california economic forecast january 2014

8/13/2019 California Economic Forecast January 2014

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2014-2018

Published quarterly by the Business Forecasting Center at the

University of the Pacific Eberhardt School of Business.

Copyright 2014 Business Forecasting Center. All rights reserved.

This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Forecasting Centers

judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast.

Neither the Pacific Business Forecasting Center nor The Regents of the University of

the Pacific shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless

approved by the Pacific Business Forecasting Center, the publication or distribution of

this forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this

forecast are prohibited.

California & Metro

January 2014


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Contents

California Highlights .................................................. 5

Forecast Summary .............................................6 - 10

California Forecast Tables .................................11 - 19

California Forecast Charts .................................20 - 25

Fresno MSA .....................................................27 - 30

Merced MSA ....................................................31 - 34

Modesto MSA .................................................. 35 - 38

Oakland MSA ....................................................39 - 42

Sacramento MSA ............................................. 43 - 46

San Francisco MSA ...........................................47 - 50

San Jose MSA ..................................................51 - 54

Santa Cruz MSA .............................................. 55 - 58

Stockton MSA ..................................................59 - 62

Vallejo-Fairfield MSA ......................................... 63 - 66


5/68Universit y of the Pacific Business Forecasting Cent

FORECAST HIGHLIGH

Highlights of the January 2014 California Forecast

California is forecast to experience 3% growth in real gross state product over the

2014 calendar year, and accelerate to 3.6% growth in 2015.

California unemployment rate has fallen below 8.5% due to increasing employmentand very slow growth in the labor force. We expect the unemployment rate to showlittle change in 2014 as labor force growth accelerates to match a 1.5% to 2.0%growth rate of employment.

Payroll jobs are projected to grow at 1.6% rate in 2014, and increase to 2% growthfrom 2015 to 2017 as the housing recovery reignites homebuilding.

Single-family housing starts have been slower to respond to increased housing prices

than we have anticipated, and we have reduced our forecast for 2014 single familyhousing starts to 48,000 units. We project a signicant increase to 72,000 single-family units in 2015, 94,000 in 2016, and remaining just below 100,000 units insubsequent years.

Multi-family housing starts have nearly recovered pre-recession levels, and areprojected to increase from 35,000 new starts in 2013 to 60,000 units by 2017.

State and local government employment stabilized in 2013, and will remain atfor most of 2014. We expect 1% growth in state and local government payrollsto resume in 2015 and subsequent years. By 2018, we expect state and local

government payrolls will have only recovered 100,000 of the 135,000 jobs lost since2007.

About 250,000 new Construction jobs are expected to be created over the next fouryears, almost one-quarter of the 1.1 million jobs California will add between 2013and 2017. Despite leading the state in job growth over the next four years, there willstill be fewer Construction jobs than before the recession.

Manufacturing employment has been relatively at for the past 3 years after adecade of signicant decline. We project slow growth over the next few years withsome of the growth driven by the construction rebound and the increasing demand

for building materials. Te Health Services sector was the only private sector to experience consistent job

growth throughout the recession. Health care employment will continue consistentgains of about 35,000 jobs per year over the next few years.

Professional Scientic & echnical Services is a high-paying sector that has led jobgrowth in the recovery and fully recovered pre-recession employment in early 2012.Tis sector will see somewhat slower job growth, but still add at least 20,000 jobsannually from 2013 to 2017.


6/686 Californ ia & Metro Forecast - January 2014

FORECAST SUMMARY

California OutlookTe California economy continues its slow recovery.

Reduced scal and global risks and an improving housingmarket set the stage for stronger growth in 2014. However,

new home construction is responding more slowly tohigher housing prices than we originally estimated. As aresult, one of the major drivers of 2014 forecast is weakerthan our earlier forecasts. Between the slow home buildingresponse and a very modest general growth impact fromdeepening drought conditions, we believe economicgrowth will once again remain below 3% in 2014, beforeaccelerating to approximately 3.5% growth between2015 and 2017. We project a 40,000 unit increase in newhousing starts between 2014 and 2015.

We forecast signicant growth in the labor force in2014 as individuals respond to the improving economy.Tus, the unemployment rate will hold steady around8.5% in 2014 even as job growth maintains a 1.5% to2% growth rate. Of course, we made a similar forecastin 2013 and labor force participation did not respondand unemployment declined faster than we projected. Iflabor force participation remains at a depressed level, theunemployment rate could decline to 7% by the end of theyear. Professional and Business Services and Constructionare projected to have the strongest job growth over

the next year, while we project at employment inmanufacturing and nance.

It is an election year in California, and we are notexpecting major new economic policy initiatives at thestate level. However, it will be a pivotal year for the futureof the states two proposed megaprojects, high-speed railand the delta water tunnels. Both projects face formidablenancing challenges that could either stop or lead to majorproject restructuring before the end of the year.

ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF DROUGHT:

Te extreme drought gripping the state is dominatingnews headlines and will have signicant economicimpacts, especially on the agriculture and recreationindustries. However, urban areas in Southern Californiand the Bay Area will be largely unaffected, and thesetwo regions account for the vast majority of economicactivity in California. Tus, even the worst case droughscenarios should have no more than a quarter percentagpoint impact on Californias economic growth. Howevthe economic impacts on specic industries and somehard-hit rural communities can be very severe, andsignicant environmental and quality of life impactsoccur even in areas where economic output is virtuallyunchanged by dry conditions.

It is too early to make projections for 2014, but ourresearch on the effects of the 2009 drought provides soinsight into potential impacts on agriculture. In 2009,agricultural water shortages in the San Joaquin Valleyresulted in about 250,000 fallowed acres, and the lossof about $350 million loss in agricultural output and6,000 agricultural related jobs. While this only amounto about 3% of Californias enormous crop output, thefallowing was highly concentrated in areas on the west

side of Kern, Kings and Fresno counties where juniorwater rights result in the largest water shortages. Teseareas include some of the poorest, rural communities inthe country, so they are poorly equipped to deal withthe loss of agricultural jobs. During 2009, many mediareports and public leaders fueled by some inaccurateinitial estimates of 40,000 to 90,000 lost jobs that werlater withdrawn and corrected failed to distinguishbetween the economic impacts of the endangered speci

Table 1. California Annual Forecast Summary2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Real Gross State Product (% change) 2.4 2.3 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.3

Non-Farm Payroll Employment (% change) 1.7 1.6 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.3

Unemployment Rate (%) 8.9 8.5 8.0 7.3 6.4 5.9

Housing Starts (thousands) 70.6 87.5 124.9 151.7 157.1 161.4



FORECAST SUMMA

regulations, the drought, the impacts of the deep 2009recession and the foreclosure crisis, and the persistenthigh poverty gripping these communities in wet years anddry years.

Most current media reports and statements from publicofficials about the water crisis have been more responsible

than the exaggerated rhetoric of 2009. However, watershortages currently look like they will be even more severein 2014 than 2009, so the economic impacts are likelyto be larger as well and could spread out into a broaderarea. Farmers are resourceful in droughts, and becausethey take many costly actions to maintain farm output indry conditions, the loss in production can understate thefull economic toll on agriculture. Increased groundwaterpumping and deeper wells mean higher costs that reducefarmers bottom lines, and deplete groundwater resourcesfor use in future years. Farmers also bear higher costsfor water transfers and signicantly increased feed coststo maintain livestock that reduce protability and raiseconcerns with lenders.

While agriculture feels the most acute impacts ofdrought, other industries also feel effects. Ski resortsare suffering from low snow totals, and their employeesare enduring reduced hours and earnings. Marinas onreservoirs are land-locked, and shing related industrieswill feel the environmental effects for many years.Consumer expenditures on car washes, landscaping

and other services will decline. All of these impacts,from agriculture to recreation, will become more severein subsequent years if the drought continues. As moreinformation becomes available in the months ahead, wewill provide more detailed estimates of economic impactsin our spring forecast.

Finally, the drought is also exposing some of the awsin the States $25 billion Bay Delta Conservation Plan(BDCP) proposal which is based on the construction ofenormous water conveyance tunnels under the Delta. It isdifficult to promote enormous investments in conveyance

infrastructure to move water from northern Californiato southern California when the Metropolitan WaterDistricts reservoirs in southern California are full whileFolsom Reservoir sits at less than 18% capacity. SouthernCalifornia water agencies are not imposing any water userestrictions, while such restrictions are widespread aroundSacramento and other parts of northern California thatare supposedly water rich. In fact, the relatively goodwater supply conditions in urban southern California areconvincing evidence of the effectiveness of investments

in conservation, alternative water supplies, and storage;and show why further investments in this area aresuperior to the tunnels plan. Achieving even greater waindependence in these coastal urban areas will free upDelta water for agriculture and the environment, butinvestments needed to achieve this independence would

be threatened by the nancial needs of the tunnels.Tere are already widespread doubts in San Joaquin

Valley agricultures ability to pay the enormous debtservice on the tunnels, especially when the BDCP planshows the tunnels will not provide more water in dryyears when it is most needed. Future bondholders willnot care whether the state is in a multi-year drought anwill require payment even when hundreds of thousandof acres are fallowed and farm incomes are low. Previoureports by the Business Forecasting Center have detailewhy the BDCP is bad investment for the state and thecurrent drought is only reinforcing those conclusions.

THE REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK:

Northern California, primarily fueled by San Jose andSan Francisco, continues to lead Californias economicrecovery. Te regional recovery is now beginning tospread inland, and we forecast that northern Californiawill continue to outperform the state as a whole. Weforecast that seven out of the ten metro areas we cover woutperform Californias 1.6% job growth in 2014.

Sacramento is among the areas that we expect to exce2% job growth in 2014. Te recovery is driven by theconstruction and service sectors, supported by risinghome values and the improving state budget outlook.Government, the regions largest employer, will struggleto achieve 1% job growth, but the end of furloughs andmodest raises to state worker paychecks will supportthe consumer and service sectors. We are anticipatingsignicant revisions to Sacramento employment data anMarch, and believe that weak forecasts for the Capital

Region based on recent monthly jobs reports will provebe overly pessimistic.

We project the northern San Joaquin Valley will leadnorthern California in the pace of job growth for 2014.Annual job growth is projected to range from 2.7% inModesto to 3.7% in the Stockton metro area. Some of tsignicant growth is simply an outcome of reboundingfrom the lowest bottom, but it also is driven by somecatalyst projects such as the new Amazon facilities inPatterson and racy. Much of the recent growth in


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FORECAST SUMMA

Stockton voters narrowly passed the cent sales taxincrease with 53% of voters supporting the measure, and

an accompanying non-binding advisory measure thatdirects the City to spend 2/3 of the new sales tax proceedson public safety.

As of this writing, the Citys plan of adjustment isstill being challenged by the one major creditor who hasnot settled with the City, and the bankruptcy court isexpected to hear the case this winter. If the court acceptsthe plan of adjustment, Stockton could leave bankruptcyprotection later this year.

Te City may yet reach a settlement with the remaining

major creditor, Franklin Investments, over roughly $30million in bonds issued in 2009, clearing the largestremaining obstacle to its bankruptcy. Since the Citysinitial offer is for Franklin to take a near total loss on itsinvestment, because the bond collateral is worthless tothe creditors. Te bonds are backed by Stocktons money-losing public golf courses, but the creditors are not allowedto change the use of the properties if they take possessionof them. Te City is likely to improve its offer, but isunlikely to increase its offer to much more than a 50% lossbecause of a most favored nation clause in its pension

bond settlement which requires the City to improve thepension bond settlement to match any future settlementsit may reach with other creditors.

Even if the City reaches a settlement with Franklin,there is the question of whether the Citys plan ofadjustment is adequate to return the City to scalhealth. Te plan assumes the sales tax increase passed inNovember is made permanent and does not expire in tenyears as promised to the Citys taxpayers. Te bankruptcyexit plan projects the City rebuilds a nancial reserve in

the next few years before all of the 120 promised policeofficers are hired, but returns to annual decits after allthe new police officers are hired. Te Citys exit plan donot forecast a signicant budget surplus or an adequatenancial reserve when the tax would expire in ten yearsthus it assumes future city councils will extend the tax.

It will be interesting to see if the court has nancialconcerns about the plan of adjustment. Regardless, itis clear that the City will have extremely tight budgetsfor the foreseeable future and hiring all of the promised120 police officers will prove difficult, especially if newemployee contracts include restoration of raises and cos

of living increases. Stocktons new city manager will faccontinuing challenges to balance the budget and restoreservices even though the City is likely to exit bankruptcthis year.

Despite these future challenges, Stockton is in a muchstronger position today than most would have anticipatwhen the City led for bankruptcy in 2012. In 2012,Stockton was in a deep nancial and public safety crisisTe City was defaulting on bonds and losing control ofcity assets, police officers were leaving the City for jobs other areas, and a violent crime wave reached a record 7

homicides with a number of brazen, headline grabbingcrimes in broad daylight. While there was certainly a loof drama surrounding City politics in 2013, the Stocktoeconomic and public safety situation began a remarkablstabilization and a surprisingly robust turnaround. Jobsare growing again, crime rates have declined signicantland home values have increased 30% - the fastest rateof appreciation in the country according to the FederalHousing Finance Authority.

Table 3. Bay Area Metro Forecast Summary

Metro Area Nonfarm Payroll Employment (% change) Unemployment Rate (%)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

San Francisco 3.1 2.6 2.1 1.8 1.4 5.5 5.0 4.7 4.3 3.8

San Jose 2.9 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.2 6.9 6.4 5.9 5.3 4.6

Oakland 1.3 1.4 2.2 2.2 1.8 7.4 6.9 6.5 5.8 5.1

Santa Cruz 4.4 0.9 1.6 1.4 1.1 9.2 8.6 8.0 7.3 6.7

Vallejo 2.8 2.8 2.2 2.4 2.2 8.3 8.0 7.6 6.6 5.7

California 1.7 1.6 1.9 2.0 1.8 8.9 8.5 8.0 7.3 6.4

NOTE: San Francisco MSA includes San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties. Oakland MSA includes Contra Costa and Alameda counties. San Jose MSAincludes Santa Clara and San Benito counties. Vallejo and Santa Cruz MSAs correspond to Solano and Santa Cruz counties.



FORECAST SUMMARY

CHANGING INCOME INEQUALITY IN NORTHERNCALIFORNIA:

Rising income inequality is increasingly in the newsand was a focus of President Obamas State of the Unionaddress. In San Francisco, protests and controversy aboutprivate buses transporting high-income tech workers toSilicon Valley and related concerns about rising housingcosts and gentrication have added an interesting regionaldimension to the discussion. Te most common measureof income inequality is a Gini coefficient, a measure inwhich 0 is total equality and a coefficient of 1 reectstotal income inequality. able 4 shows trends in Ginicoefficients for the region calculated from the CensusBureau data.

Te data shows the trend in rising inequality in the Uand California. Regionally, the highest levels of inequalare in the San Francisco MSA, and the lowest levels ofincome inequality are in Placer and El Dorado counties,eastern suburbs of the Sacramento area. Interestingly, thSan Jose MSA had the lowest level of inequality in 1990

but has experienced the largest increase in inequality although Santa Clara County still has a lower degree ofinequality than the California average. San Joaquin ValMSAs have experienced a smaller increase in the level ofinequality over the past two decades than larger urbanareas, and all of them now have levels of inequality belowthe California average.

Table 4. Historic Gini Coefficents

1990 2000 2010 2012

United States 0.428 0.462 0.469 0.476

California 0.441 0.475 0.471 0.482

Fresno MSA 0.454 0.469 0.462 0.478

Merced MSA 0.434 0.442 0.489 0.452

Modesto MSA 0.426 0.439 0.458 0.446

Oakland MSA

Alameda County 0.417 0.446 0.459 0.475

Contra Costa County 0.409 0.439 0.445 0.462Sacramento MSA

El Dorado County 0.397 0.433 0.442 0.425

Placer County 0.412 0.424 0.425 0.432

Sacramento County 0.409 0.431 0.434 0.456

Yolo County 0.443 0.458 0.464 0.480

San Francisco MSA

Marin County 0.457 0.486 0.512 0.517

San Francisco County 0.470 0.498 0.507 0.523

San Mateo County 0.423 0.458 0.453 0.485

San Jose MSA

Santa Clara County 0.394 0.430 0.452 0.466

San Benito County 0.394 0.394 0.458 0.450

Santa Cruz MSA 0.425 0.452 0.460 0.462

Stockton MSA 0.418 0.441 0.436 0.456

Source: 1990 & 2000 Decennial Census; 2006-2012 1-year ACS, except San Benito County2007-2012 3-year ACS


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CALIFORNIA TABL

Table 1. Annual Summary of the University o f Pacific Forecast for California

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2

Personal Income and Gross State Product

Personal Income (Bi l. $) 1499.5 1564.4 1596.3 1536.4 1579.1 1683.2 1768.0 1804.4 1890.6 1985.6 2095.0 2216.0 23

Calif. (%Ch) 7.4 4.3 2.1 -3.7 2.8 6.6 5.0 2.1 4.8 5.0 5.5 5.8

Real Personal Income (Bil. 2005$) 1460.3 1486.4 1471.8 1417.6 1433.1 1492.0 1538.6 1553.0 1606.5 1661.0 1721.9 1789.4 18

(%Ch) 4.6 1.8 -1.0 -3.7 1.1 4.1 3.1 1.0 3.4 3.4 3.7 3.9

Real Disposable Income (Bil. 2005$) 1270.6 1284.0 1288.6 1268.6 1276.2 1312.6 1348.3 1345.6 1389.5 1435.8 1488.9 1547.6 15

(%Ch) 4.0 1.1 0.4 -1.6 0.6 2.9 2.7 -0.2 3.3 3.3 3.7 3.9

Gross State Product (Bil . $) 1798.2 1870.9 1900.5 1818.6 1845.3 1908.9 2003.4 2072.4 2154.2 2265.4 2388.2 2514.5 26

Calif. (%Ch) 6.5 4.0 1.6 -4.3 1.5 3.5 4.9 3.4 3.9 5.2 5.4 5.3

Real GSP (Bil. 2005$) 1745.4 1763.5 1756.1 1667.2 1672.5 1692.3 1754.3 1796.4 1837.8 1900.9 1969.9 2039.6 21

Calif. (%Ch) 3.4 1.0 -0.4 -5.0 0.3 1.2 3.7 2.4 2.3 3.4 3.6 3.5

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change)

Employment 1.4 0.9 -0.4 -4.3 -0.6 1.1 2.0 2.3 2.0 1.6 1.8 1.8

Labor Force 0.8 1.3 1.6 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.5 1.0 1.0 0.9

CA Unemployment Rate (%) 4.9 5.3 7.2 11.3 12.3 11.8 10.5 8.9 8.5 8.0 7.3 6.4

Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change)

Total Nonfarm

California 1.8 0.8 -1.3 -6.0 -1.0 1.2 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.9 2.0 1.8

Mining 6.3 6.5 7.9 -9.2 3.0 7.4 4.5 -1.5 0.1 0.7 1.9 1.0

Construction 3.2 -4.3 -11.8 -21.1 -9.9 0.5 4.9 5.4 5.9 10.8 11.2 7.6

Manufacturing -1.0 -1.7 -2.6 -10.1 -3.0 0.5 0.4 -0.4 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.3

Nondurable Goods -0.6 -1.2 -2.0 -8.2 -2.4 -0.3 0.3 -1.0 -0.5 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2

Durable Goods -1.2 -2.1 -3.0 -11.2 -3.4 1.0 0.6 0.0 2.6 1.7 1.0 0.6

Trans. Warehs. & Utility 1.8 2.3 -0.6 -6.0 -1.6 1.7 2.5 2.0 2.1 2.9 3.3 3.0

Wholesale Trade 4.0 2.2 -1.7 -8.3 -0.1 2.2 2.8 3.0 1.4 2.1 2.6 2.2

Retail Trade 1.3 0.5 -2.9 -7.2 -0.5 1.5 1.8 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.5 0.6

Financial Activities 0.9 -3.4 -6.1 -7.0 -2.9 0.3 1.7 1.8 -0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.8

Prof. and Business Services 3.8 1.0 -1.1 -8.0 0.7 2.9 4.9 2.8 2.8 4.2 3.4 2.7

Edu. & Health Services 1.8 3.5 3.3 1.6 1.6 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.7 1.3 2.1 2.1 Leisure & Hospitality 3.0 2.7 0.8 -4.4 -0.1 2.3 4.1 4.3 2.4 1.4 1.1 1.4

Information -1.6 1.1 1.0 -7.4 -2.8 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.6 1.4 2.3 2.8

Federal Gov't. -0.6 -0.7 0.5 1.1 6.8 -4.6 -2.0 -2.5 0.6 -0.6 -2.0 -1.7

State & Local Gov't. 1.5 2.0 1.0 -1.8 -2.1 -1.4 -1.2 -0.4 0.0 0.9 1.1 1.2

Population and Migration

Population (Ths.) 36052.0 36302.1 36648.9 37012.0 37379.8 37728.9 38086.7 38451.0 38820.3 39193.7 39571.5 39953.0 403

(%Ch) 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

Net Migration (Quarterly Rate, Ths.) -28.5 -9.1 8.6 16.5 17.3 19.2 22.8 22.8 21.8 20.8 19.9 19.0

Housing

Housing Starts Tot. Private (Annual Rate, Ths.) 154.1 102.1 60.9 36.0 39.1 45.8 55.7 70.6 87.5 124.9 151.7 157.1 1

Housing Starts Single Family 113.7 70.1 36.5 26.7 26.8 23.9 28.7 35.4 47.9 71.8 93.7 97.8

Housing Starts Multi-Family 40.4 32.0 24.4 9.3 12.3 21.9 27.0 35.2 39.7 53.1 58.0 59.3

Consumer Prices

(%Ch) 3.4 3.2 3.3 -0.3 1.1 2.8 2.2 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.9



CALIFORNIA TABLES

Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the University of Pacific Forecast for California

2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 201


Personal Income (Annual Rate, Bil. $) 1764.5 1833.1 1777.7 1794.0 1814.1 1831.8 1857.5 1878.5 1901.6 1924.6 1950.7 19

Calif. (%Ch) 3.9 8.6 2.6 3.0 2.8 -0.1 4.5 4.7 4.8 5.1 5.0

Real Personal Income (Bil. 2005$) 1533.0 1586.2 1534.1 1548.6 1558.5 1571.0 1587.7 1599.1 1612.6 1626.5 1641.9 16

(%Ch) 2.3 6.8 1.2 1.9 1.7 -1.0 3.5 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.4

Real Disposable Income (Bil . 2005$) 1343.9 1389.7 1330.6 1342.6 1349.6 1359.5 1373.2 1383.5 1394.4 1406.9 1418.8 14

(%Ch) 1.9 6.4 0.2 0.8 0.4 -2.2 3.2 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.3

Gross State Product (Bil. $) 2021.2 2033.1 2046.1 2058.8 2086.7 2097.8 2117.0 2140.4 2166.3 2193.0 2221.8 22

Calif. (%Ch) 5.5 4.7 3.8 3.5 3.2 3.2 3.5 4.0 3.8 4.5 4.9

Real GSP (Bil. 2005$) 1764.1 1777.3 1782.2 1790.3 1804.3 1808.7 1818.1 1829.5 1843.9 1859.7 1875.2 18

Calif. (%Ch) 4.3 3.6 2.9 2.7 2.3 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.8 3.1


Employment 2.1 2.0 2.2 3.1 2.4 1.7 2.2 1.4 2.2 2.4 1.5

Labor Force 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.3 1.0 1.2 1.8 2.1 1.1

CA Unemployment Rate (%) 10.4 9.9 9.6 8.7 8.8 8.6 8.6 8.5 8.5 8.4 8.2


Total Nonfarm

California 2.3 2.4 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.8 1.9

Mining 3.9 -1.0 -1.3 -2.6 -2.6 0.4 -0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.3

Construction 4.9 6.2 5.3 6.4 5.2 4.7 3.7 4.7 7.0 8.0 9.4

Manufacturing 0.4 0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.1 -0.3 0.8 1.3 1.8 2.0 1.7

Nondurable Goods 0.5 -0.3 -1.2 -1.2 -0.3 -1.3 -0.3 -0.5 -1.2 0.2 -0.2

Durable Goods 0.4 0.8 -0.1 -0.4 0.1 0.4 1.5 2.3 3.6 3.0 2.8

Trans. Warehs. & Utility 2.7 3.0 2.7 1.4 1.9 1.8 1.8 2.6 1.8 2.0 2.6

Wholesale Trade 2.8 3.8 3.6 3.2 3.2 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.1 1.5 1.8

Retail Trade 1.6 1.6 0.4 -0.1 1.4 0.4 1.3 1.6 0.2 0.6 0.5

Financial Activities 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.0 1.7 1.2 0.5 -0.4 -0.5 0.0 0.1

Prof. and Business Services 5.2 4.6 3.6 3.1 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.5 2.8 3.6 4.1

Edu. & Health Services 2.5 2.7 2.2 2.4 2.1 1.8 2.1 2.1 1.5 1.2 1.2

Leisure & Hospitality 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.1 4.2 4.5 3.3 2.6 2.0 1.6 1.6

Information 0.7 1.4 1.8 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.1

Federal Gov't. -2.6 -1.7 -2.1 -2.3 -2.5 -2.9 -0.8 0.5 1.3 1.2 0.1

State & Local Gov't. -1.0 -0.8 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.6 0.6


Population (Ths.) 38131.6 38222.2 38313.3 38404.8 38496.8 38588.9 38681.2 38773.8 38866.6 38959.7 39053.0 391

(%Ch) 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

Net Migration (Ths.) 23.0 22.9 22.9 22.8 22.8 22.5 22.2 21.9 21.7 21.4 21.2

Housing

Housing Starts Tot. Private (Annual Rate, Th 62.0 61.8 71.4 68.4 72.7 69.8 75.5 84.3 91.5 98.8 109.1 1

Housing Starts Single Family 30.2 35.9 35.6 34.5 35.5 36.1 40.2 46.0 50.4 54.9 60.0 Housing Starts Multi-Family 31.8 25.9 35.8 33.9 37.2 33.7 35.3 38.3 41.1 43.9 49.1

Consumer Prices

(%Ch) 2.1 2.5 1.8 1.6 1.7 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.2 1.5 1.6



CALIFORNIA TABL

Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the University of Pacific Forecast for Californi a

2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 201


Personal Income (Annual Rate, Bil. $) 1996.9 2021.3 2053.2 2080.2 2108.4 2138.0 2171.3 2201.3 2231.0 2260.6 2292.0 23

Calif. (%Ch) 5.0 5.0 5.3 5.4 5.6 5.8 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.6

Real Personal Income (Bil. 2005$) 1667.2 1680.3 1698.5 1713.4 1729.4 1746.2 1765.3 1781.7 1797.6 1813.2 1829.1 18

(%Ch) 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.9 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.6

Real Disposable Income (Bil. 2005$) 1441.7 1452.8 1467.9 1480.7 1495.8 1511.2 1524.5 1539.8 1555.4 1570.7 1579.5 15

(%Ch) 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.8 4.0 3.9 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.6

Gross State Product (Bil. $) 2280.4 2308.8 2340.1 2370.9 2405.0 2436.6 2467.3 2498.1 2530.2 2562.5 2593.5 26

Calif. (%Ch) 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.1

Real GSP (Bil. 2005$) 1909.8 1926.2 1942.6 1959.6 1979.6 1997.6 2013.6 2030.4 2048.2 2066.0 2081.4 20

Calif. (%Ch) 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4


Employment 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.5

Labor Force 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8

CA Unemployment Rate (%) 7.9 7.8 7.6 7.4 7.2 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.3 6.1 6.1


Total Nonfarm

California 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5

Mining 1.0 1.5 1.9 1.8 2.2 1.9 1.5 1.2 0.6 0.6 0.7

Construction 11.3 12.0 12.1 11.8 11.1 10.0 9.2 8.3 7.0 5.8 4.4

Manufacturing 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3

Nondurable Goods -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.3

Durable Goods 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3

Trans. Warehs. & Utility 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.6

Wholesale Trade 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.9

Retail Trade 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3

Financial Activities 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -0.8

Prof. and Business Services 4.3 4.2 3.6 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.2 2.9 2.5 2.3 2.2

Edu. & Health Services 1.3 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.1


Information 2.6 2.1 2.6 2.4 2.0 2.4 3.0 3.1 2.7 2.3 1.9

Federal Gov't. -1.0 -1.1 -1.8 -1.9 -2.0 -2.1 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 -1.6 -1.7

State & Local Gov't. 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4


Population (Ths.) 39240.5 39334.7 39429.2 39523.9 39618.8 39714.1 39809.6 39905.3 40000.9 40096.3 40191.6 402

(%Ch) 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

Net Migration (Ths.) 20.7 20.5 20.2 20.0 19.8 19.5 19.3 19.0 18.9 18.8 18.8

Housing

Housing Starts Tot. Private (Annual Rate, Th 131.4 140.5 146.9 151.3 153.7 154.9 157.0 156.9 156.6 157.9 159.6 1

Housing Starts Single Family 76.6 83.0 88.7 93.1 96.0 97.0 97.5 97.7 97.7 98.4 98.8 Housing Starts Multi-Family 54.9 57.6 58.2 58.2 57.7 57.9 59.5 59.3 58.9 59.5 60.8

Consumer Prices

(%Ch) 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1



CALIFORNIA TABLES

Table 3. Employment Quarterly

2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015

California Payroll Employment (Thousands)

Total Nonfarm 14439.1 14520.1 14560.0 14603.4 14692.3 14721.0 14776.0 14838.7 14907.6 14978.7 15050.7 1512

Manufacturing 1253.9 1253.2 1245.2 1247.4 1253.2 1249.7 1255.3 1263.2 1275.7 1274.5 1276.5 127Durable Goods 783.1 784.6 780.1 781.3 783.6 787.4 791.9 799.2 811.7 811.4 813.7 81

Wood Products 19.6 19.5 19.4 19.2 19.8 20.1 20.4 21.2 22.2 23.1 24.0 2

Computer & Electronics 270.9 270.9 269.9 270.6 272.2 271.7 271.9 271.7 278.5 275.5 273.7 27

Transportation Equipment 103.1 103.0 101.7 101.3 99.9 100.0 100.8 101.5 102.1 102.6 103.1 10

Nondurables 470.8 468.6 465.1 466.1 469.6 462.3 463.5 464.0 463.9 463.1 462.7 46

Foods 149.4 146.3 145.3 148.4 152.3 147.5 148.6 149.4 149.8 149.7 150.1 15

Non-Manufacturing 13185.3 13266.9 13314.9 13356.0 13439.2 13471.2 13520.7 13575.5 13631.9 13704.2 13774.2 1384

Mining 30.3 29.5 29.8 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 2

Construction 588.8 601.0 615.3 618.8 619.6 629.4 638.0 648.0 663.2 679.9 697.8 7

Transportation, Warehouse & Util . 488.6 492.0 493.0 491.7 498.2 500.7 501.9 504.7 507.2 511.0 514.9 5

Wholesale Trade 678.9 687.6 691.8 694.9 700.7 700.4 702.3 705.4 708.1 711.2 715.3 7

Retail Trade 1563.6 1575.8 1561.9 1559.9 1585.1 1581.6 1582.3 1585.2 1588.6 1591.2 1590.2 159

Information 429.9 434.0 434.9 433.5 432.0 434.5 436.5 436.1 434.4 438.0 436.9 44

Prof. & Bus. Services 2253.5 2263.7 2283.3 2297.2 2308.2 2313.3 2331.2 2354.4 2373.4 2396.9 2426.1 245

Admin. & Support 932.4 942.4 949.9 955.0 962.7 967.3 980.6 997.3 1011.3 1029.6 1054.1 107

Prof. Sci. & Tech. 1118.9 1118.3 1128.9 1137.4 1137.9 1139.0 1144.2 1151.7 1157.4 1163.5 1168.7 117

Mgmt. of Co. 202.2 203.0 204.5 204.8 207.6 207.1 206.3 205.5 204.7 203.8 203.2 20

Financial Activities 778.7 779.9 784.2 788.6 791.9 789.6 788.3 785.3 787.6 789.6 789.0 78

Real Estate & Rent 252.8 255.2 254.7 256.7 260.0 261.0 261.1 262.6 264.1 265.8 267.0 26

Finance & Insurance 525.9 524.7 529.5 531.9 531.9 528.6 527.2 522.7 523.5 523.9 522.0 52

Education & Health Service 1886.7 1903.7 1904.3 1911.5 1927.3 1937.5 1944.1 1951.4 1955.6 1960.4 1968.3 197

Education Services 339.2 343.4 343.2 346.0 351.7 351.5 350.3 349.5 348.1 346.1 344.7 34

Health Services 1547.5 1560.3 1561.1 1565.5 1575.6 1586.0 1593.8 1601.9 1607.5 1614.2 1623.7 163

Leisure & Hospitality 1609.5 1619.5 1643.8 1661.0 1677.3 1692.4 1698.0 1704.3 1711.4 1720.1 1726.0 17

Other Services 507.6 510.0 506.8 506.9 511.5 512.2 512.8 513.1 513.1 511.8 511.0 5

Government 2369.0 2370.2 2366.0 2362.3 2357.8 2349.9 2355.6 2357.9 2359.8 2364.6 2369.2 237

Federal Gov't. 248.7 249.3 246.6 244.4 242.6 241.9 244.8 245.6 245.7 244.9 245.1 24

State & Local Gov't. 2120.3 2120.9 2119.3 2117.9 2115.3 2108.0 2110.8 2112.3 2114.1 2119.6 2124.1 212



CALIFORNIA TABL

Table 3. Employment Quarterly

2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018

California Payroll Employment (Thousands)

Total Nonfarm 15200.9 15282.3 15352.6 15430.9 15510.1 15587.7 15654.2 15717.5 15776.8 15834.9 15883.2 1593

Manufacturing 1279.9 1282.8 1284.5 1284.4 1285.3 1286.0 1287.8 1289.3 1290.2 1290.8 1291.6 129Durable Goods 818.2 821.1 823.3 823.8 825.5 826.9 828.8 830.0 830.9 831.0 831.4 83

Wood Products 26.5 27.7 28.6 29.3 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.8 2

Computer & Electronics 270.4 268.9 267.2 265.7 264.9 264.4 265.6 266.9 268.3 269.7 271.2 27

Transportation Equipment 104.1 104.2 104.8 104.6 104.5 104.3 103.6 103.0 102.5 102.0 101.8 10

Nondurables 461.8 461.6 461.1 460.6 459.8 459.1 459.0 459.3 459.4 459.8 460.2 46

Foods 150.4 150.8 151.0 151.2 151.2 151.3 151.6 152.1 152.5 153.1 153.7 15

Non-Manufacturing 13920.9 13999.5 14068.1 14146.5 14224.7 14301.7 14366.4 14428.2 14486.6 14544.1 14591.6 1463

Mining 29.9 30.0 30.2 30.3 30.5 30.6 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.8 3

Construction 738.3 761.2 782.1 801.6 820.3 837.3 854.3 867.8 877.7 885.7 892.3 89

Transportation, Warehouse & Util . 522.7 527.4 531.8 536.1 540.5 544.7 548.9 552.8 556.4 559.9 563.5 56

Wholesale Trade 723.2 727.9 732.7 737.7 742.5 746.8 750.8 754.8 758.6 762.0 765.3 76

Retail Trade 1593.2 1595.3 1596.8 1599.4 1602.3 1605.4 1607.4 1609.7 1611.2 1612.3 1612.6 16

Information 445.7 447.3 448.2 450.8 454.4 458.0 461.8 464.7 466.9 468.5 470.7 47

Prof. & Bus. Services 2474.6 2496.5 2513.0 2533.6 2557.8 2579.4 2593.2 2606.5 2622.0 2638.0 2649.6 266

Admin. & Support 1090.9 1106.2 1118.6 1134.8 1154.5 1171.6 1181.3 1189.7 1201.9 1214.5 1224.0 123

Prof. Sci. & Tech. 1181.7 1188.8 1193.0 1197.5 1202.0 1206.7 1210.8 1215.8 1219.4 1223.1 1225.3 122

Mgmt. of Co. 202.0 201.5 201.4 201.3 201.2 201.1 201.1 200.9 200.7 200.4 200.3 19

Financial Activities 789.5 790.6 790.5 790.4 789.7 788.2 786.1 783.9 782.6 780.9 779.6 77

Real Estate & Rent 269.9 271.9 273.9 275.3 276.3 277.5 278.6 279.0 279.3 279.7 280.4 28

Finance & Insurance 519.6 518.7 516.6 515.1 513.4 510.7 507.6 504.9 503.3 501.3 499.2 49

Education & Health Service 1981.5 1991.1 2003.5 2016.9 2026.6 2037.9 2046.7 2059.2 2070.0 2082.5 2089.0 210

Education Services 341.9 340.8 340.0 339.3 339.0 338.8 339.3 339.4 339.7 339.8 340.4 34

Health Services 1639.6 1650.3 1663.5 1677.6 1687.6 1699.1 1707.5 1719.9 1730.3 1742.6 1748.6 176

Leisure & Hospitality 1734.9 1740.4 1743.7 1749.0 1755.1 1762.6 1769.3 1774.7 1781.0 1786.9 1793.4 179

Other Services 509.4 508.5 508.3 507.9 507.7 507.5 508.7 509.1 509.6 509.7 510.1 50

Government 2378.1 2383.4 2387.4 2392.7 2397.5 2403.2 2408.6 2414.3 2419.9 2427.0 2434.8 244

Federal Gov't. 243.2 242.3 240.6 239.4 238.2 237.1 236.4 235.3 234.3 233.3 232.3 23

State & Local Gov't. 2134.9 2141.0 2146.9 2153.3 2159.2 2166.1 2172.2 2179.0 2185.6 2193.7 2202.5 221


16/68



CALIFORNIA TABL

Table 5. Personal Income - Quarterl y

2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015

Billions Current Dollars

Personal Income 1764.5 1833.1 1777.7 1794.0 1814.1 1831.8 1857.5 1878.5 1901.6 1924.6 1950.7 197

Wages & Salaries 895.7 939.1 908.8 915.9 922.2 931.3 940.2 951.7 963.5 975.5 988.0 100Other Labor Income 221.8 225.5 222.2 223.2 223.6 223.8 226.9 228.5 231.2 234.1 237.9 24

Nonfarm 139.7 143.1 145.9 147.8 149.4 150.6 152.6 155.1 156.7 158.7 160.9 16

Farm 11.3 11.1 9.7 8.6 9.8 10.1 10.1 9.4 9.4 9.3 9.3

Property Income 340.6 359.9 347.1 357.6 365.6 372.9 379.3 384.8 392.0 398.2 403.9 40

Transfer Payments 272.9 277.0 279.5 277.3 280.2 281.5 290.5 292.5 294.1 295.7 303.0 30

Bill ions 2005 $

Personal Income 1533.0 1586.2 1534.1 1548.6 1558.5 1571.0 1587.7 1599.1 1612.6 1626.5 1641.9 165

Wages & Salaries 778.2 812.6 784.3 790.6 792.3 798.7 803.7 810.2 817.1 824.3 831.6 83

Other Labor Income 192.7 195.1 191.7 192.7 192.1 191.9 194.0 194.5 196.1 197.8 200.2 20

Nonfarm 121.3 123.8 125.9 127.6 128.3 129.2 130.5 132.0 132.9 134.1 135.4 13

Farm 9.8 9.6 8.4 7.4 8.4 8.6 8.6 8.0 7.9 7.9 7.8

Property Income 296.0 311.4 299.5 308.7 314.1 319.8 324.2 327.6 332.4 336.5 340.0 34


New Passenger Car & Truck Reg. 1520.8 1619.6 1629.7 1719.4 1746.0 1758.7 1767.6 1789.7 1811.1 1838.1 1859.8 188

Retail Sales (Billions $) 491.6 504.3 499.7 503.7 509.9 511.9 515.5 521.2 527.4 532.7 537.5 54

Real Retail Sales (Bill ions 2005$) 427.1 436.4 431.2 434.8 438.1 439.0 440.6 443.7 447.3 450.2 452.4 45



CALIFORNIA TABLES

Table 5. Personal Income - Quarterly

2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018


Personal Income 1996.9 2021.3 2053.2 2080.2 2108.4 2138.0 2171.3 2201.3 2231.0 2260.6 2292.0 232

Wages & Salaries 1014.2 1027.2 1040.6 1053.8 1067.4 1081.0 1095.3 1108.8 1122.2 1135.7 1149.3 116Other Labor Income 243.2 246.5 251.2 254.0 257.5 261.1 266.0 268.9 272.4 275.9 280.5 28

Nonfarm 166.4 168.8 171.3 174.2 176.0 177.9 179.3 181.5 182.7 184.8 186.2 18

Farm 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.2 9.3 9.3 9.4

Property Income 412.9 418.6 425.6 433.5 442.4 452.8 463.7 474.2 484.5 493.7 503.8 51


Bill ions 2005 $

Personal Income 1667.2 1680.3 1698.5 1713.4 1729.4 1746.2 1765.3 1781.7 1797.6 1813.2 1829.1 184

Wages & Salaries 846.7 853.9 860.9 868.0 875.6 882.9 890.5 897.4 904.2 910.9 917.1 92

Other Labor Income 203.1 204.9 207.8 209.2 211.2 213.2 216.3 217.6 219.5 221.3 223.9 22

Nonfarm 138.9 140.3 141.7 143.5 144.4 145.3 145.8 146.9 147.2 148.2 148.6 15

Farm 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5

Property Income 344.8 348.0 352.1 357.1 362.9 369.8 377.0 383.8 390.4 396.0 402.1 40


New Passenger Car & Truck Reg. 1902.7 1931.8 1960.1 1970.6 1982.9 2008.4 2015.8 2026.4 2024.2 2026.2 2018.4 201

Retail Sales (Billions $) 550.1 556.3 562.4 568.6 574.9 581.6 586.6 593.0 599.7 606.4 611.2 61

Real Retail Sales (Bill ions 2005$) 459.2 462.5 465.3 468.3 471.6 475.0 476.9 480.0 483.2 486.4 487.8 49



CALIFORNIA TABL

Table 6. Personal Income - Annual

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20


Personal Income 1499.5 1564.4 1596.3 1536.4 1579.1 1683.2 1768.0 1804.4 1890.6 1985.6 2095.0 2216.0 2335Wages & Salaries 791.5 834.4 842.9 799.5 814.5 849.7 899.7 919.5 957.7 1007.6 1060.7 1115.5 1169

Other Labor Income 194.6 200.7 204.8 197.1 203.9 219.1 222.7 223.2 230.2 241.9 255.9 270.8 285

Nonfarm 146.6 131.1 127.7 123.0 124.3 133.1 140.1 148.4 155.8 165.0 174.8 182.1 189

Farm 4.9 7.5 5.2 5.7 6.3 10.5 10.7 9.5 9.5 9.3 9.3 9.3 9

Property Income 301.4 321.4 330.2 292.1 291.1 323.9 343.8 360.8 388.6 410.9 438.6 479.0 516

Transfer Payments 181.6 192.1 210.3 239.9 261.0 261.3 269.6 279.7 293.2 305.5 320.6 333.8 348

Billions 2005 $

Personal Income 1460.3 1486.4 1471.8 1417.6 1433.1 1492.0 1538.6 1553.0 1606.5 1661.0 1721.9 1789.4 185

Wages & Salaries 770.9 792.8 777.2 737.6 739.2 753.2 783.0 791.5 813.8 842.9 871.8 900.8 926

Other Labor Income 189.5 190.7 188.8 181.9 185.1 194.2 193.8 192.1 195.6 202.4 210.4 218.7 226

Nonfarm 142.8 124.5 117.8 113.4 112.8 118.0 121.9 127.7 132.4 138.0 143.7 147.0 150

Farm 4.7 7.1 4.8 5.3 5.7 9.3 9.3 8.2 8.1 7.8 7.6 7.5 7

Property Income 293.5 305.4 304.4 269.6 264.2 287.0 299.2 310.5 330.2 343.8 360.5 386.8 409

Transfer Payments 176.9 182.5 193.9 221.3 236.8 231.6 234.6 240.7 249.2 255.6 263.5 269.6 276

New Passenger Car & Truck Reg. 2086.8 1871.1 1401.3 1036.2 1105.8 1223.0 1529.2 1713.5 1801.7 1893.7 1980.5 2023.1 2017

Retail Sales (Billions $) 449.1 455.0 442.9 407.2 427.5 461.5 489.2 506.3 524.2 546.8 571.9 596.4 621

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2005$) 437.4 432.3 408.4 375.7 387.9 409.1 425.8 435.8 445.4 457.4 470.0 481.6 492


20/68

C

HARTS



CALIFORNIA CHAR

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

1997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018

California Real Personal Income

(percent change from one year ago)

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

1997 199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018

Californ ia Real Gross State Product


0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

California and U.S. Unemployment Rates(percent)

CA Unemployment Rate (%)



CALIFORNIA CHARTS

12,000

12,500

13,000

13,500

14,000

14,500

15,000

15,500

16,000

1997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018

California Total Nonfarm Employment(Thousands)

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018

California Construction Employment(Thouands)

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

1997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018

California Manufacturing Employment(Thousands)



CALIFORNIA CHAR

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

199719981999 2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018

California Trade, Transpor tation, and UtilitiesEmployment (Thousands)

700

750

800

850

900

950

1,000

1997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018

California Financial Activities Employment(Thouands)

1,700

1,900

2,100

2,300

2,500

2,700

1997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018

California Professional and BusinessEmployment (Thousands)



CALIFORNIA CHARTS

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

1997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018

California Education and Health ServicesEmployment (Thousands)

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

19971998 1999 2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018

California Information Employment (Thousands)

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

2,300

2,400

1997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018

California State and Local GovernmentEmployment (Thousands)



CALIFORNIA CHAR

200

210

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

19971998 1999 2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018

California Federal Government Employment(Thousands)

0

50

100

150

200

250

1997 199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018

California Housing Starts(Thousands)

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

1,900

2,100

2,300

2,500

199719981999 200020012002 200320042005 200620072008 200920102011 201220132014 201520162017 2018

California New Passenger & Light TruckRegistrations (Thousands)


26/68

M

ETROS



F r e s n o M S A

Nonfarm employment in the Fresno MetropolitanStatistical Area (MSA) will continue to grow at a steady

rate of 2.0% for 2015. Te rst quarter of 2015 is expectedto have a 1.8% increase in employment followed by 2.0%growth in the second quarter. Te leading sectors in jobgrowth for 2015 are predicted to be the Construction andMining sector and the Professional and Business Servicessector with 11.4% and 4.2% increases, respectively.Employment is expected to increase at a modest rate in allsectors with the exception of the Other Services sector andthe Federal Government, which will suffer job losses.

Real personal income in Fresno is expected to grow3.5% in 2015 to $29.8 Billion. 2016 is anticipated to brin

additional 3.9% growth, increasing real personal income$30.9 Billion.

Te Fresno MSAs population will increase 1.2% in 201and 1.3% in 2016. Along with the increase in employmencomes an increase in the labor force in 2015 of 1.0%. Telabor force is projected to maintain a 1.2% growth for 20and 2017. Te unemployment rate in 2015 is expected todecrease to 12.1% from 12.8% in 2014. Unemploymentis expected to continue decreasing every year for theforeseeable future, declining to a 9.9% in 2018.

SHORT TERM OUTLOOK

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Con. Mfg. TTU Info. Fin. Bus. EHS Leis. OTS Gov

Fresno Employment Mix Relative to Californi a, 2011(California = 100)

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Fresno Real Personal Income


220

240

260

280

300

320

340

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201

Fresno Payroll Employment(Thousands)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Fresno and California Unemployment Rates(percent)

Unemployment Rate (%)



28/68


29/68Universit y of the Pacific Business Forecasting Center

METRO SUMMARY - FRES

Quarterly Outlook for Fresno

January 2014 Forecast

2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018

Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $)

Total Personal Income 35.8 36.2 36.8 37.3 37.9 38.4 39.0 39.6 40.2 40.7 41.3 4

Pct Chg Year Ago 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.8

Wages and Salaries 15.4 15.6 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.5 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.3Nonwage Income 20.4 20.7 21.1 21.4 21.7 22.1 22.5 22.9 23.3 23.6 24.0 2

Real Personal Income (2005$) 29.9 30.1 30.5 30.8 31.1 31.4 31.7 32.1 32.4 32.7 33.0 3

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1 3.9

Per Capita Income (Ths.) 36.6 36.9 37.4 37.8 38.2 38.7 39.2 39.6 40.0 40.5 40.9 4

Real Per Capita Income (2005$) 30.5 30.7 31.0 31.1 31.3 31.6 31.8 32.1 32.3 32.5 32.7 3

Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 51.5 51.9 52.2 52.5 52.9 53.2 53.6 54.0 54.4 54.8 55.2 5

Pct Chg Year Ago 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 3.0 2.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Non-Farm Employment 296.6 298.4 299.9 301.6 303.2 304.9 306.4 307.9 309.3 310.8 312.0 3

Pct Chg Year Ago 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9

Manufacturing 22.3 22.3 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.5 22.5 22.6 22.6 22.6 2

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5Nonmanufacturing 274.3 276.0 277.5 279.2 280.8 282.4 283.9 285.4 286.7 288.2 289.4 2

Pct Chg Year Ago 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0

Construction & Mining 15.2 15.7 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.3 17.7 18.0 18.2 18.4 18.5

Pct Chg Year Ago 11.9 12.6 12.6 12.3 11.5 10.2 9.5 8.5 7.2 6.1 4.7

Trade, Trans, & Utilities 59.3 59.6 59.8 60.1 60.4 60.7 61.0 61.3 61.5 61.8 62.0 6

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6

Wholesale Trade 13.6 13.7 13.8 13.9 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.4 14.5

Retail Trade 33.3 33.4 33.5 33.6 33.7 33.8 33.8 33.9 34.0 34.1 34.1

Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 12.3 12.4 12.6 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.4

Information 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7

Pct Chg Year Ago 2.7 2.3 2.9 2.6 2.3 2.6 3.1 3.7 3.1 2.5 2.2

Financial Activities 12.7 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 -0.1 -0.2 -0.5 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5Prof & Business Services 33.7 34.1 34.3 34.6 34.9 35.2 35.5 35.7 36.0 36.4 36.6

Pct Chg Year Ago 4.3 4.4 3.9 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.2

Educ & Health Services 43.8 44.0 44.4 44.7 45.0 45.3 45.5 45.8 46.1 46.5 46.7 4

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.5


Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9

Other Services 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.9

Pct Chg Year Ago -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.5

Federal Government 10.1 10.0 9.9 9.9 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.7 9.7 9.6 9.6

Pct Chg Year Ago -1.6 -1.5 -2.4 -2.4 -2.3 -2.3 -1.8 -1.8 -1.7 -1.6 -1.7

State & Local Government 55.1 55.3 55.5 55.8 56.0 56.2 56.4 56.6 56.8 57.1 57.3

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7

Other Economic Indicators

Population (Ths.) 978.0 981.2 984.4 987.6 990.7 993.8 996.9 1000.0 1003.1 1006.1 1009.2 10

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2

Labor Force (Ths.) 448.7 450.0 451.4 452.8 454.1 455.3 456.9 458.3 459.7 460.9 462.1 46

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1

Unemployment Rate (%) 12.0 11.8 11.6 11.3 11.1 10.9 10.7 10.5 10.3 10.1 10.0

Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 4300 4506 4636 4700 4728 4693 4582 4513 4445 4419 4443 4

Single-Family 3470 3620 3723 3761 3769 3705 3557 3465 3373 3300 3220 3

Multifamily 830 886 914 939 959 988 1025 1047 1072 1119 1224 1



METRO SUMMARY - FRESNO

Annual Outlook for Fresno


2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income 25.8 27.1 27.9 28.1 28.9 30.5 31.8 32.4 33.9 35.6 37.6 39.9 42.1

Pct Chg Year Ago 6.5 5.2 2.8 0.7 2.7 5.9 4.0 1.9 4.6 5.1 5.7 6.0 5.6

Wages and Salaries 12.6 13.3 13.7 13.2 13.2 13.5 14.0 14.2 14.6 15.3 16.0 16.8 17.6Nonwage Income 13.2 13.8 14.2 14.9 15.7 17.1 17.8 18.2 19.3 20.3 21.6 23.1 24.5

Real Personal Income (2005$) 25.1 25.8 25.7 25.9 26.2 27.1 27.6 27.8 28.8 29.8 30.9 32.2 33.4

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.7 2.6 -0.2 0.7 1.1 3.4 2.1 0.8 3.3 3.5 3.9 4.2 3.7

Per Capita Income (Ths.) 29.1 30.2 30.6 30.4 30.9 32.4 33.5 33.8 35.1 36.4 38.0 39.8 41.6

Real Per Capita Income (2005$) 28.4 28.7 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.8 29.1 29.1 29.8 30.5 31.3 32.2 32.9

Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 41.5 43.3 45.0 45.8 46.8 47.7 49.1 49.2 50.1 51.4 52.7 54.2 55.8

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.8 4.4 4.0 1.7 2.3 1.9 2.9 0.3 1.8 2.5 2.6 2.8 3.0


Total Non-Farm Employment 302.6 306.4 303.0 286.3 279.5 281.1 282.9 286.2 289.9 295.8 302.4 308.6 313.8

Pct Chg Year Ago 2.8 1.2 -1.1 -5.5 -2.4 0.6 0.6 1.2 1.3 2.0 2.2 2.1 1.7

Manufacturing 27.5 28.1 27.1 25.1 24.1 23.8 23.4 22.4 21.9 22.2 22.4 22.5 22.7

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 2.1 -3.5 -7.5 -3.7 -1.5 -1.3 -4.5 -1.9 1.3 0.7 0.6 0.7Nonmanufacturing 275.1 278.3 275.9 261.3 255.4 257.3 259.5 263.8 268.0 273.6 280.0 286.1 291.1

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.0 1.2 -0.8 -5.3 -2.2 0.8 0.8 1.7 1.6 2.1 2.3 2.2 1.8

Construction & Mining 23.4 21.2 18.0 13.9 12.2 11.7 12.3 12.9 13.5 15.0 16.8 18.1 18.7

Pct Chg Year Ago 7.5 -9.2 -15.1 -22.8 -11.9 -4.0 5.2 4.8 4.5 11.4 11.6 7.8 3.5

Trade, Trans, & Utilities 58.4 60.4 59.2 55.6 55.1 57.3 57.5 58.4 58.3 59.2 60.3 61.4 62.2

Pct Chg Year Ago 2.3 3.3 -2.0 -6.0 -0.8 4.0 0.3 1.6 -0.2 1.5 1.9 1.8 1.4

Wholesale Trade 13.2 13.5 12.9 11.8 11.5 12.5 12.7 13.2 13.2 13.5 13.9 14.3 14.6

Retail Trade 35.2 36.3 35.4 33.1 32.8 33.4 33.2 33.2 33.2 33.3 33.6 34.0 34.2

Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 10.0 10.6 11.0 10.6 10.8 11.4 11.6 12.0 11.9 12.3 12.7 13.1 13.5

Information 4.2 4.2 4.7 4.1 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.7

Pct Chg Year Ago -3.2 -0.6 13.4 -13.0 -17.1 -3.3 6.7 -0.5 -2.1 1.4 2.6 3.1 2.0

Financial Activities 15.5 15.3 14.8 13.8 13.4 13.0 12.8 12.9 12.7 12.7 12.8 12.7 12.7

Pct Chg Year Ago 5.5 -1.4 -3.5 -6.7 -2.9 -3.1 -1.4 0.8 -1.4 0.4 0.4 -0.5 -0.4Prof & Business Services 29.5 30.0 30.7 28.1 26.7 27.2 27.9 30.3 32.2 33.5 34.7 35.9 37.0

Pct Chg Year Ago 2.5 1.6 2.2 -8.2 -5.0 1.7 2.5 8.7 6.4 4.2 3.6 3.3 2.9

Educ & Health Services 37.5 38.9 40.1 40.3 40.8 41.9 42.9 42.4 42.9 43.7 44.8 46.0 47.1

Pct Chg Year Ago 2.4 3.8 3.1 0.5 1.3 2.8 2.3 -1.1 1.1 1.9 2.7 2.6 2.5

Leisure & Hospitality 28.1 28.2 28.0 26.6 26.8 27.1 28.0 28.9 29.7 30.1 30.6 31.1 31.7

Pct Chg Year Ago 8.6 0.3 -0.8 -4.8 0.7 1.2 3.4 3.1 2.7 1.4 1.5 1.9 1.7

Other Services 10.9 11.0 10.6 10.2 10.0 10.1 10.5 10.7 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.9

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.5 0.7 -3.0 -4.5 -1.8 1.4 4.2 1.5 1.3 -0.2 -0.3 0.4 0.3

Federal Government 9.8 9.6 9.7 9.8 10.7 10.2 10.2 9.9 10.2 10.1 9.9 9.7 9.5

Pct Chg Year Ago -0.6 -2.1 2.0 0.8 8.8 -4.7 -0.1 -2.1 2.3 -0.8 -2.3 -1.7 -1.7

State & Local Government 57.8 59.6 60.2 58.9 56.4 55.6 53.9 53.9 54.4 55.0 55.9 56.7 57.7

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 3.1 1.0 -2.2 -4.3 -1.4 -2.9 0.0 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.8


Population (Ths.) 885.4 897.7 911.0 922.9 933.6 941.7 948.8 956.1 965.2 976.6 989.2 1001.5 1013.8

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.2

Labor Force (Ths.) 411.6 419.5 430.2 435.2 440.6 443.8 442.4 439.6 443.5 448.1 453.4 458.9 463.8

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0 1.9 2.6 1.2 1.3 0.7 -0.3 -0.6 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.1

Unemployment Rate (%) 8.0 8.5 10.5 15.0 16.8 16.6 15.2 13.1 12.8 12.1 11.2 10.4 9.9

Total Housing Starts 5290 4491 2696 2271 2177 1895 1892 2323 3046 4101 4689 4490 4566

Single-Family 4219 3649 2285 2169 1902 1665 1583 1972 2567 3307 3739 3424 3212

Multifamily 1071 842 411 102 276 229 310 351 479 794 950 1066 1354



M e r c e d M S A

Merced MSAs employment will increase 3.1% in 2014and is expected to decrease slightly in 2015 with a 2.4%growth. Job growth dropped slightly in the fourth quarterof 2014 which had a 3.1% increase, and is expected todecline slightly more with a 2.4% growth in the rst quarterof 2015. Te sectors with the strongest growth in jobs arethe Construction and Mining sector and the Professionaland Business Services sector with job increases of 14.4%and 5.4%, respectively. Growth is expected in all sectors forMerced in 2015.

Real personal income in Merced is expected to increase to$7.5 billion dollars in 2015, a 3.3% increase from 2014 real

personal income of $7.3 Billion. Tis increase in income expected to continue until it reaches $8.4 Billion in 2018

Te population in Merced is expected to raise 1.4% in2015 and 1.5% in 2016. Te labor force growth is expectto jump to a 1.6% growth in 2015 from a 0.8% growth i2016 and is expected to maintain the 1.6% growth for thfollowing two years. Despite the increase in the labor forthe unemployment rate will still decrease to 13.3% from14.1% in 2014. Te unemployment rate will continue todecrease, reaching 10.8% in 2018.

SHORT TERM OUTLOOK

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200


Merced Employment Mix Relative t o California, 2011(California = 100)

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Merced Real Personal Income


40

45

50

55

60

65

70

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Merced Payroll Employment(Thousands)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Merced and California Unemployment Rates(percent)




32/6832 Californ ia & Metro Forecast - April 2011

METRO SUMMARY - MERCED

Quarterly Outlook for Merced


2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015


Total Personal Income 8.0 8.3 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.8

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.9 7.4 2.2 2.5 2.1 -0.1 4.2 5.0 5.4 5.4 5.1

Wages and Salaries 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9Nonwage Income 5.4 5.6 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.9 6.0

Real Personal Income (2005$) 7.0 7.2 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.4

Pct Chg Year Ago 2.2 5.6 0.9 1.4 0.9 -1.0 3.2 3.6 4.0 3.9 3.5




Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0 5.5 -1.0 0.5 -0.7 -2.4 0.6 1.3 2.2 2.1 2.4



Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 2.7 2.7 1.7 1.6 0.9 2.1 3.4 3.7 3.1 2.4

Manufacturing 8.4 8.6 8.8 8.6 8.4 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.6 8.6 8.7

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 3.5 4.4 2.0 -0.9 -3.0 -3.9 -0.9 3.0 2.6 2.5Nonmanufacturing 49.0 49.9 49.7 49.5 50.0 50.7 51.3 51.6 51.9 52.3 52.6 5

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 2.5 2.4 1.7 2.0 1.5 3.1 4.2 3.8 3.2 2.4


Pct Chg Year Ago 4.1 9.2 19.2 3.4 3.8 2.6 -7.2 7.6 10.5 11.9 13.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.7 12.8 12.8 12.9

Pct Chg Year Ago 2.4 4.8 4.3 3.0 2.0 1.4 1.8 2.6 1.8 1.8 1.8

Wholesale Trade 2.4 2.5 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

Retail Trade 7.5 7.4 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.7 7.7 7.7


Information 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.1 0.5 -0.3 -0.3 -2.4 1.6 5.8 -0.8 0.6 0.6 -0.8


Pct Chg Year Ago 6.8 7.7 10.8 -1.0 0.0 -0.9 -4.6 1.9 0.6 1.3 1.3Prof & Business Services 4.3 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.1

Pct Chg Year Ago -3.5 -1.0 2.2 4.1 7.7 6.5 8.9 7.3 5.8 4.8 5.2

Educ & Health Services 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.7

Pct Chg Year Ago -0.6 0.2 0.3 1.4 2.1 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.0 2.0


Pct Chg Year Ago 2.3 2.2 2.6 3.2 6.4 6.6 7.8 6.8 3.8 2.5 2.5

Other Services 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.1 -4.3 -5.0 -2.8 1.1 -3.4 -1.6 -3.0 -5.7 1.5 1.5


Pct Chg Year Ago -0.5 -3.7 -4.4 -5.0 -9.3 -1.8 -0.2 3.3 1.7 1.5 0.8


Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 2.7 0.3 0.5 -0.1 -1.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 3.9 1.4


Population (Ths.) 263.0 263.7 264.6 265.3 266.1 266.9 267.9 268.7 269.5 270.5 271.5 2

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4

Labor Force (Ths.) 111.3 112.2 113.1 113.4 110.7 111.4 112.3 112.7 113.2 113.8 114.2 11

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.7 1.0 1.9 2.3 -0.5 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 2.2 2.2 1.7

Unemployment Rate (%) 16.9 16.5 16.0 14.8 14.4 14.5 14.2 14.1 14.0 13.9 13.6 1

Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 152 358 209 106 109 115 177 276 346 420 555

Single-Family 98 105 94 91 97 107 159 246 305 367 485

Multifamily 54 254 115 15 12 9 17 30 41 54 70


33/68



METRO SUMMARY - MERCED

Annual Outlook for Merced


2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018



Pct Chg Year Ago 4.1 12.8 -2.4 0.0 5.3 8.3 5.3 1.7 5.0 4.9 5.5 5.9 5.9



Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 10.0 -5.3 0.0 3.6 5.8 3.4 0.5 3.7 3.3 3.6 4.0 3.9




Pct Chg Year Ago 7.4 3.6 5.7 3.1 -1.2 -0.7 1.7 -0.9 1.6 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.7



Pct Chg Year Ago -0.2 1.4 -1.8 -4.2 1.3 0.9 1.5 1.7 3.1 2.4 2.4 2.3 1.9

Manufacturing 9.7 9.3 9.3 8.6 8.3 8.2 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.7 8.7 8.8 8.9

Pct Chg Year Ago -11.8 -4.5 0.3 -8.0 -3.0 -0.9 2.9 0.6 0.2 1.6 0.8 0.6 0.7Nonmanufacturing 48.4 49.6 48.6 46.9 47.9 48.4 49.0 50.0 51.8 53.1 54.5 55.9 57.1

Pct Chg Year Ago 2.6 2.6 -2.2 -3.5 2.1 1.2 1.3 1.9 3.6 2.5 2.7 2.6 2.1


Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 -12.1 -24.9 -32.0 -2.6 -2.1 7.9 7.2 5.7 14.4 15.5 11.8 5.8


Pct Chg Year Ago 4.2 5.4 -2.3 -1.5 -1.1 3.5 3.4 2.7 2.0 1.8 2.0 1.8 1.5

Wholesale Trade 1.8 1.9 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7

Retail Trade 7.5 7.8 7.6 7.3 7.2 7.4 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.9 8.0


Information 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

Pct Chg Year Ago -18.4 -7.1 -11.9 -5.9 1.4 -29.5 -7.1 -0.3 1.6 1.0 3.0 3.7 2.5


Pct Chg Year Ago 5.0 -2.9 -4.7 -12.6 1.5 -3.6 2.5 2.2 -0.2 0.9 0.9 -0.9 -1.4Prof & Business Services 4.4 4.6 4.4 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.7

Pct Chg Year Ago 11.4 5.4 -4.4 -7.7 3.7 4.7 -1.2 5.1 6.7 5.4 4.3 3.9 2.7


Pct Chg Year Ago -1.4 4.7 0.7 0.1 5.5 6.0 1.4 1.6 2.5 2.1 2.7 2.9 2.7


Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 4.2 0.7 -6.3 -3.5 2.7 1.5 4.7 5.2 2.2 1.5 1.9 1.5

Other Services 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4

Pct Chg Year Ago -10.4 2.2 -6.3 -6.9 -0.1 1.4 -0.3 -2.5 -2.2 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.1


Pct Chg Year Ago -7.0 9.5 1.2 -0.1 5.2 -5.8 -5.1 -5.1 1.6 0.3 -1.0 -0.8 -0.8


Pct Chg Year Ago 4.9 3.0 2.6 1.9 5.3 -1.2 0.3 -0.1 4.7 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.3


Population (Ths.) 245.8 248.7 250.7 253.1 257.2 260.2 262.7 265.7 269.1 272.9 277.0 281.6 286.3

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.9 1.6 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.6

Labor Force (Ths.) 98.3 100.0 102.3 105.7 109.3 110.5 111.3 112.1 113.0 114.8 116.7 118.6 120.8

Pct Chg Year Ago -0.7 1.8 2.3 3.3 3.5 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.9


Total Housing Starts 2451 856 363 120 119 127 175 135 305 793 1116.8 1121 1108.6

Single-Family 2380 837 283 119 116 99 77 97 269 706 1006.9 1005 991.2

Multifamily 71 19 80 2 3 28 98 37 36 87 110.0 116.2 117.4



M o d e s t o M S A

Employment in the Modesto MSA is expected to grow2.1% in 2016, after a 1.8% increase in 2015. Job growth isexpected to maintain a steady 1.8-1.9% increase throughthe fourth quarter of 2015 and increase to 2.0% the rstquarter of 2016. For 2016, the Construction and Miningsector and Education and Health Services sector arepredicted to lead in job growth with an expected increase of12.0% and 2.4% respectively. Moderate growth is expectedin all sectors with the exception of the Financial Activitiessector, Professional and Business sector, and the FederalGovernment.

Real personal income is expected to increase at a healthy

rate of 3.8% in 2015 to $17.3 Billion. It is predicted that personal income will increase 4.0% for 2017 and slightlydecrease in 2018 with a growth of 3.5%.

Population in Modesto will increase in 2016 by 1.3%and will continue to increase at a steady rate for the yearsto come. Modestos labor force is expected to grow at amodest rate of 1.3% for 2016 and it is anticipated to steaddecline through the foreseeable forecast, reaching a1.0%growth in 2018. Unemployment in Modesto will declinefrom 11.3% in 2015 to 10.6% in 2016. It is projected thaunemployment will continue its steady decrease until itreaches 9.4% in 2018.

SHORT TERM OUTLOOK

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200


Modesto Employment Mix Relative to California, 2011(California = 100)

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Modesto Real Personal Income


100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201

Modesto Payroll Employment(Thousands)

3%

5%

7%

9%

11%

13%

15%

17%

19%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Modesto and Califo rnia Unemployment Rates(percent)





METRO SUMMARY - MODESTO

Quarterly Outlook for Modesto


2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015



Pct Chg Year Ago 3.2 6.8 1.8 2.0 2.0 0.3 4.4 5.0 5.3 5.2 5.0

Wages and Salaries 7.1 7.4 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.7Nonwage Income 10.6 10.9 10.7 10.8 11.0 11.1 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.7 11.8 1

Real Personal Income (2005$) 15.5 15.9 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.8 15.9 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.5 1

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 5.0 0.4 0.9 0.9 -0.6 3.5 3.6 3.9 3.7 3.4




Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 5.8 0.1 -0.3 -1.8 -3.4 -0.5 1.0 2.8 2.7 3.0



Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 1.6 0.7 1.0 2.4 2.6 3.4 3.2 2.5 1.9 1.9

Manufacturing 20.6 20.8 20.6 20.9 20.7 20.6 20.7 20.9 21.1 21.1 21.1 2

Pct Chg Year Ago -0.8 -1.9 -1.3 -0.1 0.4 -0.6 0.6 0.0 2.1 2.2 1.9Nonmanufacturing 127.8 128.8 128.5 129.3 131.3 132.8 133.5 134.0 134.6 135.3 136.0 13

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 2.2 1.0 1.2 2.7 3.1 3.9 3.7 2.6 1.9 1.8


Pct Chg Year Ago 11.8 11.7 4.4 -0.7 -10.9 -8.4 -3.7 0.7 9.1 8.3 9.8


Pct Chg Year Ago 3.2 3.5 3.4 3.5 4.5 4.4 4.9 4.5 2.6 1.8 1.0

Wholesale Trade 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.0

Retail Trade 20.8 21.1 21.1 21.2 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 2


Information 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9

Pct Chg Year Ago -6.4 -9.4 -3.6 -15.4 -13.2 -9.1 -9.5 0.2 0.2 -0.4 -2.4


Pct Chg Year Ago 0.5 1.0 1.4 0.7 -0.7 -1.4 -2.0 -0.9 -0.4 0.1 0.4Prof & Business Services 12.8 12.8 12.7 12.9 13.3 13.6 13.7 13.8 13.9 14.1 14.3

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.4 2.5 -0.4 -0.4 4.0 6.2 8.0 7.5 5.0 3.8 4.2

Educ & Health Services 23.8 24.0 23.9 24.0 24.2 24.4 24.5 24.6 24.7 24.8 24.9 2

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.7 0.9 -0.4 0.2 1.4 1.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 1.5 1.6


Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 2.5 2.1 2.8 7.2 8.2 7.7 6.4 3.6 1.9 1.9

Other Services 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 0.5 1.0 2.2 5.0 7.9 6.9 4.4 2.1 -0.2 -0.2


Pct Chg Year Ago -10.9 -11.4 -11.6 -14.8 -5.2 -4.2 -4.7 0.1 -0.8 -1.4 -0.3

State & Local Government 24.3 24.6 24.4 24.7 25.1 25.1 25.1 25.1 25.2 25.3 25.3 2

Pct Chg Year Ago -1.0 0.9 -0.8 0.7 3.1 2.1 2.9 1.9 0.4 0.8 0.9


Population (Ths.) 522.7 523.6 524.6 525.6 526.8 528.1 529.5 530.9 532.4 533.8 535.2 53

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1

Labor Force (Ths.) 239.3 239.0 238.7 237.2 236.6 236.7 239.6 240.5 241.5 242.6 243.2 24

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -1.0 -1.1 -1.0 0.4 1.4 2.1 2.5 1.5

Unemployment Rate (%) 15.1 14.6 14.1 12.9 12.5 12.3 12.2 12.0 11.9 11.7 11.5 1


Single-Family 241 253 269 246 299 261 273 444 640 870 1119 1

Multifamily 82 7 23 18 59 52 63 90 126 190 269



METRO SUMMARY - MODES

Quarterly Outlook for Modesto


2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018



Pct Chg Year Ago 4.9 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.7 5.6

Wages and Salaries 7.9 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.9 9.0Nonwage Income 12.1 12.3 12.5 12.7 12.8 13.0 13.3 13.4 13.6 13.8 14.0

Real Personal Income (2005$) 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.2 17.4 17.5 17.7 17.9 18.1 18.2 18.4

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.6




Pct Chg Year Ago 2.9 2.8 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.3



Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8

Manufacturing 21.2 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.5 21.5 2

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4Nonmanufacturing 137.3 138.1 138.9 139.8 140.7 141.5 142.3 143.0 143.7 144.5 145.1 14

Pct Chg Year Ago 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0


Pct Chg Year Ago 12.0 12.6 12.7 12.5 11.9 10.7 10.0 8.9 7.7 6.5 5.3


Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5

Wholesale Trade 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.5

Retail Trade 21.5 21.6 21.6 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.8 21.8 21.9 21.9 21.9 2


Information 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9

Pct Chg Year Ago -0.5 -0.7 -0.2 0.2 0.2 0.8 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.0 0.8


Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3Prof & Business Services 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.7

Pct Chg Year Ago 4.4 4.4 3.9 3.6 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.2 2.8 2.6 2.5

Educ & Health Services 25.0 25.2 25.4 25.5 25.7 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.3 26.5 26.6

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.5


Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.8

Other Services 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.3

Pct Chg Year Ago -0.8 -0.6 -0.6 -0.4 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.4


Pct Chg Year Ago 0.3 -0.1 -0.5 -0.9 -1.3 -1.7 -1.6 -1.6 -1.5 -1.5 -1.6


Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8


Population (Ths.) 538.1 539.6 541.4 543.2 545.1 547.0 548.8 550.7 552.5 554.3 556.2 5

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3

Labor Force (Ths.) 244.7 245.6 246.5 247.3 248.1 248.8 249.5 250.2 250.8 251.5 252.1 25

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1

Unemployment Rate (%) 11.3 11.1 11.0 10.7 10.5 10.3 10.1 9.9 9.7 9.5 9.5


Single-Family 1752 2010 2224 2381 2508 2594 2660 2702 2711 2720 2705 2

Multifamily 392 441 465 473 480 491 512 514 515 527 525



METRO SUMMARY - MODESTO

Annual Outlook fo r Modesto


2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018



Pct Chg Year Ago 4.5 5.0 -0.1 -0.3 3.3 5.8 4.4 1.5 5.0 5.0 5.6 5.8 5.5



Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 2.5 -3.1 -0.3 1.6 3.3 2.5 0.4 3.7 3.3 3.8 4.0 3.5




Pct Chg Year Ago 2.9 3.6 4.3 2.7 0.5 1.9 2.6 -1.3 1.5 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.3



Pct Chg Year Ago 0.5 0.2 -2.3 -6.2 -0.3 -0.2 1.8 1.7 2.7 1.8 2.1 2.0 1.7

Manufacturing 22.2 22.9 22.6 20.9 20.7 20.7 20.8 20.7 21.0 21.2 21.3 21.4 21.5

Pct Chg Year Ago -1.8 3.3 -1.3 -7.7 -0.9 0.0 0.6 -0.4 1.2 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.5Nonmanufacturing 137.7 137.3 133.9 125.9 125.7 125.3 127.9 130.5 134.4 137.0 140.2 143.4 146.0

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 -0.3 -2.5 -6.0 -0.2 -0.3 2.0 2.0 3.0 2.0 2.4 2.2 1.8


Pct Chg Year Ago -0.5 -15.2 -18.8 -27.3 -10.7 -1.6 7.8 -3.9 3.6 11.4 12.0 8.3 4.0


Pct Chg Year Ago -0.2 0.5 -2.6 -4.5 0.7 1.8 3.7 4.0 3.5 1.1 1.7 1.7 1.3

Wholesale Trade 5.9 6.1 6.0 6.1 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.1 6.2 6.4 6.5

Retail Trade 22.5 22.1 21.1 19.5 19.5 20.0 20.7 21.3 21.5 21.5 21.7 21.8 21.9


Information 2.4 2.3 1.8 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9

Pct Chg Year Ago -3.9 -5.5 -19.2 -30.1 -4.5 -8.3 -6.1 -10.3 -2.4 -1.4 0.3 1.4 1.1


Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 -1.2 -2.3 -7.6 -2.6 -0.9 0.0 0.0 -0.8 0.9 0.4 -0.4 -0.4Prof & Business Services 14.8 14.8 14.3 13.2 12.5 12.2 12.8 13.1 13.9 14.5 15.0 15.5 15.9

Pct Chg Year Ago -0.4 -0.1 -3.3 -7.8 -5.1 -1.9 4.5 2.4 6.1 4.3 3.7 3.1 2.5


Pct Chg Year Ago 2.6 6.4 2.8 2.3 4.5 2.0 1.3 0.7 2.1 1.5 2.4 2.5 2.4


Pct Chg Year Ago 3.7 0.7 0.9 -5.6 -0.6 -0.6 2.8 5.1 4.9 1.6 1.7 2.1 1.6

Other Services 5.9 6.0 5.8 5.2 5.0 4.9 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.3

Pct Chg Year Ago -3.4 1.5 -3.8 -10.3 -2.6 -3.9 0.7 4.0 3.3 -0.5 -0.2 0.7 0.2


Pct Chg Year Ago -1.9 -6.9 -18.8 -1.0 12.9 -8.9 -5.7 -8.9 -1.7 0.0 -1.1 -1.5 -1.5


Pct Chg Year Ago 2.8 1.2 1.5 -3.3 1.3 -1.8 -1.1 1.3 1.5 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.9


Population (Ths.) 505.0 507.9 509.4 512.1 515.6 518.5 522.2 526.3 531.7 537.3 544.2 551.6 558.9

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.3

Labor Force (Ths.) 225.1 227.3 232.1 235.0 239.7 238.8 239.4 237.3 241.1 244.4 247.6 250.5 252.9

Pct Chg Year Ago -0.9 1.0 2.1 1.3 2.0 -0.4 0.3 -0.9 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.0


Total Housing Starts 2661 1721 636 376 270 212 318 307 674 1933 2904 3215 3287.4

Single-Family 2368 1396 534 289 169 132 191 269 557 1576 2427 2698 2760.7

Multifamily 293 325 102 86 101 80 126 38 117 357 477 517 526.7



O a k l a n d M S A

Nonfarm employment in the Oakland MSA is expectedto increase in 2015 compared to 2014 with a growth of1.9% versus 1.4%. Te sector with the greatest increasein employment for 2015 is the Construction & Miningsector which is expected to grow 10.8%. Te next leader ineconomic growth is the Professional & Business Servicessector with an expected growth of 4.4%. Employmentgrowth is expected as well in all other sectors with theexception of the Other Services sector and the FederalGovernment, which is projected to lose jobs in the years tocome.

Real personal income for 2015 is expected to increase to$137.9 Billion, which is a 3.5% increase from $133.2 Billion

in 2014. For the years following, Oakland MSA willcontinue to have positive real personal income growth rat

Te Oakland MSAs population is expected to have a1.2% growth for 2015 and 1.1% growth for 2016. 2017 wbring a 1.1% growth rate which is expected to continuet

california economic forecast january 2014

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