cause and effect of - nictaoswa.nict.go.jp/workshop_3/program/pdf/e1/06.pdf · geomagnetic storms...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Cause and Effect of - NICTaoswa.nict.go.jp/workshop_3/program/pdf/E1/06.pdf · Geomagnetic Storms during Sep. 12-13, 2014 2 strong flares • 09/08 23:12 M4.6 (N14E31) • 09/10 17:21](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071019/5fd31244389ad720f7032302/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
AOSWA Workshop
Cause and Effect of Sep. 12-13, 2014 geomagnetic storm
K.-S. Cho1, R.-S. Kim1, S.-J. Kim1, J.-A. Hwang1, Y.-S. Kwak1, S.-H. Park2, P. Kumar1 and S.-J. Jang1,3
1Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute 2National Observatory of Athens, Greece
3Kyunghee University, Korea 1
![Page 2: Cause and Effect of - NICTaoswa.nict.go.jp/workshop_3/program/pdf/E1/06.pdf · Geomagnetic Storms during Sep. 12-13, 2014 2 strong flares • 09/08 23:12 M4.6 (N14E31) • 09/10 17:21](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071019/5fd31244389ad720f7032302/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
2
Geomagnetic Storms during Sep. 12-13, 2014
2 strong flares • 09/08 23:12 M4.6 (N14E31) • 09/10 17:21 X1.6 (N11E05)
Proton event • 09/11 02:40 126 pfu
(N16W06,
Two Geomagnetic Storms • 09/11 23h UT : Kp=5, Dst = -20 nT • 09/12 21h UT : Kp=7, Dst=-75 nT
![Page 3: Cause and Effect of - NICTaoswa.nict.go.jp/workshop_3/program/pdf/E1/06.pdf · Geomagnetic Storms during Sep. 12-13, 2014 2 strong flares • 09/08 23:12 M4.6 (N14E31) • 09/10 17:21](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071019/5fd31244389ad720f7032302/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
1. KASI Prediction and Service
Solar and Space weather group
3
![Page 4: Cause and Effect of - NICTaoswa.nict.go.jp/workshop_3/program/pdf/E1/06.pdf · Geomagnetic Storms during Sep. 12-13, 2014 2 strong flares • 09/08 23:12 M4.6 (N14E31) • 09/10 17:21](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071019/5fd31244389ad720f7032302/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
2014 Sep. 11, 02:16 UT, Report from KASI
4
![Page 5: Cause and Effect of - NICTaoswa.nict.go.jp/workshop_3/program/pdf/E1/06.pdf · Geomagnetic Storms during Sep. 12-13, 2014 2 strong flares • 09/08 23:12 M4.6 (N14E31) • 09/10 17:21](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071019/5fd31244389ad720f7032302/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
2014 Sep. 11, 02:16 UT, Report from KASI
Report from RRA
5
![Page 6: Cause and Effect of - NICTaoswa.nict.go.jp/workshop_3/program/pdf/E1/06.pdf · Geomagnetic Storms during Sep. 12-13, 2014 2 strong flares • 09/08 23:12 M4.6 (N14E31) • 09/10 17:21](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071019/5fd31244389ad720f7032302/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
6
![Page 7: Cause and Effect of - NICTaoswa.nict.go.jp/workshop_3/program/pdf/E1/06.pdf · Geomagnetic Storms during Sep. 12-13, 2014 2 strong flares • 09/08 23:12 M4.6 (N14E31) • 09/10 17:21](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071019/5fd31244389ad720f7032302/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Real-time simulation of RB
7 VERB provided by UCLA
![Page 8: Cause and Effect of - NICTaoswa.nict.go.jp/workshop_3/program/pdf/E1/06.pdf · Geomagnetic Storms during Sep. 12-13, 2014 2 strong flares • 09/08 23:12 M4.6 (N14E31) • 09/10 17:21](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071019/5fd31244389ad720f7032302/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
North Polar Route monitoring
Proton Flux HF attenuation @ 8.83
![Page 9: Cause and Effect of - NICTaoswa.nict.go.jp/workshop_3/program/pdf/E1/06.pdf · Geomagnetic Storms during Sep. 12-13, 2014 2 strong flares • 09/08 23:12 M4.6 (N14E31) • 09/10 17:21](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071019/5fd31244389ad720f7032302/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
2. Effects
Solar and Space weather group
9
![Page 10: Cause and Effect of - NICTaoswa.nict.go.jp/workshop_3/program/pdf/E1/06.pdf · Geomagnetic Storms during Sep. 12-13, 2014 2 strong flares • 09/08 23:12 M4.6 (N14E31) • 09/10 17:21](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071019/5fd31244389ad720f7032302/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
ICME’s arrival
1st : 09/11 ~23h UT 2nd: 09/12 ~ 16h UT
Bz during two ICMEs looks positive (N)
10
2 Geomagnetic Storms • 09/11 23h UT : Kp=5, Dst = -20 nT • 09/12 21h UT : Kp=6, Dst=-75 nT
![Page 11: Cause and Effect of - NICTaoswa.nict.go.jp/workshop_3/program/pdf/E1/06.pdf · Geomagnetic Storms during Sep. 12-13, 2014 2 strong flares • 09/08 23:12 M4.6 (N14E31) • 09/10 17:21](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071019/5fd31244389ad720f7032302/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Ground observation at BOH (L = 1.35)
Fluxgate and Mageto-Impedence magnetometer
11
1st Shock 09/11 23UT
2nd Shock 09/12 16UT
Pi2 Pulsations (6-25 mHz) observed after the shocks
![Page 12: Cause and Effect of - NICTaoswa.nict.go.jp/workshop_3/program/pdf/E1/06.pdf · Geomagnetic Storms during Sep. 12-13, 2014 2 strong flares • 09/08 23:12 M4.6 (N14E31) • 09/10 17:21](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071019/5fd31244389ad720f7032302/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Multipoint observations in the magnetosphere
X
Y
GSE X-Y plane
12
![Page 13: Cause and Effect of - NICTaoswa.nict.go.jp/workshop_3/program/pdf/E1/06.pdf · Geomagnetic Storms during Sep. 12-13, 2014 2 strong flares • 09/08 23:12 M4.6 (N14E31) • 09/10 17:21](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071019/5fd31244389ad720f7032302/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
9/13 (KST) 9/12 (KST)
9/11 (KST) Space weather data 13
![Page 14: Cause and Effect of - NICTaoswa.nict.go.jp/workshop_3/program/pdf/E1/06.pdf · Geomagnetic Storms during Sep. 12-13, 2014 2 strong flares • 09/08 23:12 M4.6 (N14E31) • 09/10 17:21](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071019/5fd31244389ad720f7032302/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
RBSP/MagEIS observation
Science data
14 Drop outs
Science data
![Page 15: Cause and Effect of - NICTaoswa.nict.go.jp/workshop_3/program/pdf/E1/06.pdf · Geomagnetic Storms during Sep. 12-13, 2014 2 strong flares • 09/08 23:12 M4.6 (N14E31) • 09/10 17:21](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071019/5fd31244389ad720f7032302/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
NOAA POES observation
electron proton 15
![Page 16: Cause and Effect of - NICTaoswa.nict.go.jp/workshop_3/program/pdf/E1/06.pdf · Geomagnetic Storms during Sep. 12-13, 2014 2 strong flares • 09/08 23:12 M4.6 (N14E31) • 09/10 17:21](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071019/5fd31244389ad720f7032302/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Global Thermosphere/Ionosphere
Strom Time 16
![Page 17: Cause and Effect of - NICTaoswa.nict.go.jp/workshop_3/program/pdf/E1/06.pdf · Geomagnetic Storms during Sep. 12-13, 2014 2 strong flares • 09/08 23:12 M4.6 (N14E31) • 09/10 17:21](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071019/5fd31244389ad720f7032302/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
KASI VHF ionosphere observations E region F region
40.8MHz, KAF, CSR 17
![Page 18: Cause and Effect of - NICTaoswa.nict.go.jp/workshop_3/program/pdf/E1/06.pdf · Geomagnetic Storms during Sep. 12-13, 2014 2 strong flares • 09/08 23:12 M4.6 (N14E31) • 09/10 17:21](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071019/5fd31244389ad720f7032302/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
3. Cause
Solar and Space weather group
18
![Page 19: Cause and Effect of - NICTaoswa.nict.go.jp/workshop_3/program/pdf/E1/06.pdf · Geomagnetic Storms during Sep. 12-13, 2014 2 strong flares • 09/08 23:12 M4.6 (N14E31) • 09/10 17:21](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071019/5fd31244389ad720f7032302/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Empirical model for forecast of ge oe ffe c tive CMEs us ing Solar Data
Empirical storm prediction model (Kim et al., 2010, JGR) We derived the empirical storm prediction formulas by using CME parameters. Direction parameter has the best correlation with the storm strength. Since the source locations of geoeffective CMEs are asymmetrical in
longitude, we consider West 15° offset. We divide CMEs into two groups according to their magnetic field
orientation.
Forecast Evaluation Model prediction gives us the PODy, PODn, FAR, and CSI as 0.93, 0.50, 0.26, and 0.70, respectively.
19
![Page 20: Cause and Effect of - NICTaoswa.nict.go.jp/workshop_3/program/pdf/E1/06.pdf · Geomagnetic Storms during Sep. 12-13, 2014 2 strong flares • 09/08 23:12 M4.6 (N14E31) • 09/10 17:21](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071019/5fd31244389ad720f7032302/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
• Inputs – CME time, AW, and F/B – CME source location, magnetic field orientation – CME propagation speed and direction (D)
• Outputs (forecast) – Storm time and Storm strength (Dst) – Probability of storm
Web-based empirical Model
20
![Page 21: Cause and Effect of - NICTaoswa.nict.go.jp/workshop_3/program/pdf/E1/06.pdf · Geomagnetic Storms during Sep. 12-13, 2014 2 strong flares • 09/08 23:12 M4.6 (N14E31) • 09/10 17:21](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071019/5fd31244389ad720f7032302/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
CME speed: CMEs during Sep. 8~11, 2014 LASCO/C2, C3 and CME lists
• Cactus
From Cactus : 2014/09/09 CME speed ~ 900 km/s : 2014/09/10 CME speed ~ 1600 km/s
21
2 strong flares • 09/08 23:12 M4.6 (N14E31) • 09/10 17:21 X1.6 (N11E05)
![Page 22: Cause and Effect of - NICTaoswa.nict.go.jp/workshop_3/program/pdf/E1/06.pdf · Geomagnetic Storms during Sep. 12-13, 2014 2 strong flares • 09/08 23:12 M4.6 (N14E31) • 09/10 17:21](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071019/5fd31244389ad720f7032302/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Source Location and Magnetic field direction (AR 12158)
: HMI magnetogram and AIA 304
Strong chromospheric emission (near footpoint) - Eastern part of active region
22
Southward -direction
![Page 23: Cause and Effect of - NICTaoswa.nict.go.jp/workshop_3/program/pdf/E1/06.pdf · Geomagnetic Storms during Sep. 12-13, 2014 2 strong flares • 09/08 23:12 M4.6 (N14E31) • 09/10 17:21](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071019/5fd31244389ad720f7032302/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Geomagnetic Storm Forecasts (M4.6 flare) 2014/09/09 00:16 CME
• V ~ 900 km/s • D=0.49
Forecast
• Expected arrival: 09/11 05 ~ 11h UT • Expected Dst = -64 nT (if N=-46nT) • Arrival: 09/11 ~ 23h UT • Dst = -20nT
23
![Page 24: Cause and Effect of - NICTaoswa.nict.go.jp/workshop_3/program/pdf/E1/06.pdf · Geomagnetic Storms during Sep. 12-13, 2014 2 strong flares • 09/08 23:12 M4.6 (N14E31) • 09/10 17:21](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071019/5fd31244389ad720f7032302/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Geomagnetic Storm Forecasts (X1.6 flare) 2014/09/10 17:36 CME
• V ~ 1600 km/s • D = 0.65
Forecast
• Expected arrival: 09/12 11~17h UT • Expected Dst = -174 nT (if N=-104nT) • Minor Storm: 09/12, 16h UT • Dst= -75 nT
24
![Page 25: Cause and Effect of - NICTaoswa.nict.go.jp/workshop_3/program/pdf/E1/06.pdf · Geomagnetic Storms during Sep. 12-13, 2014 2 strong flares • 09/08 23:12 M4.6 (N14E31) • 09/10 17:21](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071019/5fd31244389ad720f7032302/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Two CMEs (?) erupted by the X1.6 flare
25
![Page 26: Cause and Effect of - NICTaoswa.nict.go.jp/workshop_3/program/pdf/E1/06.pdf · Geomagnetic Storms during Sep. 12-13, 2014 2 strong flares • 09/08 23:12 M4.6 (N14E31) • 09/10 17:21](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071019/5fd31244389ad720f7032302/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
26
![Page 27: Cause and Effect of - NICTaoswa.nict.go.jp/workshop_3/program/pdf/E1/06.pdf · Geomagnetic Storms during Sep. 12-13, 2014 2 strong flares • 09/08 23:12 M4.6 (N14E31) • 09/10 17:21](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071019/5fd31244389ad720f7032302/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
328 km/s
128 km/s
27
![Page 28: Cause and Effect of - NICTaoswa.nict.go.jp/workshop_3/program/pdf/E1/06.pdf · Geomagnetic Storms during Sep. 12-13, 2014 2 strong flares • 09/08 23:12 M4.6 (N14E31) • 09/10 17:21](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071019/5fd31244389ad720f7032302/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
28
Magnetic field in the source region (AR 12158)
2014/09/11 00:00 UT 2014/09/10 00:00 UT 2014/09/09 00:00 UT
R1 R2
28
![Page 29: Cause and Effect of - NICTaoswa.nict.go.jp/workshop_3/program/pdf/E1/06.pdf · Geomagnetic Storms during Sep. 12-13, 2014 2 strong flares • 09/08 23:12 M4.6 (N14E31) • 09/10 17:21](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071019/5fd31244389ad720f7032302/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Helicity Injection through the Local Regions
R1
R2
29
M4.6
X1.6
![Page 30: Cause and Effect of - NICTaoswa.nict.go.jp/workshop_3/program/pdf/E1/06.pdf · Geomagnetic Storms during Sep. 12-13, 2014 2 strong flares • 09/08 23:12 M4.6 (N14E31) • 09/10 17:21](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071019/5fd31244389ad720f7032302/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Estimation of Field Line Direction from Helicity
Potential Field Sheared Field
Left-handed Left-handed
Solar wind Northward Bz
30
![Page 31: Cause and Effect of - NICTaoswa.nict.go.jp/workshop_3/program/pdf/E1/06.pdf · Geomagnetic Storms during Sep. 12-13, 2014 2 strong flares • 09/08 23:12 M4.6 (N14E31) • 09/10 17:21](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071019/5fd31244389ad720f7032302/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Geomagnetic Storm Forecasts 2014/09/10 17:36 CME
• V ~ 1100 km/s • D = 0.81 • M = North
Forecast
• Expected arrival: 09/12 11 ~ 09/13 00h UT • Expected Dst = -127nT • Storm: 09/12 ~ 16h UT • Dst=-75 nT (13 0h)
1000 km/s
1100 km/s
31
![Page 32: Cause and Effect of - NICTaoswa.nict.go.jp/workshop_3/program/pdf/E1/06.pdf · Geomagnetic Storms during Sep. 12-13, 2014 2 strong flares • 09/08 23:12 M4.6 (N14E31) • 09/10 17:21](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071019/5fd31244389ad720f7032302/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Summary
32
• Cause - There were two geomagnetic storms on Sep. 11th and Sep. 12th , 2014. - The first weak storm was driven by the CME related to M4.6 flare and the second minor storms was driven by one of the CMEs related to X1.6 flare. - The second storm was not strong because it was caused by the fast CME originated from the eastern part of the AR 12158 with northward magnetic field.
• Effect - Electron flux in radiation belt increases in low energy channel while decreases in High energy channel (VAP observation) - Electron and proton precipitation were observed by POES satellite - TEC and O/N2 show a decrease in the polar region.
![Page 33: Cause and Effect of - NICTaoswa.nict.go.jp/workshop_3/program/pdf/E1/06.pdf · Geomagnetic Storms during Sep. 12-13, 2014 2 strong flares • 09/08 23:12 M4.6 (N14E31) • 09/10 17:21](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071019/5fd31244389ad720f7032302/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
www.kasi.re.kr
Thank you
33