California’s Career Technical Education Challenge

John Husing, Ph.D.

Chief Economist

Inland Empire Economic Partnership

After Losing 8.71 Million Jobs …U.S. Jobs Now Beyond All The Way Back

U.S. & CA Unemployment History

Cold War Ends Great RecessionPrime Rate: 21%

5.9%

7.3%

California Job Gains/Losses2008-2010-1,066,400

DefenseCutbacks

Dot.Com

GreatRecession

2011-2014+1,315,558

2014 Up+249,158

Recovery

Regions

Central Valley

Expanded Bay Area

Inland Empire

Los Angeles

So. Coast

Rest

of

Calif.

Huge Adult Workforce Education IssueWith 1 of 2 to 1 of 3

Adults Marginally Educated

Great Disparity in Share: BA or Higher

Poverty

Much of Our Future Workforce Is Living In Poverty

Ethnicity of Poverty, One Region

Low Public Health Rankings of 58 Counties, 2014

Causes of Public Health Difficulties

1. Socio-Economics 40%

2. Population’s Health Behaviors 30%

3. Access to Medical Care 20%

4. Environmental 10%

Source: Different Perspectives For Assigning Weights To Determinants of Health, University of Wisconsin, Public Health Institute, 2010

90%

What is Needed To Attack Poverty?

• Short Course Adult & New Entrant Training in Specific Skills

• Sectors With Few Education Barriers to Entry

• Median Incomes Approaching Middle Class Earnings

• Skill Ladders Up Which Workers Can Move To Median

Incomes

• Sectors That Are Adding Jobs

Median Incomes Near To Middle Class Needs, Minimum Entry Level Requirements

Can Help Put a Household in the Middle Class

Middle Class Earnings, Minimum Skills To

Enter

Share of Jobs: Minimal Academic Requirements to Entry

What Sectors Are Growing/Shrinking

Manufacturing

California Just 0.98% ofU.S. Manufacturing Job Growth

Jobs Are Becoming Available To Replace Aging Baby Boomer Technicians

Median Pay: $48,923

CA Electrical Costs vs. Western States

Nestle to close Valley food Plant360 California jobs will be lost as Hot Pockets production goes to Kentucky

“In higher skilled industries they are hesitant to move because the labor force is not available anywhere. But lower-skilled one, they have an easier time leaving.

That trend in California has the potential to leave lower-educated workers behind.

BUSINESSThursday, August 7, 2014 LATIMES.COM/BUSINESS

::

Companies Can Leave or Not Come … It is the Workers

Who Pay the Price

Logistics

Port Container Volumes

Modern Manufacturing Is Logistics!

Fulfillment Centers

E-Commerce Growth RatesYear Over Year by Quarter

Strong Job CreationMedian Pay = $43,911

CARB: Diesel Pollution Is Disappearing

Exhibit 6.-PM 2.5 Days over National Standard vs. Total Square Feet of Net Industrial Absorption Since Highest PM2.5 level

Monitoring SitesMira Loma-Van

BurenRiverside-Magnolia

Riverside-Rubidoux

Fontana-Arrow Highway

Ontario-1408 Francis Street

San Bernardino-4th Street

2001     120.2 58.2 79.5 80.8

2002   88.4 92.6 73.7 67.4 88.9

2003   69.7 78.1 54.3 62.2 55.2

2004 * 47.8 57.3 * * *

2005 * * 39.7 22.9 25.3 9.3

2006 46.2 31.3 * 27.2 * *

2007 43.4 * * * * *

2008 * 12.4 15.0 19.3 19.4 9.5

2009 19.0 6.0 15.1 6.2 9.0 6.2

2010 8.0 6.3 4.0 6.6 3.2 5.9

2011 13.0 7.1 5.0 7.1 6.8 *

2012 7.0 * 7.0 10.6 0.0 0.0

2013 9.2 3.0 6.2 3.0 0.0 3.3

Change From Highest -37.0 -85.4 -114.0 -70.7 -79.5 -85.6

Change -80.1% -96.6% -94.8% -95.9% -100.0% -96.3%

Net Absorptiont Since Highest 101,204,114 198,737,217 244,793,404 198,737,217 244,793,404 198,737,217

AQMD & CARB Want To Reduce The Sector’s Growth

Construction & Real Estate:Finally A Recovery

Share of Underwater Homes Plunging

Negative Equity: CA is now Average

Notices of Default At Low Levels

Home Price Trends

70.1%

37.7% Above Existing Home -32.2%

2014,

BUSINESSThursday, August 7, 2014 LATIMES.COM/BUSINESS

New home shrinkagePared-down project illustrates a cause of limited housing affordability

“Original plans called for a multifamily development with three times as many homes, with many more affordable options.”

Now with plans modified to include 208 single family homes, prices will range from about $400,000 to 1.1 million.”

NIMBY & Lawyer power under what was suppose to be the

CA Environmental Quality Act

Construction Prognosis

Construction Sector Finally Strengthening

Companies Are Having Trouble Finding Workers

Median Pay = $51,923

Health Care

Physician Coverage An Issue In Many Places

Health Care Demand Set To Explode

People Without Health Insurance (2013) 6,500,179 (17.2%)People Will Age, Already 55 & Over 9,197,344 (24.0%)

Population Growth Will Resume (2000-14) 4,093,385 (12.1%)

ACS Enrollment Statistics

Source: Covered California www.coveredca.com

California

Non-Subsidized173,609

Subsidy Eligible 1,222,320

Total 1,395,929

Oct. 1, 2013 through Mar.31, 2014

Medi-Cal Almost 3-Times That Amount

Health Care Prognosis

Sector Is Working Through The Implications of the ACA

Sector Will Undergo Tremendous Change

Para-Professions/Technicians Will See Much of the Workload

Median Pay = $55,475

Other Sectors

Retail Management Restaurant Management Office Assistant

Escrow, Tile, Insurance, Real Estate Financial Management

April 28, 2014 by Courtney M. Fowler

California career technical education funding struggles to make the gradeShulock and her colleagues Jodi Lewis and Connie Tan created their study, “Workforce Investments:  State Strategies to Preserve Higher-Cost Career Education” to analyze the performance of CTE programs at colleges in 20 states around the country.

“California is really lacking in terms of the importance that is being placed on CTE programs,” Shulock said. “In other states they want to support and cultivate them so that they can continue to grow, but the problem is that here we don’t seem to see how important they are so, we’re a century behind other states in an industry that important.”

Who Is Hurt … If We Continue To Have Career Tech Under Funded?

Workers Among the 9,836,900 Adults Needing Training To Reach the Middle class

A Final Thought …

Given The Importance of Career Technical Education

Those Running the Efforts on Campuses Should Report Directly to their CEOs …

Otherwise They are Lost in the Academic Power Struggle

www. Johnhusing.com