plant biotechnology in china: investment and impacts jikun huang, ruifa hu, carl pray, scott...
TRANSCRIPT
Plant Biotechnology in China: Investment and Impacts
Jikun Huang, Ruifa Hu, Carl Pray, Scott Rozelle, Hans van Meijl, and Frank van Tongeren
Questions
• Should China continue to promote biotech and commercialize its GM food, particular the food crops such as rice?
• How much benefit China can gain from agricultural biotech development?
• How important are trade restrictions on GM products by other countries
Overall goal:
To provide an economy-wide
assessment of plant biotechnology
development in China
Outline of presentation
• Overview of China’s plant biotechnology research investment
• Bt cotton and GM rice: farm level impacts
• Bt cotton and GM rice: economy-wide impacts
• Concluding remarks
Agricultural plant biotechnology research expenditure in China, 1986-2003 （ million yuan in 2003 price ）
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Based on CCAP’s survey, 2003
Plant biotechnology researchers, 1986-2003
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
1986 1990 1995 2000 2003
Sci enti sts Total
Available GM plants in the public sector in China
• More than 20 GM plants have been approved for environmental release and/or field trials
• Four GM plants have been commercialized since 1997: cotton, tomato, sweet pepper and pertunia
Non-Bt cotton Bt cotton
Source: CAAS
抗虫转基因棉花获大面积推广抗虫转基因棉花获大面积推广
来源： 中国农科院
Bt cotton areas in China, 1996-2003 (thousand hectares)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
中国 More than 5 million farmers adopted Bt cotton in 2003
Case study: Bt vs Non-Bt Samples’ locations (1999-2001)
1999-2001:Samples – 1056 hhs
Hebei: 99- 2001
Jinagsu: 2001
Anhui: 2001
Shangdong:99-200
Henan:2000-2001
Case Study: Bt vs Non-Bt Cotton Inputs levels:
No significant different in:Fertilizer useIrrigationMachineryHarvest cost
Significantly different inPesticide useLabor useSeed price
Numbers of pesticide applications in Bt and non-Bt cotton in Hebei and Shandong in 1999
-- reduced by 13 applications
02468
101214161820
Bt Non-Bt
In 2000: by 12 applications In 2001: by 14 applications
3.23.4
1.9
2.93.1
3.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
(ton
/ha)
1999 2000 2001
Non-Bt Bt
Cotton yield (ton/ha): Bt vs non-Bt cotton
MethodologiesYield Model
(1) Y = f (X) G(Z), Y : yieldX: conventional inputs, farm-specific factors and others G(Z): a damage abatement functionZ: the pesticides and Bt cotton variety
(2) Y = a in Xi
ki [ 1 - exp(- c Z)],
(3) a = a0 + a1 Bt
(4) c = c0 + c1 Bt
Pesticide Use Model• Pesticide use= f (Yield loss, Price, Farm size, Age, Education,
Village leader dummy, Training dummy, Seed dummies, Bt cotton dummy, others)
Major findings on Bt cotton impacts
in 1999-2001 (per hectare)
• Reduce pesticide use: 34 kg 923 yuan
• Increase yield: 9.6% 930 yuan
• Increase seed cost: 570 yuan
• Reduce labor input: 41days 574 yuan
• Increase net income: 1283-1857 yuan (US$
155-225)A net increase of about 30% … this is a HUGE increase in productivity!
Percentage (%) of poisonings reported as numbers of farmers interviewed in Hebei and Shandong in 1999
0
5
10
15
20
25
But Bt cotton is more than productivity-enhancing …
Percentage (%) of poisonings reported as numbers of farmers interviewed in Henan in 2000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
GM rice: Pre-production(2001-2003)
123 households, 512 plots
Hubei: 2001-2003
Fujian: 2002-2003
Bt rice: environmental release in 2002
2002 年 5 月 8 日播种， 6 月 1 日插秧，抗虫转基因水稻恢复系株系及其配制的杂交稻组合各18 个；恢复系及杂交稻组合的对照分别为明恢86 及Ⅱ优明 86 ；转基因材料与对照在横竖二个方向间隔种植如国际象棋棋盘，每个方块为正方形，边长为 3m 。
Source: Zhu Zhen
Bt rice
Non-Bt rice
5.609
6.9756.282
8.25
6.226
7.621
6.6347.033
5.8815.863
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
(ton
/ha)
2002 Fuj i an 2003 Fuj i an 2001 Hubei 2002 Hubei 2003 Hubei
Non-GM rice GM rice
Yields of GM and non-GM rice ： (ton/ha)
30
5.6
38.5
8.2
15.3
1.7
19.4
3.2
19.7
3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
(kg/
ha)
2002 Fujian 2003 Fujian 2001 Hubei 2002 Hubei 2003 Hubei
Non-GM rice GM rice
Pesticide uses (kg/ha) ： GM and non-GM
rice
Of those farmers that used GM rice, 62% used ZERO pesticides
Major findings on GM rice impacts (per hectare)
• Reduce pesticide use: 16.9 kg 270 yuan
• Increase yield: 4-8 % 406 yuan
• Increase seed cost: ?? yuan
• Reduce labor input: 8.4 days 168 yuan
• Increase net income: 676-844 yuan (US$
82-102)
Percentage (%) of poisonings reported as numbers of farmers interviewed in Fujian and Hubei in 2002-2003
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2002 2003
An economy-wide impacts
– Price
– Supply and demand
– Trade
– Economy welfare
Scenarios
– A = [not shown]
– B = Commercialise Bt Cotton +
Commercialise GM rice + trade
patterns not affected by GM
adoption
– C = B + Trade ban on GM rice by Japan, Korea, SE Asia, and EU.
Scenario B: Bt cotton + GM riceImpacts on Welfare (EV, million US$) in 2010
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Bt cotton GM rice Total
Comparing scenarios B and C Rice net export changes (million US$, relative to baseline)
020406080
100120140160180200
B: GM cotton & Rice C: ban
But share of export is only about 1% of production
Comparing Scenarios A, B, and C
Impacts on Welfare (EV, million US$) in 2001
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Bt cotton Bt cotton + GM rice Trade ban
Concluding remarks• China has gained significantly from
commercialising Bt cotton through its direct impact on cotton sector and indirect impact on textile industry
• China could even gain much more from commercialising GM food crops (i.e. GM rice)
• Most of the gains from Chinese biotech are realised independently from foreign trade
Concluding remarks• Should China continue to promote biotech and
commercialize its GM food? – Yes.
The average forgone income of postponing GM rice would be about US$ 2.5 billion per year in 2002-05
• How much benefit China can gain from agricultural biotech development? – US$ 5 billion in 2010
(1 from bt cotton and 4 from GM rice)
• How important are trade restrictions on GM products by other countries?
– Minor. Policy makers should put less weight on the international dimension in making their decisions