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Climate Change, its Consequences

on Employment and Trade Union ActionA Training Manual for Workers and Trade Unions

Sustainlabour

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UNEP

UNEP promotes

environmentally sound practices

globally and in its own activities.

This publication is printed on paper romsustainable orests including recycled fbre. The

paper is chlorine ree, and the inks vegetable-

based. Our distribution policy aims to

reduce UNEPs carbon ootprint.

Cover page: Roger Braithwaite / Still Pictures

Global Warming, Greenland. A stream o melt water cascading of the vast Arctic ice sheet which covers Greenland.

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Climate Change, i ts Consequences on Employment and Trade Union Action

CLIMATECHANGE,ITSCONSEQUENCESONEMPLOYMENTANDTRADEUNIONACTION

A training manual for workers and trade unions

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Co pyright 2 0 0 8 , United N ations Environment Programme

ISBN : 97 8-92 -80 7-29 60 -3, UN EP Job N umber: DRC/ 10 82 / N A

Disclaimers:

The content and views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views or policiesof the United N ations Environment Programme (UN EP) neither do they imply any endo rsement. Thedesignations employed a nd the p resentation o f material in this publication do not imply the expressionof any opinion wha tsoever on the part of UN EP concerning the lega l status of any country, territoryor city or its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers and bo undaries. M ention of acommercial compa ny or product in this pub lica tion does not imply the endo rsement of UN EP.

M ap s, p hotos and illustrations as specified.

Reproduction:This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part and in any form for educational and non-profit purposes without specia l permission from the copyright holder, provided that acknowledgementof the source is made. UN EP w ould ap precia te receiving a cop y of any publica tion that usesthis material as a source. N o use of this publication may be ma de fo r the resale o r for any o thercommercial p urposes whatsoever w ithout the p rior permission in w riting of UN EP. Applica tions forsuch permission, with a statement of purpose of the reproduction, should be addressed to the Divisionof C ommunications and Public Information (DCPI), UN EP, P.O . Box 3 0 5 5 2 , N airobi 0 0 1 0 0 , Kenya.For bibliography purposes this document may be cited as:

UNEP/ Sustainlabour, Climate Change, its Consequences on Employment and Trade Union Action:Training manual for workers and trade unions, 2008

Produced by:

The International Labour Foundation for Sustainable Development (Sustainlabour)G eneral Cabrera 2 1 - 28 02 0 M adrid, SpainW ebsite: http:/ / ww w.sustainlabour.org

And:

United N ations Environment ProgrammeP. O . Box. 30 5 5 2 N airobi, Kenya

For more information on this publication, send an email to [email protected]

This publication is available for dow nload at http:/ / w w w.unep.org/ civil_society

Printing:

United N ations O ffice at N airobi, Publishing Services Section (UN O N )

Distribution:

SMI Distribution Servic-es, Ltd, UK. This pub lica tion is available from Earthprint:http:/ / ww w.earthprint.com

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Training Manual

Prepared by the

International Labour Foundation for

Sustainable Development

(Sustainlabour)

United Nations Environment

Programme

As part of their joint project on

Strengthening trade union participation to international

environmental processes

Funded b y the G overnment of Spain

Sustainlabour

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ACKN O W LEDGEM EN TSThe preparation of the Training M anual on C limate Change, its Consequences onEmployment and Trade Union Action has involved many individuals and organizations.UN EP and Sustainlabour wish to express their gratitude to authors, contributors and review ersthat have made this possible.

UN EP and Sustainlabour w ish to acknow ledg e, in pa rticular, the contributions from theInternationa l Lab our O rganiza tion (ILO ), and the International Trade Union Confederation(ITUC) and its affiliates.

O ur pa rticular thanks are extended to the Government of Spain for its support to wo rkersand trade unions, and UN EP.

PRO DUCTIO N TEAMLead Authors:

Anabella Rosemberg, Climate Change Consultant, Sustainlabour

Laura M artn Murillo, Director, Sustainlabour

Contributors:

Jess G arca Jimnez, Technica l Coordina tor, Socia l Security for Trade Unio nsProject, Regio nal O ffice for Latin America and the C aribbean, International Lab ourO rganiza tion (ILO )

Laura M affei , Consultant, Sustainlabour

Joaquin N ieto Sinz, President, Sutainlabour

Peter Poschen, Senior Sustainable Development Specialist, International LabourO rganiza tion (ILO )

Ana Beln Snchez, Internationa l Lab our Organiza tion (ILO )

UNEP Review/ Edition Team:

O livier Deleuze, C hief, M ajo r Groups and Stakeholders Branch, Division ofRegional C oop eration (DRC), UN EP

Emanuela M enichetti, Associa te Programme O fficer, Energy Branch, Division ofTechno log y, Industry and Economics (DTIE), UN EP

Fatou N doye, Programme O fficer, M ajo r Groups and Stakeholders Branch,Division o f Regional C oop eration (DRC), UN EP

Ho rtense Palmier, Associate Project O fficer, M ajor G roups and StakeholdersBranch, Division o f Regio nal Coop eration (DRC), UN EP

M ark Rad ka, C hief, Energy Branch, Division of Technology, Industry and Economics(DTIE), UN EP

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TABLEO FCO N TEN TS

Acknowledgements............................................................................................... v

Production team ................................................................................................... v

Table of contents ................................................................................................ vii

Background ...................................................................................................... viii

Introduction ........................................................................................................ xi

Module 1: Introduction to climate change .............................................................. 1Unit 1 : Climate change and its consequences .... ... .... ... .... ... .... ... .... .... ... .... ... 7

Unit 2: M itigation ..................................................................................1 9

Unit 3: Adaptation ....... ....... ....... ....... ....... ....... ....... ....... ....... ....... ....... ...2 9

Unit 4: Economics of climate change ....... ....... ........ ....... ....... ....... ....... ...... 3 7

Unit 5 : International governance of climate change .... ... .... ... .... ... .... .... ... .... .4 3

Module 2: Consequences of climate change on employment ................................. 51

Unit 1 : Effects of climate change on employment ... .... ... .... ... .... ... .... ... .... ... ... 5 7

Unit 2 : Effects of adap tation on employment... .... ... .... ... .... ... .... ... .... .... ... .... .6 3

Unit 3 : Effects of mitigation on employment ... ... .... .... ... .... ... .... ... .... ... .... ... ... 7 3

Module 3: Trade union action on climate change ................................................. 83

Unit 1 : Bringing justice and equity together: W hich tools for advancinga fair transition? ....... ....... ....... ....... ....... ....... ....... ....... ....... ....... .... 8 9

Unit 2 : The role of trade unions in key sectors: W hat can we do to reduceemissions? ................................................................................97

Unit 3 : From unions to the world: Trade union participa tion in internationaldebates...................................................................................1 01

Unit 4 : From unions to the regions: Sustainable develop ment w ith a regionalperspective ..............................................................................107

Unit 5 : From unions to go vernments and civil society: working at thenational level............................................................................111

Unit 6 : From unions to enterprises: reducing emissions in the workplace .. .. .. .. .1 1 9

Unit 7 : Unions and their members: Climate Change Education .. .. .. ... .. ... .. .. .. 1 2 3

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BACKG RO UN DThe Training M anual on Climate Change, its Consequences on Employment and TradeUnion Action is developed under the framework of the project Strengthening tradeunion participation in international environmental processes, jointly implemented by theUnited N ations Environment programme (UN EP), the International Lab our Founda tion forSustainable Development (Sustainlabour), in collaboration with the International Trade UnionConfederation (ITUC), and i ts affiliates, the International Lab our O rganiza tion (ILO ), theW orld Health O rganization (W HO ) and the Government of Spain.

The overall objective of the project is to improve engagement of workers and trade unionsin the development and implementation of environmental policy, as recommended by theTrade Union Assembly o n Lab our and the Environment at its first meeting in January 2 0 0 6 .

The main purpose of the training component of the project is to address a clear gap andlack of knowledge of the environmental issues at stake regionally and globally in the tradeunion movement. The training component of the project focuses on two topics:

a. Climate change, its consequences on employment and trade union action, andthe need for alternative methods of production and just transition;

b. Sound and sustainable management of chemicals and how to integrate justemployment into environmental po licy d esign.

Manual objective

The purpose of this M anual is to enhance understanding of climate change a nd relatedmitigation and adaptation issues and their consequences on employment.

Trade Unions are uniquely placed to sensitize workers about the impact of climate changeon employment patterns, to promote and demand that both public and private sectorsdevelop programmes on climate change mitigation and adaptation, as well as to trainworkers to contribute and verify that these measures are adequately implemented.

In this regard, access to information and training are necessary to improve workingcondi tions. The purpose of this Manual is to p rovide w orkers and trad e unions w ith generalinformation and guidance on how to deal w ith climate change.

Manual format and content

The M anual is designed in modular format and may b e used integrally or pa rtially inmodules, depending on the purpose and duration of the training. The content is designedto be applicable at different spatial levels from the national, sub-regional, regional, andgloba l level. M odules can be studied not necessarily in a chronological order. It containsseveral case studies to illustrate the theoretical aspects of the manual.

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The expected length of the training period is three days, how ever the M anual is designedin such a way that trainers may add or leave out sections for a specific training session to

shorten or lengthen the suggested training.The M anual targets mainly w orkers and trade unions, both from d eveloping countries andcountries with economies in transition from Africa, Asia and the Pacific, Eastern Europe, andLatin America and the Ca ribbean. The M anual is elaborated for women and men, w orkers,who are in industry, agriculture, government and other public or private sectors, to enablethem carefully consider the potential risks and opportunities of climate change as regardsemployment, and take appropriate actions at the local, national or international levels.

The M anual targets experienced o r inexperienced w orkers and trade unions in climatechange issues. It attempts to combine different types and levels of information to suit theneeds and interests of all; though, it targets mainly an inexperienced audience.

The first module provides a broad overview of the causes and consequences of climatechange globally. It is a general introduction to key concepts such as adaptation andmitigation. It also gives a b road overview of the economics and the international governanceof climate change.

The second module analyses in depth the potential consequences of climate change, andmitigation and adaptation measures on employment.

The last module explores the way trade unions can contribute to climate change actionfrom the international to the workplace level. The objective is to introduce briefly themain mechanisms in place, but particularly to underline the importance of civil societysparticipation, namely workers and trade unions.

Course evaluation

At the end of the training, an evaluation is requested from the trainees. The evaluation allowstrainees to highlight points that will assist trainers to improve their delivery of the course, andto facilitate the review and revision o f the M anual over time.

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IN TRO DUCTIO NThe training manual is developed in the framework of the project titled Strengthening tradeunion participation in international environmental processes, jointly implemented by theUnited N ations Environment Programme (UN EP), the International Lab our Founda tion forSustainable Development (Sustainlabour), and in collaboration with the International TradeUnion Confederation (ITUC), and i ts affiliates, the International Lab our O rga niza tion (ILO ),the W orld Health O rganization (W HO ) and the G overnment of Spa in.

The overall objective of the project is to improve workers and trade union engagement in thedevelopment and implementation of environmental policy, as recommended by the TradeUnion Assembly on Lab our and the Environment (15 -1 7 January 2 0 0 6 ) at its first meeting.

The Trade Union Assembly on Labour and the Environment(Nairobi, Kenya, 15-17 January 2006)

The trade union participation was organized into two levels:

Through five work groups: 1) climate change and energy policies; 2) chemical risk:dangerous substances in the workplace; 3) trade union activities for equitable, sustainableaccess to resources and services, access to water; 4) corporate social responsibility andaccountability; 5) occupational health, environmental and public health: the campaignsto fight asbestos and HIV/ AIDS. The w ritten reports of the w ork groups were used to

produce a manual of contributions: the Assembly w ork manual.

Approximately twenty case studies were compiled, in which specific experiences weredescribed.

The Trade Union Assemby brought together over 150 trade union representatives from developingand developed countries, along with environmental and sustainable development experts andrepresentatives of Go vernments and the United N ations.

It confirmed that the three relevant United N ations bod ies (UN EP, ILO , W HO ) werecommitted to supp orting trade union engagement on sustainable development;

It confirmed that unions were engaged in practical steps through their activities to advancesustainable development and that they were are committed to extending that work as a

priority;

The Assembly agreed:

To strengthen the link betw een poverty reduction, environmental protection and d ecentwork. Decent and secure jobs are essential for people to have a sustainable livelihood.Creating decent and secure jobs is only possible, however, if environmental sustainabilityis attained: hence the need to embrace the poverty reduction and sustainable developmentgo als contained in the M illennium Decla ration and Joha nnesburg Plan of Implementationthrough the promotion of decent employment and environmental responsibility. This mustalso include the mainstreaming of gender issues;

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The Training Manual on Climate Change for Workers and Trade Unions

Trade Unions are uniquely placed to sensitize workers about the impact of climate changeand climate change policies on the world of work and production, as well as to trainworkers to assist and reinforce climate-friendly policies at all their levels of influence.

Climate change is the main environmental problem facing humanity. It is the cause of themultiplication of extreme weather events, such as draught, floods, heat and cold waves. Itsconsequences are aggravated desertification and erosion processes as well as irreversible

changes in ecosystems and the loss of biodiversity.

Climate change and subsequent changes in the environment will affect all aspects of ourlives: food and water supplies, the patterns and influence zones of diseases, and also theway we produce and consume, as far as these are at the origin of climate change. It willcertainly also have effects on employment which we will analyze in the second module ofthis training manual.

Thus trade unions and workers need to understand the causes of these disruptions, in orderto ensure a better participation in the discussions and propose measures that strengthen thefight against climate change by multiplying positive changes and avoiding the sufferinginflected by negative changes.

To integrate the environmental and social dimensions of sustainable development withrights-based approach. Fundamental rights of workers such as freedom of association

and collective barga ining must be respected i f w orkers and their unions are to b e ab le toenga ge in strategies for sustainable d evelopment. M oreover, human rights must includethe universal, equitable, egalitarian and environmentally sound access to basic resourcessuch as water and energy;

To take urgent action o n climate change in support of the United N ations Framewo rkConvention on Climate Change and its Kyoto Protocol; to develop new and additionalagreements for both developed and developing countries, taking account of commonbut differentiated responsibilities; to anticipate and minimize the negative effects andmaximize the positive effects on employment of mitigation; and to ensure the pa rticipationof trade unions in decision-making on climate change strategies.

M ore information is availa ble at:

http:/ / www.unep.org/ labour_environment/ PDFs/ TUALEfinalresolution-EN G.pdf

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Module 1:Module 1:Introduction to climate chanIntroduction to climate changege

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Shinde - UN EP / Still PicturesCo al mine and w ind turbines, India

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MODULE OBJECTIVES:

The module aims at:

Providing basic information about climate change, its natural and human causes, andconsequences;

Introducing the concepts of climate change mitigation and adaptation;

Providing an estimate of the costs of climate change and of actions to tackle it;

Describing international mechanisms that address the climate change challenge.

LEARNING OUTCOMES:

At the end of the session, the trainee will be familiar with:

The link between greenhouse gas emissions from human activities and climatechange;

The existing a nd medium/ long term impacts of climate change on d ifferent regio nsand sectors, and related costs;

The different options available to tackle climate change and related cost.

The ob jectives and mechanisms of the United N ations Framework Convention o nClimate Change and the Kyoto Protocol.

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IN TRO DUCTIO N TO M O DULE 1Climate change is the main environmental problem facing humanity. It is the cause of themultiplication of extreme weather events, such as draught, floods, heat and cold waves. Itsconsequences are aggravated desertification and erosion processes as well as irreversiblechanges in ecosystems and loss of biodiversity.

Climate change and subsequent changes in the environment will, of course, affect all aspectsof our lives: food and water supplies, the patterns and influence zones of diseases, and alsothe way we produce and consume. It will certainly also have effects on employment.

Thus trade unions and workers need to understand the causes of these disruptions, in orderto ensure a better participation in the discussions and propose measures that strengthen thefight against climate change. This would be possible by multiplying positive changes andavoiding the suffering inflicted by negative changes.

This first module comprises five units:

In the first unit we will see that changes in the climate are natural. However, humanactivity has modified the patterns of this natural climate change and today we risk a globalcatastrophe w ith grave environmental, socia l and economic consequences.

In the second unit, we will see how growth has damaged the natural climate equilibriumand present available options for each economic sector to reduce its impact.

In the third unit, we will deal with the need of our societies to adapt to climate change,

and to protect the most vulnerable from suffering the worst consequences of this problem.W e also make a special mention of the link between development conditions and ab ility toadapt to climate change.

Unit four is about costs. First we will study the cost of fighting climate change and reducingour emissions of G reenhouse G ases (GH G ) to p revent a tempera ture rise of a t least 2-3 C. N ext we w ill see that the cost of inaction could have a much larger impa ct on our livesand thus be far more costly.

In the fifth and last unit, we will see what steps have been taken by the internationalcommunity to combat climate change and we will explain why collective action is urgentlyneeded at the international, national, sectoral and community level to counteract climate

change.

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Unit 1: Climate change and its consequences

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WHYISTHECLIMATECHANGING?

Climate refers to the average weather experienced over a long period, typically 30years. This includes temperature, wind and rainfall patterns. The Earths climate is not static,and has changed many times in response to a variety of natural causes.

The term climate change usually refers to changes that have been observed since theearly 1900s. These changes in global climate are likely to be due to a combination of bothnatural and human causes:

Natural causes

The Earths climate varies naturally as a result of interactions between the oceanand the atmosphere, changes in the Earths orbit, fluctuations in energy receivedfrom the sun, and volcanic eruptions.

Human causes

The main human influence on global climate is likely to be emissions of greenhousegases (GHG) such as carbon dioxide (CO

2) and methane (CH

4).

Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide haveincreased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values determined from ice cores spanning many thousands of years. The globalincreases in carbon dioxide concentration are due primarily to fossil fuel use and landuse change, while those of methane and nitrous oxide are primarily due to agriculture. 1

UN IT 1 : CLIM ATE CHAN G E AN D ITS

CO N SEQ UEN CES

KEYIDEAS

Changes in climate are natural.

However, human activity has modified climate change patterns.

As a consequence, today we risk a global catastrophe with environmental, social andeconomic impacts.

1 IPCC (20 0 7 ). Fourth Assessment Report. W orking group I report. p2 , Summary for Policy M akers. The IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change (IPCC) is composed of scientists from all over the world. The IPCC analyses in an exhaustive,objective, open and transparent manner, scientific, technical and socio-economical information on climate change risks,adap tation and mitiga tion. M ore than 25 00 scientists pa rticipated in the elabo ration of their last report, the FourthAssessment Review, N ovember 2 00 7 . For more information about the IPCC, p lease consult Unit 5 of this M odule or IPCCwebsite: w ww .ipcc.ch

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Box 1.1. Evolution of atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane

and nitrous oxide

Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide over the last 10,000 years(large pa nels) and since 1 7 5 0 (inset panels). M easurements are shown from ice cores (symbols w ithdifferent colours for different studies) and atmospheric samples (red lines). The corresponding radiativeforcings are show n on the right hand axes of the large panels.

Source: IPCC (20 0 7 ). Fourth Assessment Repo rt. Summary fo r Policy M akers

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Box 1.2. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Climate change i s a very comp lex issue: policymakers need an ob jective source of informationabout the causes of climate change, its potential environmental and socio-economicconsequences, and the adaptation and mitigation options to respond to it. This is why theW orld M eteorologica l O rganization (W M O ) and United N ations Environment Programme(UN EP) established the Intergovernmental Panel on C limate Change (IPCC) in 1 9 8 8 .

The IPCC is a scientific body: the information it provides with its reports is based on scientificevidence and reflects existing view po ints w ithin the scientific community. The comprehensivenessof the scientific content is achieved through contributions from experts in all regions of the worldand all relevant disciplines including , w here app ropriately documented, i ndustry literature andtrad itional p ractices, and a two-stage review process by experts and governments.

Because of its intergovernmental nature, the IPCC is able to provide scientific, technical andsocio -economic information in a po licy-relevant, yet politically neutral, w ay to dec ision makers.W hen governments accep t the IPCC rep orts and a pp rove their Summary for Policymakers,they a cknowledge the legi timacy of their scientific content.

The IPCC delivers its reports at regular intervals. As soon as they are published, these reportsimmediately become standard works of reference, widely used by policymakers, experts andstudents. The findings of the first IPCC Assessment Report of 1990 played a decisive role inleading to the United N ations Framewo rk Convention on Climate Change (UN FCCC), w hichw as opened for signa ture in the Rio d e Janeiro Summit in 19 9 2 and entered into force in1994. It provides the overall policy framework for addressing the climate change issue. TheIPCC Second Assessment Report of 1995 provided key input for the negotiations of the KyotoProtocol in 19 9 7 . The Third Assessment Report of 2 0 0 1 as well as Specia l and M ethodolog y

Reports provided further information relevant for the d evelopment of the UN FCCC and theKyoto Protocol. The IPCC continues to be a major source of information for the negotiationsunder the UN FCC C.

Source: IPCC , w ww .ipcc.ch

HOW ANDWHYCONCENTRATIONSOFTHESEGASESARERISINGINTHEATMOSPHERE?

The rise in G HG concentrations in the atmosphere is a d irect consequence of our prod uctive,economic and social model, based since the XIX century on an unsustainable increase in the

use of energy, 85% of which comes from fossil sources (coal, oil and gas).

Rise in Greenhouse Gas concentrations] Rise in temperatures

O nly human activity can exp lain the rise in tempera tures in the second p art of the XX century.The linear warming trend o ver the last 50 years (0 .1 3 C per decade) is nearly tw ice that forthe last 100 years.2 This means the average speed with which temperatures have increasedin the last fifty years has doubled over the whole century. Eleven of the last twelve years(19952006) rank among the twelve warmest since 1850.

2 IPCC (2 00 7 ). Fourth Assessment Report. W orking group I report.

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Box 1.3. Greenhouse gases*: sources and relative global warming potential (GWP)

Almost every sector in which we work, or which provide us goods or services emitsgreenhouse gases. Industry, transport, electricity generation, heating, some agricultural

practices, as well as industrial and domestic cooling and heating systems are examples ofhuman activities that contribute to G HG emissions. Due to the seriousness of climate changeimpacts, these sectors are likely to face great transformations in the coming years, if wewant climate change to be kept at a safe level.

* Ranked according to their contributions in globa l wa rming

* * G loba l wa rming potential (GW P) is a measure of how much a gi ven mass of greenhouse gas isestimated to contribute to global warming. It is a relative scale which compares the gas in question to thatof the same mass of carbon d ioxide (CO

2, w hose G W P is by definition 1 ).

Source: IPCC (20 0 7 ). Fourth Assessment Repo rt.

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(a)GlobalannualemissionsofanthropogenicGHGsfrom1970to2004

(IncludesonlyCO

2,

CH

4,

N2

O,

HFCs,PFCsandSF6whoseemissionsarecovered

bytheUNFCCC.

TheseGHGsa

reweightedbytheir100-yearGlobalWarmingPotentials,

usingvaluesconsistentwithreportingundertheUNFCCC.)

(b)

ShareofdifferentanthropogenicG

HGsintotalemissionsin2004interm

sofCO

2-eq.

(c)ShareofdifferentsectorsintotalanthropogenicGHGemissionsin

2004intermsofCO

2-eq.

(Forestryincludesdeforestation)

Source:IPCC(2007).FourthAssessmentReport.Synthesisreport.SummaryforPolicyMakers

Box1.4.

GlobalanthropogenicG-HGe

missions

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CONSEQUENCESOF CLIMATE CHANGE

G reenhouse gases remain in the atmosphere for some time. Long-lived greenhouse gases(LLG HG s) - for example, CO

2, methane (CH

4) and nitrous oxide (N

2O ) - are chemically

stable and persist in the atmosphere over time scales ranging from a decade to centuries orlonger. Thus, their emissions have a long-term influence on climate.

This means that even if we were to stop emitting these gases today, the Earth would takemore than a hundred years to stabilize its GHG atmospheric concentrations, which wouldkeep temperature growing for 200 more years.

Climate varies naturally and the average temperature at the Earths surface normally variesbetween 5 -6 C every 10 0 ,0 0 0 years. W ithin these long periods of time, living beings havetime to adapt to changes in temperature. M ankind how ever is inducing drastic changes in

the climate in a very short period of time. This means that all species have to adapt to thesechanges very quickly, which is not possible in many cases.

Rises in temperatures are one of the multiple consequences of climate change. Rises in thelevel of the oceans, changes in w ind pa tterns and a multiplication o f extreme w eather eventsare other examples. Fragile and vulnerable species are already suffering from consequencesof these changes, and will in the future face the worst part.

Human beings will also have to adapt to new climatic conditions. Yet, the indirectconsequences of climate change will possibly be even harder to assume (changes inagriculture, water availability, etc).

HOW WILLCHANGESINTHECLIMATEAFFECTTHEENVIRONMENT?

The 20 0 7 IPCC report concluded that observational evidence from a ll continents and mostoceans shows that many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes,particularly temperature increases.3

Climate change is affecting negatively the number and size of glacial lakes, producingchanges in Arctic and Antarctic ecosystems. These include sea-ice biomes and predatorshigh in the food chain.

3 IPCC (20 07 ). Fourth Assessment Report. W orking group II report.

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Its effects are a lso visible on hydrolog y, such as wa rming of lakes and rivers, and on terrestrialbiological systems, such as earlier timing of spring events leaf unfolding, bird migration,

egg-laying4

. O ther changes in marine and freshwater systems are a lso associated w ithrising temperatures, such as changes in salinity, oxygen levels, etc. These include changesin algal, plankton and fish abundance in high-latitude oceans, and changes and earliermigration of fish in rivers.

Human environments and activities are a ffected b y natural environments. Then chang es suchas those mentioned above w ill certainly affect mankind. Actually, climate change effects onhuman beings and their prod uctive activities are alread y visible.

WHATABOUTUS?

Human beings will suffer directly from the effects of climate change as the environmentsin which they live are altered. For example, more than half of the worlds population nowlives within 60km away from the sea and, since rising sea levels increase the risk of coastalflooding, many of these populations may be displaced or have to migrate in the comingyears. Among the most vulnerab le regions to co astal flooding are the N ile delta in Egyp t,the G anges-Brahmaputra delta in Bangladesh, and almost all small islands.

Rising temperatures and variable precipitation are likely to decrease the production of foodin many of the poorest regions, increasing risks of malnutrition and hunger.

W e know also that climate change significantly increased the likelihood of episodes suchas the European summer heatwave of 2003.

Addi tionally, a greater variab ility in precipitation patterns is likely to compromise the supplyof freshwater and increase the risk of water-borne diseases.

Changes in climate are also likely to leng then the transmission seasons of important diseasessuch as malaria and dengue (called vector-borne diseases), and to alter their geographicrange, potentially bringing them to regions which lack either population immunity or astrong public hea lth infrastructure to counteract their spread. In a first assessment in 20 0 0 ,the W HO considered changes in climate were responsible for 2 .4 % dia rrhea cases inthe world, 6% of malaria cases in middle income countries and 7% of dengue cases inindustrialized countries.

WHICHPRODUCTIVESECTORSARELIKELYTOBEAFFECTEDFIRST?

Recent studies have helped us to better understand the consequences of climate change fordifferent productive sectors. W e now know that each productive sphere will be a ffected,though in different ways. Thus, the consequences for workers will vary greatly from onesector to another.

4 IPCC (2 00 7 ). Fourth Assessment Report. W orking group II report.

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The last IPCC report states that the costs and benefits of climate change for industry,settlements and society will vary widely by location and scale. In the aggregate, however,

net effects will tend to be more negative the larger the change in climate.5

All economic sectors will be affected by climate change. However, we can identify sectorsthat will be impacted in the very short run (or are already affected by early consequencesof climate change). Studies such as the IPCC affirm that the most vulnerable industries andsettlements will be:

Industries and settlements in coastal and river flood plains. The coa stal populationcould grow from 1.2 billion people (in 1990) to between 1.8 billion and 5.2billion people by the 2080s. Industrializing economies create good part of theirwealth in capitals, most of them based near the coast. The capacity of theseworkplaces to recover from extreme weather events is extremely weak, lacking

even insurances to re-buy equipment or improve damaged infrastructure, as forexample harbors or core telecommunications.

Industries and settlements prone to extreme weather events(espec ia lly those whererapid urbanization is occurring). Impoverished regions in developing countries, forexample, are expected to suffer from the very beginning from climate change.Economic activities in slums, most of it informal, will be hardly hit by extremeweather events.

Economies closely linked with climate-sensitive resources (i.e. ag riculture, fisheries,tourism) are also at risk:Agriculture, for example, w ill suffer from changes in the avai lab ility of fresh waterresources. Run-off is likely to increase in wet tropical areas and decrease furthermore in dry regions, many of which are already suffering from water stress. Cropproductivity at lower latitudes is projected to decrease even with small localtemperature increases (12C) and will also be negatively affected by a greaterfrequency of droughts and floods.

Fisheries and aquaculture are projected to be adversely affected, as regionalchanges in the distribution and production of particular fish species are expecteddue to continued warming.Climate change will impact tourism in many w ays. Tourism not only co ntributes toclimate change, it is affected by it as well. Raising sea levels and temperatures willthreaten coa stal, island destinations and marine sites. N atural disasters w ill harm

infrastructure, natural and cultural heritage in host communities. Diminishing snowconditions will have an impact on mountain and winter sport tourism.

5 IPCC (20 0 7 ). Fourth Assessment Repo rt (AR4 ).

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All economic sectors will be impacted in the medium to long term. Loses in infrastructure willaffect the whole economic activity. Emerging and developing economies, highly dependant

on exportations of raw materia l w ill suffer from scarce g ood crops and the d ifficulty to transportthem through damaged infrastructure. Consequences for support services companies likefinancial services and banks will also be important. This example shows the tight links ofclimate change with the complete national and global economy.

Source: IPCC, 2007

Box 1.5. Effects of Climate Change on the environment, human beings and production

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1 Reduced Water availability

Reduced fisheries resources (aggravated by over fishing)

Reduced areas suitable for agriculture

75 to 250 million people affected by 2020

Reduced yields for rain-fed agriculture

Box 1.6. Consequences of Climate Change in Africa

Source: IPCC, 2007

WHATISGOINGTOHAPPENINMYREGION?

IPCC says

In Africa, climate change is likely to increase water stress for 75 to 250 million people by2020. It will also affect agricultural production, including access to food. The size of areassuitable for agriculture, the length of growing season and yield potential are expected todecrease. In some countries, yields from rain-fed a griculture could be reduced by up to 5 0 %by 2 0 2 0 . Food supply is also go ing to be affected by decreasing fisheries resources inlarge lakes due to rising water temperatures, which may be exacerba ted by continued over-fishing. M angroves and coral-reefs are projec ted to be further deg raded , w ith ad ditiona lconsequences for fisheries and tourism. The cost of adapting to climate change couldamount to a t least 5-10 % of G ross Domestic Product (G DP).

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IPCC says

In Asia,glacier melt in the Himalaya s is projected to increase flood ing a nd rock avalanches,and to affect water resources within two to three decades. Climate change will alsodecrease freshwater availability in large river basins. This, along with population growthand increasing demand from higher standards of living, could a dversely affect more than abillion people by 2050. Coastal areas, especially heavily-populated mega-delta regions,will be at the greatest risks due to increased flooding from the sea and the rivers. It isprojected that crop yields could increase up to 20% in East and Southeast Asia while theycould decrease up to 30% in Central and South Asia by the mid-21 st century. Endemicmorbidity and mortality due to diarrhea are projected to rise. Increases in coastal watertemperature would exacerbate the abundance and/ or toxicity of cholera in South Asia.

Box 1.7. Consequences of Climate Change in Asia

Source: IPCC, 2007

Reduced Water availability

Increased morbidity and mortality from diarrhea & cholera

Reduced yields for agriculture in Central & South Asia

More than a billion people affected by 2050

Increased yields for agricultur e in East & Southeast Asia

Increased flooding

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Box 1.8. Consequences of Climate Change in Latin America

Source: IPCC, 2007

Reduced Water availability

Loss of biodiversity in tropical and semi-arid areas

Reduced yields for agriculture

Increased yields for agriculture in temperate zones

Increased flooding

IPCC says

In Latin America, savanna will gradually replace tropical forest in eastern Amazonia by2 0 5 0 , as a consequence of increases in temperature and decreases in soil w ater. Arid-landvegetation will tend to replace semi-arid vegetation. There is a risk of significant biodiversityloss in many tropica l areas. In drier areas, climate change is expected to lead to salinisationand desertification of agricultural land. Productivity of some important crops is projected todecrease and livestock productivity to decline, with adverse consequences on food security.In temperate zones, soybean yields are projected to increase. Sea level rise is likely toincrease the risk of flooding in low-lying areas. Increases in sea surface temperature arepro jected to adversely affec t M esoamerican coral reefs and cause shifts in the loca tionof south-east Pacific fish stocks. Changes in precipitation patterns and the disappearanceof glaciers are going to affect water availability for human consumption, agriculture andenergy generation.

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UN IT 2 : M ITIG ATIO N

KEYIDEAS

A mitiga tion policy is any po licy that aims to reduce G HG emissions.

Historically, G HG emissions have been linked to eco nomic g rowth, through the risein fossil energy demand.

Technologies and process-related o ptions are available to reduce G HG from all sectors(energy production and use, industry, transport, agriculture, land use and forestry, andwaste management)

MITIGATION = REDUCING GHG EMISSIONS

GHG emissions caused by human activities enhance climate change. If we want to reducefuture impacts of this change it is necessary to stab ilize G HG emissions as soon as possib le.Unfortunately, G HG emissions are grow ing everywhere. This unit first examines the complexityof separating economic growth from GHG emissions and, second, the urgency of puttingin place measures to reduce emissions in order to keep temperature increases within a saferange. Policies that aim to reduce emissions are called mitigation policies .

ECONOMICGROWTHAND GHG EMISSIONS: ANUNSUSTAINABLEDUO

From observations go ing b ack to 1 8 5 0 we can conclude that concentrations of greenhousegases in the atmosphere have grown alongside trends in economic development. This is oneof the observations supporting the claim that many industrialized countries have developedtheir economies in unsustainable ways. Energy production and consumption account for6 5 % of g loba l emissions. In the case of N orth America and Europe, energy production isresponsible for 70% of all CO

2emissions since 1850, while developing countries account

for less than one quarter of cumulative emissions. 6

WHYISECONOMICGROWTHLINKEDTOGREENHOUSEGASEMISSIONS?

As we have seen in the first unit, CO2

emissions (the main gas responsible for human-causedclimate change) orig inate from all kinds of combustion. W e a lso know that the burningof fossil fuels is the main source of energy in our societies (up to 8 5 %). The ava ilabi lity ofenergy to power machines, fuel transport and provide electricity was key in helping ourtraditional economies grow and improve our livelihood.

6 Stern, N . (20 0 6 ). Stern Review on the economics of climate change

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Box 1.9. CO2emissions & Gross Domestic Product per head in selected countries and

regions

Climate change is thus the unintentiona l and d angerous consequence of eco nomic g row th,increasing energy needs, and the combustion of fossil fuels. This link is explored in the

2006 Stern Review on the economics of climate change, which explains how increases inthe Gross Domestic Product tend to increase globa l emissions. Another study on the UnitedStates estimated that, over the long term, a 1% rise in GDP per head leads to a 0.9%increase in emissions per head 7 . The table below outlines the G DP per head for di fferentcountries and groupings associated with CO

2emissions.

7 Huntington, H.G . (2 00 5). US carbon emissions, technologica l progress and economic grow th since 18 70 . InternationalJournal of G loba l Energy Issues. M entioned in Stern (20 0 6 ).

The tables show that CO2

emissions per head are higher in developed countries and muchlower in developing countries although developing countries are in trend of closing thisgap, because of their faster collective growth and their increasing share of more energy-intensive industries, needed to produce an increasing amount of goods, mostly consumedin d eveloped countries.

CO2

emissions & Gross Domestic Product per head in selected countries 2002

Country/ Grouping CO2 per head (tCO2) GDP per head ($ppp2000)

USA 2 0 .4 3 4 ,4 3 0

Japan 9 .8 2 6 ,0 2 1

UK 9 .6 2 7 ,1 7 6

India 1 .1 2 ,5 5 5

CO2emissions & Gross Domestic Product per head in 2002 in selected regional

groupings

Country/ Grouping CO2 per head (tCO2) GDP per head ($ppp2000)

EU 9 .4 2 3 ,5 7 7

O ECD 1 1 .7 2 4 ,3 5 1

Former USSR countries 7 .7 7 ,1 2 3

Developing Countries andEmerging economies

2 .2 3 ,8 7 0

W orld 4 .0 7 ,6 4 9

Source: W RI, 2 00 6Source: W RI, 2 00 6

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Box 1.10. Production factors that favour a rise or decrease in CO2

emissions

W hile the amount of carbon d ioxid e in the atmosphere has risen, some factorshave helpedto slow this growth:

Technological progress;

The change in prices of different types of energy;

The structure of production, which has reduced the carbon intensity of energy(i.e. the amount of CO

2released in the atmosphere for each unit of energy used)

and the energy intensity of outputs (the amount of energy used for each unit ofproduct).

In the recent past, growth in income per head has been accompanied by an increase inglobal emissions of GHG, while reductions in global carbon and energy intensity havetended to reduce them. The extent of these reductions, however, is definitively not sufficient

to stabilize G HG concentrations levels.

Not enough to maintain CO2 at safe levels!

CO2rises

because

CO2declines

thanks

to

Technological progress

Rise in fossil fuels price

Changes in the structure of

production

We burn fossil fuels for:

Powering machines

Fuelling transport

Provide electricity

Not enough to maintain CO2 at safe levels!

CO2rises

because

CO2declines

thanks

to

Technological progress

Rise in fossil fuels price

Changes in the structure of

production


Powering machines

Fuelling transport

Provide electricity


Powering machines

Fuelling transport

Provide electricity

Source: Sustainlabour, 2 0 0 8

In order to guarantee decent living conditions for everyone as well as the survival of humanbeings on this planet, we need to separate (decouple) economic growth from GHGemissions and work towa rds reducing our emissions. W hat are the options for mitigationpolicies?

MITIGATIONPOLICIES: THEARTOFDECOUPLINGECONOMICGROWTHANDEMISSIONS

G reenhouse gas emissions come from different sources. Thus, to reduce their quantities, eachof these sources must somehow be modified. W hat is the distribution of GHG emissions bytype of source?

The pie-chart show s that energy-related sources are the main contributors of GHG emissionsw ith 6 5 % of all G HG , w hile non-energy ones contribute 3 5 %. W hile energy-related sourcesemit mainly CO

2, non-energy emissions are more methane intensive.

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WHATDOESMITIGATIONMEANINEACHSECTOR? WHATKINDOFPOLICIESCANHELPREDUCEEMISSIONS?

Energy supply

M easures taken in the energy supply sector affect industries such as pow er and heatproduction and distribution directly. Changes in energy supply also affect other sectors(i.e. energy-intensive industries). Thus, some companies will confront more or less difficult

challenges depending on their primary source of energy. This highlights the need forassessing clearly the potential social impacts of these measures, i.e. on employment, localdevelopment, etc.

Box 1.11. GHG emissions in 2000, by source

Total emissions in 20 0 0: 42 G tCO2e

Energy emissions are mostly CO(some non-CO

2industry a nd other energy related),

N on-energy emissions are CO2

(land use) and non-CO2

(agriculture and waste).

Source: W RI, 20 0 6

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Box 1.12. Examples of policy measures given general policy objectives and options toreduce GHG emissions from the energy-supply sector

Source: IPCC (2 0 0 7 ). Fourth Assessment Report. W orking g roup III report. M itigation o f climate change.

Policy options Economicinstruments

Regulatoryinstruments

Policy processes

Policyobjectives

Voluntaryagreements

Disseminationof informationand strategicplanning

TechnologicalRD&D anddeployment

Energyefficiency

Higher energytaxes

Low er energysubsidies

Power plantGHG taxes

Fiscal incentives

Tradableemissionspermits

Power plantminimumefficientstandards

Best availabletechnologiesprescriptions

Voluntarycommitments toimprove powerplant efficiency

Informationand educationcampaigns.

Cleaner powergenerationfrom fossil fuels

Energy sourceswitching

GH G taxes Tradable

emissionspermits

Fiscal incentives

Power plantfuel portfoliostandards

Voluntarycommitmentsto fuel portfoliochanges

Informationand educationcampaigns.

Increasedpowergenerationfromrenewable,nuclear, andhydrogen asan energycarrier

RenewableEnergy

Capital grants Feed-in tariffs Q uota

obligation andpermit trading GH G taxes Tradable

emissionspermits

Targets Supportive

transmission

tariffs andtransmissionaccess

Voluntaryagreementsto install

renewableenergycapacity

Informationand educationcampaigns

Greenelectricityvalidation

Increasedpowergeneration

fromrenewableenergysources

Carboncapture andstorage

GH G taxes Tradable

emissionspermits

Emissionsrestrictions formajor pointsource emitters

Voluntaryagreements todevelop anddeploy CCS

Informationcampaigns

Chemicalandbiologicalsequestration

Sequestrationinundergroundgeologicalformations

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What can be done to reduce these emissions?

Improve energy supply and distribution efficiency (i.e. minimizing losses in

transmission);

Switching fuels taking into consideration emissions and costs (coal combustionemits 9 7 4 kg of C O

2/ M W h, gas emits almost half as much as coal - 4 6 9 kg of

CO2/ M W h);

Expand renewable heat and power capacities, such as hydropower, solar, wind,geothermal and bioenergy.

The IPCC experts consider that other technologies, not yet in the market, could also enhancemitigation in the energy supply sector:

carbon capture and storage from biomass and coal-fired electricity generatingfacilities;

advanced nuclear pow er;

advanced renewable energy, including tidal and waves energy, concentratingsolar and solar PV.8

G overnments have chosen different means for achieving these reductions. Some useregulatory policies (for example, they may choose to buy renewable energy at a higherprice than fossil energy), while others mix regulation with the market (for example, they candefine emissions reduction targets for a group of companies and set a virtual market wherecompanies can sell their excess emissions credits to companies that are not achieving theiremissions reduction commitments).

There is also another set of policies aimed at reducing the energy intensity of the economy.They encourage companies and families to use energy more efficiently and invest in energyefficiency products that lower energy bills, reduce the need for new electrical generationcapacity and consequently reduce greenhouse gases.

Energy efficiency programmes include:

Public information campaig ns;

Energy audits of industrial and commercial facilities;

Rebates for energy-saving technologies, among others.

Transport

Transport accounts for 14% of global emissions. Policies to reduce the impact of transportactivity are slowly being adopted, and sometimes have more to do with local air pollutionconcerns than w ith climate change.

8 IPCC (2 00 7 ). Fourth Assessment Report. W orking group III report.

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Encourage shifts from road to rail transport and from private to public transport

systems;

Promote more fuel efficient vehicles, hybrid vehicles (which use electricity ratherthan fuel) and cleaner diesel vehicles;

Further develop agrofuels, above all second generation ones;

Encourage non-motorized transport, such as cycling and walking;

Adapt land-use and transport planning to carbon constraints.

W e think it is necessary to explain w hat ag rofuels are, as they are prop osed as a newinstrument for reducing CO

2from transport. Agrofuels are liquid or gas transportation fuels

derived from bio logical ressources (plants, crops, etc.). The two main a grofuels, bioethanol

and biodiesel, are made from crops such as cereals, soybean, rape seed oil, sugar caneand palm oil. They could be used in cars without undertaking engine transformations, upto certain shares. Combustion of agrofuels is considered carbon neutral as it releases thesame amount of CO

2that the plant helps reduce during its growth. This is the main reason

for which they have been promoted. However, it is necessary to take into account the so-called life cycle of the agrofuel, which includes the total amount of energy that has beenused for its production (including indirect fossil energy inputs in the form of pesticides andfertilizers used to grow the plants). In several cases, the amount of energy required (and thusthe amount of CO

2released in the atmosphere) has proven to be higher than the amount of

CO2

that can be saved from using agrofuels. Thus, their production can be another sourceof greenhouse gases rather than a solution for reducing them.

It is important also to differentiate first generation agrofuels from second generationones. First generations are mainly the ones listed above. Second generation agrofuelsare still under development, and are made from materials that do not compete with foodproduction, such as leaves, tree ba rk, straw or w ood chips. In the longer term, many envisag esecond-generation biofuels being made from materials that are not dependent on arableland, such as algal materials growing in water. Second generation agrofuels could have amore favourable CO

2balance.

Buildings

8% of GHG emissions come from buildings. Adapting old buildings and constructing newclimate-friendly ones is at the core of policies trying to reduce this kind of emissions.

Some examples of policies in this sector are:

Efficient lighting and daylighting;

M ore efficient electrical appliances and heating and co oling devices;

Improved cook stoves;

Improved insulation;

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Passive and active solar design for heating and cooling;

Alternative refrigeration fluids, recovery and recycle of fluorinated gases.

Bills and performance rules are typically the most frequent regulations chosen by G overnmentsto achieve changes in this sector.

Industry

Industry accounts for 1 4 % of G HG emissions. As their emissions can easily be mea suredin each installation (unlike with transport or agriculture), a lot of effort has been directed atthis sector.


M ore efficient end-use electrical equipment;

Heat and power recovery;

M aterial recycling and substitution;

Control of non-CO2

emissions;

A wide array of process-specific technologies.

G overnments have started to implement these measures. In some d eveloped countries thesehave been accompanied by tighter regulations. Industries however do not appear to beadapting their technology quickly enough, mainly because of the high investment costs this

requires. This anticipates a problem for emerging economies, many of which are workingwith old and carbon intensive technologies and have reduced possibilities of capitalinvestment because of economical constraints.

Agriculture

Ag riculture is an important contributor to G HG emissions, but di ffers in the type of gasesit releases into the atmosphere. M ethane (CH

4) is the main gas emitted by this sector, and

measures to reduce i ts emissions are currently not being promoted enough. Another differenceis the regional distribution of these emissions. W hile emissions coming from industry, energyproduction or transport are still primarily emitted by the developed countries, emissions from

ag riculture (and those of forestry, a s we w ill see below) are mainly originated in developingcountries.

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Improve crop and grazing land management to increase soil carbon storage;

Restore cultivated peaty soils and degraded lands;

Reduce use of fossil-based fertilizers and pesticides;

Improve rice cultivation techniques, and livestock and manure management;

Improve energy efficiency;

Improve crops yields.

Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF)

1 8 % of emissions come from Land Use. The overarching category of Land Use, Land UseChange and Forestry (LULUCF) includes deforestation processes, as well as desertification.Indeed, one of the consequences of deforestation is that the carbon originally held in theforests is released to the atmosphere, either immediately when the trees are burned, or moreslow ly as unburned orga nic matter decays.

M ost of the carbon is released into the atmosphere as carbon dio xide (CO2), but small

amounts of methane (CH4) and ca rbon monoxide (CO ) may also be released w ith

decomposition or burning. Reforestation reverses these fluxes of ca rbon. W hile forests areregrowing, they withdraw carbon from the atmosphere and accumulate it again in treesand soil. Although deforestation, itself, may not release significant quantities of methane ornitrous oxide (N

2O ), these gases are o ften released as a consequence of using the cleared

land for cattle or other ruminant livestock, paddy rice, or other crops, especially thosefertilized with nitrogen.

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Afforest (create a forest) and reforest (pla nt forests where they have been converted

to other use);

Improve forest management;

Reduce d eforestation;

Improve harvested wood product management;

Use forestry products for bioenergy to replace fossil fuel use.

Waste

3% of emissions (mostly carbon dioxide and methane) are generated from waste. The way

in which these wastes are disposed of and treated has a direct influence on the emissionsof these greenhouse gases. For example, waste incineration generates CO

2and nitrous

oxide, while land filling waste generates methane. Integrated waste management policiesshould be enhanced, and a life cycle perspective should be adopted in order to ensurethat no environmental burdens are shifted to other life cycle phases, as well as to avoidthe shifting of burdens among different environmental impacts (for example, carcinogenicsubstances produced during incineration, soil pollution, pest and diseases coming from landfilling, etc.).


Ecodesign of products and packaging;

Reduce, reuse, recycle and recover waste (the four Rs);

Compost organic waste;

Control waste water treatment;

Recover methane from landfills to produce energy;

Recover energy from waste incineration.

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ADAPTATION = COPINGWITHCLIMATECHANGE

Adaptation to climate change is the adjustment of natural or human systems in response toactual or expected changes in the climate, with the aim of allowing them to benefit frompotential opportunities while minimizing threats.

The objective of adaptation policies is to reduce vulnerability to climate change. However,

adaptation alone will not work; it has to go together with strong mitigation policies. Thesemake adap tation possible a nd a ffordab le, since the cost of ada ptation rises as the magnitudeand speed of climate change increase. In the case of natural environments the speed withwhich species and ecosystems can migrate or adjust is limited. For human beings, thecapacity to adapt is limited by the survival of the living environment (i.e. if sea level rises,some countries will become uninhabitable).

O n the one hand, adaptation strategies consist of building the capacity of peop le to ad ap t(understanding impacts, raising awareness to enable proper decision making, promotingsound long-term investments). O n the other hand, ad ap tation means taking a ctions to reducevulnerability (investing in infrastructure against climate risks, changing crops, etc.). From atrade unions perspective, this means first, understanding the impacts of climate change in

a specific sector, in the workplace and for workers families, then, exploring measures thatcould reduce these impacts.

Adaptation will, in most cases, provide local benefits. For this reason, it could be expectedthat individuals, households and businesses would spontaneously take actions in responseto actual or expected benefits and threats, even without the active intervention of policy. Forexample, a compa ny may set a heat wave p lan for its workers and install cooling systems,anticipating hotter summers, or a family may undertake changes in their rooftop to render itcyclone-proof.

UN IT 3 : ADAPTATIO N

KEYIDEAS

Adaptation is the complementary way of responding to the challenge posed by climatechange.

It implies important investments in the most vulnerable sectors (water, health, agriculture,etc.) to avoid or reduce the impacts of climate change.

W ithout pub lic polic ies, the most vulnerab le groups (ie. the poorest citizens) and at theinternational level, the poorest and most vulnerable countries will suffer most from theirinab ility to ad ap t as their capa city to invest in climate-proo f technologies is limited.

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The capacity to ad ap t however is related to income and capabilities. W hile everybodywill experience the same negative climate impacts, the most vulnerable will experience

them the most. Poor people often lack the resources and information which might allowthem to anticipate the effects of climate change. Therefore, in order to guarantee fairnessand equity, governments need to undertake adaptation strategies that focus on empoweringthese populations, i.e. providing tools (financial resources, information, etc.) that enablethem to adapt to climate change. Some governments in most vulnerable countries beganw ith ada ptation p lanning, but are facing lack of resources to tackle huge challenges posedby climate change dynamics.

The various adaptation strategies also differ greatly from one another. Some will concentrateon the short term, for example, b y increasing resilience to extreme weather events. O theradaptation policies will focus on the medium and long-term evolution of our climate, andseek to adapt the overall socio-economic model on which each society is based (including

shifts in economic sectors, massive investments in infrastructure and education, etc.).

MEANSOFADAPTINGTOCLIMATECHANGE

Vulnerability and capacity to adapt differ among countries or regions

N ations differ both in their contribution to c limate change a nd in their vulnerab ility to i tsimpacts. Ironically, many of the countries least responsible for the growing accumulation ofgreenhouse gases in the Earths atmosphere, particularly in the developing world, are likelyto be among the most heavily impacted by climate change.

There are physical and socio-economical reasons why developing countries and the poorestpeople are the most vulnerable.

First, the majority of developing countries are in tropical and sub-tropical regions, areaspredicted to be seriously affected by the impacts of climate change: Africa, Asia, LatinAmerica and the Small Island States have all been identified as regions of concern.

Secondly, developing countries are often less able to cope with adverse climate impactsbecause:

@

Governments have a very important role to play in making adaptationhapp en, starting from now by provid ing public responses and investments,

as well as policy guidelines, and economic and institutional support to theprivate sector and civil society.Some aspects of adaptation, such as major infrastructure decisions, willrequire greater foresight and p lanning a t the loca l level. O thers, such asknowledge sharing and technology development, will be of global benefit.

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Poverty exacerbates, and is exacerbated by the impacts of environmentalchange: between 1990 and 1998, 97% of all natural disaster-related deaths

(90% of them weather-related) occurred in developing countries. Livelihoods are highly dependent on climate-sensitive resources: agriculture in

Sub-Saharan Africa, of which up to 90% is rain-fed, accounts for 70% of regionalemployment and 35% of gross national product.

The poorest inhabitants of developing countries already struggle to cope withcurrent extreme weather events and climate variability. The greater frequencyand severity of climate shocks is repeatedly eroding their coping capacity.

Box 1.13. Climate Change impacts in developing countries

Environmental Impacts Socio-economic resources and sectors affected

Changes in rainfall patterns Increased frequency and severity of floods,

droughts, storms & heat waves Changes in growing seasons and regions Changes in water quality and quantity Sea level rise Glacial melt

W ater resources Agriculture and forestry Food Security Human Health Infrastructure (e.g. transport) Settlements: displacement of inhabitants and

loss of livelihood Coastal management Industry and energy Disaster response and recovery

Source: IPPC (20 0 7 ). Fourth Assessment Repo rt. W orking g roup II report.

Climate Change will thus exacerbate vulnerability of those who are already socially andeconomically vulnerable. It is necessary therefore to mainstream equity and solidarity issues,as well as development needs on adaptation strategies.

A variety of options are available for adaptation in different sectors

There is a wide array of adaptation options available for the most vulnerable sectors.However, adaptation is not occurring at the level required to reduce vulnerability to futureclimate change.

These potential options could be purely technological (i.e. sea defenses), behavioural(changes in food and recreational choices), managerial (changes in farm practices), andinstitutional (urban planning regulations).

W hat can be do ne to help the most vulnerab le sectors ad ap t to climate change?

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Water

Freshwater availability will be seriously compromised in mid-latitudes and semi-arid latitudes,

and hundred of millions people will be exposed to increased water stress (IPCC, 2007).These elements highlight the need to act in the essential sector of water management.

High investment costs as well as the need to ensure water access to all, regardless of theirfinancial resources, makes the water sector in developing countries particularly inadequatefor privately-managed adaptation. The costs for adapting water systems to climate changeneed to be covered through public funding, which in many countries, are rather limited.This creates one of the main barriers to adaptation for developing countries: hardly anyprivate or public funding has gone towards the sectors which will suffer most from climatechange.

How can water management adapt? Improve water resources management,

including flood risk and droughtcontrol.

Integrate climate change considerationsinto spatial and water resourcesplanning.

Improve understanding on impactsand raise awareness, including byengaging with water utilities and water

users. Integrate water resources management

with other national policies and sectors, especially land-use, urban planning,energy and tourism.

Enhance flood pla in a reas of rivers and designate certain rural areas especially forstorage of freshwater surpluses, or establish underground rainwater harvesting.

Agriculture

Adaptation needs and measures for agriculture in developed and developing countries

differ clearly. W hile in developed countries ag riculture accounts for around 8 % of overallemployment, in regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa, it accounts for 70% of regionalemployment and 35% of gross national product. It is thus logic to see a more importantfocus on adapting agriculture in developing economies, rather than in developed ones.

WATER

Improve water resource management

Integrate climate change considerations intospatial and water resources planning

Engage with public utilities and water users

Understand the impacts and raise awarenessamong the public

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How can agriculture adapt?

Improve research and knowledge on

the impacts (i.e. in food security) andcosts of adaptation options, givingspecial attention to indigenous andlocal crops, seeds and technologiesrather than to new crop varieties andtechnologies.

Raise awareness and improve capaci tybuilding in the sector, including trainingfarmers.

Develop more efficient irrigation tech-

niques, new cultivars, change crop-ping patterns.

G iven the specia l relation of agriculture to floodand drought risk management, b iod iversity and market changes, a cross-sectoral ap proachis particularly important for agriculture.

But as with the water sector, there are many barriers preventing the adaptation of this sector.These barriers include lack of coordination among the large number of institutions that dealwith agriculture, and lack of long-term planning. In developing countries, poverty and theassociated lack of adequate credit facilities is the critical barrier: the benefits of certainactions (improved irrigation or mulching for example) may be clear to farmers, but lack of

financial resources for investment hampers their implementation.

Finally, food security is a challenge that should be taken into a ccount in adap tation p oliciesfor agriculture. This issue has been discussed recently during the High Level Conference ofthe ILO on Food Security and C limate Change (Rome, June 2 0 0 8 ).

Health

Climate change w ill have effects on human healthand health services. The burden of malnutrition,diarrhoeal, cardio-respiratory, and infectiousdiseases is likely to increase. Hea t waves, floodsand droughts, and changes in the distribution ofvector-borne diseases may cause many deaths.

In order to reduce vulnerabi lity to the health effectsof climate change it is indispensable to reinforcehealth services globally through increasedinvestment in health infrastructure, improvedresearch, enhancement of delivery capacities,awareness raising on prevention strategies,development of early warning systems, etc.

HEALTH

Increase investment in infrastructure

Improve research

Enhance delivery capacities

Raise awareness on prevention strategies

Develop early warning systems

AGRICULTURE

Improve research and knowledge on impactsand costs of adaptation

Give special attention to indigenous and localcrops, seeds and technologies

Raise awareness, build capacity, and trainfarmers and agricultural workers

Develop more efficient irrigation techniques,new cultivars, and change cropping patterns

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Capacity constraints in public health services constitute a significant barrier in developingcountries. These include, for example, inadequate provisions of drinking water in saline

affected regions, lack of funding and consistent underinvestment in the sector due toexhausted public funds and low direct returns for private investors.

Coastal zones

Coastal zones risk increased d amag e from floodsand storms and experts affirm that if the globalaverage temperature goes up by 3C, about30% of global coastal wetlands will be lost andmillions of people could experience coastalflooding each year.9

Adaptation measures in coastal zones ofteninvolve investments in infrastructure (reinforcementof beach dune belts, construction of landdrainage systems), but also changes in currentpractices (such as regular dumping of dredgedsediments from harbour aquatories) and changesin regulations (for example, managing land usein areas prone to coastal flooding risk or settingback lines to restrict coastal development).

Examples of obstacles preventing the advance of adaptation measures in coastal zones are

the large investments required, increased competition for public funds, and the continuouspressure to promote real estate and economic development in coastal areas.

Some areas are particularly vulnerable and the option for relocation should be seriouslyconsidered, as livelihood and/ or physica l environment of communities living in these areaswould be severely damaged, or could even disappear. In these cases, the competentauthorities should establish the adequate mechanisms in order to guarantee participation ofaffected people in decision making processes.

COASTAL ZONES

Increase investments in infrastructure

Change aquaculture practices

Improve regulations for restricting coastaldevelopment

Engage with inhabitants for analyzingpossibilities for relocation

9 IPCC (2 00 7 ). Fourth Assessment Report. W orking group III report.

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Ecosystems and forests

A 2C rise in temperature will entail an increased risk of extinction for 30% of species andthe bleaching of practically all coral.

The adaptation of natural ecosystems is very closely related to other strategies such asmangrove conservation and forest management.

How can natural ecosystems adapt?

Efforts should be focused on researchand impact assessment, strengtheningmonitoring capabilities and community-based conservation p rogrammes.

Draw up adaptation plans and p racticesspecifically focused on desertification,alpine environments, and protectedareas need to be improved.

Promote awareness in society andinvolve people in the assessments ofthe vulnerability of ecosystems anddep endent industries or communities, andin the formulation and implementationof specific adaptation strategies.

ECOSYSTEMS & FORESTS

Improve research and impact assessments

Strengthen monitoring capabilities

Improve adaptation plans in the light ofdesertification problems

Promote community-based conservationprogrammes

Promote awareness and participation of localstakeholders, including workers

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There are two response options to climate change:

1 . The first one is to take action. This means to invest in climate-friendly technolog ies,to change behaviours in order to reduce our climate footprint, and to prepare oursocieties for the unavoidable impacts of climate change.

2 . The second op tion is not to take action and remain in the so-ca lled business asusual scenario . This means to maintain (or increase further) our current volumesof energy consumption and production, as well as the types of sources for thisenergy, and let individuals adapt to abrupt weather and environmental changesby themselves.

Both response options have a cost financial, social and human. This unit will address the

cost of action and inaction and will show that costs of inaction will be far more importantthan those of early coordinated and responsible action.

In our daily lives, the Economy is frequently referred to as the basis for making politicaldecisions which affect our jobs and livelihoods. Usually it is used in the monetary sense,leaving aside its social implications. As political decisions are often based on economicrationale, researchers have begun to analyze the consequences of climate change witheconomic tools. This had the merit of raising the importance of climate change in thepolitical agenda. However, there is an urgent need to improve this economic information,widening its scope with social data. In this chapter we will sum up available information oneconomic costs of climate change and its consequences.

TAKINGACTIONHASACOST

W e are still unsure of the real costs of responsib le po licies aimed a t reducing the effects ofclimate change. N evertheless, studies are now beg inning to assess some of the financia lrequirements needed to keep G HG emissions concentrations at safe levels.

UN IT 4 : ECO N O M ICS O F CLIM ATE CHAN G E

KEYIDEAS

The fight aga inst climate change has a co st, at least 1% G DP by 2 0 3 0 1 0.

If we do not act, then the impacts on our lives will be much greater and, in consequence,the costs w ill be much higher (5 -1 0 % loss in G DP).d.

1 0 Stern, N . (20 06 ). Stern Review on the economics of climate change.

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Box 1.14. How much will actions aimed at combating climate change cost?

Additional investment and financial flows in 2030

A recent study1 1 determined that the additional estimated investment and financial flowsneeded in 2030 is large in absolute terms, but small in relation to estimated GDP

(0.3 to 0.5%) and global investment (1.1 to 1.7%) in 2030. Mitigation measures needed to return globa l G HG emissions to current

levels by 2030 require additional investment and financial flows betweenUSD 200-210 billion in 2030.

Add itional investment and financial flow s for adap tation needed by 2 0 3 0 amountto several tens of billions of USD.

1 1 UN FCCC. Smith, Joel (20 0 7 ). Preliminary Estimates of add itional investment and financial flow s needed for adap tation in2 03 0 . Estimates from this report should b e treated as indica tive, due to a number of gaps in the information (i.e. Limitedavailability of data for regional disaggregation, the need for increased electricity access in developing countries is nottaken into account, among others).

Mitigation

SectorsGlobal

(billion USD)

Agriculture 3 5

Building 5 1

Energy RD&D 3 5 -4 5

Energy SupplyInfrastructure

(-) 67

Forestry 2 1

Industry 3 6

Transport 8 8

W aste 0 .9

Global: 200210 billion USD (0.92% ofprojected global investment and 0.26%of globalGDP in 20 30 )

Developing countries: 76 -77 billion USD (0.8 6 %of projected global investment and 0.29% ofGDP in 20 30 )

Adaptation in some selected sectors

SectorGlobal (billionUSD)

Share ofdevelopingcountries

Agriculture,forestry a ndfisheries

1 4 5 0 %

Coastal one 1 1 4 0 %

Human health 5 1 0 0 %

Infrastructure 8 -1 3 0 2 5 %

W ater supply 1 1 8 0 %

Global: O verall needs identified in this studycorrespond to 0.20.8% of global investmentflows or 0.0 6 -0.2 1 % of projected G DP in 20 3 0.

Developing countries: 28 to 67 billion USD in2 0 3 0 .

C Amounts are large in absolute terms,but small relative to GDP and investment

Source: UN FCCC . Smith, Joel (20 0 7 ). Preliminary Estimates of add itional investment and financialflows needed for adaptation in 2030.

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Even if these figures focus only on investment needs and do not include the costs that willbe covered by individuals (such as the renewal of electric appliances, or the insulation of

houses), they help us identify the cost of sectoral investments which are necessary to bothmitigate and adapt to climate change. However, we should take them as indicative.

First let us examine the mitigation side, which is made up of all the policies aimed atreducing GHG emissions.

In the energy sector (35-45 billion USD), the study anticipates that 35% of annualinvestments will be needed to shift to climate-friendly technologies, and that 55%of this investment needs to be made in developing countries. It suggests that theinvestment will be undertaken by public utilities or regulated private utilities, aswell as domestically funded. The study also confirms the need for a 10% reductionin annual investment in fossil fuel supply.

In the industry sector, an additional investment of USD 36 billion will be neededto improve energy efficiency, reduce process emissions and implement carboncapture and storage. It considers that with appropriate regulations and policies,these investments will be made by companies.

In the building sector, USD 5 1 billion w ill be necessary to improve energy efficiency(electricity and fossi

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