c hapter 15 c ampaigns and e lections copyright © 2012 cengage learning

CHAPTER 15CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONS

CHAPTER 15CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONS

Copyright © 2012 Cengage Learning

CHAPTER 15: LEARNING CHAPTER 15: LEARNING OBJECTIVESOBJECTIVES

Understand the system for choosing U.S. presidents, which features two distinct phases: a nomination phase and a general election phase

Trace the historical evolution of the presidential selection process



Describe the role of national party conventions in the modern era of presidential selection

Compare and contrast the different political environments at work in incumbent races and open elections



Assess the various factors that contribute to the selection of vice presidential running mates

Describe the electoral college system as it works today

Analyze strategic campaign objectives that focus on securing a winning coalition of statesCopyright © 2012 Cengage Learning


Evaluate the role of televised presidential debates and television advertising on the campaign

Understand the impact money has on presidential campaigns, and recognize the laws governing campaign finance



Assess the power of incumbency in congressional elections

Explain why turnout levels vary in presidential elections and mid-term elections

Identify and define the “coat-tail effect” of presidential elections


THE STOLEN ELECTION? NOW & THE STOLEN ELECTION? NOW & THENTHEN

All the experts were predicting a close election

Partisan differences broke down by geography –

North and South lined up behind different candidates

Election Day came and went, and weeks passed without a declared winner


THE STOLEN ELECTION? NOW & THE STOLEN ELECTION? NOW & THENTHEN

Several states were very close – In Florida, voting irregularities were the

subject of considerable concernThe U.S. Supreme Court’s Republican

nominees decided the election in favor of the Republican Party candidate

Even though the Democratic candidate had received more popular votes


A judge evaluates a questionable ballot due to a “hanging chad” after the 2000 presidential election in Florida


RHONA WISE/AFP/GETTY IMAGES

NOW… GEORGE W. BUSHNOW… GEORGE W. BUSH

The votes were close in several states –

New Mexico, New Hampshire, Oregon, and Pennsylvania –

The closest and most controversial race was for Florida’s 25 electoral votes

The U.S. Supreme Court decided the election by a 5–4 decision in favor of Bush


THEN… RUTHERFORD B. HAYESTHEN… RUTHERFORD B. HAYES

1876: The popular vote count gave Democrat Samuel Tilden a 250,000-vote margin over Republican Hayes

But disputed vote counts in several states, especially Florida, left the winner in doubt for over two months

Each candidate claimed he had won the popular vote in Florida


THEN… RUTHERFORD B. HAYESTHEN… RUTHERFORD B. HAYES

The Republican-controlled Senate appointed a commission –

An equal number of Democrats and Republicans, plus one “neutral” Supreme Court Justice (a Republican) –

Awarded all of the disputed electoral votes to Hayes who was declared the winner


AMERICAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN AMERICAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVEHISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE

The founders envisioned presidential selection by a group of wise, rational men at a lofty level above partisan politics

However, political parties have provided the framework for presidential elections since 1796


THE NOMINATION PHASETHE NOMINATION PHASE

The parties select their presidential and vice presidential candidates for the general election

The Constitution didn’t account for this because the Founders did not anticipate the two-party system

The process has evolved significantly throughout the years


AMERICAN GOVERNMENT… IN AMERICAN GOVERNMENT… IN GLOBAL PERSPECTIVEGLOBAL PERSPECTIVE

A U.S. Presidential Candidate Captures the Imagination of Foreigners:

In an Egypt Daily News article, Mona Makram Ebeid called Obama –

A charismatic leader in a nation that represents the world’s “emotional centrality”


THE GENERAL ELECTION PHASETHE GENERAL ELECTION PHASE

Modern presidential selection is an amalgamation of the Founders’ design

Modified by constitutional amendments and changes over time

There are many caveats and exceptions to the rules, but the contemporary selection process generally consists of five stages


THE GENERAL ELECTION PHASETHE GENERAL ELECTION PHASE

1. The Prenomination Campaign

2. The Nomination Campaign

3. The National Conventions

4. The General Election Campaign

5. The Electoral College Decision


1. THE PRENOMINATION 1. THE PRENOMINATION CAMPAIGNCAMPAIGN

Candidates thinking about running often “test the waters” behind-the-scenes

Beginning of the “weeding out” process Invisible primary: the competition for

front-runner status Winning support from important people,

raising more money, and achieving top position in the public polls


2. THE NOMINATION CAMPAIGN2. THE NOMINATION CAMPAIGN

Presidential primary: voters elect delegates committed to a particular candidate for the national convention

Open primary: voters choose on election day either the Democratic or Republican primary—cannot vote in both

Closed primary: requires voters to declare a party affiliation ahead of time


2. THE NOMINATION CAMPAIGN2. THE NOMINATION CAMPAIGN

A handful of states use caucuses to select delegates for the national convention

Choose delegates at local meetings, who attend regional meetings, who choose delegates to a statewide caucus

Who elect delegates to the national convention to vote for their candidate


THE TRADITIONAL IMPORTANCE OF THE THE TRADITIONAL IMPORTANCE OF THE IOWA AND NEW HAMPSHIRE CONTESTSIOWA AND NEW HAMPSHIRE CONTESTS

Small states with relatively few delegates, but traditionally are the first two contests

Winners receive significant media attention, losers often get written off

Frontloading: earlier contests attract greater media and candidate attention


3. THE NOMINATING 3. THE NOMINATING CONVENTIONSCONVENTIONS

For many years, smoke-filled back rooms where deals were cut and delegates were lobbied by skilled political operators were very real

Now they provide a week-long forum for the parties and their nominees

Introduce themselves to voters and formally kick off the campaign


JAE C. HONG/AP PHOTO


4. THE GENERAL ELECTION 4. THE GENERAL ELECTION CAMPAIGNCAMPAIGN

Incumbent Race vs. Open Election

The Choice of a Vice Presidential Candidate

Gathering a Winning Coalition of States

The Presidential Debates

The Advertising



Incumbent Race vs. Open Election Incumbent races: often viewed as a

referendum on the performance of the incumbent

Open seat elections: tend to be far less focused on the past

The last truly open-ended presidential election occurred in 1928



The Choice of a Vice Presidential Candidate

Significant amounts of thought and fanfare go into the selection

Often attempt to balance the ticket geographically

Often chosen on the basis of their ideological fervor



Gathering a Winning Coalition of States

Three categories: i. Strong Republican states

ii. Strong Democratic states

iii. Battleground (“swing”) states—either candidate has a reasonable chance of winning


CHECK THE LISTCHECK THE LIST

Top Twelve “Battleground States” In 2008

Candidates spent most of their resources on the battleground states

North Carolina; Missouri; Indiana; Florida; Ohio; Montana; Virginia; Colorado; New Hampshire; Nevada; Pennsylvania; and New Mexico



The Presidential DebatesThe schedule and rules governing

debates are the product of intense negotiation between the campaigns

Despite the large amount of attention paid to the debates

Their impact on the outcome is unclear



The AdvertisingTV ads have become a staple of

presidential campaign strategies -Used to:

Heighten name recognition

Communicate core messages, and

Reasons to vote for (or against) a candidate


AMERICAN GOVERNMENT… IN AMERICAN GOVERNMENT… IN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVEHISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE

The Comeback Kids Of Presidential Elections:

Men who lost their first presidential bid Thomas Jefferson, James Monroe,

Andrew Jackson, William Henry Harrison, Grover Cleveland, and Richard Nixon


5. THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE 5. THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE DECISIONDECISION

The winner of the presidential election must receive a majority of the Electoral College’s 538 votes

Number of electoral votes = the number of senators (two) plus the number of representatives a state has in Congress

The Twenty-third Amendment gave the District of Columbia three votes



During the first presidential elections, most state legislatures selected electors

Gradually shifted to the unit rule: (“winner-take-all” system) –

Candidate with the most votes in a state receives all the electoral votes

Maine and Nebraska are the only states that don’t use the unit rule



Electors are under no constitutional obligation to actually cast their vote for their pledged candidate

But only 9 of the 21,829 electoral votes cast since 1796 deviated from the expected vote

And none of those impacted the result


Figure 15.1 The Electoral College Map


YOUR PERSPECTIVE . . . ON YOUR PERSPECTIVE . . . ON AMERICAN GOVERNMENTAMERICAN GOVERNMENT

Getting Involved in Political Campaigns

In 2008, a record 35.6% of college freshman said they frequently discussed politics in the past year

Also more likely to engage in a political protest (6.1% in 2008 vs. 4.9% in 1966)


YOUR PERSPECTIVE . . . ON YOUR PERSPECTIVE . . . ON AMERICAN GOVERNMENTAMERICAN GOVERNMENT

Why do you think your peers were so charged up about the most recent presidential election?

Do you think college students’ participation made a difference in 2008?

Do you think the trend toward increased college student participation will continue?


CHRIS HONDROS/GETTY IMAGES


AMERICAN GOVERNMENT… IN AMERICAN GOVERNMENT… IN POPULAR PERSPECTIVEPOPULAR PERSPECTIVE

Appealing to Voters the Old Fashioned Way… By Writing a Book

John McCain wrote two books, one in 1999, and the other in 2008

Barack Obama has written three books, one in 2004 and the other two in 2008

Ron Paul and Hillary Clinton also wrote books


AMERICAN GOVERNMENT… IN AMERICAN GOVERNMENT… IN POPULAR PERSPECTIVEPOPULAR PERSPECTIVE

Criticisms: often use ghost writers, Often filled with vague platitudes, and Provide a limited glimpse into their real

positionsNot going away any time soon, i.e.

presidential hopefuls Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney have written books



UPPA/PHOTOSHOT

TIM SLOAN/AFP/GETTY IMAGES

CAMPAIGN FUNDINGCAMPAIGN FUNDING

Increasingly expensive; in 2008 Candidates raised over $1.7 billion, nearly

double that of 2004, and over four times the amount in 2000

Obama alone raised $745 million

Pays for professional staffing; TV and radio spots, office space, polls, buttons, bumper stickers, signs, etc…


SOURCES OF FUNDINGSOURCES OF FUNDING

Individual citizens, interest groups political action committees (PACs), and political parties

PACs must register with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) –

Over 4000 PACs are registered About 30% of the $1 billion raised in

2004 came from PACs


Figure 15-2 The Growth of Political Action Committees


Source: Harold W. Stanley and Richard G. Niemi, Vital Statistics on American Politics2004–2005, 103 (Washington, DC: CQ Press, 2006). Copyright .2006 CQ Press, adivision of Sage Publications. Data for 2005-2008 are from www.fec.gov/press/press2009/20090415pac/20090424pac.shtml.


1970s Federal campaign finance legislation regulated hard money –

Directly raised and spent by candidatesThe number of PACs increased to raise

and spend money independent of the candidates: soft money

Soft money was a primary reason for 2002 campaign finance laws



The parties have committees that raise money to fund campaigns

2000: collected and spent about $200 million

Incumbents in “safe seats” use their campaign war chests to help colleagues

Some candidates use their personal wealth to fund their campaigns



The federal government and a handful of states maintain some form of public campaign financing

Offer significant public funds if the candidate agrees to abide by campaign spending limits

2008: McCain accepted public funding (and its limits), but Obama turned it down



Candidates have utilized the Internet as another means of fund-raising

2000: Bill Bradley raised over $2 million 2004: Howard Dean raised over $40

million 2008: Obama raised over $200 million

via the Internet


REGULATING CAMPAIGN REGULATING CAMPAIGN FINANCINGFINANCING

Federal Election Campaign Act (FECA) passed in 1971, amended 1974:

Federal candidates must disclose campaign contributions and document all expenditures

Amendments imposed limits on annual campaign contributions for individuals, PACs, and national party committees



FECA targeted hard money and didn’t slow soft money to political parties and political advocacy groups

Soft money has been used to fund issue ads and other party activities

Federal Election Commission (FEC): established in 1974 -

Enforces election lawsCopyright © 2012 Cengage Learning


Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (BCRA) aka the McCain-Feingold Act:

Prohibited federal candidates and national parties from accepting soft money

Also raised limits on contributions to federal candidates


CONGRESSIONAL CAMPAIGNS CONGRESSIONAL CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONSAND ELECTIONS

Presidential election years: All 435 seats in the House and 1/3rd of the Senate seats are contested

Midterm congressional elections: In between presidential elections All 435 House seats and another 1/3rd

of the Senate seats are contested



Midterm elections are different Voter turnout tends to be lowerNo presidential coattail effectA discernable trend shows they tend to

favor candidates in the party opposite the president’s



Power of incumbency: Incumbent members are returned to

office at amazingly high rates In a normal year, over a 90% chance of

reelection Why? Name recognition; party

domination; and financial advantages


NOW & THEN: MAKING THE NOW & THEN: MAKING THE CONNECTIONCONNECTION

Historically, the complicated procedure for selecting a president has sometimes resulted in controversy, however

The U.S. continues to maintain free, open, and regular elections

Provide an important connection between citizens and their government


POLITICS INTERACTIVE!POLITICS INTERACTIVE!

Campaign Donations… Just a Click Away

Internet donations offered Obama numerous advantages: Broad-based funding at no cost

Required little time or effort

Little risk of influence buying


POLITICS INTERACTIVE!POLITICS INTERACTIVE!

Go to www.cengage.com/dautrich/americangovernment/2e

Find the link for information about the Internet campaign financing phenomenon, including

Which candidates have benefited the most from Internet donations



ANDREW HARRER/BLOOMBERG/GETTY IMAGES

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