Carl Hershner Climate change impacts in Virginia Currently anticipated changes by 2100 Temperature +2 o C to +5 o C longer growing season Storm frequency may increase greater soil erosion, nutrient loss potential Precipitation increase in fall, winter decrease in summer CO 2 increase plant growth effects Sea level +3 to +5 ft salt water intrusion marsh migration into upland Pamunkey River Hill Marsh high marsh community in tidal freshwater low marsh community in tidal freshwater low marsh community in tidal freshwater Sea level changes in Virginia Relative sea level rise in Virginia Global sea level rise (1.7 3.6 mm/yr) Melting ice caps Warming (expanding) ocean water (0.4 1.6 mm/yr) Land sinking (1.1 4.8 mm/yr) Isostatic glacial rebound (1mm/yr) Local subsidence Ground water withdraw Meteor crater sediment compaction (0mm/yr) Ocean circulation (0.5 2 mm/yr) seasonal ice melting in Greenland 1992 and 2002 areas of ice sheet melting in Antarctica melting ice caps World ocean heat content - top 700 meters warming ocean water glacier 100,000 yrs ago 20,000 yrs ago today isostatic glacial rebound land subsidence due to groundwater withdrawals after Pope and Burbey, 2004 Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Gulf Stream North Atlantic Current North Atlantic Deep Water ft ft Currently anticipated changes by 2100 Temperature +2 o C to +5 o C longer growing season Storm frequency may increase greater soil erosion, nutrient loss potential Precipitation increase in fall, winter decrease in summer CO 2 increase plant growth effects Sea level +3 to +5 ft salt water intrusion 24 Source:Change in Precipitation Patterns Intense precipitation events (the heaviest 1%) in the continental U.S. increased by 20% over the past century while total precipitation increased by 7%. FLOODS 24 Projected Change in Precipitation Source: USGCRP Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States DROUGHT 25 Carl Hershner Virginia Institute of Marine Science College of William and Mary