Can the FIFA World Cup redefine a Country or a Continent?

This report summarises the findings of opinion research conducted by YouGovStone on behalf of SABMiller, looking into attitudes towards this summer’s FIFA World Cup in South Africa and at the country itself. Two online surveys were conducted; one before the tournament began and the other afterwards. Both surveys were completed by members of YouGovStone’s network of influential people, with 769 completing in May 2010 and 948 completing in August 2010. This document covers the results of the surveys and includes verbatim comments from respondents alongside the percentage answers. The idea of this research was to provide an investigation into what opinion leaders in the UK believe a major sporting event such as the FIFA World Cup can contribute to a host country, and specifically to this year’s host South Africa and the broader African continent. The opinion leaders who completed the survey were drawn from the YouGovStone ‘ThinkTank’ network of almost 4,000 influential people, who are leaders in their field (the majority of whom are based in the UK) and come from the worlds of politics, business, media, the third sector, health, education, culture and beyond.

Executive Summary For four weeks in June and July this year the eyes of the sporting world turned to South Africa as it hosted the 2010 FIFA World Cup. This festival of football came to Africa for the first time with an enthusiastic welcome from the ‘rainbow nation’ who had their vuvuzelas at the ready. It was Spain who ran out winners on the field but would South Africa be a winner off the field? Before the tournament began there were many questions in the media following security problems at last year’s African Cup of Nations, and amongst other things a late cash injection by FIFA to ensure World Cup facilities were completed on time. YouGovStone conducted research surveys for SABMiller before and after the event, with its panel of influential people mostly based in the UK, to gauge attitudes and to see how these changed as a result of the tournament. There has been much talk about the power of sporting events to put a country or host city on the map and so it is highly encouraging for the hosts to find that three quarters (72%) of this survey’s respondents say ‘that the World Cup has helped redefine South Africa by improving people’s perceptions about it’. This improved perception is taken through into other areas with many respondents saying they now feel more positive about South Africa as somewhere that can host international events, as well as somewhere to do business, to invest, hold conferences and to visit. 72% of the sample after the tournament also felt that a positive lasting legacy had been established for South Africa. 41% said their view of South Africa was changed for the better as a direct result of the event, only 1% said it their view had got worse. More respondents felt the tournament had been a success than were expecting it to be and many were surprised about how smoothly it ran with few negative headlines about crime or logistical problems, which they had previously feared. The one area of concern though amongst almost half those questioned was whether the average citizen has benefitted. Also this was supposed to be Africa’s World Cup but the idea of a wider benefit across the continent is not seen by this sample – only 19% think any legacy will reach beyond South Africa, up from 15% before the tournament began. South Africa is a country whose spontaneous image amongst this particular group is dominated by memories of apartheid and Nelson Mandela, but it is recognised as a country of great extremes – real beauty alongside fears about crime. But encouragingly, 44% of those who took part in the research before the World Cup, and who have decision making control over their employer’s international investment budget, see a modern South Africa with attractive business opportunities however corruption, crime and infrastructure remain a concern to many. Though it seems the World Cup may just have helped lay some of those concerns to rest. Before the event, survey respondents wished South Africa the best of luck on and off the field but they were concerned about security problems and crime. Those concerns weren’t realised and the general view amongst this sample is that the World Cup has helped the country and could indeed provide it with a positive lasting legacy.

MAIN REPORT Hosting the FIFA World Cup A Positive Effect for South Africa The opportunity to host a global sporting event is something that many nations and cities crave. Such an event is viewed by many as being a game-changer that has the potential to fix the host’s place on the world map, to bring economic riches in the short and long term, or even simply spread a little happiness thanks to sporting success and excitement. 72% of those asked after the event agreed that ‘the World Cup has helped redefine South Africa by improving people's perceptions about it’, with 19% saying definitely and 53% probably. 41% of the survey respondents say that their view of South Africa has changed for the better as a direct result of the event. This seems like a good endorsement from such opinion leaders. However there is often contradictory evidence about what kind of legacy can actually be achieved from sporting events like this. This mixed view is borne out in this research survey which finds that only 27% of the sample definitely believes that hosting a major world sporting event can provide a positive lasting legacy for a city or country. A further 43% think this statement is probably true while 28% think it is wrong. However as mentioned earlier, after the event 72% believed a positive legacy has been established for South Africa.

7%

65%

20%

2%

0%

6%

Very positive

Positive

No legacy at all

Negative

Very negative

Don't know

Do you believe the World Cup has established a positive

or negative legacy for South Africa, or no legacy at all?

54% of respondents asked before the event expected it to ‘bring great benefits’ to South Africa. A third (33%) did not expect South Africa to benefit at all while just 4% saw the event as having a negative effect.

54%

33%

4%

8%

18%

65%

4%

12%

Bring great benefits

Bring no great benefits at all

Have a negative effect

Don’t know

South Africa

African continent

Level of benefit expecting this summer's FIFA World

Cup to bring to South Africa and the African continent

One of the messages put forward by the hosts for this summer’s event has been that the broader African continent will also benefit. Very few of those in this sample before the tournament thought that would actually be the case with just 18% thinking great benefits would come to Africa as a whole, while 65% saw no real benefit and 4% thought there might even be a negative effect. 12% didn’t know. Afterwards, 19% could see a positive lasting legacy for Africa. “Whilst there will undoubtedly be some problems, these will be offset by the increase in profile and reputation of South Africa as a result of the coverage. It will boost its reputation as both a tourist and business destination.” “I've just returned from a visit to South Africa. Found a very positive and exciting attitude to the World Cup. The stadium in Capetown looks great. The preparations in Jo'burg were tremendous” “This will be a frothy exercise. It will help SA on the world stage but the ordinary population will not benefit that much.” Previous Legacies The pre-tournament survey asked participants which of the major sporting events of the past three decades have actually managed to deliver a positive legacy in their opinion. This question covered events with one-off hosts such as football and rugby World Cups, Commonwealth Games, Olympic Games buy also have individuals the opportunity to write in examples of other events they may be familiar with which they believe have established successful legacies. The Sydney 2000 Olympics was perceived by the highest number of opinion leaders to have provided a positive legacy with 50% choosing it. The Barcelona Olympics of 1992 came second on this list with 43% picking it, and the Beijing Olympics narrowly behind in third at 42%. The South Africa Rugby World Cup of 1995 came fourth,

chosen by 37%, while the Manchester Commonwealth Games was selected by 27%. Very few people picked any of the FIFA World Cups with France 1998 coming top with 15% believing it had a positive legacy, the same proportion as the Athens Olympics. Other events mentioned included repeat events such as Wimbledon, the London Marathon, and F1 Grand Prix in cities such as Singapore and Dubai, while several mentions were made of the Tokyo Olympics of 1964. The research does though show that on balance respondents generally believe that hosting major sporting events can provide the ‘ability to redefine a country and change perceptions about it’. 62% agree with this (19% definitely agree, 43% tend to agree) while 35% disagree (28% say probably not and 7% definitely not). And as we saw earlier 72% believe South Africa has either probably or definitely achieved this because of the World Cup.

27%

28%

19%

43%

39%

43%

Hosting a major world sporting event can provide a positive lasting legacy

for a city or country

Sport has the power to bring people together and unify a country over the

long-term

Major sporting events have the ability to redefine a country and change

perceptions about it

Definitely

Probably

Agreement with statements about the power of hosting

major sporting events on a country or city

“Rugby was very effective in moving South Africa forward (as in the recent film Invictus); so maybe football will have a similar effect. It also binds people together regardless of colour.” Preconceptions and attitudes to South Africa In order to understand how those who completed the survey think South Africa might benefit, it was important to understand their existing attitudes towards the country. Questions were asked about business opportunities, race relations, the workforce, and the infrastructure amongst other things. 35% believe ‘there are many attractive business opportunities in South Africa’ and this rises to 44% amongst respondents who have decision making responsibility for international investment within their organisation. It also rises to 46% amongst those respondents who have been to South Africa in the past 10 years. Only 19% of people disagree that there are attractive business opportunities with 31% neither agreeing nor disagreeing and 15% don’t know.

40%

37%

35%

33%

29%

11%

7%

5%

15%

35%

19%

24%

37%

69%

79%

79%

South Africa provides access to attractive markets

Race relations are greatly improved

There are many attractive business opportunities

It has a skilled workforce

The situation for the average South African is improving

Public infrastructure is comparable to European nations

Corruption is not a problem

Security situation is under control

Agree

Disagree

Extent of agreement and disagreement with each

statement about South Africa

The pre-event research shows that 40% agree that South Africa ‘provides access to attractive markets’ again rising to 52% for those who make international investment decisions. However agreement is not without qualification – individuals agree but they do not agree strongly. Also when it comes to the workforce, just 33% say it is skilled. After the tournament we saw that 26% said they felt ‘more positive’ about South Africa as a place to do business, while only 1% said ‘less positive’. 16% said they felt ‘more positive’ about it as a somewhere to invest while 3% said ‘less positive’.

61%

42%

39%

26%

16%

8%

33%

51%

51%

65%

67%

77%

2%

4%

3%

1%

3%

6%

...a place to hold global events of all kinds

...somewhere to visit as a tourist

...a place to attend or hold a conference

...a place to do business

...somewhere to invest in

...somewhere to live a work

More Positive No Change Less Positive2

Compared to before the World Cup, do you feel more or

less positive about South Africa as…

This WordleTM cloud below shows what is top of the pre-event respondents’ minds when we asked them to write down what first comes into their head when they think about South Africa. The dominance of Mandela and apartheid stands out, but then we see some strong positives and negatives. To read this word cloud, the size of the word denotes the number of mentions but the positions and colours of the words are not relevant:

http://www.wordle.net

Two issues of major concern from the per-event survey are that 79% believe corruption is a problem and 79% believe that the security situation is not under control. 69% say that public infrastructure doesn’t match that of European nations, and only 37% think race relations are greatly improved. Just 29% believe the situation for the average South African is improving and this is no higher amongst those that know the country better and have visited in the last 10 years. However the post-tournament research shows that generally people’s views did improve as a direct result of hosting the World Cup. 30% of the pre-event sample felt that South Africa is a very or fairly attractive place to invest, while 59% say it is fairly or very unattractive, and 11% don’t know. This does improve amongst those with international investment responsibility where the score for very or fairly attractive rises to 42% (6% very, 36% fairly) and it rises to 43% amongst those who have been to South Africa in the past 10 years. Respondents were also asked in the pre-event stage to write down what brands, companies and even politicians come to mind when they think about South Africa. They were asked to exclude Nelson Mandela, President Jacob Zuma, ex-President Thabo Mbeki and Archbishop Desmond Tutu as these are all given. De Beers, the ANC, wine, Springboks, South African Airways, Anglo American, Barclays and SABMiller make up the top six. This WordleTM cloud shows the results, again the size of the word denotes the number of individual mentions but the position and colour of the words is not relevant:

http://www.wordle.net

“It is a nation now full of energy and young people who're bursting to create a successful country in contrast to the desperation and hopelessness of the apartheid years.” “South Africa is a young country, struggling to establish itself as a democracy and not succeeding. It is a long way from being an environment in which investments can be anything except a gamble.” The South African FIFA World Cup Perhaps rather disappointingly only 29% of this sample actually believed this summer’s FIFA World Cup would ‘be a great success’ and this was no higher amongst those that know the country better. However after the event 44% thought it was a great success. This wasn’t as a result of people believing South Africa isn’t ready to host an event of this stature – only 18% before the event thought it wasn’t ready and afterwards 46% thought South Africa was ready to ‘host other major sporting events of this type’. Before it started there were a number of areas of concern about the tournament that people had; 58% believed that it would suffer from security problems, 57% were worried there would be logistical and transport problems, and 59% didn’t think the average South African would benefit from having it in their backyard – indeed 32% believed many poorer South Africans would experience negative effects as a direct result of the tournament. In reality things were better than feared with those completing the research after the tournament saying they had expected more security problems than there were (51%), 34% expected more logistical/transport problems, and only 9% agree ‘there were many negative issues associated with South Africa hosting the World Cup’. However 46% still thought the average South African had not benefitted.

29%

15%

23%

58%

57%

59%

44%

19%

46%

9%

51%

34%

46%

It will be/was a great success

It will have a positive lasting legacy for Africa

South Africa is ready to host other major sporting events of this type

There are/were many negative issues associated with South Africa hosting the

World Cup

It will suffer from security problems/I expected more security problems

There will be problems with transport and logistics/I expected more transport and

logitical problems

The average South African will not benefit/has not benefitted

Pre-World Cup

Post-World Cup

Views about this summer's FIFA World Cup

One of the hopes for the summer was that the World Cup, and success for Bafana Bafana, could help bring the South African nation together, in a way that arguably the 1995 Rugby World Cup did for the emerging ‘rainbow nation’. Two thirds (67%) of individuals believe that such a coming together is certainly possible through sport. “South Africa is a country with an unmatched enthusiasm for sport” “There will be problems but they will be forced to get their act together. The football will be a great success.” “They will get through it somehow. A few tourists will be mugged, raped or even killed but that is all par for the course in South Africa and could happen anywhere in a less developed nation being visited by hundreds of thousands of tourists.” South Africa’s FIFA World Cup legacy Almost half (47%) of the respondents who took part in the research before the tournament began thought there will be a positive long-term legacy for South Africa from this summer’s event and after the event this score went up to 72%, with 65% saying a ‘positive’ legacy and 7% saying a ‘very positive’ legacy. Some of the direct questions show how this legacy may manifest itself. 61% of our respondents said that they now had a more positive view of South Africa as ‘a place to hold global events of all kinds’, only 2% were less positive. 39% were more positive about SA as ‘a place to attend or hold a conference’ (3% less positive), and 42% were more positive about it as ‘somewhere to visit as a tourist’ (4% less

positive). 26% were more positive about SA as somewhere to do business, just 1% was less positive. Before the event the question was posed to all respondents asking what a positive legacy should actually look like and then whether they thought each element was achievable. Top of the list of items that a positive legacy should include was ‘the regeneration of specific urban areas’ chosen by 70%, then ‘improved access to sport for children of all backgrounds’ selected by 66%, and thirdly with 53% was ‘long term increase in attractiveness to tourists’. Just behind the top three, also chosen by over half the respondents, was ‘improved perception amongst world’s major corporations as a positive place to do business’ with 52%, and ‘improved opportunities for children of all backgrounds to progress to becoming elite sportspeople’ also with 52%. 46% thought that the World Cup should be used as ‘a platform for raising awareness about major social issues’ while 45% thought a legacy should include ‘improved race relations’. A third (36%) said ‘positioning Africa as an open and developing continent’.

52%

66%

38%

52%

46%

40%

70%

53%

36%

45%

38%

46%

36%

33%

35%

20%

57%

44%

24%

22%

Improved perception amongst world’s major corporations as a positive place to do business

Improved access to sport for children of all backgrounds

Improved sporting facilities for elite sportspeople

Improved opportunities for children of all backgrounds to progress to becoming elite …

Platform for raising awareness about major social issues

Tangible movement towards South Africa’s own poverty reduction goals

Regeneration of specific urban areas

Long term increase in attractiveness to tourists

Positioning Africa as an open and developing continent

Improved race relations

Potential

Actual

Legacy for South Africa: what it should look like

(potential) vs what is thought to be achievable (actual)

The likelihood of these positive legacies actually occurring is much lower in the view of these respondents. 57% see ‘the regeneration of specific urban areas’ as being likely (vs 70% who think it should happen), while just 46% think ‘improved access to sport for children of all backgrounds’ will happen (vs 66%), and 44% can see a ‘long term increase in attractiveness to tourists’. At the bottom of the list, 20% believe ‘tangible movement towards South Africa’s own poverty goals’ will happen, 22% expect ‘improved race relations’, and 24% think ‘positioning Africa as an open and developing continent’ will occur. Those who took part in the survey who have actually been to South Africa in the past ten years (35%) were more likely to think each of the legacy points were achievable than those who have never visited. “Whatever investments had been made in upgrading bricks and mortar should be amortised by institutionalising football and related training disciplines in every school in the country.”

“They've done a lot towards setting the FIFA World Cup up as a platform for a positive legacy to be achieved. What they need to do now is to show the same determination to root out corruption at senior government levels and to curb crime, both of which are endemic to South African society.” “Countries tend to stop working at promotion immediately after these mega events - it is important that they do not. It is harder after the event but not impossible to continue marketing and promoting around the event and its positive results.” “The legacy the World Cup has already provided to the host nation is vastly improved infrastructure and large-scale building projects which would never have been tackled so soon without the World Cup deadline. Many of the other issues (eg: crime, security, corruption, discrimination) are only being temporarily dealt with - just a sticking plaster over a weeping wound.” Benefits to the African Continent As we saw earlier, almost half the sample expects a positive long-term legacy for South Africa from the FIFA World Cup but this legacy is not expected to extend to Africa in general. Only 19% think that a legacy will reach to the wider African continent despite the hope that staging such an event will help people reconsider Africa. Indeed, in a letter from then South African President Thabo Mbeki to FIFA President Sepp Blatter, he stated “We want to ensure that one day, historians will reflect upon the 2010 World Cup as a moment when Africa stood tall and resolutely turned the tide on centuries of poverty and conflict. We want to show that Africa’s time has come”. When asked their views on various statements about the impact of the World Cup on the rest of the continent the survey respondents were often split on their views. 37% agree with Thabo Mbeki’s comments from the original bid document that “the successful hosting of the FIFA World Cup in Africa will provide a powerful, irresistible momentum to [the] African renaissance”. However 45% disagreed while 17% didn’t know. There was marginally greater support for Mbeki’s comment that “the tournament will bring new pride, as well as economic growth, to all of Africa” with 41% agreeing, 44% disagreeing and 14% not knowing.

37%

41%

52%

71%

69%

32%

45%

44%

39%

20%

21%

27%

The successful hosting of the FIFA World Cup in Africa will provide a powerful, irresistible momentum to (the) African renaissance.

The tournament will bring new pride, as well as economic growth, to all of Africa

South Africa will be seen as a representative of Africa

South Africa is part of the African family of nations

Other African countries will only benefit through fringe benefits such as increased tourism at the

time of the World Cup

The FIFA World Cup is having negative consequences for many poorer urban South

Africans

Agree

Disagree

Extent of agreement and disagreement with each

statement about the World Cup and South Africa

Over half (52%) do though believe that South Africa will be seen “as a representative of Africa”, while 39% disagree and 9% don’t know. This is supported by the idea that South Africa is “part of an African family of nations” which 71% agree with and just 20% disagree. We can therefore see how the success or otherwise of the tournament might lead respondents to expect it to have some impact beyond South Africa itself but despite this 69% of this sample believe ‘other African countries will only benefit through fringe benefits such as increased tourism at the time of the World Cup’. So for all the positive words about a legacy across Africa the rhetoric is not truly believed by this group. “If the World Cup is not brilliantly well organised it will have a negative effect on the whole of Africa.” “It's about time an African nation had the chance and I'm sure they will move heaven and earth to make it a success.” “It will be good for the image of Africa as a whole largely by emphasizing the footballing prowess of Africa.” Millennium Development Goals The UN’s Millennium Development Goals were set in 2000 with an understanding they would run for 15 years and be focused on issues including halving extreme poverty, halting HIV/AIDS spread and providing universal primary education. Africa has obviously been a focus for much of the work to achieve the Goals and it was hoped by many that the World Cup might help spotlight the Goals again. The view from the pre-event research study was that only 5% believe ‘the World Cup will be a platform that will substantially raise the profile of the Millennium Development Goals’ while a further 30% believed the Goals ‘will get some extra profile thanks to the World Cup but not a substantial boost’. 35% thought there would be ‘little or no extra exposure’ for the Goals while 28% didn’t know.

“The World Cup is in conflict with the Goals” “The MDGs have been all but abandoned by first world economies; they will not be achieved; that, not South Africa's role, is the problem.”

5%

30%

35%

28%

3%

29%

43%

24%

The World Cup will be a platform that will substantially raise the profile of the

Millennium Development Goals

The Millennium Development Goals will get some extra profile thanks to the World Cup

but not a substantial boost

The Millennium Development goals will get little or no extra exposure due to the World

Cup

Don’t know

All respondents

3rd Sector

Millennium Development Goals

On the Field The survey participants were rather split on who they thought might win this summer’s tournament. Brazil came top of the list with 23% choosing them, followed by the eventual winners Spain (15%), a perhaps hopeful 10% picked England, and then came Germany and Argentina with 6% each. 31% didn’t know. While South Africa were chosen by 1% to win the World Cup, half thought they would at least make it through the group stage and into the last 16. London 2012 & England 2018 Almost half (46%) would like to see England awarded the right to host the 2018 FIFA World Cup, with 24% against the idea while 29% don’t mind either way. Meanwhile, when it comes to the Olympic Games in 2012, this sample is absolutely split on the likely success of the Games. Only 42% currently feel they will be a ‘great success’ (though this compares well with just 29% expecting the FIFA World Cup in South Africa to be a ‘great success’), while 28% see the Olympics as a ‘a waste of money’ and 19% think ‘they are nothing but a regeneration project for East London’. Over a third (37%) believe there will be ‘a positive financial effect on London’ but a slightly smaller number (31%) see the opposite and believe the Games will cause ‘a negative financial effect on London’.

44% are expecting ‘a positive sporting legacy across the UK’ as a result of the Olympics and 30% believe that ‘Team GB will have its best ever performance in modern times’.

44%

42%

37%

31%

30%

28%

19%

7%

2%

There will be a positive sporting legacy across the UK

The Games will be a great success

There will be a positive financial effect on London

There will be a negative financial effect on London

Team GB will have its best ever performance in modern times

The Games are a waste of money

They are nothing but a regeneration project for East London

Other

Don’t know

Views about the London 2012 Olympic Games

Survey Methodology The survey was completed by members of the YouGovStone “ThinkTank” – a panel of over 4,000 influential people who take part in regular online surveys. Members of the ThinkTank panel were invited to take part in a study before the World Cup began and 769 completed it successfully. Fieldwork ran from May 1st to May 6th 2010. A second study was then completed by 948 respondents between August 4th and August 11th 2010. The ThinkTank panel represents a cross-section of influential people including politicians, senior business leaders, broadcasters and journalists, charity directors, senior academics, senior health and legal practitioners. The majority are based in the UK. Both surveys focused on attitudes towards South Africa, sporting events in general and the FIFA World Cup in particular, exploring ideas around legacy and success. Most questions included a closed list of possible answers but respondents were also given opportunities to provide ‘open-ended’ feedback, allowing them to expand on their views in their own words. Actual quotes from respondents in the pre-event study are shown throughout this document.

PLEASE NOTE, YOUGOVSTONE IS A PREDECESSOR OF YOUGOV’S REPUTATION DEPARTMENT. YouGov now regularly surveys MPs, business leaders and other groups of high level decision makers in the UK and internationally. If your organisation needs to know what these individuals think, please contact Oliver Rowe, Director of Reputation Research on +44 (0)207 012 6032 or email oliver.rowe@yougov.com