carrie law — ceo & director, juwai...global hnwi & ultra hnwi asset allocation noah’s...

© Juwai Holdings Limited 2018, Confidential and Proprietary Information PAGE 2

Carrie Law — CEO & Director, Juwai.com


Expectation?

• Chinese Overseas Real Estate Investment Trends

• Destinations & Property Types

• Key Factors


Carrie LawCarrie Law

2 XX20

LINKEDIN: https://hk.linkedin.com/in/mediacarrielaw

CEO & DirectorJuwai.com

https://hk.linkedin.com/in/mediacarrielaw


Investment Trends


2016 – GlobalCommercial + Residential

$101.4 billion


The Size


Top Destinations

Top Destinations 2016 2017

1 United States United States

2 Australia Australia

3 Canada Thailand

4 United Kingdom Canada

5 New Zealand United Kingdom


The Heat


Current Investment TrendsMedia:

Dow Jones’ Mansion Global (AU)

Juwai Estimates:Chinese invest

AUD6 billion in Australian residential real estate

each year

Facts:Chinese snap up to 20% of newly built apartments in

Australia



South China Morning Post(CN)

Juwai’s Insights:Brooklyn’s median listing prices USD760 / sq ft vs.

Beijing City’s centre apartments is USD1430 / sq ft

Facts:Brooklyn now beats Queens

Chinese is the largest immigrant group in Brooklyn

Brooklyn’s Sunset Park neighbourhood is now the

largest China Town in New York



The New Statesment(UK)

Juwai’s Insights:250% YoY enquiries surge

80% of Chinese buyers in Manchester are investors

53% Chinese buyers in London are for self-use

(double Manchester, 19%)

Facts:Manchester has a great

investment and economic story yet only a fraction of Chinese want to live there


Current Investment Trends

Media: Better Dwelling (CA)

Juwai’s Insights:Toronto & Montreal property prices surge due to cheap &

easy credit. Not Chinese.

Sparked investment & upgrade boom among

Canadians

Canadian home prices will decline, not because of

foreign buyers but Canada’s Office of

Superintendent of Financial Institutions in Oct:

hold mortgage applicants to higher standards



China Daily (SEA)

Juwai’s Insights:BNR appeals to investors to

choose residential property in TH, MY, CA, SG

Other countries’ yield less appealing as compared with

SEA


The Size in 2017… 2018?


Factors Affecting Demand

• Positive:• Belt & Road Initiative• Purchase and loan restrictions in many mainland cities• Low rental yield in major mainland cities (1%-2%)• Increasing number of HNW families

• 1.47 million “10-million RMB” families as of 1st Jan 2017, 9.7% YoY (Hurun)

• Negative:• Fluctuations in economy and political aspects – China, Global• China Regulatory Factors — Capital controls, etc.• Foreign investor restrictions imposed in many developed markets• Raising interest rates in many developed economies: US, Canada etc.

© Juwai Holdings Limited 2018, Confidential and Proprietary Information PAGE 19PAGE 19 © Juwai Limited 2017, Confidential and Proprietary Information

Belt & Road Initiative:

• 6 Corridors & Maritime Silkroad

• Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB)

• Focus on Infrastructure– Railway, Highways– Communication– Energy– Education and Tourism

• $3 trillion trade volume 14-16


View full article

“Rent growth can’t seem to catch up with price advances.”

“Year-on-year new home price growth in Xiamen plunged to 14.7 per cent in June from 38.8 per cent in January, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, which ranks it as the city most prone to a property bubble.”

“The yields in 13 cities slipped below 2 per cent, suggesting an accumulation of risk in the market.”

http://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/2103116/plunging-chinese-rental-yields-point-property-bubbles-major


Consumer Wealth


It will take at least $1.5 trillion of Investment for China to move up to 25%

How BIG & FAR could China go in ODI?

Thank you!

[email protected]

Add Carrie Law

Let’s WeChat

LINKEDIN: https://hk.linkedin.com/in/mediacarrielaw

https://hk.linkedin.com/in/mediacarrielaw

Fall of the titans

Some relevant

statsChinese investment in U.S. homes:

2017: $31.7 billion2016: $27.3 billion2015: $28.6 billion

Source: National Association of Realtors

How to get your money out of China

1. Pool it together2. Underground bank, HK insurance3. Use your overseas business4. Kids’ education5. Buy a Chinese developer’s project6. Other ways w/o money actually crossing

a border

Debates going on…

And, a personal story

I’m pretty easy to find:

[email protected]@dominiquefong

WeChat: domifong

mailto:[email protected]

Globalization of Investment

--- Real Estate

Kenny Lam

Group President, Noah Holdings

April 4th, 2018

Noah is the largest independent private wealthmanager in China serving ~200K HNWI clients

2

Distribution of Noah Branches

# of Noah

branches

1~4

5~9

10~19

20 or more

1,335

1,335

dedicated

relationship

managers

3.6%

3.6%

turnover

rate for top

relationship

managers in

2017

237

237

branches

across

China

79

79 cities

covering

top tier

cities and

key

provincial

capitals

Noah’s Average Transaction Value per Client

(RMB mm)

Number of Noah Registered Clients

~200k7.03

7.878.43

9.23

2014 2015 2016 2017

Melbourne（2018）

Taipei（2013）Hong Kong

（2012）

New York（2017）

Vancouver（2018）

Silicon Valley

（2016）

Globalization is a core strategy for us

9

6

120

Years since

NYSE IPO

Overseas

Offices

Overseas

Employees

Active Management+ Ecosystem Player

• More than 5 years experience in active

management

• Invested in over 125 projects and collaborated

with more than 40 top developers

• Accumulated investment over 85bn RMB

• Covering and monitoring over 70 real estate

related companies for 3 years

• Heavily invested in 5

• Have our own RE operational management team

We have a strong foothold in the real estate sector

Involved in the Upstream and Downstream Markets

Traditional RE Partners

What changes

are taking

place among

Chinese

HNWIs?

6

As a percentage of all HNWIs, first generation entrepreneurs has fallen sharply from 70% to 40%, whereas second generation and professionals have risen.

More Mature

From wealth creation to wealth preservation

Longer-term Considerations

More emphasis onestate planning

1

Broader Vision

From domestic to global allocation

Substantial changes in investment mood and behavior

Investment

Philosophy

Emerging

Fields

Industry

Trends

International

Markets

2 Strong motivation to learn and gain knowledge

Real Estate Direct Equity

Private Equity Funds

Credit

3 Allocation in a more diversified set of asset classes globally

Estate

Planning

Family

Office

Insurance

Discretionary

Management

4 Strong demand for comprehensive financial solutions

PE/VC

30-40%

Secondary Market

20-30%Real Estate

15-20%

Fixed Income

10-20%

Overseas Products

20-30%

Noah’s Asset Allocation Strategy 2018Global HNWI & Ultra HNWI Asset Allocation

2%10%

22%

46%

33%

15%15%

9%

28%20%

HNWI Ultra HNWI

Cash Alternatives

Fixed Income International Equities

Domestic Equities

Data Source: The Ultra High Net Worth Investor White Paper by KKR (May 2017) Data Source: 1H2018 Noah Investment Strategy Report

As a key alternative asset, Real Estate is preferred by HNWIs

Noah clients’ primary motivation for purchasing overseas properties is investment

Source: Survey of Noah diamond clients conducted by Juwai at Noah annual gala in 2017

7%

8%

10%

22%

23%

30%Investment

Risk decentralization

Children overseas education

Settle down

Holiday/Leisure

High-yield from emerging markets

MOTIVATION FOR OVERSEAS PROPERTY INVESTMENT

TOTAL RESPONDENTS: 400

North America is their top destination

• 82% are interested in purchasing

overseas property

• 52% are interested but in need of

services and support

• Tier 1 destinations are still in the

most demand (North America at

37%, Australia/NZ at 25%)

• Stable amount of interest in Tier 2

destinations (SEA, EUR, Asia, and

others)

37%

25%

9%

16%

9%

4%

NorthAmerica

ANZ SoutheastAsia

Europe Asia (HK,Japan)

Other

TOP DESTINATIONS


2/3 of clients would pay 1-5mn RMB for an overseas property


EXPECTED PRICE RANGE

11%

32%

32%

14%

9%

2%Above 10 mn

7 -10 mn

5- 7mn

3 - 5mn

0.5 – 1mn

1 - 3mn

Rmb

Besides investing in properties directly, investing

in REAL ESTATE FUNDS is another choice

Gopher US Real Estate Fund Strategy

Roy Chen

Partner, Managing Director

• 16 years industry experience

• Solid investment track record

and broad network

Diversified

Regions

Value-add

Approach

Foreseeable

Exit

Strategy

Clear

Structure

Excellent

Professional

Team

3

2

6

5

1

4Transparent

Valuation

Adam Matmom

Director

• 7 years industry experience

• Specialized in project analysis,

due diligence and investment

structure design

Thank you!

carrie law — ceo & director, juwai...global hnwi & ultra hnwi asset allocation noah’s...

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