6th Milestones MeetingGlobal Campaign for Violence Prevention

Mexico City, 13 November 2013Towards Measurable Violence Prevention Targets:

Tracking Tests of Targeted Interventions: Triple-T

Lawrence W. ShermanCambridge University &University of Maryland

My Proposal

The United Nations should fund the WHO to

create a proactive global registry of every

rigorous test

of any intervention designed to prevent violence, with equal emphasis on

1. What works

2. What does NOT work

3. Where, in context

Please Raise Your Hands

If you have ever heard of the

Campbell

Collaboration

TESTS OF INTERVENTIONS • International Voluntary Effort

• Hosted by Norwegian Government

• Tiny Budget

• High standards, Systematic Reviews

• What Helps, What Harms?

• Education, Social Services, Crime

• www.campbellcollaboration.org

Many Interventions Prevent Violence

• Many not even designed for violence

• Some that are opposed for violence

• Yet may work well on violence

• Such as restorative justice conferences

Restorative Justice Conference

2-3 Hour Meeting

• Victims

• Offenders

• Family

• Friends

• Discuss three things:

1. What Happened?

2. Who was harmed and how?

3. What should offender do to repair?

Works Better for Violence

But Where Is The Evidence?

Where Do We Know, not just Assume, that it Works?

• Mexico? No• Burma? No• Spain? No

ENGLISH -SPEAKING COUNTRIES ONLY:

Australia, UK, US

Are There Non-English Tests?

• Why don’t we know?• 519 studies reviewed• All in English• Only10 met standards• But others may exist• Not in English• Main obstacle:

$$$$$$$$$$$$$

My Proposal

The United Nations should fund the WHO to

create a proactive global registry of every

rigorous test

of any intervention designed to prevent violence, with equal emphasis on

1. What works

2. What does NOT work

3. Where, in context

Definition of Evidence-Based

Internal Validity

• Unbiased tests

• Effective where tested

• Well-specified model

External Validity

• Replications

• Different settings

• Same results?

What Global Means

• Not that interventions work everywhere

• But that they works somewhere

• Evidence on where they do, or NOT

• Develop understanding of WHY, e. size

• Frances Gardner, Oxford—cross national

First Domestic Violence Arrest Experiment: 1980-84

• Minneapolis Police• Controlled Test• Arrest,

mediation, separation

• Arrest reduced

repeat offending by 50%

Domestic Violence:

1. Arrests deter employed men

2. Arrests make unemployed men more violent

3. Arrests deter men in areas of low unemployment

4. Arrests increase violence by men in areas of high unemployment

Milwaukee: Repeat domestic violence per 1,000 suspects per year

Omaha: Repeat domestic violence per 1,000 suspects per year

Miami: Percent of Offenders with repeat domestic violence

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

0

200

400

600

800

0

200

400

600

800

Arrested Warned Arrested Warned Arrested Warned Arrested Warned

Arrested Warned Arrested Warned

Employed Unemployed Employed Unemployed

Employed Unemployed

Subgroups Vary

How Long Does it “Work”

• How long does it take to detect harm

• When we intervene with individuals

• What should the standard of care be?

• 6 months?

• 2 Years?

• 23 Years?

What We Don’t Know...

• Can kill us

• And other people

• Even when we are sincerely trying to help

• But sincerity is not evidence

• Fighting harmful practices is as important

• As promoting helpful practices

• Only TESTING can tell us the difference

Best—and Worst--Practices

Best Practices• Nurse-family partners• Pre-school partners• Hot spots patrols• Restorative justice

conferences• Drug courts• Juvenile diversion • Problem-oriented

policing

Worst Practices• Arrest for minor

domestic disputes• Police second

responders to domestic calls

• Scared Straight• DARE• CCTV to prevent

violence

Cambridge Somerville 1930s

• 10-12 yr-old boys• Random assignment• Mentors—monthly• Summer camp• Health care• 30-year followup• Treatment kids died

sooner• More crime• More mental illness

Professor Joan McCord

Domestic abuse 2d Responders

• After crisis call• 3-10 days later• Police visit victim• With social worker• No offender home• Provide info• Follow-up• No effect on injury• More frequent DV

Chicago: Causing Crime

Effects of “Scared Straight” on Crime: 7 RCTs

CCTV Effect on Violence:Farrington Campbell Review

• Violence was reported in 23 evaluations, but CCTV had a desirable effect in reducing violence in only 3 cases (Airdrie, Malmö, and Shire Town). Overall, there was no effect of CCTV on violence.

• How much money spent on CCTV could be spent on interventions that work?

Good News on Hot Spots Policing—in US!!

Three new tests UK

• One under way in Caracas

• First district-level in Trinidad

• Marriage of epidemiology and intervention

• But still needs RCTs all over the world

• Trinidad murder rate 40 per100,000

Where Should Police Patrol:Crime Peaks or Crime Valleys?

Triple-T Against Crime

30

Homicides & Shootings in 40 Trinidad Police Districts,

2 months Before and after September 2013:20 Controls vs. 20 “TTT” Experimentals

My Proposal

The United Nations should fund the WHO to

create a proactive global registry of every

rigorous test

of any intervention designed to prevent violence, with equal emphasis on

1. What works

2. What does NOT work

3. Where, in context

A PROACTIVE Registry

• Seeking every day for newly reported tests

• In 50-100 languages—(or at least 5!!)

• Contacting authors, obtaining copies

• Reviewing, coding, abstracting

• Entering in data base

• Studying external validity--generalizability

• Making results available in 100 languages

• A truly global project on what works

The Measureable Targets

1. Doubling the number of rigorous tests of interventions to prevent violence every five years, world-wide.

2. Doubling the number of tests every five years in each country.

3. Doubling the number of countries that have ever completed a rigorous test of such interventions within five years.

Funding

• Much more than doubling

• 6 million deaths a year

• What we invest in world peace

• We can invest in violence prevention

6th Milestones MeetingGlobal Campaign for Violence Prevention

Mexico City, 13 November 2013Towards Measurable Violence Prevention Targets:

THANK YOU

Lawrence W. ShermanCambridge University &University of Maryland