calculation of mountain lakes outburst hydrographs

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Lomonosov Moscow State University Faculty of Geography. Calculation of mountain lakes outburst hydrographs. Kidyaeva Vera. FIRST VINOGRADOV'S READINGS. FUTURE OF HYDROLOGY Saint-Petersburg, 2013. The importance of the mountain lakes studies. Parts of the mountain lakes research. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • Calculation of mountain lakes outburst hydrographsLomonosov Moscow State UniversityFaculty of GeographyFIRST VINOGRADOV'S READINGS. FUTURE OF HYDROLOGY Saint-Petersburg, 2013Kidyaeva Vera

  • The importance of the mountain lakes studies

  • Parts of the mountain lakes research1. Potentially hazardous lakes search 2. Surveying and monitoring 3. Morphometrical and hydrological characteristics determination 4. Regional relations determination5. Potential outburst possibility evaluation 6. Scenarios of the outbursts7. Lake outburst hydrographs calculation/evaluation 8. Mathematical simulation of floods or debris flows9. Spatial distribution of the flood or debris flow parameters 10. Intensity and hazard zoning in river valley11. Social and infrastructure vulnerability assessment 12. Risk evaluation

  • Objects

    Mountain lakesGlacialBarrierice-dammedmoraine dammedproglacialrock, and etc.Caused by:lanslides, mudslidesdebris flows, and etc.Study areas: Central Caucasus, Russia (Elbrus region) & Sichuan Province, China (region of the 12.05 Wenchuan earthquake)

  • Outburst or overflow hydrographs and maximum discharge evaluation field surveysempirical formulas and methodswater-balance methodsmathematical and hydraulic outburst modelshydrodynamic modeling

  • Measured hydrographs

    PositionDistance from Tangjiashan Dam, kmPeak discharge, m3/sOccurrence timeTangjiashan dam0650012:30Beichuan hydrologic station4.6654012:50Tongkou hydrologic station26.0621013:50

  • Modeling the outburst flood that occurred in 10-12 of June 2008 after the artificial cut at the dam the dam

  • Empirical formulasProbable maximum discharge of sudden breaks of ice dams:Qmax = W/t (1) or for moraine-dammed lakes:Qmax = 2W/t (2)Haeberli, W. 1983. Frequency and characteristics of glacier floods in the Swiss Alps. Annals of Glaciology, 4: 8590.Huggel, C. et. al. 2002. Remote sensing based assessment of hazards from glacier lake outbursts: a case study in the Swiss Alps. Canadian Geotechnical Journal, 39: 316330.Clague, J.J., and Mathews, W.H. 1973. The magnitude of Jkulhlaups. Journal of Glaciology, 12: 501504.Subglacial drainage of ice dammed lakes:Qmax maximum discharge, m3/s, W - volume in m3, t - drainage duration in seconds, t =1000 s for maximum estimates(3)

  • Ice-dammed glacial lake outburst 11 august 2006Parameters:Estimated volume of the flood 420 000 m3Maximum discharge of the flood 20 m3/sVolumetric concentration of thedebris flow 0.42 Water-balance method based on field surveys Q, m3/sChernomorets S., Petrakov D., Tutubalina O. 2007 Glacial lake outburst in the north-eastern slope of Mount Elbrus August 11, 2006: the forecast, the eventand the consequences// Materials of glaciological studies. 102. P.211215.

  • Results

  • Mathematical and hydraulic models 0 - water density, 1000 kg/m3 - water and ice density, 850-910 kg/m3g - gravitational acceleration, 9.81 m/s2r - latent heat of fusion of ice, 334 000 J/kgl - length of the tunnel, 550 mh - excess between entrance and the exit of the tunnel, 61 mW0 - volume of the lake before the outburst, 821 000 m3a, m - morphometrical parameters of the lake C0 - specific mass heat capacity of water, 4190 J/kg t - lake water temperature, 2,5 Computational model by Yu. B. Vinogradov for outburst through ice tunnel: for Bashkara lake

  • Gnezdilov Ju., Ivashchenko E., Krasnikh N. 2007 Evaluation of a hypothetical ouburst of the Lake Bashkara // Proceedings of "Sevkavgiprovodhoz", Issue 17, p.127-149.Mathematical and hydraulic models lake

  • Computational model for a step-shaped schematized lake hollow by V.Mochalov and I.Zuckerman Mathematical and hydraulic models W volume of the lake, m3S- surface area, m2Z depth, mZ depth of the spillway, mk spillway koef. erosion intensity koef., m-2 Tangjiashan barrier lake

  • Mathematical and hydraulic models 17t, h036vs.Tangjiashan barrier lake outburst, 10-12 of June 2008 ?

  • Hydrodynamic simulationThe Tangjiashan Barrier Lake overflow in case of huge rockfall (volume > 106 m3). The dam is stable

  • Methodology:two-dimensional hydrodynamic simulation, using River model by V. Belikov, A. MiliteevSaint-Venant equations

    u - longitudinal component of flow velocity

    v transverse component of flow velocity

    q - additional inflow

    _1256566703.unknown

  • Irregular rectangular-triangular gridDigital terrain model of the valleylakedamriverbed

  • Simulated overflow discharge at the dam of the Tangjiashan Lake, the highest peak 5000 m3/s

    3

    116.38129

    122.55221

    130.63011

    5154.38356

    1226.52405

    1070.46494

    552.56495

    282.05089

    37.88916

    557.64044

    515.1128

    349.37426

    172.8164

    231.54021

    263.95213

    385.88162

    448.20623

    392.85898

    297.79385

    283.93505

    349.23678

    376.36808

    357.42892

    316.61284

    283.70565

    265.77522

    286.55436

    315.48448

    311.54275

    281.02199

    267.95552

    281.89155

    305.57325

    319.56722

    319.34552

    312.5185

    311.80612

    322.48181

    335.3399

    338.66801

    330.62084

    320.21768

    315.21069

    316.32185

    318.74407

    316.89862

    309.83374

    303.50073

    303.77751

    309.63732

    315.08977

    316.42662

    314.75521

    313.25632

    313.8226

    315.69236

    316.20582

    313.53267

    308.79561

    304.70533

    302.75231

    302.26013

    301.6684

    300.2338

    298.65276

    298.20911

    299.29547

    300.98926

    302.06725

    302.16434

    301.83079

    301.7361

    301.99145

    302.13043

    301.64692

    300.53764

    299.30347

    298.43204

    297.95733

    297.5464

    296.93826

    296.21544

    295.67074

    295.48014

    295.5309

    295.54859

    295.3622

    295.02559

    294.69615

    294.43626

    294.14941

    293.69012

    293.0141

    292.2196

    291.45317

    290.78504

    290.17939

    289.57386

    288.96914

    288.43331

    288.03052

    287.75623

    287.54094

    287.30993

    287.03563

    286.7355

    286.42863

    286.10271

    285.72385

    285.27604

    284.77471

    284.26125

    283.76979

    283.30836

    282.86712

    282.43963

    282.03357

    281.66188

    281.32647

    281.01248

    280.69798

    280.36818

    280.02113

    279.66143

    279.29064

    278.90431

    278.49765

    278.07256

    277.63851

    277.2066

    276.78313

    276.36841

    275.96081

    275.56108

    275.17249

    274.79735

    274.43397

    274.07718

    273.72166

    273.36461

    273.00573

    272.64506

    272.28124

    271.91212

    271.53671

    271.15637

    270.7741

    270.39277

    270.01405

    269.63855

    269.26688

    268.90008

    268.53912

    268.18403

    267.83348

    267.48542

    267.1379

    266.78983

    266.4407

    266.08986

    265.7366

    265.38063

    265.02233

    264.6627

    264.30302

    263.94423

    263.58728

    263.23269

    262.88071

    262.53154

    262.18523

    261.8414

    261.49945

    261.15872

    260.81861

    260.4787

    260.13873

    259.79843

    259.45779

    259.11708

    258.77659

    258.43659

    258.09742

    257.75939

    257.42272

    257.08761

    256.75412

    256.42223

    256.09181

    255.76267

    255.43459

    255.1074

    254.78089

    254.45494

    254.12941

    253.80423

    253.47936

    253.15475

    252.83067

    252.50737

    252.18482

    251.86315

    251.54245

    251.22278

    250.90422

    250.58687

    250.27065

    249.95536

    249.64091

    249.32725

    249.01433

    248.70208

    248.39046

    248.07942

    247.76894

    247.45908

    247.14992

    246.84152

    246.53389

    246.22704

    245.92103

    245.61594

    245.31172

    245.00842

    244.70604

    244.40448

    244.10374

    243.80378

    243.50455

    243.20601

    242.90814

    242.61092

    242.31436

    242.01848

    241.7233

    241.42885

    241.13513

    240.84215

    240.54994

    240.25846

    239.96767

    239.67733

    239.38782

    239.09953

    238.81168

    238.52462

    238.23839

    237.95299

    237.66822

    237.38411

    237.10079

    236.81804

    236.53591

    236.2545

    235.97382

    235.69381

    235.41447

    235.13589

    234.85802

    234.58083

    234.30432

    234.02838

    233.75307

    233.47848

    233.20465

    232.9315

    232.659

    232.38717

    232.11603

    231.84559

    231.57588

    231.30687

    231.03852

    230.77081

    230.50375

    230.23735

    229.9716

    229.7065

    229.44202

    229.17812

    228.91476

    228.65203

    228.38997

    228.12854

    227.86773

    227.60758

    227.34804

    227.08913

    226.8309

    226.57336

    226.31649

    226.06025

    225.80462

    225.54964

    225.29534

    225.04171

    224.78875

    224.53642

    224.28474

    224.03371

    223.78334

    223.53361

    223.28451

    223.03602

    222.78815

    222.54088

    222.29425

    222.04825

    221.80287

    221.55969

    221.31713

    221.0752

    220.83388

    220.59317

    220.35308

    220.11359

    219.8747

    219.6364

    219.3987

    219.16159

    218.92507

    218.68914

    218.4538

    218.21906

    217.98491

    217.75136

    217.5184

    217.28604

    217.05427

    216.82309

    216.59251

    216.36251

    216.13309

    215.90426

    215.676

    215.44833

    215.22123

    214.9947

    214.76874

    214.54333

    214.31842

    214.09405

    213.87027

    213.6471

    213.42449

    213.20246

    212.981

    212.76012

    212.53979

    212.32008

    212.10094

    211.88236

    211.66441

    211.44707

    211.23034

    211.01425

    210.79877

    210.58391

    210.36967

    210.15605

    209.94307

    209.73074

    209.51907

    209.30821

    209.09815

    208.88871

    208.67985

    208.47147

    208.26364

    208.05629

    207.84939

    207.64302

    207.43719

    207.2318

    207.0268

    206.82218

    206.61809

    206.41467

    206.21133

    206.00844

    205.80596

    205.60391

    205.40235

    205.2013

    205.00073

    204.80063

    204.60099

    204.4018

    204.20307

    204.00478

    203.80694

    203.60951

    203.4125

    203.2159

    203.0197

    202.82386

    202.62843

    202.43343

    202.23887

    202.04479

    201.85117

    201.658

    201.46527

    201.27297

    201.0811

    200.88965

    200.69863

    200.50803

    200.31784

    200.12804

    199.93866

    199.74969

    199.56114

    199.37299

    199.18526

    198.99793

    198.81101

    198.6245

    198.4384

    198.2527

    198.06741

    197.88251

    197.698

    197.51386

    197.33004

    197.1467

    196.96381

    196.78131

    196.59921

    196.41751

    196.23619

    196.05527

    195.8748

    195.69473

    195.51503

    195.33567

    195.1567

    194.97812

    194.79993

    194.62213

    194.44471

    194.26766

    194.091

    193.91472

    193.73884

    193.56333

    193.38819

    193.21342

    193.03899

    192.86491

    192.69113

    192.51762

    192.34449

    192.17175

    191.99939

    191.82742

    191.65583

    191.48461

    191.31379

    191.14338

    190.97338

    190.80375

    190.63447

    190.46553

    190.29694

    190.12872

    189.96087

    189.79337

    189.62621

    189.4594

    189.29294

    189.12685

    188.9611

    188.7957

    188.63061

    188.4658

    188.30116

    188.13687

    187.97304

    187.80972

    187.64677

    187.48413

    187.32181

    187.15983

    186.99823

    186.83703

    186.67617

    186.51559

    186.3553

    186.19534

    186.03575

    185.87651

    185.71761

    185.55903

    185.40078

    185.24288

    185.08534

    184.92817

    184.77133

    184.61481

    184.45862

    184.30276

    184.14724

    183.99205

    183.83718

    183.68261

    183.52836

    183.37444

    183.22084

    183.06756

    182.91461

    182.76196

    182.60964

    182.45765

    182.30599

    182.15465

    182.00364

    181.85294

    181.70256

    181.55251

    181.40277

    181.25335

    181.10424

    180.95544

    180.80695

    180.65877

    180.51091

    180.36335

    180.2161

    180.06916

    179.92253

    179.7762

    179.63019

    179.48449

    179.33909

    179.19399

    179.0492

    178.9047

    178.7605

    178.61659

    178.47295

    178.3296

    178.18654

    178.04377

    177.90128

    177.75908

    177.61719

    177.47561

    177.33433

    177.19336

    177.0527

    176.91234

    176.77228

    176.63251

    176.49303

    176.35384

    176.21493

    176.07631

    175.93797

    175.79991

    175.66214

    175.52466

    175.38746

    175.25055

    175.11393

    174.9776

    174.84155

    174.70578

    174.5703

    174.43509

    174.30016

    174.16551

    174.03113

    173.89703

    173.76319

    173.62962

    173.49631

    173.36326

    173.23048

    173.09797

    172.96573

    172.83375

    172.70206

    172.57064

    172.43949

    172.30863

    172.17804

    172.04773

    171.91769

    171.78792

    171.65841

    171.52917

    171.40019

    171.27147

    171.14301

    171.01481

    170.88688

    170.75921

    170.6318

    170.50466

    170.37777

    170.25115

    170.1248

    169.9987

    169.87286

    169.74727

    Q_3dam

    time, hour

    calculated discharge, m3/c

    z1_50

    timeQ_3damQ_4_BeichuanQ5_MagunyanQ2_Tongkou

    47.992790.00116.38129119.72728125.26706129.30437

    48.005350.01122.55221130.8591136.88322135.23911

    48.025410.03774.51728132.26119147.33857155.77878

    48.045440.05827.16964134.50058147.71902155.51629

    48.065540.07146.70893135.89292147.78114155.20314

    48.085540.0950.13852137.30728147.69037155.02374

    48.105650.11478.71213138.12306147.59003154.88837

    48.125720.13444.80731138.28841147.48227154.77461

    48.145780.15134.9346138.09553147.37044154.67485

    48.165850.17138.20736137.8397147.26064154.58365

    48.185880.19229.72106137.63717147.15634154.49692

    48.205970.21122.35437137.48946147.05763154.41059

    48.226040.23159.97717137.3738146.96334154.32142

    48.246090.25275.59986137.27113146.87282154.22824

    48.266170.27287.33974137.17318146.78535154.13105

    48.286250.29187.61655137.0796146.70016154.03068

    48.306380.31209.12116136.99202146.61682153.92865

    48.326390.33278.59636136.91044146.5351153.82667

    48.346510.35255.00729136.83352146.45489153.72625

    48.366570.37245.54344136.75969146.37574153.62802

    48.386660.39261.43585136.68818146.2973153.53226

    48.406740.41240.6149136.61879146.21971153.43952

    48.426750.43201.85305136.55253146.1425153.34926

    48.446830.45208.30284136.49523146.06589153.26161

    48.466910.47229.49061136.45787145.98982153.17619

    48.486960.49218.65829136.45951145.9147153.09309

    48.5070.51198.67105136.53096145.8399153.01127

    48.527070.53199.25288136.71965145.76538152.93033

    48.547190.55204.72815137.08851145.69125152.85007

    48.567230.57202.81464137.71629145.61747152.77021

    48.587290.59208.7438138.70106145.54397152.69043

    48.607340.61216.98603140.1474145.47071152.61054

    48.627380.63213.26991142.14339145.39776152.53048

    48.647430.65207.85154144.72046145.32556152.45067

    48.667490.67216.72649147.88442145.25366152.37058

    48.687560.69229.3801151.59038145.18161152.28968

    48.707630.71233.14639155.70006145.10987152.2085

    48.727670.73232.73724160.07373145.03839152.12703

    48.747710.75233.51563164.59908144.96717152.04531

    48.767750.77231.87273169.19332144.89623151.96341

    48.78780.79230.83497173.77698144.82556151.88141

    48.807840.81233.3313178.26254144.75514151.79934

    48.827880.83233.42167182.56673144.68494151.71724

    48.84790.85227.56041186.62606144.61495151.63516

    48.867920.87220.71115190.40198144.54515151.55314

    48.887950.89217.26054193.87508144.47553151.47122

    48.907990.91216.48054197.03824144.40607151.38943

    48.928040.93216.91225199.89291144.33675151.30777

    48.948090.95218.00656202.44594144.26756151.22626

    48.968140.97218.62213204.70748144.1985151.1449

    48.98820.99218.33649206.69078144.12957151.06371

    49.008261.01219.15236208.4122144.0608150.9827

    49.028331.03222.07889209.89542143.99265150.90239

    49.048411.05225.08202211.19424143.92471150.82224

    49.068481.07226.19656212.3134143.85705150.74226

    49.088551.09225.6394213.23976143.78975150.66244

    49.108621.11224.21357213.97166143.72294150.58276

    49.128691.13222.47785214.52479143.65677150.50322

    49.148761.15221.02796214.92415143.59145150.42381

    49.168831.17219.79939215.20335143.52722150.34452

    49.18891.19218.07035215.37803143.46438150.26531

    49.208981.21215.78835215.45819143.40327150.18618

    49.229061.23213.84003215.45028143.34432150.1071

    49.249141.25212.91312215.36678143.28799150.02807

    49.269231.27212.92069215.23184143.23481149.94907

    49.289321.29213.40752215.06568143.18536149.87008

    49.309411.31213.98072214.87572143.14028149.79111

    49.329511.33214.46172214.66632143.10022149.71213

    49.349611.35214.95788214.44325143.06591149.63315

    49.369711.37215.66569214.21511143.03808149.55416

    49.389811.39216.48615213.99036143.0175149.47517

    49.409911.41217.03932213.77178143.00492149.39617

    49.430011.43217.09416213.56056143.00113149.31715

    49.450121.45216.76277213.35831143.00689149.23813

    49.470221.47216.29465213.16662143.02296149.15909

    49.490321.49215.85506212.98654143.05007149.08004

    49.510431.51215.45649212.81859143.08892149.00098

    49.530541.53214.99503212.66284143.14015148.92192

    49.550641.55214.39746212.51918143.2044148.84285

    49.570751.57213.75214212.38743143.28225148.76378

    49.590861.59213.23845212.26729143.37426148.6847

    49.610961.61212.946212.15836143.48093148.60564

    49.631071.63212.81598212.06014143.60271148.52659

    49.651181.65212.72841211.9721143.74002148.44757

    49.671291.67212.61237211.89376143.89321148.36858

    49.69141.69212.49167211.82439144.06257148.28963

    49.711511.71212.43864211.7627144.24834148.21073

    49.731621.73212.47913211.70703144.45069148.13188

    49.751741.75212.5487211.65568144.66974148.05311

    49.771851.77212.5458211.60716144.90555147.97442

    49.791971.79212.41719211.56014145.15812147.89581

    49.812081.81212.18537211.51341145.42739147.81731

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