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CapeCodCapeHatterasNJMACTVADENYNCRIMDPAMid- AtlanticRegional Association Coastal Ocean Observing System1000 km Cape to Cape RAISING THE BAR IN THE MID-ATLANTIC:Moving MARACOOS Observations to Next Generation Forecasting and Product DevelopmentGerhard Kuska, Carolyn Thoroughgood, Scott Glenn, Michael Crowley, Peter MooreDC1 MID-ATLANTIC REGIONAL DRIVERS

Ocean Circulation

Tropical Storms

PopulationPortsNortheastersClimate ChangeCritical Habitat2Mid-Atlantic Regional Association Coastal Ocean Observing SystemMerged 2011: 35 Co-PIs, 25 Institutions, 10 States (&DC), 111 Congr.districts

Sustained regional observing networks aSocietal priorities drive developmentMARACOOS supports the R&D continuum throughout the regionMARACOOS MISSION: To seek, discover, share, and apply new knowledge & understanding of our coastal ocean3MARACOOS REGIONAL THEMES & SUCCESS STORIES

2) Ecosystem Decision Support - Fisheries

4) Coastal Inundation - Flooding

5) Energy Offshore Wind

1) Maritime Operations Safety at Sea3) Water Quality a) Floatables, b) Hypoxia, c) Nutrients4

RegionalPriority ThemesRegional Observation & Modeling CapabilitiesWeather MesonetHF Radar NetworkStatistical STPSSatellite ImageryGlider SurveysDynamical Ocean ForecastsTheme 1. Maritime SafetyOperational Input to USCG SAROPSOperational input to USCG SAROPSOperational input to USCG SAROPSSST for survivability planningAssimilation dataset for forecast modelsSurface currents for SAROPSTheme 2. Ecological Decision SupportWeather forecast ensemble validationCirculation and divergence maps for habitatSST & Color for habitatSubsurface T & S for habitat3-D fields of T, S, circulation for habitatTheme 3. Water QualityWinds for transport, river plumes, & upwellingSurface currents for flotables, bacteria, spill responseSurface currents for flotables, bacteria, spill responseOcean color for river plumesNearshore dissolved oxygen surveysSurface currents for floatables, bacteria, spill responseTheme 4. Coastal InundationWeather forecast ensemble validationCurrent forecast model validationSSTs assimilation into forecast modelsAssimilation dataset for forecast modelsNested forecast ensemblesTheme 5. Offshore EnergyHistorical analysis & wind model validationHistorical current analysis & wind model validationHistorical analysis surface fronts & plumes for sitingHistorical analysis of subsurface fronts & plumesCoupled ocean-atmosphere models for resource estimatesLeveraging Data & Products 5

Maritime Safety: U.S. Coast Guard Search and Rescue example

Mid-Atlantic Operational Data Flow to SAROPSSAROPS 96-Hour Search Area: HYCOM = 36,000 km2SAROPS 96-Hour Search Area: HF Radar = 12,000 km2

SAROPS User Interface6

Ecological Decision Support Fisheries

Our Approach: Develop statistical models using bottom trawl surveys and MARACOOS 3-D data to predict species distribution based on observed or forecasted MARACOOS 3-D fields.

+Downwelling UpwellingDownwelling UpwellingLike UpwellingHate Downwelling

7Water Quality

Data and Modeling to respond to 120+ million gallons of sewage released into the Hudson River following North River Wastewater Treatment Plant fire in NYC, July 20118

From ForecastTo ImpactMATURING TECHNOLOGY Regional scale atmospheric wind forecast modelVery high-resolution hydrodynamic models with land flooding Very high-resolution land elevation data (LIDAR) Emerging GIS and visualization capabilities for integrated, high-resolution pictures and productsBridging the GapChesapeake Inundation Prediction System (CIPS) Partners Coastal Inundation

9Offshore Wind Energy High Resolution Atmospheric Forecast validated with HF radar

Spatial validation of Atmospheric Model with 13 MHz Multi-static HF Radar Array

2-Site Mono-static CoverageAdditional Radar SitesBi-static Geometries2-Site Multi-static CoverageHigh Resolution Wind Resource670 m horizontal resolution

10Some successes, butBig challenges lie ahead:

Growing needs of the stakeholdersExpectation to continue to build out the system (10-year BOP)Fiscal future? (in & out of government)Pressure to demonstrate value

11Are we able to successfully execute R2O?1. ResearchOperations/Application

2. Research ?Operations/Application

3. ResearchOperations/Application

12Product Development Infrastructure NeededUser/Stakeholder InfrastructureUser CouncilProduct Groups

Stakeholder Liaison Service (Geographic and Theme-focused, and leveraged through partnerships)

Enhanced Cross-Regional focus Regionally and through NFRA User CouncilEDS: FishWindEnergyMarine SafetyInund-ationWater Quality

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THANK YOU

www.maracoos.org www.usnfra.org

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