casualty acturial society – spring meeting...crash avoidance and driver assistance systems have a...
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Casualty Acturial Society – Spring Meeting
© 2009 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.
Chassis Systems Control
New Safety Features for Crash Avoidance
Dr. Kay Stepper
Robert Bosch LLC
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New Safety Features for Crash Avoidance
© 2009 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.
Chassis Systems Control
Agenda
• Overview and Technology Milestones
• U.S. Accident Statistics & Consumer Interests
• Concepts for Crash Avoidance Systems
• Vision Systems for Driver Assistance
• Conclusions
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New Safety Features for Crash Avoidance
© 2009 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.
Chassis Systems Control
The Bosch Group
Bosch Group Sales: 46.3 billion euros1)
Associates on Jan. 1, 2008: 271,000
Consumer Goods & Building Technology
Sales: 11.7 billion euros Share of total sales: 26 %
Industrial Technology
Sales: 6.0 billion euros
Share of total sales: 13 %
1) Including other business areas
Automotive Technology
Sales: 28.4 billion euros
Share of total sales: 61 %
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New Safety Features for Crash Avoidance
© 2009 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.
Chassis Systems Control
Robert Bosch GmbH 1% share of equity
No voting rights
Robert Bosch Foundation 92% share of equity
No voting rights
Bosch Family 7% share of equity
7% voting rights
Robert Bosch Industrietreuhand KG
93% voting rights
Ownership structure
5 5 5
New Safety Features for Crash Avoidance
© 2009 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.
Chassis Systems Control
Robert Bosch Foundation
➔ Established: 1964 ➔ Supports solely charitable purposes ➔ 92 % of the company’s 1.2 billion euro capital stock is held by the foundation ➔ Total project grants 2007: 58.9 m euros ➔ Grants from 1964 to 2007: 840 m euros
Areas supported:
- Science and research
- Health and humanitarian aid
- International relations – western Europe, USA
- International relations – central and eastern Europe
- Education and society
- Society and culture
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New Safety Features for Crash Avoidance
© 2009 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.
Chassis Systems Control
Automotive Safety Technology Milestones
Night Vision
iBolt Classification System
Long Range Radar & Domain Control Unit
1972 1978 1991
Halogen Headlights Anti Lock Brakes
1980 1988
Rollover Sensing Single Point Crash Sensing
Anti Pinch Control
1993
Park Assist
1995
Electronic Stability Control
Rain Sensor
1996 1999 2006 2005 2001 2000
Rollover Mitigation Occupant Sensing
Brake Assist
2009
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New Safety Features for Crash Avoidance
© 2009 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.
Chassis Systems Control
U.S. Automotive Consumer Trends
5. Driving Pleasure 6. Personalized Usage 7. Inexpensive Vehicle 8. Be Premium
2. Relaxed Driving 3. Affordable Driving 4. Safe Driving 1. Hassle Free
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New Safety Features for Crash Avoidance
Key Findings from Accident Research: Most accidents are caused by driver error
Driver distraction in particular
Key Findings from Consumer Clinics: Most drivers believe they are “good drivers” and don’t need “assistance” Many drivers do not really understand driver assist systems System assessment based on individual experience, i.e.
Blind Spot Detection popular due to exposure in everyday driving Minor interest in Lane Departure Warning, unless incident experienced
© 2009 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.
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Driver Behavior and Consumer Assessment
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New Safety Features for Crash Avoidance
© 2009 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.
Chassis Systems Control
Road safety – A public health issue1
1Sources: IATSS Yearbook 2006, CARE 2006 (EU27), DfT- Transport Statistics GB 2007, NHTSA Traffic Safety Facts 2006, Road Traffic Safety Authority Korea 2006, Yearbook 2006 Traffic Accidents China, Sindipeças 2007, DENATRAN 2006, RAMI Annual Report 2006, Ministry of Shipping, Road Transport & Highways, govt. of India
91.4
293.8
251.4
19.5
45.4
145.2
36.9
87.9
7,272
42,953
42,642
6,327
19,755
89,455
32,700
105,749
0.89
1.28
1.78
0.21
0.32
0.38
0.23
0.46
FatalitiesRoad accidents involving injuries [Mio]
Registered motor vehicles [Mio]
1 : 12,500
1 : 6,800
1 : 5,900
1 : 3,100
1 : 2,300
1 : 1,600
1 : 1,200
1 : 830
Fatality risk per vehicle
* 2005
(fatalities within 30 days after accident)
* **** fatalities within 7 days after accident
91.4
293.8
251.4
19.5
45.4
145.2
36.9
87.9
7,272
42,953
42,642
6,327
19,755
89,455
32,700
105,749
0.89
1.28
1.78
0.21
0.32
0.38
0.23
0.46
FatalitiesRoad accidents involving injuries [Mio]
Registered motor vehicles [Mio]
1 : 12,500
1 : 6,800
1 : 5,900
1 : 3,100
1 : 2,300
1 : 1,600
1 : 1,200
1 : 830
Fatality risk per vehicle
* 2005
(fatalities within 30 days after accident)
* **** fatalities within 7 days after accident
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New Safety Features for Crash Avoidance
© 2009 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.
Chassis Systems Control
U.S. Accident Data*
* Source: IIHS 2008: Analysis of 2002-2006 NASS accidents. Various function definitions in use
1 Systems which mitigate frontal crashes by alerting drivers and/or by automatic braking
2 Systems which alert drivers if the vehicle is drifting out of lane
Forward Collision Warning with Automatic Braking1 could prevent approximately 2,300,000 crashes and approximately 7,200 fatalities per year
Lane Departure Warning2 could prevent approximately 480,000 crashes and approximately 10,000 fatalities per year
Accidents Avoided %
2
7
8
8
38
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Automatic Headlamp Control
Brake Assist
Blind Spot Detection
Lane Departure Warning2
Forward Collision Mitigation11
2
Reduction of Fatalities %
7
9
1
30
21
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Automatic Headlamp Control
Brake Assist
Blind Spot Detection
Lane Departure Warning2
Forward Collision Mitigation11
2
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New Safety Features for Crash Avoidance
Collision data (1/2)
1%
20%
11%
© 2009 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.
45%
5% 2%
Chassis Systems Control
10%
6% 2%
32% 3%
23% 28%
4% 4%
4%
vehicle moving ahead or waiting parked vehicle
vehicle moving laterally in same direction oncoming vehicle
vehicle which turns into or crosses a road pedestrian fixed object or vehicle leaving carriageway Accident of another kind (unknown, not fixed object, animal …)
collision with ...
Predictive Safety Systems, Adaptive Cruise Control, Brake Assist
Electronic Stability Control, Lane Keeping Support, Advanced Rollover Sensing, Early Pole Crash Detection
Lane Change Assist, Side View Assist
accidents with fatalities n = 38,588
accidents with casualties n = 1,784,588
1 Vehicle to Bicycle - accidents in category „Others“
1 1
sources: NHTSA/NCSA 2006
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New Safety Features for Crash Avoidance
Collision data (2/2)
1%
20%
11%
45%
© 2009 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.
5% 2%
10%
6% 2%
32% 3%
23% 28%
4% 4%
4%
Chassis Systems Control
accidents with fatalities n = 38,588
vehicle moving ahead or waiting parked vehicle
vehicle moving laterally in same direction oncoming vehicle
vehicle which turns into or crosses a road pedestrian fixed object or vehicle leaving carriageway Accident of another kind (unknown, not fixed object, animal …)
collision with ...
sources: NHTSA/NCSA 2006
accidents with casualties n = 1,784,588
Advanced Electronic Pedestrian Protection, Brake Assist
Intersection Assistant
1 1
1 Vehicle to Bicycle - accidents in category „Others“
Secondary Collision Mitigation
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New Safety Features for Crash Avoidance
© 2009 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.
Chassis Systems Control
Predictive Safety System
13
New Safety Features for Crash Avoidance
© 2009 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.
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Multiphase safety concept
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New Safety Features for Crash Avoidance
© 2009 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.
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2 Maximum possible deceleration was determined based on weather and road conditions.
1 Based on 1184 rear end crashes in GIDAS (German In-Depth Accident Study). For 727 cases deceleration, weather and road conditions are known.
. Ratio of actual braking compared to maximum possible deceleration2
37%
1 % 3 % 9 %
32 %
18 %
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
0% 1 - 25% 26 - 50% 51 - 75% 76 - 99% 100%
Sha
re o
f ac
cide
nts
No Braking Full Braking Partial Braking
Driver Braking Behavior Vehicle Deceleration Prior to Rear End Crashes1
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New Safety Features for Crash Avoidance
© 2009 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.
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Automatic Emergency Braking
full braking no braking partial braking 37% 45% 18%
Reaction Time Gain through partial braking Crash severity reduction if collision unavoidable
Driver behavior prior to
rear-end crash
Brake Assist
Systems
Support to correct errors
miti
gatio
n
Emergency Braking Driver initiated Target Braking Assist
brak
e su
ppor
t
Predictive Collision Driver warning by visual, acoustic means and / or brake jerk Warning
early
war
ning
early
war
ning
early
w
arni
ng
Optimal Deceleration with Emergency Braking
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New Safety Features for Crash Avoidance
AEB Automatic
Emergency Braking EBA
Emergency Braking Assist
Radar
PCW Predictive Collision Warning
ESC
+ Video
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Predictive Emergency Braking Systems
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New Safety Features for Crash Avoidance
© 2009 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.
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Effectiveness Study Emergency Braking Assist
Accident Avoidance Germany*: Avoidance of 8 500 rear-end collisions with injuries/year 10 600 rear-end crashes where accident severity could be significantly reduced
Mercedes Benz, 06/08 (DISTRONIC PLUS & Brake Assist PLUS) All rear-end crashes - 20 % Rear-end crashes on motorways - 36 % Additional rear-end collisions, where accident severity could be significantly reduced 25 %
* Source: Bosch based on GIDAS
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New Safety Features for Crash Avoidance
© 2009 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.
Chassis Systems Control 19
Sensor Data Fusion Video & Radar
Applications Automatic Emergency Braking (AEB)
Adaptive Cruise Control - full speed range All stand-alone video & radar functions (e.g. Lane Departure Warning)
Vision
Radar
Object Detection & Verification with both systems
~ 45 °
30 °
= Object to detect and classify
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New Safety Features for Crash Avoidance
© 2009 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.
Chassis Systems Control
Lane Departure Warning Camera tracks vehicle’ s course within lane markings Acoustic & haptic warning if vehicle drifting out of lane Early detection of driver’ s inattention No false alerts by evaluating the driver’s intention
Lane Keeping Support LKS1: Weak steering torque or brake activation when vehicle approaching lane marking LKS2: Smooth returning to center line Medium steering torque LKS3: Keeping the vehicle along the center line Stronger steering torque
detection lines
Multi Purpose Camera
Lane Keeping
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New Safety Features for Crash Avoidance
© 2009 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.
Chassis Systems Control
Regulation Trends
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Regulatory Activity
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2008
FMVSS 214 – Side Impact Upgrade
FMVSS 126 – ESC for passenger vehicles
FMVSS 122 NPRM – Motorcycle Brake Systems
Event Data Recorder – 49 CFR 563
FMVSS 111 ANPRM – Rearview Mirrors
Occupant Ejection Mitigation Final Rule due
FMVSS 216 – Roof Crush Resistance Final Rule due
NCAP Update to include ESC (until MY12), FCW, LDW
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New Safety Features for Crash Avoidance
© 2009 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.
Chassis Systems Control
Crash avoidance and driver assistance systems have a high potential to prevent crashes and reduce road fatalities and injuries.
With the new New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) for model year 2011, NHTSA
encourages vehicle manufacturers to implement these new safety systems.
Cost effective technologies for crash avoidance and driver assistance are in mass
production today.
In order to realize the crash avoidance potential, a high market penetration will be
needed.
Conclusions
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New Safety Features for Crash Avoidance
Contact Information
© 2009 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.
Chassis Systems Control
Dr. Kay Stepper Director Marketing & Product Planning (248) 876-2956 [email protected] Robert Bosch LLC. 38000 Hills Tech Dr. Farmington Hills, MI, 48331
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