Upload File

ccs: driving deployment and reducing costsjun 16, 2011  · ccs costs too much, today technology...

  • Home
  • Documents
  • CCS: Driving Deployment and Reducing CostsJun 16, 2011  · CCS Costs Too Much, Today Technology Cost Comparison Real Levelized $/mWh, 2018 ISD, Merchant Financing Notes: 1.These are
16
CCS: Driving Deployment and Reducing Costs Kurt Waltzer Clean Air Task Force NSCL/NARUC Carbon Capture and Storage Institute Charleston, WV June 16, 2011

Upload: others

Post on 25-Apr-2020

1 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

Report

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: CCS: Driving Deployment and Reducing CostsJun 16, 2011  · CCS Costs Too Much, Today Technology Cost Comparison Real Levelized $/mWh, 2018 ISD, Merchant Financing Notes: 1.These are

CCS: Driving Deployment and

Reducing Costs

Kurt Waltzer

Clean Air Task Force

NSCL/NARUC Carbon Capture and Storage Institute

Charleston, WV

June 16, 2011

Page 2: CCS: Driving Deployment and Reducing CostsJun 16, 2011  · CCS Costs Too Much, Today Technology Cost Comparison Real Levelized $/mWh, 2018 ISD, Merchant Financing Notes: 1.These are

Overview

• Cost Reduction Objectives

• Enhanced Oil Recovery

• US China Collaboration

2

Page 3: CCS: Driving Deployment and Reducing CostsJun 16, 2011  · CCS Costs Too Much, Today Technology Cost Comparison Real Levelized $/mWh, 2018 ISD, Merchant Financing Notes: 1.These are

CCS Costs Too Much, Today

Technology Cost ComparisonReal Levelized $/mWh, 2018 ISD, Merchant Financing

Notes:

1. These are US costs. Absolute costs will be much lower in China, as will be the “spread” among the different technologies.

2. For intermittent technologies such as wind, no penalty is added for lower value of non-dispatchable power, or additional

capacity that needs to be built to provide back up power to offset unit intermittency.

Real levelized cost metric escalates from 2018 at 2.5% annually.

1

Page 4: CCS: Driving Deployment and Reducing CostsJun 16, 2011  · CCS Costs Too Much, Today Technology Cost Comparison Real Levelized $/mWh, 2018 ISD, Merchant Financing Notes: 1.These are

Pioneer Projects Phase

20 GW

Cost Reduction

Phase

100 GW

Mature Industry Phase

Full Deployment

The Carbon Capture and Storage Imperative| Slide 4

Phases of CCS Deployment

Global Objectives4

Page 5: CCS: Driving Deployment and Reducing CostsJun 16, 2011  · CCS Costs Too Much, Today Technology Cost Comparison Real Levelized $/mWh, 2018 ISD, Merchant Financing Notes: 1.These are

Deployment Will Drive Future Cost Savings

PCC Construction Costs Projected Drop: 30%*

*2014 cost estimate is for a scale “Nth” unit,

not a first-of-a-kind demonstration project.

Assumes 100 GW deployed

globally by late 2020’s

Source: NorthBrdige &

Associates5

Page 6: CCS: Driving Deployment and Reducing CostsJun 16, 2011  · CCS Costs Too Much, Today Technology Cost Comparison Real Levelized $/mWh, 2018 ISD, Merchant Financing Notes: 1.These are

Reducing CCS Costs

GOALS

Cost Reduction

Deployment

TOOLS

Enhanced Oil

Recovery

Collaborations

with China

6

Page 7: CCS: Driving Deployment and Reducing CostsJun 16, 2011  · CCS Costs Too Much, Today Technology Cost Comparison Real Levelized $/mWh, 2018 ISD, Merchant Financing Notes: 1.These are

The EOR Opportunity

27-35 billion barrels = $3 to $4 trillion

9 – 11 billion tons = 50 to 61 GW of 90% CCSSource: EIA, ARI 2010

##

######## #

#

###

#

##

# #

#

## ##

# #

#

#

##

##

#

#

##

####

## #

#

##

##

#

#

###

#

#

#

#

#

#

##

#

#

####

## #

#

###### ## #

##

##

#

###

#

##

#####

#

##

#

#####

#

##

##

#

#

# ## ###

###

## ###

##

#####

#

#

#

# ##

# #

#

##

#

#

#

###

#

#######

###

#

#

#

######

## ##

# #

#####

###############

# ###

## ####

#

####

# ##

### #

##

##

#####

#######

#

##

#

# ### ###

# # #

###

#

#

#

# #############

## #

#######

####

#####

########

#### #

#

#

###

### ##

#### #

#

#

#

###

#####

#

# ##

#

#

###

###

#

#

#

#

#

#

##

##

#

##

# ## ###

####

#######

## ##########

#

###

###

##

##### ###

##

# ##

##

####

####

##########

####

##

##

##

## ##

####

##

# #####

#

###

# #

#

#####

##

##

#

#

###

##

# #

#

###

#

#

#

##

#

##

###########

#

####

## ####

####

#### #########

####

####

###

######

##

###

##

##

#####

### ####

######

###

#

#

#

###

# ##

##

##

##

####

#

########

#####

#####

##### ## ##

## ##########

#####

#

#

###

##

#####

######

#

##

#####

###

####

###

####

##

## ####

##

#

#

#

#

#

##

#

#####

#

##

#

##

#

####

###

##

###

##

##### #

##

##

###

#

#

###

#

#

######

## ##

#

####

##

#

#

##

#####

#

#

#

##

###

##

#

#

#

######

##

#

####

##

####

### ##

#

#

# #

##

##

##

##

##

##

#

###

##

#

#

#

##

#

# ###

#

####

#

#

#

##

#

#

#

###

#

#

##

##

##

#

##

###

##

#

##

#

###

#

#

##

#

##

#

####

#

###

#

#

#

#

### #

# #

####

##

#

#

#

#

#

#

####

###

##

##

#

###

##

###

#

#### #

#

# #

#

#

##

####

#

# # #

##

#

#

#

#

## ## ## #

#

#

#

##

#

#

# ##

#

#

# ##

#

#

##

#

#

##

#

##

## ##

##

#

# #

##

#

##

### #####

# ####

## ######

### #

###

#####

#######

#

#####

##########

##

#

#

###

#

###

#######

##

##

###

#

###

#### #

#

#

## ####

##

######

#

##

#

#

##

###

##

####

#

###

#

#

#

## #

#

###

#

###

##

###

#

#

###

##

#

#

####

#

# #

####

#

#

#

###

##

#

#

###

#

##

#

#

##

#

##

##

##

#

#

#

###

#

##

#

##

##

#

###

##

#

#

#

#### ##### ######

#

#

###

#

##

#

##

#

#

#

#

##

#

#

#

##

#

# ##

#

##

##

##

##

#

#

#

##

##

#

##

#

###

#

# ##

##

# #### #

## ##

#####

# ###

# ## ###

####

###

#

##

#

##

###

#

#

#

#

#

# ##

##

##

#####

#

#

##

#

##

##

#

##

##

#

##

##

#

#

#####

####

###

#

#

##

###

#####

####

#

#

##

# ##

##

# #####

# #######

#

### ###

##

#

####

########

##

#

#

#

##

#

#

####

#

#

#########

#

##

#

##

#

#

####

##

#

#

###

##

####

##

##

## #

##

######

#

#

#

##

###

#

#

###

#

#

##

#

##

##

#

#

#

#

#

#

# ###

#

###

# ###

##

#

#

#

#

##

##

#

#

###

#

##

#

##

##

# ##

## #

###

#

#

##

## #

####

#

#

#

##

#

####

#

#

#

#

## ###

#

#

#

##

#

##

#

#

#

#

#

####

#

##

#

###

#

# # # ##

# ##

#

#

#

##

#

###

#

#

#

###

## #

##

#

##

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

##

##

# #

##

#

###

#

#

##

#

#

#

###

##

##

#

#

#

#

# ###

#

##

#

###

#

##

###

#

#

#

#

#

#

##

#

#

#

#

###

#

##

##

#

##

##

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

##

#

#

#

#

# #

##

#

##

#

#

#

## #

#

##

#

#

#

##

#

#

#

#

##

####

#

#

##

#

#

###

#

#

#

# #

#

##

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

## ##

#

#

##

##

#

#

##

##

#

#

#

##

#

##

###

##

#

#

#

##

#

# ##

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

##

#########

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

# ####

##### # #

# ##### ## ## ## ###

# ####

#

#

##

# #

##

#

#

##

#

#### ##

##########

###

#

##

##

#####

##

#

#

#

##

# ##

#

########

###

###

## ##

#

##

# ###

#######

#######

#

#

#####

#

##

#####

## #

#

## ##

#

####

#

#

#

#

#

#

###

# #

#

#

####

# ######

#

#

##

#

## #

#### #

#

#

##

#

#

#######

###

##

## ##

###

###### ################

#

####

#############

##########

###

#

##

#####

##########

####

#

###

###

######

#

###

#############

#

#############

############ #

########

#

#

##

#

#

####

# #####

#

#

##

####

#

#

#

####

#

##################

######

#

#

##

#S#S#S#S

#S

#S#S#S

#S

#S#S#S#S

#S#S

#S#S

#S

Existing Oil Fields

Planned Oil Fields

Candidate Oil Fields

With ROZs and Advanced flooding, demand could be

as high as 19.5 billion tons of CO2 7

Page 8: CCS: Driving Deployment and Reducing CostsJun 16, 2011  · CCS Costs Too Much, Today Technology Cost Comparison Real Levelized $/mWh, 2018 ISD, Merchant Financing Notes: 1.These are

More CO2 is needed for future EOR

8

Page 9: CCS: Driving Deployment and Reducing CostsJun 16, 2011  · CCS Costs Too Much, Today Technology Cost Comparison Real Levelized $/mWh, 2018 ISD, Merchant Financing Notes: 1.These are

The CO2-EOR barrel

Source: EIA, ARI 2010

3 tons

CO2

Injection

9

Page 10: CCS: Driving Deployment and Reducing CostsJun 16, 2011  · CCS Costs Too Much, Today Technology Cost Comparison Real Levelized $/mWh, 2018 ISD, Merchant Financing Notes: 1.These are

The CO2-EOR barrel

Source: ARI ,NRDC

Fed Tax

revenue:

$69 per

ton of

CO2

CO2

Revenue:

$30 per

ton$33

Cap&OpEx, Royalty Owners

$10 for CO2 ($30/ton)

$5 to states

$23US Treasury

$29EOR net income

10

Page 11: CCS: Driving Deployment and Reducing CostsJun 16, 2011  · CCS Costs Too Much, Today Technology Cost Comparison Real Levelized $/mWh, 2018 ISD, Merchant Financing Notes: 1.These are

Potential Net Federal revenue from CCS-

EOR

Source: EIA, ARI, NRDC 2011-$8,000

-$6,000

-$4,000

-$2,000

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

Millio

ns (

2009$)

Federal CCS-EOR Tax Revenue Federal CCS-EOR Incentives

Net Revenue Value of Federal Incentives for CCS-Enhanced Oil Recovery(Up to 100 million tons per year, average incentive level of $70/ton/10 yrs)

CO2 sequestered = 3 billion tons

Oil produced = 9 billion barrels

Total oil value = $1.05 Trillion

CCS incentives = $70 billion

EOR revenue = $180 billion

NPV (3.5% DR) = $40 billion

11

Page 12: CCS: Driving Deployment and Reducing CostsJun 16, 2011  · CCS Costs Too Much, Today Technology Cost Comparison Real Levelized $/mWh, 2018 ISD, Merchant Financing Notes: 1.These are

The China Opportunity

ChinaLow Cost PCC

manufacturing

Speed of

Construction

USEOR depth

Innovation

strength+ =

Potential Benefits

• Large CCS deployment in China where fossil growth is occurring

• Technical uncertainty eliminated.

• Lower CCS costs in West due to “Nth” plant

• Faster CCS deployment and innovation worldwide

12

Page 13: CCS: Driving Deployment and Reducing CostsJun 16, 2011  · CCS Costs Too Much, Today Technology Cost Comparison Real Levelized $/mWh, 2018 ISD, Merchant Financing Notes: 1.These are

17

China Opportunity: CCS-EOR is economic

with little subsidy

.

CO2 capture and compression costs

from fossil-fueled power plant in $/ton

EOR value of

CO2 ($/ton)

US

China

Page 14: CCS: Driving Deployment and Reducing CostsJun 16, 2011  · CCS Costs Too Much, Today Technology Cost Comparison Real Levelized $/mWh, 2018 ISD, Merchant Financing Notes: 1.These are

China’s CCS Innovation

Leveraging China’s market to accelerate US advances

&

Capture and compression advances and

innovation from China

CCS project costs to be lowered in US and China

14

Page 15: CCS: Driving Deployment and Reducing CostsJun 16, 2011  · CCS Costs Too Much, Today Technology Cost Comparison Real Levelized $/mWh, 2018 ISD, Merchant Financing Notes: 1.These are

Policy Goals

Expand domestic oil

production by 900 million

barrels through EOR

Establish CO2 capture

from power plants as a

mature technology

through wide application

Establish early saline

injection projects

DESIGN

STATE CCS

POLICY AS A

DRIVER FOR

FEDERAL

POLICY

15

Page 16: CCS: Driving Deployment and Reducing CostsJun 16, 2011  · CCS Costs Too Much, Today Technology Cost Comparison Real Levelized $/mWh, 2018 ISD, Merchant Financing Notes: 1.These are

Takeaways

• For EOR:

• Near-term incentives (tax credits, rate recovery)

• Can produce long term benefits (revenue, lower

rates)

• US China Collaboration Benefits:

• Accelerates US tech commercialization

• Access to lower cost China innovation

• China investment and learning on CO2

EOR/Sequestration

16


Summary · Web viewAnnual air quality benefit calculation: (6.76 MWh/day)($6.00 per MWh)(365) = $14,804.40. Five-year air quality benefit calculation: (6.76 MWh/day)($6.00 per MWh)(365)(5)

MWH corporate brochure_English

MWH-Q2U3: Packet

MWH Shale Gas Fracking

Levelized Cost of Energy - Lazard · PDF fileLazard’s Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis (“LCOE”) addresses the following topics: Comparative “levelized cost of energy” analysis

MWH Project

Comparative Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis EERA

Managerial Flexibility in Levelized Cost Measures: A

Offshore wind energy Levelized cost of electricity

UBC Undertakings - British Columbia Utilities Commission … · UBC Undertakings September 18, 2015 1 UBC Undertakings . 1. Confirm exhibit 33 NDES levelized rate of $121/MWh (Volume

MWH – The Cold War

Martin Klein, Christoph Schimeczek¤sentationSchimeczekFinal.pdf · Price optimisation criterion Target Model Standard deviation /€/MWh 12.64 11.68 Mean /€/MWh 30.30 28.37 €/MWh

MWH Nuclear Services

MWH Newsletter PDF

Levelized Cost of Electricity

(1,200 MWh) - Econologie.com

Celebrating CIRScirsconference.sites.olt.ubc.ca/files/2011/11/... · CIRS EOS UBC Steam Plant 860 – 585 = 275 MWh Net positive energy use 1600 MWh 1600-600= 1000 MWh 585 MWh elec

Third Quarter 20192).pdf · 15-minute intervals cleared at $9,000/MWh $1,743/MWh 5x16 settle price on August 15, 2019 $131/MWh Average 7x24 settle price in August, compared to ~$30/MWh

Comparative Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis

Levelized Cost and Levelized Avoided Cost of New ...The capacity-weighted average is the average levelized cost per technology, weighted by the new capacity coming online in each region

Lazard’s Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis—Version 12 · Levelized Cost of Energy Comparison—Sensitivity to Cost of Capital LAZARD’S LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY ANALYSIS—V

Encina Wastewater Authority’s Recycling Program · Co-Generation. 2018 • 14,993 Mwh 236,067,000 standard cubic feet 2017 • 13,482 Mwh 210,640,000 scf 2016 • 12,963 Mwh 203,226,000

Harnessing as having the right technology. the Power of Wind · 2009 2015 COST 101-169 US$/MWh (USA) 77-32 US$/MWh (USA) LEVELIZED COST OF ELECTRICITY (LCOE) ON A PATH TO SUBSIDY

Lazards Levelized Cost of Storage Analysis 1.0

XBID webinar presentation, June...100 MWh 100 €/MWh 10 000 € 0 € - 3 000 € 100 MWh 150 €/MWh 15 000 € 5 000 € 1 000 € 4 000 € 50 MWh 500 €/MWh 25 000 € 15 000

Levelized Cost of Energy Calculation_BV_EN

News WHAT’S - MWH Constructors · 2018. 7. 9. · MWH Constructors Awarded Contract by American Water Enterprises, Inc American Water Enterprises, Inc. (AWE) awarded MWH Constructors

Lazard’s Levelized Cost of Storage Analysis—Version 6€¦ · LAZARD’S LEVELIZED COST OF STORAGE ANALYSIS—VERSION 6.0. Table of Contents I INTRODUCTION 1 II LAZARD’S LEVELIZED

Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) · Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) 1 . 2 Upfront Capital Costs for Renewables Upfront costs do not paint a complete picture . 3 Key Concept: Levelized

Convergent energy disruptions...power price range wind PPAs utility-scale solar PPAs levelized 2014 US $/MWh x ** lowest unsubsidized world bids * The range of prices for US wholesale

Cost‐Effectiveness Analysis A Tail of Two Solutions...(MWa) Levelized Cost (2006$/MWH) Lost‐Opp Retrofit It was the spring of hope . . . Levelized Cost of CCCT @ PNW Max. CF &

levelized cost of electricity renewable energy technologies

Service Manual - WebstaurantStore.com · KMD-460MAH, MWH KMD-530MAH, MWH, MRH KML-250MAH, MWH KML-351MAH, MWH KML-451MAH, MWH KML-631MAH, MWH, MRH Modular Crescent Cuber with “G”

Haapanen_120905-MWH Wood.pdf

Lazard Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis