Capacity-building in Africa

Operational Mesoscale

Weather Prediction

Most of Africa’s disasters are meteorological in origin

• Improved weather-forecasting infrastructure is needed for

- agriculture – rainfall predictions, locusts

- public health – dust-storm predictions, malaria

- public safety – floods, aviation weather

Two-phase plan to address this need

• Phase – I - Establish operational mesoscale forecasting system at

NCAR (using modest computer), and provide products to African weather services. Focus first on West Africa.

- Improve model (forecast quality) and graphical interface based on feedback from African forecasters.

- Conduct a workshop for forecasters, in Accra, on the effective use of high-resolution meteorological-model products.

- Quick funding is currently being sought for this effort.

Two-phase plan to address this need (cont.)

• Phase – II- Address needs of all of Africa (not only West Africa) for

improved meteorological services.- Expand area coverage of model high-resolution weather

products using larger computer.- Expand educational component – Work with African

universities and meteorological services to improve knowledge of numerical weather prediction and mesoscale meteorology.

- Develop partnerships with African stakeholders (agriculture, water, etc.) to adapt weather products to special needs – e.g., coupled weather/agricultural models, dust-storm models, etc.

- Funding will be sought through the Millennium Challenge Corporation

Early Partners

• University of Ghana – Legon (through Ben Lamptey – NCAR post doc)

• Ghana Meteorological Agency (through Ben Lamptey – NCAR post doc)

• Private sector (ZedX Inc., coupling weather models with ag models, etc.)

Planned forecast-model grids for Phase-I system (D2 – 13.5 km grid increment)

D1

D2

D1

D2

Example of prototype forecasts provided over the web to African forecasters for two months earlier this year – when computing power

was temporarily available