The Urbanization of Sub-Saharan Africa

by Col S. D. Aiken, USMCGlobalSecurity.org

Only a hundred years ago, there were no cities with a population of 5 million inhabitants. In the year 2005 it is estimated that there are over 60 such cities. Half of the world's population of 6 billion people live in urbanized areas which cover only 0.7% of the total earth surface.

By 2050, the percentage is projected to be 80-85 living in cities….

Agenda

• References• Introduction• Definition• Extent of Growth• Problems• Solutions

UN

References• World Urbanization Prospects; 2003 Revision, United

Nations• UN Human Settlements Programme Support to NEPAD• “Charting a Framework for Sustainable Urban Centres in

Africa,” by Christine Auclair (UN Chronicle Online Edition)

• “Managing Rapid Urbanization in Africa: Some Aspects for Policy,” by Kempe Ronald Hope, Journal of Third World Studies

• Spotlight: Africa, Regional Overview, web.mit.edu/urbanupgrading/upgrading/case-examples

• Building Safer Cities: The Future of Disaster Risk, World Bank, http://www.proventionconsortium.org/themes/default/pdfs/Safer_Cities.pdf

Introduction

“By 2020, 85 percent of the world’s inhabitants will be crowded into coastal cities – cities generally lacking the infrastructure required to support their burgeoning populations. Under these conditions, long simmering ethnic, nationalist, and economic tensions will explode and increase the potential of crises requiring U.S. intervention.”

- “The Strategic Corporal, Leadership in the Three Block War,” General C.C. Krulak, Commandant of the Marine Corps, January 1999

Definition

Urbanization:

• The fraction of population in the urban sector (UN)

• The increase over time in the population of cities in relation to the region's rural population (Wikipedia)

• The social process whereby cities grow and societies become more urban (The FreeDictionary)

Definition, con’t

“The process of urbanization is intrinsic to economic and social development... Population growth in urban areas needs to be monitored and harmonized so that it does not create unmanageable densities and population concentrations. High population growth without accompanying infrastructure development, adequate supply of basic services, accessible and affordable land and shelter, sufficient employment and economic opportunities is conductive to urban disorders.”

- Istanbul +5, Guidelines for Country Reporting, UN Statistics Division

Sub-Saharan Urban Population Growth to 2025

Year 1990 2010 2025 % Growth (‘90-’25)

Sub-Saharan

Africa

527 937 1,362 258%

Urban Population

149 387 705 473%

Urban % of Total

28% 41% 52%

Population figures in millions

(J.L. Venard, Urban Planning and Environment in Sub-Saharan Africa,UNCED Paper No. 5, 1995)

Rates of urbanization in Africa are the highest in the world!

Sub-Saharan City Growth to 2020

Size of population 1990 2020 % change

More than 5 million 0 11 -1 - 5 million 18 59 536%

500,000 - 1 million 26 75 288%100,000 - 500,000 180 585 325%20,000 - 100,000 790 2,200 278%

(J.L. Venard, Urban Planning and Environment in Sub-Saharan Africa,UNCED Paper No. 5, 1995)

52% of the population

World Development Indicators Urbanization and Income Growth

1970-95

(World Development Indicators, 2001, The World Bank)

Rates of urban economic growth in Africa are the lowest in the world!

Projected African Water Supply through 2020

Year

Population (millions)

(African Water Resources, World Bank Technical Paper no. 331, 1996)

Over 200 millionunserved

Projected African Urban Sanitation through 2020

Year

Population (millions)

(African Water Resources, World Bank Technical Paper no. 331, 1996)

Over 300 millionunserved

Almost one-half of urban Africans will be living in slums by 2020!

Problems

• African cities expanding without sufficient economic growth

• Lack of basic services• Existing developmental problems in

countries (lack of education, poor health and sanitation, poverty, hunger, poor water resources, corruption)

• The continent’s “Perfect Storm?”

Solutions

• Improve urban economics– Promote trade and private investment in

urban manufacturing and service sectors– Promote “subterranean sector employment”

• Removing regulatory constraints• Simplifying bureaucratic procedures• Eliminating police harassment• Provide technical assistance and low-interest

credit (micro-investment opportunities)

(Hope, “Managing Rapid Urbanization in Africa: Some Aspects for Policy”)

Solutions, con’t

• Deconcentration of employment– From major urban areas to secondary cities or

other parts of country through economic incentives

• Improved health care– Emphasize comprehensive preventive care

towards pregnant mothers, infants, children

(Hope, “Managing Rapid Urbanization in Africa: Some Aspects for Policy”)

Solutions, con’t

• Improved housing policies– Eliminate bureaucratic obstacles and

corruption to encourage private construction and provision efforts

– Increase availability of housing finance– Encourage upgrade of slums by private

investors– Encourage self-help and cooperative building

projects

(Hope, “Managing Rapid Urbanization in Africa: Some Aspects for Policy”; Spotlight: Africa, Regional Overview)

Solutions, con’t

• Development of rural sector– Reduce landlessness, joblessness,

hopelessness and corruption. Otherwise,• Breading ground for unrest• Leads to urban migration

– Comprehensive plan covering rural employment, services

– Raise standard of living of poor, rural residents

– Prioritization???

(Hope, “Managing Rapid Urbanization in Africa: Some Aspects for Policy”)

A US Marine from 2nd Battalion, 6th Marine Regiment enters a house to search as an elderly Iraqi woman in seen inside a kitchen during a foot patrol in the downtown restive city of Fallujah, 50 kms west of Baghdad. (AFP/Mauricio Lima)

Questions?