catch+the+moment+of+tet+ +understanding+retailer+sentiment+-+09
TRANSCRIPT
UNDERSTANDING RETAILER SENTIMENT
CATCH THE MOMENT OF ‘TET’
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3. WHAT IS EXPECTED IN TET 2015?
2. WHAT CHANGED IN TET 2014?
1. THE HISTORICAL TET
UNDERSTANDING
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SLUGGISH GROWTH
GROWING EXPORTS
MODERATE INFLATION
THE VIETNAM MARKET IS SEEING TWO STREAMS
CPI
EXPORT GROWTH
GDP
2013 2014 TARGET 2014 YTD
Source: GSO
Source: GSO
Source: GSO
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Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics – Total Vietnam (MT2Partial)
12.4%
-5.1%
15.1% 13.6%
13.8%
7.7%
-1.3% -4.2%
-8.6%
-5.8%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
THE VOLATILITY OF MARKET MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PREDICT LONG TERM TREND…
Nationwide – 15 categories
Source: Nielsen Regional Growth Reporter – Growth vs YA
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HOW WILL TET 2015 BE?
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3. WHAT IS EXPECTED IN TET 2015?
2. WHAT CHANGED IN TET 2014?
1. THE HISTORICAL TET
UNDERSTANDING
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BEER, SOFT DRINK & BISCUIT/CANDY ARE THE TOP MOST RECALLED CATEGORIES FOR TET
BEER CARBONATED SOFT DRINK
BISCUIT/ CANDY
80.0
90.0
100.0
110.0
120.0
130.0
140.0
150.0
160.0
170.0
180.0
CSD
Biscuit
Pie & Sponge Cake
Beer
HCL
Granules
Soluble Coffee
VOLUME SEASONALITY INDEX – 6 CT TT
Source: Nielsen Retail Audit & Tet Study 2014 (N=192 HCMC + HN) Question: What are the top 3 best selling categories in your stores in Tet?
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Super group_trend6 CT TT - Stocks | Period Ending JUL14 | Share of Total Non-Food
NOV 25%
JAN 13%
DEC 45%
34% 37% 52% 20%
BIG SMALL
MOST RETAILERS START STOCKING IN NOV/DEC AND MAINLY STOCK FOR BEVERAGE & FOOD
WHEN?
WHAT?
Question: Which month do you normally start stocking for Tet?
Source: Nielsen Retail Audit & Tet Study 2014 (N=192 HCMC + HN)
Note: Super-groups are on different scales
Personal Care & Home Care stocks still manage to increase, yet at lesser extent
STOCKING
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3. WHAT IS EXPECTED IN TET 2015?
2. WHAT CHANGED IN TET 2014?
1. THE HISTORICAL TET
UNDERSTANDING
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DESPITE THE INCREASE IN PURCHASES RETAILERS NEVER SAW THE OFF TAKE IN 2014
49%
33%
17%
Less
Same
More
19 26
18 17 10
16
CSD Beer
6 CT TT - Volume % Chg vs. PP
Tet'12 Tet'13 Tet'14
14 13 9
16
9 11
Urban Rural
Granules - Volume % Chg vs. PP
Declining off-take of Tet’14 is mainly seen in Beverage, esp. CSD
Rural seems to be more impacted than Urban when compared with previous Tet
Question: How was the off-take of Tet'14
compared with previous Tet in your store?
Source: Nielsen Retail Audit & Tet Study 2014 (N=192 HCMC + HN)
Tet’12 (Dec-Jan-Feb); Tet’13 (Jan-Feb-Mar); Tet’14 (Dec-Jan-Feb)
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3. WHAT IS EXPECTED IN TET 2015?
2. WHAT CHANGED IN TET 2014?
1. THE HISTORICAL TET
UNDERSTANDING
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STOCKING PERIODS SHOULD REMAIN THE SAME AS IN THE PAST, BUT SHOULD WE BE PUSHING EARLIER?
Source: Tet Study 2014
24 29 19
37 22
12
40 45
35
40
40 40
21 16
26
9 23
32
11 8 15 4
15 15
Total(n=192)
HCM(n=98)
HN(n=94)
Big(n=67)
Medium(n=65)
Small(n=60)
Month retailers start stocking for Tet’15
November December January Not stock for Tet
Question:Which month do you plan to start stocking for Tet’15?
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51 %
1
39%
NEARLY HALF PLAN ON STOCKING LESS FOR TET’15
Source: Tet Study 2014
Question: What are reasons for you to plan reducing level of stock for Tet'15 compared with Tet'14? To what extent do you plan to reduce the stock level for Tet’15 compared with Tet'14?
45%
42%
13%
Less Same More
Question: Compared with Tet'14,
how do you plan stocking for Tet’15?
HCMC (n= 98)
Hanoi (n= 94)
Declining consumer demand
72%
Declining personal finance
24%
29% 55% 16%
48% 44% 8%
Stock reduction by
(n= 38)
(n= 48)
STOCKING
WHY?
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61 %
47 %
ALARMINGLY OVER HALF ANTICIPATE LOWER OFF-TAKE VS. TET’14
Source: Tet Study 2014
Question: To what extent do you anticipate off-take of Tet'15 will decline compared with Tet’14?
54% 34%
13%
Less Same More
Question: How do you anticipate the off-take Tet’15 compared with previous Tet?
HCMC (n= 98)
Hanoi (n= 94)
37% 48% 15%
42% 44% 14%
Declining off-take by
(n= 46)
(n= 57)
BUT HOW CAN I WIN DESPITE THIS DOOM AND GLOOM?
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RETAILERS WANT ASSURANCES THAT YOUR PRODUCTS WILL SELL
Source: Tet Study 2014
Quality guarantee/ Product return/ refund support
Provide POSM/ Decoration materials to promote for Tet
Promotion scheme for retailers achieving Tet sale target
Promotion scheme for retailers having impressive display
Quality guarantee/ Product return/ refund support
Provide POSM/ Decoration materials to promote for Tet
Promotion activities for end-users
Promotion scheme for retailers having impressive display
HCMC (n= 98)
Hanoi (n= 94)
57%
47%
39%
29%
74%
33%
32%
24%
Question: To attract more consumers in Tet, what kind of activities you would
like manufacturers to support your stores?
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STATING THE OBVIOUS – MARGINS MATTER
Source: Tet Study 2014 Question: Which retailer incentive schemes do you prefer?
Tangible gift (eg. Rice cooker, Washing machine, etc.)
% Margin on Purchase 90%
47%
30% Bonus same product if meet
sales target
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SHOPPERS ARE SEEKING INSTANT VALUE WITH ATTRACTIVE APPEARANCE PRODUCTS
Source: Tet Study 2014
Economic Offer (eg. Discount, super-saving package, etc.)
Attached gifts (toys, kitchenware,
etc.)
Nice/ eye-catching
Tet packing
Question On the scale from 1 to 5, please rank the preference of shoppers at your stores towards these offers?
68%
52%
66%
% Preferred & Preferred Most
Similar between HCMC & Hanoi,
except Lucky Draw, in which HCMC prefers this type more than Hanoi (44% vs. 19%)
WHERE TO FROM HERE
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MORE PURCHASING POWER
Source: Monthly income per capita: GSO 2012 Occupation structure & Urbanization rate: Rural Census 2011
Education level: Nielsen Rural Syndicated Study 2009 & Nielsen Rural 2014
COMPETITION WILL GROW SO WE NEED TO ENGAGE RETAILERS
Engage earlier e.g. XMAS and Easter in Europe and US
Stack them high see them fly But if it doesn’t, will you buy it back?
Times are tough but people still will pay for value
Don’t stop innovating This is when people try new things
“A PESSIMIST SEES THE DIFFICULTY IN EVERY OPPORTUNITY; AN OPTIMIST SEES THE OPPORTUNITY IN EVERY DIFFICULTY.” WINSTON CHURCHILL