension
with an urban-rural partnership
Urbanisation reinforcement with the
increase of conflicts within the city
Urbanisation reinforcement with the
city as a virtuous model but
disaggregated from the rest of the
territory
Stabilisation of the urban dimension
with an urban-rural partnership
Coexistence – two parallel worlds, two
different generations with no
interaction
Conflicts due to values, practices and
dependence relations; generational
conflict
Cohesion – intercultural differences as
a source of new practices and
knowledge
Coexistence – two parallel worlds, two
different generations with no
interaction
Conflicts due to values, practices and
dependence relations; generational
conflict
Cohesion – intercultural differences as
a source of new practices and
knowledge
Increase in the quality and importance
of the production and transmission of
knowledge
Reduction in the quality and
importance of the production and
transmission of knowledge
Increase in the quality and importance
of the production and transmission of
knowledge
Reduction in the quality and
importance of the production and
transmission of knowledge
António Alvarenga António Alvarenga
• Intro • The workshops and their inputs • The written Scenarios
António Alvarenga António Alvarenga
Two Long-Term Scenarios for the
Portuguese Economy
António Alvarenga António Alvarenga
A NOTE ON METHODOLOGY III
Scenario methodological note: a
more inductive systematization
António Alvarenga António Alvarenga
A NOTE ON METHODOLOGY IV
C1: “Welcome”
C1 – Summary
C1 – Global Framework (GF_A)
C1 – Introduction: Structural Steps in the Functioning and
Positioning of the Portuguese Economy
C1 – Evolution of the Specialization Profile
C1 – Strategic Leadership, Institutional Capacity Building and
Social Capital
C1 – Scientific Potential and Education and Training Systems
C1 – Spatial Planning and Role of the Cities
C1 – Physical and Digital Connectivity
C1 – Energy and Environment
António Alvarenga António Alvarenga
Scenario no. 1
“Welcome”
António Alvarenga António Alvarenga
In spite of the major structural forces limiting the international positioning of the Portuguese economy still hindering the success of the attempts for achieving transformation, Portugal manages to position itself at an international level as a Tourism/welcoming country, based on its “classic” comparative advantages and with the capacity for organising its territory as a whole, reclaiming buildings and planning the cities. Several and recurring economic problems occur but our collective capacity to manage the short term and find answers ends up succeeding, step-by-step, in rebalancing the situations. The combination of the gains in urban planning with the dynamics of cultural and creative industries constitutes an important and complementary contribution in the logic of the “innovative welcoming” in the same way as activities associated with active aging, including the development of market niches related to the health/pharmaceutical industry.
António Alvarenga António Alvarenga
Competition
• Resources/ • Regulation/Rules •
Markets/Regional Influence/Models
• Socio-economic References
Demography
(Geo)economy
Environment/ Sustainability
Technology
• Rise of Large Eastern Economies, with particular impact of the Chinese Economy
• Oligopolistic world
• …
• Increase in the world population
• Aging of the population in the developed countries
• …
• Pressure on water resources
• Increasing need for Energy
• …
• Different approaches to technological Innovation
• …
•Resources/ •Regulation/Rules • Markets/Regional Influence/Models
• Socio-economic References Global Framework of the “Welcome” Scenario
António Alvarenga António Alvarenga
“Welcome” - Synthesis
Portugal was able to implement important changes to improve the functioning and positioning of its economy (containment of the chronic external deficit and ability to plan and organize its territory);
Portugal wasn’t able to successfully bring about some needed structural changes (concerning internal imbalances endemic in nature and the way by which its economy integrated itself in the globalisation process, with the virtuous exception of tourism);
Expectations created with the balancing of public accounts defrauded by Portugal’s inability, in adverse international environment, to become more attractive and central;
Some ability for the generation of "endogenous" skills;
Inability to attract FDI capable of leveraging change in the production profile;
Structural reforms begun, but slow to implement in a context of major budget tightening;
Constant monitoring by financial markets;
Portugal reveals the capacity for short-term response in very difficult situations, but is never able to do the same for long term;
Economic course of action characterized by proximity and quick return investment in activities and sectors where Portugal has comparative advantages with poorly skilled yet specialized labour;
Exception being the promotion of the health cluster in niche markets, driven by tourism to accommodate the elderly population of developed countries, more demanding in health care.
António Alvarenga António Alvarenga
City and Short Breaks
To improve accessibility to Lisbon / Porto
To improve the tourist experience, particularly in Porto by structuring thematic itineraries, diversifying entertainment events
Integrated Resorts and Residential Tourism
Growing in quality To promote the creation of resorts
with associated offers (e.g. golf courses and Spas)
To highlight tourism management systems focused on resorts
Golf
To consolidate the strong international projection as a golf destination
To build more high quality golf courses (by famous architects) and with a diversified offer
To ensure annual golf tournaments with high international projection
To stimulate golf practice in Portugal
Nautical Tourism
To invest in the docking conditions and in the building of ports and harbours, marinas and recreational ports in the priority areas.
In the cruises segment, to improve the conditions of the terminals and to create new routes
Cultural and Landscape Touring
To create thematic routes To enrich the experience in the main
places of attraction To ensure the adoption of quality
standards along the whole value chain
Gastronomy and Wines
To take advantage of the conditions and natural / cultural resources (Douro, Alentejo and Central Portugal)
To structure the product To stimulate the sale of Appellation
of Origin products (wines and cheeses)
Food Tasting Offer
Sun and Sea Segment
Re-qualify the product with priority to Algarve
To invest in complementary activities which strengthen the value proposal for the tourist
Nature Tourism
To improve the infrastructures To improve road signs and the paths
through nature To develop the offer, ensuring the
preservation of the protected areas
Business Tourism
To consolidate the offer for large congresses in Lisbon and to develop it in Algarve
To develop the small meetings segment in Lisbon, Porto, Algarve and Madeira
Health and Well-being
To develop distinctive offers in Azores and Madeira
To transform the Spa industry in Porto, and in the North and Centre of the country
To develop well-being equipment and services in Hotels
Medical Tourism
“Welcome” Scenario – Tourism Segments and Benefiting Sectors
António Alvarenga António Alvarenga
Logistics and Transportation
Geographical reference systems Ports Mobility
Cultural and Creative Industries
Educative and leisure software Media and entertainment Design Architecture Advertising
Support Services
Certification Waste management Environmental management and
valorisation Engineering CIT Training Marketing Organising events
Building and Real Estate
Rehabilitation of real estate Requalification of public areas Energy and Environmental
Certification
Distribution and Trade
Supermarkets Shopping centres Luxury goods
Food Industry
Vegetable and speciality agriculture Biological products Gourmet products Fishing and aquaculture Wine tasting Gastronomy competitions and fairs
Equipment Goods
Leisure equipment Sports equipment Hotel and Restaurant equipment
Security and Defence
Monitoring of the coastal areas and of the exclusive economic area
Internal Security (public and private) Information services
Health and Community Care
Telemedicine Community care Hospitals and Private Clinics Pharmaceutical products related to
aging
(continued from previous slide)
António Alvarenga António Alvarenga
Scenario no. 2
“We cannot fail”
António Alvarenga António Alvarenga
A set of endogenous developments (changes) within the functioning of the Portuguese economy and society, combine with some global external driving forces to turn the three decades subsequent to 2011 unique in growth dynamics, increase in competitive capacity and sectorial, institutional and societal reorganisation of our country. In this scenario, there is a reindustrialisation of the Portuguese economy together with the development of new activities, namely in high-technology domains (bio, cogno, nano…) and services of intensive knowledge. Portugal stands out in the fields of clean energies, sustainable mobility and new intelligent materials.
António Alvarenga António Alvarenga
Competition
Resources Skills
Savings
Demography
(Geo)economy
Environment/ Sustainability
Technology
• Rising of large economies
• Changing to a multi-polar world
• …
• Increase of the world population
• Aging of the population in the developed countries
• …
• Pressure over water resources
• Increasing needs of energy
• Increasing importance of the ecology and environmental issues
• …
• Speeding up of change and technologic convergence
• Ubiquitous intelligence
• Market convergence • …
•Resources/ •Regulation/Rules • Markets/Regional Influence/Models
• Socio-economic References Global Framework of the “We cannot fail” Scenario
António Alvarenga António Alvarenga
“We cannot fail” - Synthesis
Portugal performs a number of structural changes in the functioning and positioning of its economy;
Macroeconomic and microeconomic policies simultaneously stimulate innovation, creativity and technological improvement moving the economy up in the value chain;
Containment of labour costs for companies so that the jobs needed to absorb a still abundant poorly skilled yet specialised workforce could be kept;
Ability to use "endogenous" resources and skills to attract strategic FDI;
Ability to work both the short term and the long term;
Awareness that short term investment wouldn’t be enough to design and build a sufficiently competitive and innovative economy 20 or 30 years into the future;
Ability to initiate and develop a number of projects designed to attract to Portugal high value added, knowledge-intensive activities;
Ability to tune in and synchronize with the more dynamic and innovative clusters and regions of the world economy (Europe, USA and Asia), bearing in mind the pro-active and selective manner in which Portugal, without forgetting its history, culture and natural integration into the European, Iberian and Portuguese speaking countries, positioned itself among these different regions and actors.
António Alvarenga António Alvarenga
Unexplored combination: in
a tense and unstable world,
with the “western world” going
through a difficult transition,
the external “levers” for the
transformations underlying C2
are, in most part, absent.
C2: “We cannot fail”: in a
growing and highly competitive
world, Portugal manages to
(re)position itself in the new
technological and innovation
waves that feed a global,
integrated and very dynamic
economy.
Unexplored combination:
possible scenario but less
ambitious than C2 (our option
was, in this case, to “exalt”, for
clarity purposes, the built
Scenarios)
C1: “Welcome”: in a world
going through a difficult and
unstable transition which
tended to reinforce the
peripheral nature of Portugal,
our country focused with
success on its comparative
traditional advantages:
“amenities”/natural resources,
cheap labour /”circumstantial”
access to the markets.
GF_B: Highly competitive globalisation; economic growth with effective ability for global
coordination and action
GF_A: Unstable world in a troubled transition; reactive, with protectionist tendencies
and an increase of the national and macro-regional specificities (political, economic and so on)
C2: “We cannot fail”
C1: “Welcome”
Long-term Socio-economic Scenarios for Portugal and their relation/compatibility with the Global Framework (GF)
António Alvarenga António Alvarenga
Quantification » not forecasts, but only possible evolution patterns of the variables. » The scenario period was divided into two periods with distinct characteristics: - 2011-2020, a closer time horizon in which, although the degree of uncertainty is very high, the historic trends still have considerable weight. Therefore, a reflection with some detail about the sectorial evolutions is possible. - 2021-2050, a much more distant period, in which the prospect of the variables’ evolution is related mainly with the perception of their relationship with the main trends and “structural characteristics” of each Scenario.
António Alvarenga António Alvarenga
Quantification » The following variables were quantified :
• Resident Population;
• Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at market prices;
• Households Private Consumption over the territory;
• Gross Value Added (GVA) at basic prices, by sector, using a sectorial disaggregation specifically defined for the project.
António Alvarenga António Alvarenga
António Alvarenga António Alvarenga
António Alvarenga António Alvarenga
António Alvarenga António Alvarenga
António Alvarenga António Alvarenga
Long-term Scenarios for the Portuguese Economy Roadmap
António Alvarenga António Alvarenga
Macroeconomic Scenarios
for Portugal - 2050
António Alvarenga António Alvarenga
International GDP Scenarios
(a) Source: World GDP: FMI (2013a e 2013b); UE GDP: Eurostat (2013)
Average annual rates of change in volume (%)
Estimate (a) Low Scenario High Scenario
2001-12 2013-16 2017-20 2021-50 2013-16 2017-20 2021-50
UE 1,3% 0,7% 1,2% 1,0% 1,3% 2,0% 2,0%
World 3,6% 3,3% 3,5% 2,7% 4,1% 4,5% 3,7%
António Alvarenga António Alvarenga
Estimate
levels(a)
Average annual rates of change in volume
Estimate Low Scenario High scenario
2012 2001-12 2013-16 2017-20 2021-50 2013-16 2017-20 2021-50
GDP (market
prices) 165,2 0,2% -0,4% 1,0% 1,0% 0,6% 2,9% 3,0%
Private
consumption of
residents
99,6 0,3% -1,0% 0,9% 1,0% 0,1% 2,7% 3,0%
Consumption of
residents outside
the territory
2,1 -1,5% 0,2% 0,9% 1,0% 1,4% 2,7% 3,0%
Consumption of
non-residents on
the territory
7,8 1,1% 3,9% 2,8% 2,1% 5,5% 3,8% 2,9%
Private
consumption of the
families in the
territory
105,4 0,4% -0,7% 1,0% 1,1% 0,5% 2,8% 3,0%
Resident
population (annual
average)
10 515 0,2% -0,3% -0,2% -0,4% -0,3% -0,1% 0,1%
GDP per capita 15,7 0,0% -0,1% 1,2% 1,4% 0,9% 2,9% 2,9%
Scenarios for Portugal
Source: INE (2013) (a) Values at current prices (billions of euros for GDP and consumption; thousand euros for GDP per capita); Population: thousands of people.
António Alvarenga António Alvarenga
www.cenariosportugal.com
Seixas, J, Fortes, P., Rodrigues, S. e Alvarenga, A.:
"From socio-economic scenarios to alternative
energy and carbon pathways" (aceite para
publicação), Technological Forecasting and Social
Change - International Journal.
António Alvarenga António Alvarenga
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