can internet consultation help to end drug violence in mexico?

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Can internet consultation help to end drug violence in Mexico?

James Creechan (Ph.D.), Toronto

In response to mass execution of 15 students, and an ongoing wave of violence that has made Ciudad Jurez one of the most dangerous cities inthe world, President Felipe Caldern promised to introduce a new "pilotprogram" that would tackle the drug trafficking organizations controllingChihuahua and other Mexican States. At this time, the details and logisticsof this pilot program remain vague except for a promise to create a "publicconsultation" that will be managed with internet social network applications such as Facebook. This public consultation will collectobservations and suggestions from everyday people who are on thefrontlines of Mexicos drug war. It appears that President Caldern believesthat he can tap into elements of social networking in the same way thatBarrack Obama mobilized support for an improbable presidentialcampaign 2 years ago. But, President Caldern is unlikely to generatesimilar results, and it is very doubtful that he will mobilize Mexicans insupport of his narco war initiatives to the degree that presidentialcandidate Obamas team accomplished.

Social networking is a new phenomenon, and its recognized strength doesnot lie in producing constructive and positive solutions for complex socialproblems. If social networking has any "political impact", its more likely to be related to how it concentrates levels of vitriol, discontent and angerdirected at representatives of the status quo. Should President Caldernsuccessfully use social networking to introduce positive and constructiveprograms, he will become the first leader to have accomplished this end.Relying on internet social applications to " listen to the Mexican people "can do little more than direct already angry citizens to a centralized forumto vent their anger and to collectively demonstrate a rejection of his failure.Internet consultation will not generate positive measures that will modify Mexico's strategy in dealing with the drug trafficking organizations, nor will it eliminate the bloody levels of violence plaguing Mexico.

Why?

First , there is no evidence that social networking generates a sophisticatedand critical discussion of complex issues. At best, social networkingestablishes an opportunity to reiterate generalized and trite observations ,and most posts are rarely focused or guided by critical thinking andsophisticated analysis. Facebook, Twitter and other social network applications offer little more than an opportunity to post " entry level observations " on the part of individuals who will flock to a site to upload

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personal diatribes and dislikes with varying degrees of literary skill. Thereis nothing sophisticated, nor complex to be gleaned from the cumulativeproduct of thousands of such posts. The comments are not focused andguided by general themes, they will represent a diachronic rather thansystematic viewpoint, and very few critical analyses will be found withinthe collective mass of statements and opinions posted.(See http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/facebook-forums-shouldnt-sway-government-pollsters-told/article1472186/?cmpid=tgc for Michael Valpys description of a survey that indicates how young Canadian Facebook users think internetstatements will affect politicians).

Second , President Caldern's proposal will over-represent a narrow segment of the Mexican (Chihuahua) population directly suffering fromnarco-violence AND with an internet connection. At this time, MexicanFacebook social networking users disproportionately represent theeducated and economically powerful elite. There is little reason to expectthat comments posted to Facebook will represent the working classes of Mexico los fulanos and los plebes who also and disproportionately among the 17,000 casualties and the bloody carnage characterizingMexico's failed drug war during the three years of Felipe Caldernspresidency.

Third , a proposal to engage in an internet consultation will generate citizenobservations relating to only one "indicator" that might be used to evaluatePresident Caldern's drug war. Specifically, social networking cannotrepresent anything more than a feeble attempt " to win back the heartsand minds of a public that has increasingly abandoned Felipe Caldern'svision in droves ". Felipe Calderon and his government have already lostthe support of the Mexican people, and this proposed social networkingconsultation represents a desperate last minute attempt to convince thepublic that he is willing to listen and is willing to change. In the currentclimate, this public internet consultation is more likely to be seen by thepublic as little more than another cynical example of " gatopardismo " aninteresting Spanish language expression describing the idea that thisconsultation will be interpreted as a blatant public relations exerciseintended to construct the " appearance of listening " without actually listening to them. This cynical interpretation will become even more

widespread when it becomes clear that there will be no way tosystematically analyze what Mexicans will tell their government on aFacebook consultation site. Community consultation based on socialnetworking have never been successfully converted into concrete andspecific policy proposals and there is little chance that PresidentCaldern's recent espousal of social networking can fix what is wrong withhis drug war. Using social networking to "tabulate the disparate visions" of

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/facebook-forums-shouldnt-sway-government-pollsters-told/article1472186/?cmpid=tgchttp://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/facebook-forums-shouldnt-sway-government-pollsters-told/article1472186/?cmpid=tgchttp://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/facebook-forums-shouldnt-sway-government-pollsters-told/article1472186/?cmpid=tgchttp://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/facebook-forums-shouldnt-sway-government-pollsters-told/article1472186/?cmpid=tgchttp://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/facebook-forums-shouldnt-sway-government-pollsters-told/article1472186/?cmpid=tgc


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how to fight a drug war will not lead to new ideas, nor will it generate theactual policies and programs that are necessary to change the direction of afailed drug policy.

Facebook is" an improbable social policy tool " to use in this context, andthis idea can be evaluated using any number of social measures of success.For example, its possible to consider how social networking can addressthe 4 criteria for waging successful war campaigns " described in thefinal pages of Rubn Aguilar and Jorge Castaeda's recent essay " El Narco : La Guerra Fallida " (El narco : la guerra fallida . Mxico , D.F.,Punto de Lectura. ( http://www.puntodelectura.com.mx ). These 2distinguished authors have written an articulate and detailed criticism of Felipe Caldern's war, and they conclude their analysis by outlining how President Caldern failed to consider the " Powell Doctrine " that is, four necessary requirements for waging a successful war that were outlined by General Colin Powell prior to the first American invasion of Iraq. The fourrequired questions that Powell suggested a leader should ask beforeundertaking a war are 1) Does the State have superior firepower andoverwhelming force compared to the enemy's? 2) Does the State have asuccessful exit strategy to extract itself when its goals are accomplished or when it cannot meet those goals, 3) Whether there is a clear definition of success and victory, and 4) Whether the initiative and has the backing andsupport ( hearts and minds ) of the people.

Ruben Aguilar and Jorge Castaeda concluded that Felipe Caldern failedto consider the first three requirements when he jumped feet first into anill advised war against the drug cartels; and, they also argue that PresidentCaldern had only partial and tepid support with respect to the 4thelement ( hearts and minds ) of Colin Powells Doctrine. Drug-Trafficking-Organizations were, and remain, well-armed and more coherently organized than the Mexican army and navy forces engaging them in the war on drugs. Felipe Caldern never stated a plan to " end and exit hiswar "; he suggested no clear definition to measure the final success otherthan offering a vaguely expressed desire to " obliterate" cartels and drugtrafficking something no country in the world has ever been able toaccomplish . In terms of the 4 elements of the Powell Doctrine, FelipeCaldern intiated his narcoguerra backed by the support of a majority of

the Mexican population but that support has eroded as the executionsreached record levels, and as more and more communities experienced theconsequences and collateral damage drug related crime, and as the humanrights abuses piled up during in the militarys management of the drug war.

Social networking and internet consultation is incapable of addressing the first three elements of the Powell Doctrine. How can public comments

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uploaded to Facebook do anything to eliminate the powerful arsenalsaccumulated by Drug Trafficking Organizations? How will publiccomments on Facebook lead to a sophisticated and workable "exit strategy"in a war that is directly fueled by " transnational economic realities ","accidents of geographical location ", and " the international politics and disagreements about the best strategies to conduct a battle against cartels "? And how will the inevitable vitriolic and angry comments postedto Facebook be crystallized, shaped and generalized into concrete"indicators of success " for a war that was begun without an overall strategy by a president who hoped to used the language of war to achieve alegitimacy that had been denied to him in the general election. The only possible positive outcome of an internet consultation might be an "boost"in public support but this is most unlikely given the past experiences of Facebook's impact. In fact, opening up an internet consultation is morelikely to reduce Calderns minimal level of support even further and

unfortunately prove to be a forum for those whose anger is already past the breaking point.

Conducting a narco war is not the only strategy for controlling drugtrafficking, drug violence and the collateral crime associated with it andone can only hope that President Caldern is sincerely willing to engageand commit to a broad multi-dimensional and long term plan to bring drugtrafficking and drug violence under control. Rubn Aguilar and JoregeCastaeda suggest several policy options that could easily be considered inany pilot program to be introduced into Ciudad Jurez, and severalcountries have already demonstrated some success in controlling the level

of drug trafficking without relying exclusively on a "policy base in war". Any "pilot" strategy introduced in Ciudad Jurez and Chihuahua must becomprehensive and must be based on a multi-dimensional approach thatincludes realistic and concrete short term and long term objectives to limitand control the impact of narcotraffic. Any attempt to develop andconstruct a policy to fight drug programs using social networking tools isdoomed to fail.


can internet consultation help to end drug violence in mexico?

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