by mohammed h. al-mady vice chairman & managing director role of primary industrial projects in...

23
By Mohammed H. Al-Mady Vice Chairman & Managing Director Role of Primary Industrial Projects in the National Economy

Upload: kaitlyn-barnett

Post on 26-Mar-2015

212 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: By Mohammed H. Al-Mady Vice Chairman & Managing Director Role of Primary Industrial Projects in the National Economy

By

Mohammed H. Al-MadyVice Chairman & Managing Director

Role of Primary Industrial Projects in the National Economy

Page 2: By Mohammed H. Al-Mady Vice Chairman & Managing Director Role of Primary Industrial Projects in the National Economy

Agenda

Global Petrochemical Trends. Migration to “The Best Cost” Locations. Evolution to Higher Value “Downstream” Products. Impact on Saudi Arabian Economy. Saudi Arabia’s Investment Prospects. Saudi Arabia’s Current Situation. Future Saudi Arabia Business Development Prospects. Partnership Financial Track Record

Page 3: By Mohammed H. Al-Mady Vice Chairman & Managing Director Role of Primary Industrial Projects in the National Economy

Agenda

Global Petrochemical Trends.

Page 4: By Mohammed H. Al-Mady Vice Chairman & Managing Director Role of Primary Industrial Projects in the National Economy

Agenda

Global Petrochemical Trends. Migration to “The Best Cost” Locations.

Page 5: By Mohammed H. Al-Mady Vice Chairman & Managing Director Role of Primary Industrial Projects in the National Economy

1984-1999 1984-19991984 1999 Growth Rate 1984 1999 Growth Rate

North America 38% 34% 3% 42% 23% 0%

West Europe 28% 22% 1% 16% 11% 2%

North East Asia 16% 19% 4% 10% 6% 1%

Traditional Markets 82% 75% 2% 68% 41% 1%

Eastern Europe 8% 7% 2% 21% 12% 0.5%

Latin America 4% 4% 3% 1% 18% 24%

South Asia 3% 7% 11% 3% 13% 15%

Mid-East+Africa 3% 8% 8% 8% 17% 9%

Developing Regions 10% 18% 8% 11% 47% 14%

of which Saudi Arabia 0% 3% nc 3% 11% 13%

WORLD 100% 100% 3% 100% 100% 4%

Sources: SRI ( 1986 & 2000 "World Ethylene" and "World Methanol") ; DeWitt ( 1999 "Ethylene Annual") ; CMAI ( 1999 "World Methanol") .

METHANOL

% World CapacityREGION % World Capacity

ETHYLENE

FOR PAST 15 YEARS, GLOBAL PETROCHEMICAL INDUSTRY MIGRATING TO DEVELOPING REGIONS...

…DEVELOPING REGION CAPACITY HAS BEEN EXPANDING 4x FASTER THAN IN TRADITIONAL MAJOR MARKETS.

Chart 1

Page 6: By Mohammed H. Al-Mady Vice Chairman & Managing Director Role of Primary Industrial Projects in the National Economy

1990 - 1999

1999 - 2020

1990 - 1999

1999 - 2020

1990 - 1999

1999 - 2020

North America 399 1.5% 1.0% 9866 2.8% 2.3% 3.4% 2.9%

Western Europe 455 0.5% 0.4% 9179 1.8% 2.4% 4.0% 2.3%

Japan 127 0.3% -0.2% 4108 1.3% 1.5% 1.0% 1.1%

Traditional Markets 980 0.9% 0.6% 23153 2.1% 2.2% 3.2% 2.4%

Eastern Europe 409 0.4% 0.1% 962 -1.3% 3.8% 134% 11.1%

Latin America 406 1.6% 1.2% 1667 3.0% 4.2% 16.7% ^ 5.8%

Other Asia (ex-Japan) 3194 1.5% 1.2% 3731 5.5% 5.6% 6.2% 4.3%

Mid-East+Africa 904 3.5% 2.0% 1011 2.7% 4.4% 15.3% 6.9%

Developing Regions 4504 1.9% 1.4% 6409 4.4% 5.0% 10.4% 5.1%

of which Saudi Arabia 20 2.4% 3.3% 132 2.6% 5.6% 1.2% 1.9%

WORLD 5893 1.5% 1.2% 30524 2.3% 2.9% 10.8% 3.3%

* Source: Standard & Poor's DRI "World Outlook" (Fourth Quarter 1999 edition) .

^ 1990-1999 Latin American inflation averages exclude Brazil -- which averaged 256% /year.

Real GDP

Annual Growth

Population

1999

(million)

Inflation

(Consumer Price Index)

Standard & Poor's DRI World Projections*

REGION

Annual Growth Annual Growth 1999

(US$ billion)

INDUSTRY MIGRATION TO DEVELOPING REGIONS PARTLY REFLECTS THEIR FASTER ECONOMIC GROWTH ...

…PROJECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST NEXT DECADE.

Chart 2

Page 7: By Mohammed H. Al-Mady Vice Chairman & Managing Director Role of Primary Industrial Projects in the National Economy

Chart 3

1999 % World 1999 % World

North America 38% 34% 3% 7438 5% 9 54 5% 13

Western Europe 28% 22% 1% 4426 3% 15 18 2% 8

Japan 8% 8% 4% 40 0% nm 0 0% nm

Traditional Markets 74% 64% 2% 11904 8% 11 73 7% 11

Eastern Europe 8% 7% 2% 56700 39% 81 59 6% 22

Latin America 4% 4% 3% 6310 4% 61 90 9% 38

Other Asia (ex-Japan) 11% 18% 11% 10333 7% 41 44 4% 16

Mid-East+Africa 3% 8% 8% 60714 42% 202 755 74% 75

Developing Regions 18% 29% 8% 77357 53% 118 888 87% 59

of which Saudi Arabia 0% 3% nc 5777 4% 123 261 26% 92

WORLD 100% 100% 3% 145961 100% 60 1020 100% 42

* Reserves as per SRI "World Petrochemicals" ( 2000 ) and Petroleum Economist "World Gas" ( 2000 ); Reserve Years = 1999 Reserves divided by 1999 Production.

** Projections based on Tecnon "World Petrochemical Surveys" ( 1985 & 1995 ), SRI "World Petrochemicals" ( 2000 ), and Chem Systems "Ethylene Global Review " ( 1999 ).

1984 -

99

Growth

Reserves

(years)

Reserves

Natural Gas*

(billion cubic meters)

Reserves

(years)

(billion barrels)

Reserves

REGION1984

World Ethylene and Energy Resources*

Ethylene Capacity**

(% world total)

1999

Crude Oil*

INDUSTRY MIGRATION ESPECIALLY ENCOURAGED BY THE DEVELOPING REGION'S ENERGY RESOURCES ...

…PARTICULARLY IN MID-EAST AND SAUDI ARABIA.

Page 8: By Mohammed H. Al-Mady Vice Chairman & Managing Director Role of Primary Industrial Projects in the National Economy

Chart 4

1999 2004 1999 2004

Latin AmericaArgentina 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 6067 3.9% 2.3%

Venezuela 0.6% 1.4% 4.0% 3.3% 2.8% 7.1% 9458 3.5% 9.4%

South AsiaIndonesia 0.6% 0.5% 2.8% 2.3% 1.4% 0.5% 3552 4.8% 7.8%

Malaysia 0.7% 1.3% 1.9% 1.7% 1.6% 0.4% 10130 4.2% 4.1%

Mid East + AfricaAbu Dhabi - 0.5% - - 3.8% 9.4% 15898 3.9% 2.5%

Algeria 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 3.1% 0.9% 3529 4.0% 9.1%

K uwait 0.7% 0.6% - 1.5% 1.0% 9.2% 9443 3.7% 2.0%

Iran 0.8% 1.0% 0.3% 1.9% 15.8% 8.8% 4950 3.9% 5.0%

Qatar 0.6% 0.9% 0.6% 1.9% 5.8% 0.4% 16383 4.2% 2.5%

Saudi Arabia 3.5% 4.8% 11.3% 11.2% 4.0% 25.6% 11276 5.6% 1.9%

Mid East+Africa (total) 8% 10% 17% 22% 42% 74% 3880 4.4% 6.9%

WORLD 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 4970 2.9% 3.3%

* Sources: Standard & Poor's DRI "World Outlook" (Fourth Quarter 1999 ), SRI "World Petrochemicals" (January 2000 ); Petroleum Economist (May 2000 ).

** GDP per Capita based on 1998 'Purchasing Power Parity' estimates as per Standard & Poor's DRI analysis (Fourth Quarter 1999 ).

Representative Developing Region

Producers

1999 - 2020 Growth1998 GDP per

Capita** (US$)

Inflation

(CPI)

Economic OutlookEnergy Resource Position (% world)

Methanol % world capacity

Chemical Feedstock Outlook

Real GDP

Gas Reserves

Oil Reserves

Ethylene %

world capacity

INDUSTRY TRENDS SEEM FAVORABLE FOR MID EAST COMPARED TO OTHER DEVELOPING REGION PRODUCERS…

…AND SAUDI ARABIA SEEMS WELL PLACED WITHIN MID EAST.

Page 9: By Mohammed H. Al-Mady Vice Chairman & Managing Director Role of Primary Industrial Projects in the National Economy

Chart 5

1999 -2004

2004 -2009

1999 -2004

2004 -2009

1999 2004

North America 3% 3% 3% 5% 4% 3% 2210 2450 2700

Western Europe 1% 2% 1% 4% 2% 2% 295 -610 -1500

Japan 4% -1% 0% 3% -1% 0% -5 1400 550

Traditional Markets 2% 2% 2% 4% 3% 2% 2500 3240 1750

Eastern Europe 2% 1% 2% -3% 2% 3% 245 750 50

Latin America 3% 10% 4% 7% 11% 5% -245 -890 100

Other Asia (ex-Japan) 11% 6% 5% 11% 7% 8% -3800 -5020 -6250

Mid-East+Africa 8% 10% 5% 7% 11% 7% 1300 1920 4350

Developing Regions 8% 7% 5% 9% 9% 7% -2745 -3990 -1800

of which Saudi Arabia nc 11% 5% 13% 10% 7% 1580 2550 4300+

WORLD 3% 4% 3% 5% 4% 3% 0 0 0

* Ethylene + Ethylene contained within major ethylene derivative products (polyethylene, EDC/PVC, ethylene glycol, styrene and polystyrene).

** Sources: Tecnon "World Petrochemical Surveys" ( 1985 & 1995 ), SRI "World Petrochemicals" ( 2000 ), and Chem Systems "Ethylene Global Review" ( 1999 ).

REGION

Actual 1984-1999

Actual 1984-1999

World Ethylene and Ethylene Derivatives*

Estimated**

Ethylene Capacity Growth

Estimated** Estimated**

Net Exports Volume (ooo tons)Consumption Growth

Ethylene + Derviatives*

Actual

1989

MIGRATION TO DEVELOPING REGIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE…

…WITH MID-EAST AND SAUDI ARABIA AS MAJOR BENEFICIARIES.

Page 10: By Mohammed H. Al-Mady Vice Chairman & Managing Director Role of Primary Industrial Projects in the National Economy

Agenda

Global Petrochemical Trends. Migration to “The Best Cost” Locations. Evolution to Higher Value “Downstream” Products.

Page 11: By Mohammed H. Al-Mady Vice Chairman & Managing Director Role of Primary Industrial Projects in the National Economy

Chart 5

1999 -2004

2004 -2009

1999 -2004

2004 -2009

1999 2004

North America 3% 3% 3% 5% 4% 3% 2210 2450 2700

Western Europe 1% 2% 1% 4% 2% 2% 295 -610 -1500

Japan 4% -1% 0% 3% -1% 0% -5 1400 550

Traditional Markets 2% 2% 2% 4% 3% 2% 2500 3240 1750

Eastern Europe 2% 1% 2% -3% 2% 3% 245 750 50

Latin America 3% 10% 4% 7% 11% 5% -245 -890 100

Other Asia (ex-Japan) 11% 6% 5% 11% 7% 8% -3800 -5020 -6250

Mid-East+Africa 8% 10% 5% 7% 11% 7% 1300 1920 4350

Developing Regions 8% 7% 5% 9% 9% 7% -2745 -3990 -1800

of which Saudi Arabia nc 11% 5% 13% 10% 7% 1580 2550 4300+

WORLD 3% 4% 3% 5% 4% 3% 0 0 0

* Ethylene + Ethylene contained within major ethylene derivative products (polyethylene, EDC/PVC, ethylene glycol, styrene and polystyrene).

** Sources: Tecnon "World Petrochemical Surveys" ( 1985 & 1995 ), SRI "World Petrochemicals" ( 2000 ), and Chem Systems "Ethylene Global Review" ( 1999 ).

REGION

Actual 1984-1999

Actual 1984-1999

World Ethylene and Ethylene Derivatives*

Estimated**

Ethylene Capacity Growth

Estimated** Estimated**

Net Exports Volume (ooo tons)Consumption Growth

Ethylene + Derviatives*

Actual

1989

MIGRATION TO DEVELOPING REGIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE…

…WITH MID-EAST AND SAUDI ARABIA AS MAJOR BENEFICIARIES.

Page 12: By Mohammed H. Al-Mady Vice Chairman & Managing Director Role of Primary Industrial Projects in the National Economy

Agenda

Global Petrochemical Trends. Migration to “The Best Cost” Locations. Evolution to Higher Value “Downstream” Products. Impact on Saudi Arabian Economy.

Page 13: By Mohammed H. Al-Mady Vice Chairman & Managing Director Role of Primary Industrial Projects in the National Economy

Chart 6

Primary Manufacturing 0.6 1.2 14 31 28% 6% 15% % Total 2% 1% 5% 7% - - -

Oil and Related 18 99 133 210 3% 4% 3% % Total 66% 85% 46% 49% - - -

All Other ** 9 16 143 192 25% 2% 11% % Total 32% 14% 50% 44% - - -

Total ** 28 116 290 432 10% 3% 6% % Total 100% 100% 100% 100% - - -

Source: Ministry of Planning 5-Year Plan "Facts and Figures" .

* Data show n on current price basis.** Total ex cludes estimated Gov ernment Serv ices and Community and Social Serv ices ex penditures (equal to SR 111 billion in 1997) .

1974 -

1997

Saudi Arabia Gross Domestic Product*

Major Sector

Billion Saudi Riyals* Compound Growth Rate

19971972 1974 19841974 -

1984

1984 -

1997

PRIMARY MANUFACTURING HAS GROWN RAPIDLY...

...WITH AN INDIRECT 'MULTIPLIER' EFFECT ESTIMATED AT 5-8x ON DIVERSIFYING ECONOMY AS A WHOLE.

Page 14: By Mohammed H. Al-Mady Vice Chairman & Managing Director Role of Primary Industrial Projects in the National Economy

Chart 7

1974 - 1984 - 1974 -

1984 1997 1997

Primary Manufacturing 2% 1% 5% 7% 28% 7% 15%

Oil and Related 66% 85% 46% 49% 3% 4% 3%

All Other ** 32% 14% 50% 44% 25% 2% 11%

Total ** 100% 100% 100% 100% 10% 3% 6%

Manufacturing Indicators

Number Of Factories 250 357 1196 2533 - 6% 9%Direct Employment (ooo) 19 28 133 228 *** - 4% 10%

Gas Use (bill. cu. m.) ****

Gas P roduced - 47 26 45 **** - 4% 0% Gas Utilized - 6 23 44 **** - 5% 9%

SABIC P roduction (million tons) - - 2 24 - 17% -

Source: Ministry of Planning 5-Year Plan "Facts and Figures"; SABIC Marketing estimates.

* Data show n on current price basis.

** Total ex cludes estimated Gov ernment Serv ices and Community and Social Serv ices ex penditures (equal to SR 111 billion in 1997) .

*** Using a 5-8x multiplier, SABIC's 16,000 direct jobs w ould help create and support up to 100,000+ jobs elsew here in the economy .

**** Sources: Ministry of Planning summary of Ministry of Petroleum data (1974 and 1984); SABIC estimates reflecting Aramco data (1997).

Saudi Arabian Gross Domestic Product

Major Sector

Percent of GDP* Compound Growth

19971972 1974 1984

CHEMICAL INDUSTRY EXPANSION PROVIDES SOLID FOUNDATION FOR MANUFACTURING GROWTH...

...BY UTILIZATION OF 'STRANDED' GAS RESOURCES.

Page 15: By Mohammed H. Al-Mady Vice Chairman & Managing Director Role of Primary Industrial Projects in the National Economy

Chart 8

Chemicals, P lastics, Metals 1.9 1% 15.1 7%

Crude Oil and Oil Products 128 97% 206 90%

All Other Exports 3 2% 6 3%

TOTAL K SA EXPORTS 132 100% 227 100%

BALANCE OF TRADE 1997Chemicals, Plastics, Metals (only) Chemicals Only

Imports 8.7

Exports 9.9

NET IMPORTS -1.2

Source: Ministry of Planning 5-Year Plan "Facts and Figures"; Economist Intelligence Reports "EIU" (May 2000).

Saudi Arabian Imports and Exports (billion Saudi Riyals)

KSA EXPORTS

1984 1997

SR billion %

15.1

5.1

1984

25.8

1.9

23.9

SR billion %

1997

20.2

CHEMICAL INDUSTRY EXPANSIONS HAVE 'BEGUN' TO DIVERSIFY AND EXPAND TRADE...

Page 16: By Mohammed H. Al-Mady Vice Chairman & Managing Director Role of Primary Industrial Projects in the National Economy

Agenda

Global Petrochemical Trends. Migration to “The Best Cost” Locations. Evolution to Higher Value “Downstream” Products. Impact on Saudi Arabian Economy. Saudi Arabia’s Investment Prospects.

Page 17: By Mohammed H. Al-Mady Vice Chairman & Managing Director Role of Primary Industrial Projects in the National Economy

Agenda

Global Petrochemical Trends. Migration to “The Best Cost” Locations. Evolution to Higher Value “Downstream” Products. Impact on Saudi Arabian Economy. Saudi Arabia’s Investment Prospects. Saudi Arabia’s Current Situation.

Page 18: By Mohammed H. Al-Mady Vice Chairman & Managing Director Role of Primary Industrial Projects in the National Economy

Chart 4

1999 2004 1999 2004

Latin AmericaArgentina 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 6067 3.9% 2.3%

Venezuela 0.6% 1.4% 4.0% 3.3% 2.8% 7.1% 9458 3.5% 9.4%

South AsiaIndonesia 0.6% 0.5% 2.8% 2.3% 1.4% 0.5% 3552 4.8% 7.8%

Malaysia 0.7% 1.3% 1.9% 1.7% 1.6% 0.4% 10130 4.2% 4.1%

Mid East + AfricaAbu Dhabi - 0.5% - - 3.8% 9.4% 15898 3.9% 2.5%

Algeria 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 3.1% 0.9% 3529 4.0% 9.1%

K uwait 0.7% 0.6% - 1.5% 1.0% 9.2% 9443 3.7% 2.0%

Iran 0.8% 1.0% 0.3% 1.9% 15.8% 8.8% 4950 3.9% 5.0%

Qatar 0.6% 0.9% 0.6% 1.9% 5.8% 0.4% 16383 4.2% 2.5%

Saudi Arabia 3.5% 4.8% 11.3% 11.2% 4.0% 25.6% 11276 5.6% 1.9%

Mid East+Africa (total) 8% 10% 17% 22% 42% 74% 3880 4.4% 6.9%

WORLD 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 4970 2.9% 3.3%

* Sources: Standard & Poor's DRI "World Outlook" (Fourth Quarter 1999 ), SRI "World Petrochemicals" (January 2000 ); Petroleum Economist (May 2000 ).

** GDP per Capita based on 1998 'Purchasing Power Parity' estimates as per Standard & Poor's DRI analysis (Fourth Quarter 1999 ).

Representative Developing Region

Producers

1999 - 2020 Growth1998 GDP per

Capita** (US$)

Inflation

(CPI)

Economic OutlookEnergy Resource Position (% world)

Methanol % world capacity

Chemical Feedstock Outlook

Real GDP

Gas Reserves

Oil Reserves

Ethylene %

world capacity

INDUSTRY TRENDS SEEM FAVORABLE FOR MID EAST COMPARED TO OTHER DEVELOPING REGION PRODUCERS…

…AND SAUDI ARABIA SEEMS WELL PLACED WITHIN MID EAST.

Page 19: By Mohammed H. Al-Mady Vice Chairman & Managing Director Role of Primary Industrial Projects in the National Economy

Agenda

Global Petrochemical Trends. Migration to “The Best Cost” Locations. Evolution to Higher Value “Downstream” Products. Impact on Saudi Arabian Economy. Saudi Arabia’s Investment Prospects. Saudi Arabia’s Current Situation. Future Saudi Arabia Business Development Prospects.

Page 20: By Mohammed H. Al-Mady Vice Chairman & Managing Director Role of Primary Industrial Projects in the National Economy

Agenda

Global Petrochemical Trends. Migration to “The Best Cost” Locations. Evolution to Higher Value “Downstream” Products. Impact on Saudi Arabian Economy. Saudi Arabia’s Investment Prospects. Saudi Arabia’s Current Situation. Future Saudi Arabia Business Development Prospects. Partnership Financial Track Record.

Page 21: By Mohammed H. Al-Mady Vice Chairman & Managing Director Role of Primary Industrial Projects in the National Economy

Chart 9

> Partner Average Annual Operating Income as % Initial Equity: 42%/year

8 JOINT VENTURES > Average Cash Dividends Paid to Partners as % Initial Equity: 28%/year

( 11 PARTNERS )WHICH BEGAN > None of the 8 Joint Ventures Gave SABIC Partners a Negative Return.

OPERATIONS IN

EARLY - MID 1980'S > Cash Dividends Paid Rate of Return:

> Compound Growth of Partner Equity Value:

Source: SABIC Treasury Department

* Note : combined financials shown assume all joint ventures began in 1987 -- which

would tend to slightly overstate actual returns of those joint ventures with earlier start-ups.

1987 STARTUP

Total Return to Partners (1987 - 1999 ) 36%/ year

1987-1999 SABIC PARTNER RETURNS *

25%/year

11%/year

PAST FINANCIAL RESULTS WERE GENERALLY SATISFACTORY…

…EVEN THOUGH 1987-1999 WAS A VOLATILE PERIOD …FOR MANY GLOBAL PETROCHEMICAL COMPANIES.

Page 22: By Mohammed H. Al-Mady Vice Chairman & Managing Director Role of Primary Industrial Projects in the National Economy

Chart 10

> Add value to our natural resources> Supplement traditional oil exports> Introduce new technologies> Provide basic linkage backwards to raw material and forward to variety of secondary industries

> Diversify economy and make a profit in the process

P rinciple

Objectives

U ltimate Aim

> Make use of comparative advantages available to us

EXCERPTS FROM SABIC'S 4th ANNUAL REPORT ( 1980 )

20 YEARS AGO, SEVERAL GOALS ESTABLISHED FOR SABIC AND PRIMARY INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE KINGDOM...

… 20 YEARS LATER, GOALS ARE NOT MUCH DIFFERENT.

WHAT IS DIFFERENT IS THE KINGDOM'S ABILITY TO SHOW INVESTORS A TANGIBLE TRACK RECORD OF INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT SUCCESS.

Page 23: By Mohammed H. Al-Mady Vice Chairman & Managing Director Role of Primary Industrial Projects in the National Economy