cba results files getting started. 2 we highly encourage you to >read the cba methodology: annex...
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CBA Results FilesGetting started
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We highly encourage you to
> Read the CBA Methodology: Annex F on Methodology of TYNDP 2015
http://www.entsog.eu/public/uploads/files/publications/TYNDP/2015/TYNDP022-150316_Annex_F_lowres.pdf
And ESW-CBA Methodology
http://www.entsog.eu/public/uploads/files/publications/CBA/2015/INV0175-150213_Adapted_ESW-CBA_Methodology.pdf
> Read the TYNDP 2015
http://www.entsog.eu/publications/tyndp#ENTSOG-TEN-YEAR-NETWORK-DEVELOPMENT-PLAN-2015
Getting started
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12 Result files for each Group of projects > DISRUPTED RATE> DISRUPTED QUANTITY> REMAINING FLEXIBILITY> INDICATORS> MONETIZATION> MARGINAL PRICE> GPI> FLOWS> CO2 and demand
> IMPORT ROUTE DIV> N-1 ESW CBA
> Economic Template
Getting started
Modelling results
Capacity-based indicators results
Economic Template
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Units of the files
Getting started
Units
DISRUPTED RATE % of country (or balancing zone* ) demand daily basis
DISRUPTED QUANTITY GWh/d daily basis
REMAINING FLEXIBILITY % of country (or balancing zone* ) demand daily basis
INDICATORS SSPDi = % of supply price diversification on country Gas Bill yearly basis
SSPDe= % of supply price dependence of country Gas Bill yearly basis
USSD/CSSD= % of country demand on yearly basis yearly basis
MONETIZATION EUR/d daily basis
MARGINAL PRICE EUR/GWh
GPI EUR/GWh
FLOWS GWh/d daily basis
CO2 and demand CO2= in tons daily basis
demand= in GWh daily basis
IMPORT ROUTE DIV no unit (HHI index)
N-1 % of country demand daily basis
Economic template Bill components= 10^6 EUR/year yearly basis
*: for country having more than 1 balancing zone
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Overview of Modelling resultsRef case LNG RU NO DZ LY AZ
ch exp ch exp ch exp ch exp ch exp ch exp
DISRUPTED RATEDISRUPTED QUANTITYREMAINING FLEXIBILITY
Normal situation(NONE)
RU transit disruption
NO transit disruption
DZ transit disruption
LY transit disruption
AZ transit disruption
Ukraine
Langeled
Transmed
Green
Stream
TANAP
Belarus
Franpipe
MEG
MONETIZATIONMARGINAL PRICEGPI
INDICATORS: USSD/CSSD(supply dependence)
_LNG _RU _NO _DZ _LY _AZ
INDICATORS: SSPDe_(price dependence) _LNG _RU _NO _DZ _LY _AZ
INDICATORS: SSPDi_(price diversification) _LNG _RU _NO _DZ _LY _AZ
Reviewed!
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Common File structure for these Files and Worksheets
Files structure
PROJECT IMPACT in FID FID- FID+Select country Country Code 2 015 2 020 2 025 2 030 2 035 2 015 2 020 2 025 2 030 2 035 2 015 2 020 2 025 2 030 2 035YES Country 1 C1 0 0 0 0 0YES Country 2 C2 0 0 0 0 0YES Country 3 C3 0 0 0 0 0YES Country 4 C4 0 0 0 0 0YES Country 5 C5 0 0 0 0 0YES Country 6 C6 0 0 0 0 0YES Country 7 C7 0 0 0 0 0YES Country 8 C8 0 0 0 0 0YES Country 9 C9 0 0 0 0 0YES Country 10 C10 0 0 0 0 0YES Country 11 C11 0 0 0 0 0YES Country 12 C12 0 0 0 0 0YES Country 13 C13 0 0 0 0 0YES Country 14 C14 0 0 0 0 0YES Country 15 C15 0 0 0 0 0YES Country 16 C16 0 0 0 0 0YES Country 17 C17 0 0 0 0 0YES Country 18 C18 0 0 0 0 0YES Country 19 C19 0 0 0 0 0YES Country 20 C20 0 0 0 0 0YES Country 21 C21 0 0 0 0 0YES Country 22 C22 0 0 0 0 0YES Country 23 C23 0 0 0 0 0YES Country 24 C24 0 0 0 0 0YES Country 25 C25 0 0 0 0 0YES Country 26 C26 0 0 0 0 0YES Country 27 C27 0 0 0 0 0YES Country 28 C28 0 0 0 0 0YES Country 29 C29 0 0 0 0 0YES Country 30 C30 0 0 0 0 0YES Country 31 C31 0 0 0 0 0YES Country 32 C32 0 0 0 0 0
Results in Initial Situation (=without Group) along the years
Results in Final Situation (=withGroup)along the years
Impact of the Group (=difference between Final and Initial Situations) along the years
Results along the countries
File WorksheetDISRUPTED RATE START-END ValuesDISRUPTED QUANTITY START-END ValuesREMAINING FLEXIBILITY START-END ValuesINDICATORS START-END All ClustersMARGINAL PRICE START-END ValuesGPI START-END Values
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Drop down list to select the results you want to look at
> DISRUPTED RATE> DISRUPTED QUANTITY> REMAINING FLEXIBILITY
> INDICATORS
> MONETIZATION
> MARGINAL PRICE> GPI
Files structure (modelling results files)
Global GREENDisruption NONECluster FIDTemporal Period DC
Global contextDisruption scenInfra. scenTemporal period
Global GREENCluster FIDIndicator SSPDi - LNG Indicators
Global GREYDisruption NONEGas Price Scenario RUm expensive Price Conf.
Global GREYTemporal Period AWCluster FIDGas Price Scenario NO cheap
Temporal period
Price Conf.
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Disruption and Remaining Flexibility> No supply price configurations for these indicators> Calculated at country (or BZ) level> To be looked at under high demand situations: DC (=Design Case) and 2W (=2 weeks
cold spell)
> Disruption Rate: measures the share of country’s demand which cannot be supplied A 0% disruption rate means the country is not facing disruption A 10% disruption on peak day means that the country’s infrastructures only allow to supply 90%
of its peak demand
> Remaining Flexibility: measures the additional demand the country could cope with, expressed as share of the country’s actual demand A 20% remaining flexibility means the country could cope with a 20% increase of its demand
> Above indicators are also calculated under 8 route disruption scenarios (Ukraine, Belarus, …)
Modelling results - 1cf. Annex F on Methodology p22
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Monetized results> Monetized results are calculated under the 13 price configurations
> EU Bill
> Marginal Price: by country (even by balancing zone) To be looked at for AW (=Average winter) and AS (=Average summer)
> GPI (Gas Price Index): proxy for the country gas Bills, calculated by country To be looked at for AW (=Average winter) and AS (=Average summer)
Modelling results - 2cf. Annex F on Methodology p15 to 18
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Indicators> Indicators are calculated for each of the 6 supply sources. > They are calculated at country level on a yearly basis
> Supply source dependence measures the share of country’s demand that cannot be supplied if EU faces a total absence of this source. It is calculated both under uncooperative (USSD) and cooperative (CSSD) behaviour between countries A country’s uncooperative dependence of 40% to LNG means that this country needs at least
40% of LNG to supply its demand, if not supported by other countries
> Supply price dependence (SSPDe) measures the dependence of country gas bill on that source A country’s price dependence of 40% to Norwegian gas means that an increase of 10% of
Norwegian price would induce a 4% increase of the country’s gas bill
> Supply price diversification (SSPDi) measures the ability of each country to take advantage on a cheap source in its gas bill A country’s price diversification of 30% to Algerian gas means that a decrease of 10% of Algerian
price would be reflected in a 3% decrease of the country’s gas bill
Modelling results - 3cf. Annex F on Methodology p23 to 26
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> N-1 for ESW-CBA: calculation based on capacities and peak demand (non modelled)
Capacity-based results – N-1New!
cf. Annex F on Methodology p21
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> N-1_ESW-CBA Result file: impact of Group of projects provided
By country
In 2 worksheetso N-1_green for GREEN global context (using countries’ GREEN peak demand)o N-1_grey for GREY global context (using countries’ GREY peak demand)
In these worksheets for the 2 Infrastructure scenarioso Low Infrastructure scenario: lines 4 to 33o High Infrastructure scenario: lines 36 to 65
Detail by country to be found in the Countries Worksheets
Capacity-based results – N-1New!
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> Import Route Diversification (IRD): HHI index which measures the diversification of paths that gas can flow through to reach a zone. Together with the Supply Source Price Diversification, it provides a proxy to the assessment of counterparty diversification.
Capacity-based results - IRDNew!
cf. Annex F on Methodology p21
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> IMPORT ROUTE DIV Result File: impact of Group of projects provided in columns BG to BQ, under Infra Scenarios HUGH (BH to BL) and LOW (BM to BQ) by country (green lines)
Capacity-based results - IRDNew!
Interpretation of figures(50)= -50 = decrease 40 = +40 = increase - = no impact
Thank You for Your Attention
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