carmax auto owner trust 2020-1 - s&p global · 2020-01-09 · presale: carmax auto owner trust...

16
Presale: Carmax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1 January 9, 2020 Preliminary Ratings Class Preliminary rating Type Interest rate(i) Base pool amount (mil. $) Upsize amount (mil. $) Expected legal final maturity date A-1 A-1+(sf) Senior Fixed 225.00 291.00 Jan. 15, 2021 A-2a/A-2b AAA (sf) Senior Fixed/floating(ii) 429.09 554.80 April. 17, 2023 A-3 AAA (sf) Senior Fixed 379.48 490.30 Dec. 16, 2024 A-4 AAA (sf) Senior Fixed 90.00 115.20 June. 16, 2025 B AA (sf) Subordinate Fixed 28.87 37.29 Sept. 15, 2025 C A (sf) Subordinate Fixed 27.10 35.00 Nov. 17, 2025 D BBB (sf) Subordinate Fixed 20.45 26.40 July 15, 2026 Note: This presale report is based on information as of Jan. 9, 2020. The ratings shown are preliminary. Subsequent information may result in the assignment of final ratings that differ from the preliminary ratings. Accordingly, the preliminary ratings should not be construed as evidence of final ratings. This report does not constitute a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell securities. (i)The tranches' coupons will be determined on the pricing date. (ii)The class A-2 notes may be split into a fixed-rate class A-2a and a floating-rate class A-2b. The sizes of classes A-2a and A-2b will be determined at pricing, though the principal balance of the class A-2b notes is not expected to exceed $107.27 million ($138.7 million for the upsized pool). The class A-2b coupon will initially be expressed as a spread tied to one-month LIBOR. Profile Expected closing date Jan. 22, 2020. Collateral Prime auto loan receivables. Issuer CarMax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1. Originator, sponsor, and servicer CarMax Business Services LLC. Depositor and seller CarMax Auto Funding LLC. Indenture trustee Wilmington Trust N.A. Owner trustee U.S. Bank Trust N.A. Lead underwriter Bank of America Securities. Presale: Carmax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1 January 9, 2020 PRIMARY CREDIT ANALYST Peter W Chang, CFA New York (1) 212-438-1505 peter.chang @spglobal.com SECONDARY CONTACT Steve D Martinez New York (1) 212-438-2881 steve.martinez @spglobal.com www.standardandpoors.com January 9, 2020 1 © S&P Global Ratings. All rights reserved. No reprint or dissemination without S&P Global Ratings' permission. See Terms of Use/Disclaimer on the last page. 2365251

Upload: others

Post on 13-Aug-2020

3 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Carmax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1 - S&P Global · 2020-01-09 · Presale: Carmax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1 January 9, 2020 Preliminary Ratings Class Preliminary rating Type Interest rate(i)

Presale:

Carmax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1January 9, 2020

Preliminary Ratings

ClassPreliminaryrating Type Interest rate(i)

Base poolamount (mil.

$)

Upsizeamount (mil.

$)

Expected legalfinal maturitydate

A-1 A-1+(sf) Senior Fixed 225.00 291.00 Jan. 15, 2021

A-2a/A-2b AAA (sf) Senior Fixed/floating(ii) 429.09 554.80 April. 17, 2023

A-3 AAA (sf) Senior Fixed 379.48 490.30 Dec. 16, 2024

A-4 AAA (sf) Senior Fixed 90.00 115.20 June. 16, 2025

B AA (sf) Subordinate Fixed 28.87 37.29 Sept. 15, 2025

C A (sf) Subordinate Fixed 27.10 35.00 Nov. 17, 2025

D BBB (sf) Subordinate Fixed 20.45 26.40 July 15, 2026

Note: This presale report is based on information as of Jan. 9, 2020. The ratings shown are preliminary. Subsequent information may result inthe assignment of final ratings that differ from the preliminary ratings. Accordingly, the preliminary ratings should not be construed asevidence of final ratings. This report does not constitute a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell securities. (i)The tranches' coupons will bedetermined on the pricing date. (ii)The class A-2 notes may be split into a fixed-rate class A-2a and a floating-rate class A-2b. The sizes ofclasses A-2a and A-2b will be determined at pricing, though the principal balance of the class A-2b notes is not expected to exceed $107.27million ($138.7 million for the upsized pool). The class A-2b coupon will initially be expressed as a spread tied to one-month LIBOR.

Profile

Expected closing date Jan. 22, 2020.

Collateral Prime auto loan receivables.

Issuer CarMax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1.

Originator, sponsor, and servicer CarMax Business Services LLC.

Depositor and seller CarMax Auto Funding LLC.

Indenture trustee Wilmington Trust N.A.

Owner trustee U.S. Bank Trust N.A.

Lead underwriter Bank of America Securities.

Presale:

Carmax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1January 9, 2020

PRIMARY CREDIT ANALYST

Peter W Chang, CFA

New York

(1) 212-438-1505

[email protected]

SECONDARY CONTACT

Steve D Martinez

New York

(1) 212-438-2881

[email protected]

www.standardandpoors.com January 9, 2020 1

© S&P Global Ratings. All rights reserved. No reprint or dissemination without S&P Global Ratings' permission. See Terms of Use/Disclaimeron the last page.

2365251

Page 2: Carmax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1 - S&P Global · 2020-01-09 · Presale: Carmax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1 January 9, 2020 Preliminary Ratings Class Preliminary rating Type Interest rate(i)

Credit Enhancement Summary (%)

Series 2020-1 Series 2019-4

Initial(i) Target(i) Floor(i) Initial(i) Target(i) Floor(i)

Class A

Subordination 6.35 6.35 6.35 5.85 5.85 5.85

Reserve account 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25

O/C 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25

Total 6.85 6.85 6.85 6.35 6.35 6.35

Class B

Subordination 3.95 3.95 3.95 3.60 3.60 3.60

Reserve account 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25

O/C 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25

Total 4.45 4.45 4.45 4.10 4.10 4.10

Class C

Subordination 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.60 1.60 1.60

Reserve account 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25

O/C 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25

Total 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.10 2.10 2.10

Class D

Reserve account 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25

O/C 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25

Total 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50

Estimated annual excessspread(ii)

4.80 (4.79 forupsize)

-- -- 5.26 (5.25 forupsize)

-- --

(i)Applicable for both the $1.20 billion base and the $1.55 billion upsized structure. (ii)Percentage of the initial receivables balance.O/C--Overcollateralization.

Rationale

The preliminary ratings assigned to CarMax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1's (CAOT 2020-1's) autoreceivables asset-backed notes reflect:

- The availability of approximately 11.9%, 9.9%, 7.6%, and 5.2% credit support for the base andupsized pools' class A, B, C, and D notes, respectively, based on our stressed break-even cashflow scenarios. These credit support levels provide more than 5.0x, 4.0x, 3.0x, and 2.0x our2.15%-2.25% expected net loss range to the class A, B, C, and D notes, respectively.

- Our expectation that under a moderate ('BBB') stress scenario, the ratings on the class A, B,and C notes will remain within one rating category and the rating on the class D will remainwithin two categories of the preliminary ratings throughout the transaction's life, which isconsistent with our credit stability criteria (see "Methodology: Credit Stability Criteria,"published May 3, 2010).

- The transaction's ability to make timely interest and principal payments under stressed cash

www.standardandpoors.com January 9, 2020 2

© S&P Global Ratings. All rights reserved. No reprint or dissemination without S&P Global Ratings' permission. See Terms of Use/Disclaimeron the last page.

2365251

Presale: Carmax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1

Page 3: Carmax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1 - S&P Global · 2020-01-09 · Presale: Carmax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1 January 9, 2020 Preliminary Ratings Class Preliminary rating Type Interest rate(i)

flow modeling scenarios appropriate for the assigned preliminary ratings.

- The performance of CarMax Business Services LLC's (CarMax's) previous securitizations since2001.

- The collateral characteristics of the securitized pool of auto loans, including a weightedaverage non-zero FICO score of approximately 710.

- The transaction's payment and legal structures.

Credit Enhancement Changes From Series 2019-4

- The initial total hard credit enhancement is unchanged for the class D notes but has increasedfor class A, B, and C to 6.85%, 4.45%, and 2.20%, respectively, from 6.35%, 4.10%, and 2.10%.The increases result from subordination increasing to 6.35% from 5.85% for class A, to 3.95%from 3.60% for class B, and to 1.70% from 1.60% for class C.

- The target overcollateralization remains unchanged at 0.25% of the initial pool balance.

- Annual excess spread has decreased to 4.80% (4.79% for upsized structure) from 5.26%(pre-pricing), which offsets the initial increase in hard enhancement for class A, B, and C. Allclasses are sufficiently enhanced to withstand our stress scenarios at the assigned preliminaryratings.

Collateral Changes From Series 2019-4

The series 2020-1 collateral characteristics are slightly better than those of series 2019-4, in ourview (see table 2). Some of the notable characteristics, indicative of the series 2020-1 base pool'scollateral credit quality, that we consider in our expected loss analysis include:

- That the percentage of the pool from the company's highest internal credit score category (tierA) increased to 53.6% from 50.9%.

- That the percentage of the pool with original terms greater than 60 months decreased to 61.5%from 62.5%.

- That the weighted average non-zero FICO score increased to 710 from 705.

- That the weighted average annual percentage rate decreased to 8.05% from 8.63%.

- The weighted average loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of 94.6%.

Our expected loss range for the series 2020-1 pool is 2.15%-2.25%, which is slightly lower thanour original 2.20%-2.30% range for series 2019-4. Series 2020-1's slightly lower lifetime lossexpectation reflects the slightly improved credit quality of the pool and is closer in quality to series2019-2, which has the same expected original loss range.

Transaction Structure

CarMax will sell a pool of auto loan receivables to CarMax Auto Funding LLC, which will then sellthe receivables to CAOT 2020-1, the transaction's issuing trust (see chart 1).

In rating this transaction, we will review the legal matters we believe are relevant to our analysisas outlined in our criteria.

www.standardandpoors.com January 9, 2020 3

© S&P Global Ratings. All rights reserved. No reprint or dissemination without S&P Global Ratings' permission. See Terms of Use/Disclaimeron the last page.

2365251

Presale: Carmax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1

Page 4: Carmax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1 - S&P Global · 2020-01-09 · Presale: Carmax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1 January 9, 2020 Preliminary Ratings Class Preliminary rating Type Interest rate(i)

Transaction Summary

The series 2020-1 transaction incorporates the following structural features:

- A sequential-pay mechanism among the class A, B, C, and D notes that is expected to result inmore credit enhancement, as a percentage of the current pool balance, for the more-seniorclasses as the pool amortizes.

- Notes that pay a fixed interest rate except for the class A-2b notes, which pay a floating interestrate tied to one-month LIBOR. The exact amounts of the class A-2a and A-2b notes will bedetermined at pricing, though the principal balance of the class A-2b notes is not expected toexceed $107.27 million ($138.70 million for the upsized structure).

- Subordination of approximately 6.35%, 3.95%, and 1.70% for classes A, B, and C, respectively.

- A nonamortizing reserve account that will equal 0.25% of the initial pool balance.

- Nonamortizing overcollateralization of 0.25% of the initial pool balance.

The series 2020-1 transaction documents include fallback language that closely follows therecommended contractual language published on May 31, 2019, by the Federal Reserve's

www.standardandpoors.com January 9, 2020 4

© S&P Global Ratings. All rights reserved. No reprint or dissemination without S&P Global Ratings' permission. See Terms of Use/Disclaimeron the last page.

2365251

Presale: Carmax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1

Page 5: Carmax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1 - S&P Global · 2020-01-09 · Presale: Carmax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1 January 9, 2020 Preliminary Ratings Class Preliminary rating Type Interest rate(i)

Alternative Reference Rates Committee (ARRC) for new issuances of LIBOR securitizations. In theevent of a LIBOR cessation or the occurrence of a benchmark transition event, both as defined inthe transaction documents and by ARRC, the class A-2b floating rate will be allowed to transitionfrom LIBOR as the benchmark rate. We currently do not expect the ultimate discontinuance ofLIBOR to have a material impact on the preliminary ratings. We will continue to monitor the eventsrelated to this topic as they evolve and evaluate potential impact to our ratings, if any.

Payment Structure

The trust will pay scheduled interest and principal on the rated notes on each monthly distributiondate beginning Feb. 18, 2020. The payment priority that CarMax presented to S&P Global Ratingsindicated that the trust will use the auto loan collections to make the distributions as shown intable 1. In addition, the reserve account's funds are intended to be available to pay interestshortfalls and make priority principal payments.

Table 1

Payment Waterfall

Priority Payment

1 Servicer fee (1.00% per year).

2 Pro rata: the successor servicer fees (if the servicer has been replaced) and transition expenses capped at$175,000, and then any asset representations reviewer fees and expenses capped at $175,000.

3 Class A note interest, pro rata.

4 The first-priority principal distributable amount to the class A noteholders, sequentially, to maintain the classA notes' parity with the receivables.

5 Class B note interest.

6 The second-priority principal distributable amount, sequentially, to maintain the class A and B notes' paritywith the receivables.

7 Class C note interest.

8 The third-priority principal distributable amount, sequentially, to maintain the class A, B, and C notes' paritywith the receivables.

9 Class D note interest.

10 The fourth-priority principal distributable amount, sequentially, to maintain the class A, B, C, and D notes'parity with the receivables.

11 To the reserve account until the required amount is met.

12 The regular principal distributable amount, sequentially, to the class A-1, A-2, A-3, A-4, B, C, and D notes untileach class is paid in full. (This will also maintain overcollateralization to the target amount.)

13 Pro rata: unpaid transition expenses exceeding the cap amounts listed in item 2 that are due in the event of aservicer termination; any additional servicing fees that are to be paid to the successor servicer, and any unpaidfees; unpaid indemnity amounts due to the successor servicer exceeding the cap amounts listed in item 2;expenses due to the asset representations reviewer that exceed the related cap amounts listed in item 2; andamounts due and owing to the indenture trustee under the indenture, which have not been previously paid infull.

14 Any remainder to the certificateholders.

www.standardandpoors.com January 9, 2020 5

© S&P Global Ratings. All rights reserved. No reprint or dissemination without S&P Global Ratings' permission. See Terms of Use/Disclaimeron the last page.

2365251

Presale: Carmax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1

Page 6: Carmax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1 - S&P Global · 2020-01-09 · Presale: Carmax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1 January 9, 2020 Preliminary Ratings Class Preliminary rating Type Interest rate(i)

Pool Analysis

As of the Dec. 31, 2019, cut-off date, the series 2020-1 pool consists of 71,238 loans (92,022 in theupsized pool) totaling $1.20 billion ($1.55 billion in the upsized structure) in motor vehicle loansoriginated by CarMax's affiliates (see table 2). We believe the series 2020-1 pool's creditcharacteristics are slightly improved compared with those of series 2019-4 and better than thoseof the 2016 transactions, which are expected to experience losses of 2.10%-2.65%.

Table 2

Collateral Comparison(i)

Series2020-1

(upsized)

Series2020-1(base)

Series2019-4

Series2019-3

Series2019-2

Series2019-1

Series2018-4

Series2018-3

Series2018-2

Series2018-1

Receivablesbalance(bil. $)

1.554 1.203 1.504 1.504 1.368 1.506 1.507 1.440 1.336 1.357

No. ofreceivables

92,022 71,238 91,203 90,510 86,231 91,421 91,790 86,950 83,474 84,935

Avg. loanbalance ($)

16,886 16,887 16,488 16,614 15,869 16,474 16,424 16,562 16,009 15,974

Weightedavg. APR(%)

8.04 8.05 8.63 8.59 8.51 8.43 8.27 7.99 7.69 7.54

Weightedavg. originalterm (mos.)

66.18 66.20 66.39 66.29 66.15 66.18 66.12 66.10 65.97 65.94

Weightedavg.remainingterm (mos.)

61.40 61.41 61.72 62.12 61.16 61.62 61.77 61.87 61.04 61.31

Weightedavg.seasoning(mos.)

4.78 4.79 4.67 4.17 4.99 4.56 4.34 4.23 4.93 4.63

Weightedavg. FICOscore

710 710 705 705 707 706 706 706 707 707

Originalterm 61–72months (%)

61.36 61.49 62.54 62.32 61.56 61.68 61.07 60.74 59.53 59.49

Newvehicles (%)

0.42 0.43 0.27 0.29 0.33 0.36 0.27 0.20 0.22 0.30

Usedvehicles (%)

99.58 99.57 99.73 99.71 99.67 99.64 99.73 99.80 99.78 99.70

Top five state concentrations (%)

CA=17.09 CA=17.05 CA=17.01 CA=17.61 CA=17.96 CA=17.42 CA=17.07 CA=16.96 CA=17.05 CA=18.00

TX=11.40 TX=11.38 TX=11.09 TX=10.41 TX=10.84 TX=10.39 TX=10.67 TX=13.43 TX=13.40 TX=11.69

FL=7.94 FL=7.95 FL=8.11 FL=8.64 FL=8.93 FL=8.32 FL=8.54 FL=8.93 FL=9.62 FL=9.22

GA=6.23 GA=6.26 GA=6.56 GA=6.46 GA=7.01 GA=6.36 GA=6.32 GA=6.10 GA=6.16 GA=6.04

www.standardandpoors.com January 9, 2020 6

© S&P Global Ratings. All rights reserved. No reprint or dissemination without S&P Global Ratings' permission. See Terms of Use/Disclaimeron the last page.

2365251

Presale: Carmax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1

Page 7: Carmax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1 - S&P Global · 2020-01-09 · Presale: Carmax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1 January 9, 2020 Preliminary Ratings Class Preliminary rating Type Interest rate(i)

Table 2

Collateral Comparison(i) (cont.)

Series2020-1

(upsized)

Series2020-1(base)

Series2019-4

Series2019-3

Series2019-2

Series2019-1

Series2018-4

Series2018-3

Series2018-2

Series2018-1

VA=5.65 VA=5.58 VA=5.77 VA=5.82 VA=5.76 IL=5.17 VA=5.39 VA=5.26 VA=5.23 VA=5.40

(i)All percentages are of the initial receivables balance. APR--Annual percentage rate. CNL--Cumulative net loss.

Securitization Performance

CarMax's securitization performance improved following the recession. But, similarly to its peers,CarMax's 2016 and early 2017 vintages are exhibiting slightly higher losses. The more recentseries--2018-3, 2018-2, 2017-3, and 2017-4--are currently performing generally in line with ourinitial expectations, and, as a result, our expected cumulative net loss (CNL) remained unchangedin our surveillance reports published Oct. 1, 2019, and Feb. 7, 2019.

CarMax's series 2007-1 through 2009-1 pools experienced approximately 2.7%-3.9% in CNLs.These older pools had lower weighted average FICO scores (672-684) and weaker distributionsaccording to the issuer's credit grades, and they weathered a sharp rise in the nationalunemployment rate. The series 2009-2 through 2014-4 pools, which had stronger credit gradedistributions, better collateral characteristics, and benefited from an improving economy, werepaid off with CNLs of 1.3%-2.2%.

Our original or revised loss expectations on the still-outstanding series (series 2016-1 through2019-4) range from 2.15% to 2.65% (see the Surveillance Update section and charts 2-4).

While the 2016 transactions are performing worse than our initial expectations (with CNLs of2.35%-2.65%), we have observed that starting from series 2017-3 and onwards appear to beperforming generally in line with our initial expected CNL ranges of 2.15%-2.30%.

www.standardandpoors.com January 9, 2020 7

© S&P Global Ratings. All rights reserved. No reprint or dissemination without S&P Global Ratings' permission. See Terms of Use/Disclaimeron the last page.

2365251

Presale: Carmax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1

Page 8: Carmax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1 - S&P Global · 2020-01-09 · Presale: Carmax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1 January 9, 2020 Preliminary Ratings Class Preliminary rating Type Interest rate(i)

Chart 2

Chart 3a

www.standardandpoors.com January 9, 2020 8

© S&P Global Ratings. All rights reserved. No reprint or dissemination without S&P Global Ratings' permission. See Terms of Use/Disclaimeron the last page.

2365251

Presale: Carmax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1

Page 9: Carmax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1 - S&P Global · 2020-01-09 · Presale: Carmax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1 January 9, 2020 Preliminary Ratings Class Preliminary rating Type Interest rate(i)

Chart 3b

Charts 4

www.standardandpoors.com January 9, 2020 9

© S&P Global Ratings. All rights reserved. No reprint or dissemination without S&P Global Ratings' permission. See Terms of Use/Disclaimeron the last page.

2365251

Presale: Carmax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1

Page 10: Carmax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1 - S&P Global · 2020-01-09 · Presale: Carmax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1 January 9, 2020 Preliminary Ratings Class Preliminary rating Type Interest rate(i)

Surveillance Update

We maintain ratings on 14 active CarMax Auto Owner Trust transactions that closed between 2016and 2019. We periodically revise our loss expectations on those with sufficient performance (seetable 3). On Oct. 1, 2019, we raised our ratings on three classes and affirmed our ratings for threeclasses for the 2018-2 series and raised our ratings on three classes and affirmed our ratings onfour classes for series 2018-3. On April 8, 2019, we raised our rating on two classes and affirmedour ratings for five classes for series 2018-1. On Feb. 26, 2019, we raised our ratings on fourtranches and affirmed our ratings on 10 classes from series 2017-3 and 2017-4. On Oct. 23, 2018,we raised our ratings on 14 tranches and affirmed our ratings on 20 classes across seventransactions from series 2014-4 through 2017-2.

Each of the outstanding transactions' credit enhancement remains adequately enhanced at thistime. We will continue to monitor transaction performance to evaluate the sufficiency of availablecredit enhancement and to determine if rating actions are appropriate.

Table 3

Performance Data for Outstanding CarMax Auto Owner Trust As Of The December2019 Distribution Date

Series MonthPool factor

(%) CNL (%)60+ day del

(%)Former lifetime CNL

exp. (%)(i)Revised lifetime CNL

exp. (%)

2016-1 47 12.79 2.32 2.84 2.35-2.45 Up to 2.40%(v)

2016-2 44 15.58 2.23 2.59 2.35-2.45 Up to 2.40%(v)

2016-3 41 20.49 2.38 2.51 2.60-2.70 2.55-2.65(v)

2017-2 32 32.45 1.68 1.61 2.15-2.25 2.40-2.50(i)

2017-3 29 36.21 1.53 1.65 2.15-2.25 2.15-2.25(ii)

2017-4 26 41.01 1.31 1.50 2.15-2.25 2.15-2.25(ii)

2018-1 23 45.78 1.20 1.51 2.20-2.30 2.15-2.25(iii)

2018-2 20 51.17 1.15 1.48 2.20-2.30 2.20-2.30(iv)

2018-3 17 58.38 1.00 1.52 2.20-2.30 2.20-2.30(iv)

2018-4 14 64.35 0.82 1.36 2.20-2.30 N/A

2019-1 11 70.81 0.63 1.20 2.20-2.30 N/A

2019-2 8 77.30 0.47 1.04 2.15-2.25 N/A

2019-3 5 86.13 0.14 0.76 2.20-2.30 N/A

2019-4 2 94.30 0.01 0.26 2.20-2.30 N/A

(i)Revised October 2018. (ii)Revised/maintained February 2019. (iii)Revised March 2019. (iv)Revised/maintained October 2019.(v)Revised January 2020. N/A--Not applicable.

Managed Portfolio

As of Nov.30, 2019, CarMax's serviced portfolio under its primary underwriting program totaledapproximately $13.14 billion, an approximately 7.84% increase from a year ago. Delinquencieswere flat year over year at 3.44%, while annualized net charge-offs as a percentage of the averageoutstanding balance were also flat at 0.98% (see table 4).

www.standardandpoors.com January 9, 2020 10

© S&P Global Ratings. All rights reserved. No reprint or dissemination without S&P Global Ratings' permission. See Terms of Use/Disclaimeron the last page.

2365251

Presale: Carmax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1

Page 11: Carmax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1 - S&P Global · 2020-01-09 · Presale: Carmax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1 January 9, 2020 Preliminary Ratings Class Preliminary rating Type Interest rate(i)

Table 4

Managed Portfolio Performance

As of Nov. 30 Year ended Dec. 31

2019 2018 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012

Portfolio at end of period (bil.$)

13.142 12.187 12.238 11.372 10.367 9.295 8.182 6.999 5.683

No. of contracts 1,004,480 939,959 944,952 875,063 782,772 686,375 598,558 519,806 447,080

Delinquencies (%)

31-60 days 2.20 2.22 2.30 2.15 2.09 2.10 2.18 2.15 2.19

61-90 days 1.00 0.97 1.03 0.93 0.87 0.81 0.76 0.74 0.66

91 days or more 0.24 0.25 0.27 0.27 0.29 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.24

Total delinquencies (% ofthe portfolio)

3.44 3.44 3.61 3.35 3.25 3.17 3.20 3.15 3.09

Avg. month-end amountoutstanding during theperiod (bil. $)

12.687 11.792 11.828 10.907 9.863 8.825 7.618 6.415 5.239

Net charge-offs (mil. $) 114.04 105.91 118.881 111.189 97.912 72.003 62.592 52.614 38.905

Net charge-offs (% of avg.month-end amountoutstanding(i))

0.98 0.98 1.01 1.02 0.99 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.74

(i)Annualized.

S&P Global Ratings' Expected Loss: 2.15%-2.25%

To derive the base-case loss assumptions for the series 2020-1 transaction, we examinedCarMax's static pool performance data for series 2006-2 through series 2019-4, stratified byCarMax's proprietary credit grades. The proprietary credit grade incorporates the loan structure(term and advance rate) and demographic data (income, debt-to-income ratio, andpayment-to-income ratio).

We used the 2007-2015 paid-off loss curves to project losses for the outstanding 2014-2018vintages that are not fully liquidated. We applied the pool composition weights by credit grade todetermine a weighted average loss projection for the series 2020-1 pool.

Based on our review of the static pool performance by credit grade, a peer comparison of thecollateral pool, the recent securitization performance, the managed portfolio performance, and aforward-looking view of the economy and auto sector, we expect the series 2020-1 transaction toexperience CNLs in the 2.15%-2.25% range.

Cash Flow Modeling Assumptions And Results

We modeled the transaction to simulate stress scenarios commensurate with the preliminary 'AAA(sf)', 'AA (sf)', 'A (sf)', and 'BBB (sf)' ratings (see table 5).

www.standardandpoors.com January 9, 2020 11

© S&P Global Ratings. All rights reserved. No reprint or dissemination without S&P Global Ratings' permission. See Terms of Use/Disclaimeron the last page.

2365251

Presale: Carmax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1

Page 12: Carmax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1 - S&P Global · 2020-01-09 · Presale: Carmax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1 January 9, 2020 Preliminary Ratings Class Preliminary rating Type Interest rate(i)

Table 5

Cash Flow Assumptions And Results--Fixed/Floating

Class

A B C D

Front-loaded loss curve

Preliminary rating AAA (sf) AA (sf) A (sf) BBB (sf)

Net loss timing (mos.) 12/24/36/48 12/24/36/48 12/24/36/48 12/24/36/48

Net loss (%) 30/35/25/10 30/35/25/10 30/35/25/10 30/35/25/10

ABS voluntary prepayments (%) 1.70 1.65 1.60 1.50

Recovery rate (%) 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00

Recovery lag (mos.) 3 3 3 3

Approximate break-even levels (%)(i) 11.92(11.92 if upsized)

9.93(9.93 if upsized)

8.03(8.04 if upsized)

6.28(6.29 if upsized)

Back-loaded loss curve

Preliminary rating AAA (sf) AA (sf) A (sf) BBB (sf)

Net loss timing (mos.) 12/24/36/48 12/24/36/48 12/24/36/48 12/24/36/48

Net loss (%) 25/30/30/15 25/30/30/15 25/30/30/15 25/30/30/15

ABS voluntary prepayments (%) 1.70 1.65 1.60 1.50

Recovery rate (%) 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00

Recovery lag (mos.) 3 3 3 3

Approximate break-even levels (%)(i) 11.99(11.99 if upsized)

9.98(9.98 if upsized)

7.63(7.64 if upsized)

5.20(5.21 if upsized)

(i)The maximum cumulative net losses on the pool that the transaction can withstand without triggering a payment default on the relevantclasses of notes. ABS--Absolute prepayment speed.

Based on the cash flow stress results, each class in the series 2020-1 transaction is, in our view,enhanced to the degree necessary to withstand a stressed level of net losses consistent with theassigned preliminary ratings.

Sensitivity Analysis

Besides analyzing break-even cash flows, we conducted a sensitivity analysis to see whetherunder a moderate ('BBB') stress scenario, all else being equal, our preliminary ratings wouldremain within the tolerances allowed by our rating stability criteria. We don't expect our ratings onthe class A, B, and C notes to be lowered by more than one rating category or our rating on theclass D to be lowered by more than two rating categories from our preliminary ratings while theyare outstanding (see table 6). These rating movements are within the tolerances specified by ourcredit stability criteria (see "Methodology: Credit Stability Criteria," published May 3, 2010).

Table 6

Scenario Analysis Summary

CNL level (%) 4.40

Loss timing (month 12/24/36/48) (%) 30/30/25/15

www.standardandpoors.com January 9, 2020 12

© S&P Global Ratings. All rights reserved. No reprint or dissemination without S&P Global Ratings' permission. See Terms of Use/Disclaimeron the last page.

2365251

Presale: Carmax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1

Page 13: Carmax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1 - S&P Global · 2020-01-09 · Presale: Carmax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1 January 9, 2020 Preliminary Ratings Class Preliminary rating Type Interest rate(i)

Table 6

Scenario Analysis Summary (cont.)

Voluntary ABS (%) 1.50

Servicing fee (%) 1.00

Recovery rate (%) 50.00

Potential rating decline

Class A One rating category

Class B One rating category

Class C One rating category

Class D Two rating categories

CNL--Cumulative net loss. ABS--Absolute prepayment speed.

See chart 5 for the coverage multiples over time for the class A through D notes under a moderate'BBB' stress scenario).

Chart 5

Money Market Tranche Sizing

The proposed money market tranche's (class A-1's) legal final maturity date is Jan. 15, 2021. Totest whether the money market tranche can be repaid by its maturity date, we ran cash flowsusing assumptions to delay the principal collections. We assumed zero defaults and a 0.50%absolute prepayment speed for our cash flow run, and we checked that approximately 11 monthsof principal collections would be sufficient to pay off the money market tranche.

www.standardandpoors.com January 9, 2020 13

© S&P Global Ratings. All rights reserved. No reprint or dissemination without S&P Global Ratings' permission. See Terms of Use/Disclaimeron the last page.

2365251

Presale: Carmax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1

Page 14: Carmax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1 - S&P Global · 2020-01-09 · Presale: Carmax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1 January 9, 2020 Preliminary Ratings Class Preliminary rating Type Interest rate(i)

Legal Final Maturity

To test the legal final maturity dates set for the long-dated tranches (classes A-2 through C), wedetermined the date when the respective notes were fully amortized in a zero-loss andzero-prepayment scenario and then added three months to the result. For the longest-datedsecurity (class D), we added six months to the remaining term of the longest receivable in the poolto accommodate extensions on the receivables. Furthermore, in the break-even scenario for eachrating level, we confirmed that credit enhancement was sufficient to cover losses and to repay therelated notes in full by the legal final maturity date.

CarMax

CarMax has employed the used-car store concept since 1993, and it is the largest retailer of usedcars in the U.S., with 213 used-car stores in 105 television markets as of Nov. 30, 2019. CarMaxpurchases, reconditions, and sells primarily used vehicles, as well as some new vehicles, undervarious franchise agreements. CarMax also offers a range of related products and services,including financing, extended service contracts, accessories, and repair service.

Related Criteria

- Criteria | Structured Finance | General: Methodology To Derive Stressed Interest Rates InStructured Finance, Oct. 18, 2019

- Criteria | Structured Finance | Legal: U.S. Structured Finance Asset Isolation AndSpecial-Purpose Entity Criteria, May 15, 2019

- Criteria | Structured Finance | General: Incorporating Sovereign Risk In Rating StructuredFinance Securities: Methodology And Assumptions, Jan. 30, 2019

- General Criteria: Methodology For Linking Long-Term And Short-Term Ratings, April 7, 2017

- Criteria | Structured Finance | General: Methodology: Criteria For Global Structured FinanceTransactions Subject To A Change In Payment Priorities Or Sale Of Collateral Upon ANonmonetary EOD, March 2, 2015

- Criteria - Structured Finance - General: Criteria Methodology Applied To Fees, Expenses, AndIndemnifications, July 12, 2012

- General Criteria: Global Investment Criteria For Temporary Investments In TransactionAccounts, May 31, 2012

- Criteria | Structured Finance | ABS: General Methodology And Assumptions For Rating U.S. AutoLoan Securitizations, Jan. 11, 2011

- Criteria | Structured Finance | General: Methodology For Servicer Risk Assessment, May 28,2009

Related Research

- Six Ratings Raised, Seven Affirmed On Two CarMax Auto Owner Trust Transactions, Oct. 1, 2019

- Two Ratings Raised, Five Affirmed On CarMax Auto Owner Trust 2018-1, April 8, 2019

www.standardandpoors.com January 9, 2020 14

© S&P Global Ratings. All rights reserved. No reprint or dissemination without S&P Global Ratings' permission. See Terms of Use/Disclaimeron the last page.

2365251

Presale: Carmax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1

Page 15: Carmax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1 - S&P Global · 2020-01-09 · Presale: Carmax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1 January 9, 2020 Preliminary Ratings Class Preliminary rating Type Interest rate(i)

- Four Rating Raised, 10 Affirmed On Two CarMax Auto Owner Trust Transactions, Feb. 6, 2019

- Fourteen Ratings Raised, 20 Ratings Affirmed On Seven CarMax Auto Owner TrustTransactions, Oct. 23, 2018

- Global Structured Finance Scenario And Sensitivity Analysis 2016: The Effects of the Top FiveMacroeconomic Factors, Dec. 16, 2016

In addition to the criteria specific to this type of security (listed above), the following criteriaarticles, which are generally applicable to all ratings, may have affected this rating action:"Counterparty Risk Framework: Methodology And Assumptions," March 8, 2019; "Post-DefaultRatings Methodology: When Does Standard & Poor's Raise A Rating From 'D' Or 'SD'?," March 23,2015; "Global Framework For Assessing Operational Risk In Structured Finance Transactions,"Oct. 9, 2014; "Methodology: Timeliness of Payments: Grace Periods, Guarantees, And Use of 'D'And 'SD' Ratings," Oct. 24, 2013; "Criteria For Assigning 'CCC+', 'CCC', 'CCC-', And 'CC' Ratings,"Oct. 1, 2012; "Methodology: Credit Stability Criteria," May 3, 2010; and "Use of CreditWatch AndOutlooks," Sept. 14, 2009.

www.standardandpoors.com January 9, 2020 15

© S&P Global Ratings. All rights reserved. No reprint or dissemination without S&P Global Ratings' permission. See Terms of Use/Disclaimeron the last page.

2365251

Presale: Carmax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1

Page 16: Carmax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1 - S&P Global · 2020-01-09 · Presale: Carmax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1 January 9, 2020 Preliminary Ratings Class Preliminary rating Type Interest rate(i)

S&P may receive compensation for its ratings and certain credit-related analyses, normally from issuers or underwriters of securities or from obligors.S&P reserves the right to disseminate its opinions and analyses. S&P's public ratings and analyses are made available on its Web sites,www.standardandpoors.com (free of charge), and www.ratingsdirect.com and www.globalcreditportal.com (subscription), and may be distributedthrough other means, including via S&P publications and third-party redistributors. Additional information about our ratings fees is available atwww.standardandpoors.com/usratingsfees.

S&P keeps certain activities of its business units separate from each other in order to preserve the independence and objectivity of their respectiveactivities. As a result, certain business units of S&P may have information that is not available to other S&P business units. S&P has establishedpolicies and procedures to maintain the confidentiality of certain non-public information received in connection with each analytical process.

Credit-related and other analyses, including ratings, and statements in the Content are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed andnot statements of fact. S&P's opinions, analyses and rating acknowledgment decisions (described below) are not recommendations to purchase,hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions, and do not address the suitability of any security. S&P assumes no obligation toupdate the Content following publication in any form or format. The Content should not be relied on and is not a substitute for the skill, judgment andexperience of the user, its management, employees, advisors and/or clients when making investment and other business decisions. S&P does not actas a fiduciary or an investment advisor except where registered as such. While S&P has obtained information from sources it believes to be reliable,S&P does not perform an audit and undertakes no duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives. Rating-relatedpublications may be published for a variety of reasons that are not necessarily dependent on action by rating committees, including, but not limitedto, the publication of a periodic update on a credit rating and related analyses.

To the extent that regulatory authorities allow a rating agency to acknowledge in one jurisdiction a rating issued in another jurisdiction for certainregulatory purposes, S&P reserves the right to assign, withdraw or suspend such acknowledgment at any time and in its sole discretion. S&P Partiesdisclaim any duty whatsoever arising out of the assignment, withdrawal or suspension of an acknowledgment as well as any liability for any damagealleged to have been suffered on account thereof.

Copyright © 2020 Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC. All rights reserved.

No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any partthereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrievalsystem, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P). The Content shall not beused for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. S&P and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees oragents (collectively S&P Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Content. S&P Parties are notresponsible for any errors or omissions (negligent or otherwise), regardless of the cause, for the results obtained from the use of the Content, or forthe security or maintenance of any data input by the user. The Content is provided on an “as is” basis. S&P PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESSOR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE ORUSE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS, SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT THE CONTENT'S FUNCTIONING WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED OR THAT THECONTENT WILL OPERATE WITH ANY SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION. In no event shall S&P Parties be liable to any party for any direct,indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, withoutlimitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs or losses caused by negligence) in connection with any use of the Content even if advisedof the possibility of such damages.

Standard & Poor’s | Research | January 9, 2020 16

2365251

Presale: Carmax Auto Owner Trust 2020-1