godae final symposium, 12 – 15 november 2008, nice, france applications of satellite-derived ocean...
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GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France
Applications of satellite-derived ocean measurements to tropical cyclone
intensification forecastingGustavo Jorge Goni
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,
Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory,
Miami, Florida, USA
Mark DeMaria, NOAA, USA.John Knaff, NOAA, USA.Charles Sampson, NRL, USA.Isaac Ginis, Univ. Rhode Island, USA.Francis Bringas, Univ. of Miami / CIMAS, USA.Alberto Mavume, Univ. of Cape Town, South Africa.Chris Lauer, NOAA, USA.I-I Lin, National Taiwan University, Taiwan.M. M. Ali, National Remote Sensing Center, India.Paul Sandery, Center for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Australia.Silvana Ramos-Buarque, Mercator Ocean, France.KiRyong Kang, National Typhoon Center, South Korea.Avichal Mehra, NOAA, USA.Eric Chassignet, Florida State University/COAPS, USA.George Halliwell, University of Miami, USA.
GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France
Global tropical cyclone genesis
NE Pac
Atlantic
SW Indian
NW Pac
SW PacSE Indian
N Indian
1990-2005
GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France
Error reduction in track and intensity forecast (North Atlantic)
1970-2005 = 50% reduction 72h lead time 1990-2005 = 15% reduction 72h lead time = 0% reduction 24h lead time
TC track prediction Intensity prediction
GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France
The oceans and TC intensification
1972: Leipper and Volgenau2000: Shay et al
Gulf of Mexico: Opal (95), Bret (99), Ivan (04), Wilma, Rita, and Katrina (05)
Caribbean Sea: Mitch (98)
NW Pacific: Imbudo (03), Maemi (03)
Mozambique Channel: Eline (00), Hudah (00), Japhet (03)
Hurricane force winds> 64 kts
26oC
Adapted from DeMaria and Kaplan
GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France
Tropical Cyclone IntensificationHurricane Katrina
GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France
Altimetry-derived isotherm depths
GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France
Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP)
Global validation for May 30, 2007
Rms dif = 15 kJ/cm2www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone
GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France
TC : ocean models and efforts
basin agency effort mode
Atlantic NOAA/NWS SHIPS (statistical) operational/research
NOAA/GFDL HYCOM + HWRF research
NOAA/NCEP HYCOM + HWRF Operational in 2009
U Miami and NOAA HYCOM + HWRF research
NOAA Ocean TCHP To operational/analysis
Mercator Global upper ocean forecast
operational
NW Pac Nat. Taiwan Univ. Ocean TCHP Research/analysis
NE Pac US Navy and NOAA STIPS (statistical) operational
N Indian Nat. Remote Sensing Center
Upper ocean monitoring
research/analysis
SW Pac
SW Indian
BOM CLAM/blue Link Operational Ocean
TCLAPS Research/analysis
SE Indian UCP and NOAA TCHP research/analysis
GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France
TC and ocean models and efforts
2003-2006 Atlantic Forecast Skill
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
Forecast Interval (hr)
Pe
rce
nt
Imp
rov
em
en
t o
ve
r C
LIP
ER
or
SH
IFO
R
SHIPS
GFDL
GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France
Error reduction in Intensity forecast North Atlantic and Northeast Pacific
GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
Forecast Interval (hr)
Pe
rce
nt
Imp
rov
em
en
t
All Cases
Isabel 2003
Ivan 2004
Emily 2005
Katrina 2005
Rita 2005
Wilma 2005
Katrina, Rita 5%Wilma 13%
Ivan 20%
Improvements in Operational SHIPS Forecasts from OHC for Recent Cat 5 Hurricanes
Mainelli et al, 2008
GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France
NOAA/NCEP intensity predictionRita (2005)
Observed
w/o NHC OHC Assimilation
With NHC OHC Assimilation
GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France
HYCOM - Hurricane Ivan (2004)
GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France
GOM: Interannual variability
GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France
Pacific Ocean
GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France
Mozambique Channel
Goni et al, 2008
GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France
North Indian Ocean
May 2003
GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France
UPPER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT MONITORING & FORECASTING
► Routine analysis and forecasting of heat content measures in Australian region based on BLUElink OceanMAPS
SHOHC50mOHC200mSSTATCHPD26C……..
http://godae.bom.gov.au/oceanmaps_analysis/ocean_hc/ocean_hc.shtml
http://godae.bom.gov.au/oceanmaps_analysis/ocean_hcf/ocean_hcf.shtml
Applications in the Australian region
GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France
► Regional version of BLUElink ocean model coupled to Bureau of Meteorology TC Prediction Model TCLAPS
► Designed to investigate impact of coupling on ocean and weather prediction skill.
► Main application is directed towards improving tropical cyclone intensity forecasts.
COUPLED LIMITED AREA MODELLING AND PREDICTION SYSTEM
Applications in the Australian region
GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France
Cat 1 : Pa 980 hPaCat 2 : 979 Pa 965 hPaCat 3 : 964 Pa 945 hPaCat 4 : 944 Pa 920 hPaCat 5 : Pa 920 hPa
TC RAMMASUN
8-13 May, 2008
Averaged Temperature in the Oceanic Mixed Layer
GLOBAL MODELS: MERCATORTC RAMMASUN
Mixed Layer Temp
GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France
PSY3V1 Global (regular grid 1/2°)
POSTER: Investigation on an oceanic index for monitoring Tropical Cyclones
Days correlated
ITCHC over the inner circle of the TC (>100days)
J:J 22.49
J:J-1 42.67
GLOBAL MODELS: MERCATORGulf of Mexico
Cat 1 : Pa 980 hPaCat 2 : 979 Pa 965 hPaCat 3 : 964 Pa 945 hPaCat 4 : 944 Pa 920 hPaCat 5 : Pa 920 hPa
GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France
1 or 3 altimeters ?
(left) TCHP field during Katrina obtained using data from JASON-1, GFO and Envisat. (right) TCHP field during Katrina obtained using data from JASON-1 only.
GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France
(left) 1993-2005 average degradation in the field of TCHP after two altimeters (ERS2 and GFO) are removed.
1 or 3 altimeters ?
GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France
Work Ahead
• Research to Operations
• Analysis of key issues: TC translation speed, inner core - ocean interactions, positive-negative feedback.
• Improve models performance.
• Ocean observing system.
• Continue to have the international community involved in this type of studies.
• Only possible if real-time sea height fields able to resolve mesoscale from altimetry are available