Commodity Current 1 Wk Ago

$/Euro OB OB

$/Yen OB OB

2-Year OS OS

10-Year OS OS

Gold N OS

Silver OS OS

Copper OS N

Crude Oil OB OB

Heating Oil OB OB

Gasoline OB N

Natural Gas OB OB

OS N OB

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

Oct-20 Dec-20 Feb-21 Apr-21 Jun-21 Aug-21 Oct-21

Bonds Outperforming Stocks

Stocks Outperforming Bonds

Ticker % Chg. Occ. Chg. Percent Up Chg. Percent Up

SWX 6.6 13 -0.6 46.2 -1.6 30.8

CAR 6.5 74 1.5 60.8 4.8 62.2

APPS 6.1 105 1.4 61.0 4.6 61.0

ABMD 5.9 16 0.2 62.5 -2.0 37.5

CMTL -10.8 8 1.2 50.0 5.3 50.0

TCMD -7.7 42 -0.6 45.2 -2.3 35.7

GDOT -7.7 29 0.5 51.7 2.6 58.6

SLVM -7.5 0 n/a n/a n/a n/a

Average Return (%)

Next Day Next Week

Index/Sector Current 1 Wk Ago

S&P 500 OS OS

Cons Discret. OS N

Cons Staples OS OS

Energy OB OB

Financials OB N

Health Care OS OS

Industrials OS OS

Materials OS OS

Technology OS OS

Comm. Svcs OS OS

Utilities OS OS

OS N OB

S&P 500 50-Day Moving Average Spread S&P 500 Internals Yesterday’s Movers

Relative Strength of Stocks versus Bonds

S&P 500 Overbought and Oversold Stocks (Percentage) Trading Ranges: Sectors

Trading Ranges: Bonds/Commodities

S&P 500 Overbought Stocks Most Likely to Fall

S&P 500 Oversold Stocks Most Likely to Rise

Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21

Extreme Overbought

Overbought

Oversold

Extreme Oversold

45.6

18.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21

Green indicates percentage of oversold stocks, and red indicates percentage of overbought stocks.

OB

OS

Indicator Change50-Day Moving Avg Spread i -2.1 % -2.0 %10-Day A/D Line h 379 -305# of Overbought Stocks h 94 86

# of Oversold Stocks h 228 212

P/E Ratio Trailing i 26.02 26.06 Forward i 21.15 21.55

Dividend Yield h 1.36 % 1.36 %

Credit Spreads (bps)High Yield h 321 313Corporate Bonds h 89 87

Current One Week Ago


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For an explanation of the first two pages of this report, please click here.

Ticker Price

WMB 27.26 3.03 -2.02 23.5

Standard Deviations

Above 50-Day Avg

Avg % Return

(One Week)

Percent of

Time Positive

Ticker Price

AMD 101.81 -1.02 2.31 57.7

MSCI 602.63 -1.26 2.00 74.1

Standard Deviations

Below 50-Day Avg

Avg % Return

(One Week)

Percent of

Time Positive


https://www.bespokepremium.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Morning-Lineup-Explained.pdf

BBG US Dollar Index: Last Six Months

BBG US Dollar Index: Last 15 Trading Days

1110

1120

1130

1140

1150

1160

1170

4/6 5/4 6/1 6/29 7/27 8/24 9/21

1110

1120

1130

1140

1150

1160

1170

1180

4/6 5/4 6/1 6/29 7/27 8/24 9/21

50-DMA: 1148

200-DMA: 1135

1138

1142

1146

1150

1154

1158

1162

1166

1170

1174

9/9 9/13 9/15 9/17 9/21 9/23 9/27 9/29

1168

Gold Future: Last Six Months

Gold Front Month Future: Last 15 Trading Days

1650

1700

1750

1800

1850

1900

1950

4/1 4/29 5/27 6/25 7/26 8/23 9/21

1650

1700

1750

1800

1850

1900

1950

4/1 4/29 5/27 6/25 7/26 8/23 9/21

1710

1730

1750

1770

1790

1810

1830

9/9 9/13 9/15 9/17 9/21 9/23 9/27 9/29

200-DMA: 1806

50-DMA: 1788 1726

S&P 500: Last Six Months

S&P 500: Last 15 Trading Days

3750

3850

3950

4050

4150

4250

4350

4450

4550

4650

3/31 4/29 5/27 6/25 7/26 8/23 9/21

3750

3850

3950

4050

4150

4250

4350

4450

4550

4650

3/31 4/29 5/27 6/25 7/26 8/23 9/21

4250

4300

4350

4400

4450

4500

4550

9/9 9/13 9/15 9/17 9/21 9/23 9/27 9/29

200-DMA: 4131

50-DMA: 4444

4359

Russell 2000: Last Six Months

Russell 2000: Last 15 Trading Days

1950

2000

2050

2100

2150

2200

2250

2300

2350

2400

3/31 4/29 5/27 6/25 7/26 8/23 9/21

200-DMA: 2215

2120

2166

2212

2258

2304

9/9 9/13 9/15 9/17 9/21 9/23 9/27 9/29

50-DMA: 2229

2225

Nasdaq Composite: Last Six Months

Nasdaq Composite: Last 15 Trading Days

12300

12800

13300

13800

14300

14800

15300

15800

3/31 4/29 5/27 6/25 7/26 8/23 9/21

12300

12800

13300

13800

14300

14800

15300

15800

3/31 4/29 5/27 6/25 7/26 8/23 9/21

50-DMA: 14915

200-DMA: 13940

14300

14500

14700

14900

15100

15300

15500

9/9 9/13 9/15 9/17 9/21 9/23 9/27 9/29

14512

Oil Future: Last Six Months

Oil Future: Last 15 Trading Days

4/1 4/29 5/27 6/25 7/26 8/23 9/21

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

4/1 4/29 5/27 6/25 7/26 8/23 9/21

200-DMA: 64

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

9/9 9/13 9/15 9/17 9/21 9/23 9/27 9/29

50-DMA: 70

74.66


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DJ Transports: Last Six Months

DJ Transports: Last 15 Trading Days

12500

13000

13500

14000

14500

15000

15500

16000

16500

3/31 4/29 5/27 6/25 7/26 8/23 9/21

12500

13000

13500

14000

14500

15000

15500

16000

16500

3/31 4/29 5/27 6/25 7/26 8/23 9/21

200-DMA: 14276

13800

14000

14200

14400

14600

14800

9/9 9/13 9/15 9/17 9/21 9/23 9/27 9/29

50-DMA: 14549

14243

Long Bond Future: Last Six Months

Long Bond Future Intraday: Last 15 Trading Days

151

154

157

160

163

166

4/6 5/4 6/2 6/30 7/29 8/26 9/24

151

154

157

160

163

166

4/6 5/4 6/2 6/30 7/29 8/26 9/24

200-DMA: 159

158

159

160

161

162

163

164

165

9/9 9/13 9/15 9/17 9/21 9/23 9/27 9/29

50-DMA: 163

159.44


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BespokePremium.com © Copyright 2021, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained from

sources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its

accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the

purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not

responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

4

Morning Commentary Overview: Energy commodities are lower on the day after an overnight surge, with all commodity

groups lower on the session. US equity index futures are off overnight lows but point to a decline of

nearly 1% at the open, with rates slightly higher and credit under pressure as the dollar rallies. Crypto

prices are modestly higher over the last 24 hours. ADP payrolls estimates for September beat estimates

this morning, and there’s nothing else on the US data slate. DC continues to discuss a debt ceiling raise.

Global Economic Scorecard

RBNZ: Overnight, the Kiwis took off from the zero lower bound, joining Norway and a number of

emerging markets central banks in their hikes off the lowest policy rates on record globally. The policy

committee also guided “further removal of monetary stimulus is expected over time” as “capacity pres-

sures remain evident” and are “seen feeding through to inflation”. Despite the hike, NZDUSD is having

tis second-worst session of the past 8 weeks, down 1%, while AUDNZD (a purer-play on the RBNZ’s im-

pact that removes the global dollar impact from the cross) is at its highest level since July and having its

second-best session since the first day of June. Kiwi rates were little-changed. This is an excellent ex-

ample of a positioning-led change creating a seemingly paradoxical market reaction to a catalyst, not a

super-dovish assessment of what the RBNZ said last night.

APAC Markets: Chinese property developer Fantasia defaulted on a $200mm bond that was due Mon-

day, fueling more concern about Chinese property activity beyond Evergrande; developer Sinic Hold-

ings group also missed an interest payment on local debt in recent days. Onshore China remains closed

but Hong Kong was down 0.6% last night with H-shares (Hong Kong-listed onshore companies) down

1.2%. Japan continued to drop with the TOPIX down 8 days in a row for the worst 8 day loss since the

COVID shock (-7.1%). Korea remains in freefall with the KOSPI down 1.8%; that index has fallen 6.1%

over the last 5 trading days to the lowest close of the year. Australia, India, and Taiwan were all lower

but Indonesia surged 2% with Singapore and the Philippines also higher. Singapore-listed iron ore has-

n’t moved much during the Chinese holiday, while the dollar was broadly higher versus local FX.

Europe Markets: It’s been a dramatic day for energy in Europe. Front-month natural gas futures in the

UK (for December delivery) traded up as much as 39% to more than 400 GBP per contract which is

equivalent to more than $70 natural gas in the Henry Hub contract traded in the US. For context, that

contract trades for around $6.20 currently, illustrating the massive shock. The domestic US natural gas-

LNG global demand arbitrage is wide open right now and as we noted in The Closer last night (link), US

LNG terminals are sending more than $2bn of natural gas abroad per month. That number will only rise

as incomplete LNG terminal projects come online in coming years. Since mid-session highs, prices have

moved sharply lower and front-month natural gas is now down in the UK futures market. The reversal

came following headlines from Russian President Putin, who appears to be setting the stage for a large

release of natural gas supplies to Europe with commentary today arguing “European authorities made

mistakes” in how they have managed supply like the pending Nordstream 2 pipeline from Russia.

The STOXX 6600 is down 1.5% with every group lower and 6 groups down over 2%. Personal Care/Drug

Stores/Groceries are least-hit, down 55 bps, while Travel & Leisure is down 3% and Retail is down 2.5%.

Yields are slightly higher, with cash EUR high yield getting hit very hard. EURUSD is down 51 bps to new

52-week lows while GBPUSD is reversing some of its rally from the past week.

https://www.bespokepremium.com

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/economic-monitors/eco-global

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/the-closer/the-closer-more-1-days-valuation-compression-no-stagflation-transit-10-5-21







5

Overnight Data: German factory orders fell almost 8% in August as the country’s manufacturing sector

staggered under the painful effects of auto supply chain shocks. While capital goods led the decline,

autos were the biggest driver with ripple effects across the Mittelstand. We also note battery order

volumes bounced after a few huge declines, though their growth has dropped after a spectacular run in

2020. In Sweden, factory order volumes were down a third consecutive month, and monthly GDP esti-

mates completely whiffed. Eurozone retail sales also missed estimates in a broadly weaker result for

European data than economists had been expecting, but they are still running above the pre-COVID

trend of growth. Finally, MBA mortgage purchase applications updated this morning continue to sug-

gest total home sales will bottom in the next couple of months if they haven’t already.

Morning Commentary

Germany Factory Order Volumes (2015 = 100): Capital Goods Lead The Huge Miss In August

German Auto Hits Keep Coming (Order Volume, 2015 = 100) Swedish Orders Also Drop; Down 3m In A Row

EZ Consumers Still Spending Above Trend Home Transactions Have Officially Stabilized

55

65

75

85

95

105

115

125

Total

Total: Domestic

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Capital Goods

Intermediate Goods

Consumer Goods

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

Autos

Batteries & Accumulators

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

Sweden Industrial Orders Volume(2015 = 100)

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

Eurozone Retail SalesVolume

2014 - 2019 Trend:1.8% Ann. Growth

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

170

190

210

230

250

270

290

310

330

350 Monthly Avg MortgageApplications for HomePurchase, Adv 1m

New + Existing Home Salesmm SAAR








6

Coronavirus: Case counts, hospitalizations, and deaths are continuing to roll over in the US which is a

welcome development. In terms of vaccination rates, we’re getting very close to three-quarters of the

US population over the age of 12 receiving at least one shot while nearly two-thirds are fully vaccinat-

ed.

Morning Commentary

COVID-19 National Tracking Data: As-Of 10/4/2021

Note: As-of 10/2/2021

Note: As-of 10/3/2021

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Period Subject To Most Revision

Persons Receiving First Dose (% 12+Population, Daily Change, 7d Avg)

JNJ Paused

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

New Cases ('000s)

7-Day Moving Avg

1

6

11

16

21

26

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000 Total Tests 7dAvg ('000s)

Period MostSubject ToRevision

7 Day PositiveTest Rate (%)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Total COVID-19Hospitalizations ('000s)Period Most Subject ToRevision

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Partially Vaccinated (% 12+ Population)

Fully Vaccinated (% 12+ Population)

Total w 1+ dose: 73.5%

Fully Vax'd: 63.4%

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

Deaths

7-Day Moving Avg








7

Morning Commentary Global New Cases Per Day Per mm Population (7d Avg)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

World

Americas Ex US

EU

East Asia

Africa

US

Rest of World

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

World

East Asia

Africa

India

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400Ethiopia

Ghana

Kenya

Nigeria

South Africa

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Canada

Brazil

Chile

Mexico

US

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

FranceGermanyItalySpainUnited KingdomSweden

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

China

Japan

South Korea

Singapore


category one week two weeks one month 56 97

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