Technology & Science Intelligence.By Alejandro Sanz

Place: Zurich

ISOLATION IS A NON-WINNING RISK.

2.

3.

The What.

1.

TECHNOLOGY INTELLIGENCE (TI).

4.

The identification and assessment of technological advances

critical to the company’s competitive position.

NOT URGENT BUT IMPORTANT.

5.

Not Urgent / Not Important

Non-productive busy work - Phone callsEscape from Quadrant I - “Watching TV”

Urgent / Not Important

Interruptions - Some meetingsUrgency creates the illusion of importance

Urgent / Important

Crises - Pressing problemsDeadline-driven work - Firefighting

Not Urgent / Important

Long-range planning - VisioningAnticipate problems - Invest in future

I

III

II

IV

Typical location of technology intelligence andTechnology/business/market roadmaps

▪Put in motion today what is necessary in order to have the right technology, processes, components, and experience in place to meet the future needs for

products and services” (Motorola)

ATTRIBUTES OF TI (AND CI IN GENERAL).

6.

-Descriptive: what is done (in the firm’s environment)

- Anticipative: what will be done (in the firm’s environment)

- Prospective: what may be done (by the firm)

- Proscriptive: what cannot be done (by the firm)

- Prescriptive: what should be done (by the firm)

- Prohibitive: what must not be done (by the firm)

The landscape

ATTRIBUTES OF TI (AND CI IN GENERAL) : THE INNER VIEW.

7.October 30, 2007 © SKF Group Slide 7

-Descriptive: what is done (in the firm’s environment)

- Anticipative: what will be done (in the firm’s environment)

- Prospective: what may be done (by the firm)

- Proscriptive: what cannot be done (by the firm)

- Prescriptive: what should be done (by the firm)

- Prohibitive: what must not be done (by the firm)

The inner view

(Intellectual Asset Management IAM.)

TOOLS AND INFORMATION SUPPORTING DECISIONS.

8.

-Descriptive: what is done (in the firm’s environment)

- Anticipative: what will be done (in the firm’s environment)

- Prospective: what may be done (by the firm)

- Proscriptive: what cannot be done (by the firm)

- Prescriptive: what should be done (by the firm)

- Prohibitive: what must not be done (by the firm)

Supporting decisions.

SOME CAUTION NOTES 1/2.

9.

-Even though it is a process, TI is also people-driven. It is a mindset.

- It is a multi-sources, multi-step, multi-functional exercise with complex interrelations.

- Supports decisions by making Hypothesis-Driven recommendations and presenting alternatives.

- Research-driven TI is only valid for technology-based business.

- It requires emphasis on the ICT to support it

SOME CAUTION NOTES 2/2.

10.

-Begin with an understanding of the yourself (culture, assets, core-competences) and the factors that affects your industry (segment) and your firm.

-Targets a “greater picture” putting together pieces of a puzzle.

- It is basically comparative (your strength/weakness, or your position vis-à-vis your rivals)

-The level of complexity in a controller (here TI) must match the level of complexity in he environment (the firm) in order for the controller to manage he environment. This is called the law of requisite variety on a system approach.

BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE.

11.

WHAT DO YOU WANT TI FOR ?.

12.

Strategic Planning System

Evaluates opportunities/threats in selected businesses/functions; projects future positions and indicators of new competitors

Warnings System

Summarizes threats, develops implications and recommends

possible responses

Project SystemFully integrates and interprets information on a specific issue within the company

CurrentAwareness

System

Provides a regular report on current news and implications on company businesses

Strategic Intelligence

Tactical Intelligence

High

Low

FocusPresent Future

Effort, Skill, and Cost Required

Output

TI BENEFITS.

13.

TIME

Pro

gre

ss

Technology

search

- Avoiding surprises

- Reduced risk

- Pledging/undertaking

- Early trend identification

- Save time

- New options

- Avoiding false leads

- Reduced peripheral invention

- Effective Strategy / tactics

- Product Positioning

- Early warning of obsolescence

THE FULL “WHAT” OF TI.

14.

NO SURPRISES.

15.

TARGETING.

16.

INNER VIEW.

17.

THE TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY.

18.

INTEGRATING PAST-PRESENT-FUTURE.

19.

Patent

Department

Group

Management

Future technology

Assets/acquisition

Past/present

Intellectual Asset Management

CompetitorsActivities

& developments

Customer and Market trends

& developments

What is Happening

At Universities,

IndustryOther fields

Corporate vision and technology strategy

①

②

PESTEL

FROM DATA TO ADVANTAGE.

20.

Data

Information(who, what

when, where)

Intelligence

(how, why)

Wisdom

JudgmentDecisions

Competitive

advantage

Filtered andOrganized

AnalyzedInsight

Stru

ctu

red

an

dC

om

mu

nic

ated

Implemented

21.

The Focus.

2.

TECHNOLOGY INTELLIGENCE FOCUS.

22.

TIME

Pro

gre

ss

Technology

search

-Focused monitoring of technology progress

- Actual/potential competitors

- Technologies in development

- Technology trends

- Alternative technologies

- Opportunity generation

- Broad technology scanning

- Potential competitors

- Pre-commercial science &

Technology

- Science breakthroughs and

directions

- Problem solving, answering

questions, addressing needs/issues

- Actual competitors

- Commercial products/process/service

- Market/industry trends

TOP-DOWN, SHORT-MEDIUM TERM.

23.TIME

Pro

gre

ss

Technology

search

- IPC search

- Partners

- Technology valuation

- IP opportunity/thread

- Players vs technology

- Alternative

- New options

- Avoiding false leads

- Risk assessment

- Competitors product

announcement

- Product Positioning

- Market positioning

-Functions

- Properties

-Trade-off

- KIT identification

①

④

②

③

Informed decisions Actions⑤

BOTTOM-UP, MEDIUM LONG TERM.

24.TIME

Pro

gre

ss

Technology

search

-What performance drive technology

- What are the barriers for substitution

- Dominant design, dominant technology

- Where are we (where is our competition)

- Technical options

- How fast is technology evolving and

who is pushing it?

- What is patented and what is not.

①

④

②

③

-Key industry investments

-Possible alternative sourcing

-Alliances, M&A

-New competences (HR)

-Procurement policies

-Change in customer perception

- Predator or prey

- New customers, New competitors, New

products, New business model

-Strategic plan modification and related

actions. ⑤Tech B

Tech A

Leverageable technologies

Replication from other industries

Current and future

Tech scouting

Focus on “should”, not “can”.

“jumping” the S-curve requires justifying

If, When and How it should be done and

properly anticipating the necessary

structural changes in strategy, product

and organization.

⑥

TOP-DOWN, MEDIUM-LONG TERM.

25.TIME

Pro

gre

ss

Technology

search

- Function DNA

- Battle ground

- Technology valuation

- IP opportunity/thread

- Players vs technology

- Time to market

- Parallel tech Dev

monitoring

- Knowledge sources

- Risk assessment

- Megatrends

- Strategic positioning

- Product/ function

definition

- Competitive strategy

- Product configuration

- Tech Enablers

- Function-technology

matrix

- Competence mapping

- Trade-off

- KIT identification

①

②

③

Make or buy Roadmap⑤

INFORMATION

POROSITY

SURFACE

TRANSPARENCY

FLEXIBILITY

COLOUR

TEMPERATURE

FRAGMENTATION

DENSITY

SYMMETRY

GEOMETRY

LINEARITY

STATE

MULTIPLICITYODOUR

TASTESOUND

PULSATION

CHEMICAL ACTIVITY

BIOLOGICAL ACTIVITY

STRENGTH

BRITTLENESS

MATERIAL

TOLERANCE

RESISTIVITY

FIELDS

PERMEABILITY

STIFFNESS

PRESSURE

CRYSTALLINITY

EXPANSION

SIZE

STABILITY

VOLUME

SPEED

HOMOGENEITY

LONGEVETY

INDEX

INFORMATION

POROSITY

SURFACE

TRANSPARENCY

FLEXIBILITY

COLOUR

TEMPERATURE

FRAGMENTATION

DENSITY

SYMMETRY

GEOMETRY

LINEARITY

STATE

MULTIPLICITYODOUR

TASTESOUND

PULSATION

CHEMICAL ACTIVITY

BIOLOGICAL ACTIVITY

STRENGTH

BRITTLENESS

MATERIAL

TOLERANCE

RESISTIVITY

FIELDS

PERMEABILITY

STIFFNESS

PRESSURE

CRYSTALLINITY

EXPANSION

SIZE

STABILITY

VOLUME

SPEED

HOMOGENEITY

LONGEVETY

INDEX

ROADMAPPING FOCUS.

26.

Key functions

Key Technologies

Time

Function

roadmap

Technology

roadmap

Function

Technology

matrix

Market needs

Product

Roadmap

Internal Analysis

External Analysis

TECH-INTEL & ROADMAPPING.

27.

Push •Potential Product & Services

Offerings: Both Pull & Push•Strategic Capability Needs

Product & Service Roadmap

Pull

Market Roadmap

•Knowledge of current & future Market / Business Opportunities

•Company Strategies •Environmental Stringencies• Industry Trends•Regulatory Drivers•Competition

“Know Why”

“Know What”

Pull

•Progressive, Alternative & Disruptive Solutions / Processes

• Intra & Inter -Structure •Partnerships•Suppliers

Technology & Process Roadmap“Know How”

Drivers / Thrusts

Needs /Requirements

Influences

Options

Push

Maintainfocus

TECH-INTEL AND PORTER’S FIVE FORCES.

28.

SubstitutesCompetitive

industry

Customers

Suppliers

Newentrants

Technological know-

how

Degree of rivalry

Suppliers’technology

Suppliers’Power

Val

ue

Ch

ain

Buyers’technology

Buyers’power

Alternative technologies

Barriers to entry

Focus on technological Aspects:

-Product technologies- Production technologies- Material technologies-Information technologies

How can the potentialof product technologies which accomplish the

same primary function be evaluated

from the perspective of a

technology owner.

29.

The Tools.

3.

TECHNOLOGY INTELLIGENCE SOURCING.

30.

TIME

Pro

gre

ss

Technology

search

- Patent information

- Technology analysis of competitor releases

- Customers technology needs

- Partnerships (ours and others)

- Materials intelligence

- Technology scouting

- Active University / technology

scanning

- Scientific publications

- Strategic positioning

- Competitors and market Intelligence

- Roadmap for products/process/service

- Market/industry trends

SIGNAL INTENSITY.

31.

DiscussionsGray

literature

Scientificpapers

R&D alliancesJoint Ventures

Patents

ProcessDevelopment

Productannouncement

Productsales

New products introduction time line

Sig

nal in

tensity

TOOL DIVERSITY.

32.

DiscussionsGray

literature

Scientificpapers

R&D alliancesJoint Ventures

Patents

ProcessDevelopment

Productannouncement

Productsales

New products introduction time line

Sig

na

l in

ten

sity

Specialized

Services

(Baverstam)

PiCarta

Nerac

TUDelft lib

Brit. Lib

NineSigme

Creax

Vantage point

Yet2

Tekscout

Materials

Intelligence

Grantadesign

Cambridge

/ASM

Sagentia

Input from

Business,

Market and

Competitor

intelligence

BUILDING THE INTELLIGENCE KNOWLEDGE BASE.

33.

SOURCES

•Experts, Industries•Universities•Consultants/Firms

•Internal (employees)•External

•News media•Regulation •Patents•Government sources•Electronics databases

ANALYSTS

Intelligence Collectors

Information Services

Acquisition of Information and Production of Intelligence

Go & see

Sit & read

Tools/IT/Software support

INTELLIGENCE PRODUCTS

•Risk assessment•Scenarios prediction •Roadmaps•War game workshop•Intelligence briefing•Options/response modeling•Analytical alert

•Intelligence reports•Research Reports

•Newsletter•On line information•Spider Newsline

Corporate Intelligence Standard

DIFFERENT SOURCES.

34.October 30, 2007 © SKF Group Slide 34

Secondary Sources

Competitors & Customers•Publications

• Product Brochures• Annual Reports• Press Releases• Scientific Papers

•Websites•Conference Exhibits•Help Wanted Ad

Library (Corporate & Others)•Directories•Trade & Financial Publications•Local Newspapers•Databases•Electronic Search/Clipping Services•Market/Industry research Reports•Internal Memos & trip reports

Academia•Literature/Publications•Proceedings of Professional Meetings•University Programs with (corporate Sponsorship)•Case studies

State•Environmental Protection Agency•Patent & Trade Mark Office•Department of Commerce•Department of Labor•International Trade Administration•OSHA•European Community•Clepa Automotive suppliers

Others•Employment office•Tax assessor•Court cases•Zoning/Planning office•Etc.

Primary Sources

Internal•Sales Force•Purchasing/Procurement•Regulatory/Law Department•R&D Technology•Manufacturing•HR•Senior Management worldwide

External•Customers•Distributors, Brokers, Agents•Suppliers/Vendors•Trade Association•Trade shows. Conferences, Seminars•Consultants, Industry/academic•Financial/Securities Analysts•Executive Recruiters•Journalists•Special interest groups•Labor Groups/Unions

Go & see

Sit & read

INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS: A COMBINATION OF TECHNIQUES.

35.

Competitor analysis– SWOT analysis

– Blind-spot analysis

– Alliance analysis

– Strategic hypotheses

– War gaming

– Competitor benchmarking

Market Intelligence– Win-loss analysis

– Competitor-customer value chain

analysis

Financial Analysis– Cash flow analysis

– Cost/Ratio analysis

– Credit/debt analysis

– Sustainable growth rate analysis

Organizational Analysis– Organization and personalities

Environmental Assessment– Regulatory and legislative analysis

– Anti-trust matter

Industry Analysis– Porter’s 5 forces analysis

Technology Assessment– Product & manufacturing

– Technology forecast

Forecasting– Scenario analysis

– Wheel implication

– Trend analysis

36.

Key

Technology

Topics.

4.

TECHNOLOGY INTELLIGENCE KITS.

37.

-When will the current technology become mature? That is when will it no longer make the changes customer want in their key drivers?

- How well does the current technology allows to make changes in features likely to be the next drivers?

- How does other applications or industries address similar needs?

- Whose technologies might be adaptable to your company?

COMPETITORS / PARTNERS KITs 1/2.

38.

-What technologies are our competitors investing in? What are their relative skills and capabilities?

- To what extent our current technologies provide us a competitive advantage based on IP, skill or investment barriers

- What features do our products and services need to have to be competitive? How do we manage IP?

COMPETITORS / PARTNERS KITs 2/2.

39.

-Who is working on the new technologies?

- With whom we might partner? What alliances are being formed between them and our competitors.

- What motive might motivate your custormer to use your products. Which needs now serve drivers and what changes in the usage patterns or work environment are liketly to give rise to new needs and drivers?

TECH-INTEL ROLE IN PROJECT SELECTION AND DEVELOPMENT.

40.

-Tech-intel coupled with market-intel can test hypotheses regarding the readiness of the market for something new.

- In case of projects, Technology intelligence can position the projects specifications, timing and launch plans needed to develop a competitive product.

-Tech-Intel has a role finding external technologies (acquired through acquisitions, licensing or alliances) to solve a problem and to manage risk.

-Tech scouting identifies unexpected opportunities or development partners.

41.

Down-to-Earth

Approach.

5.

FROM A TO B.

42.

-Planning complexity (similar to R&D)

-The known Unknowns

-Fact based management

Future complexity-Unknown Unknowns -Flux and Unpredictability- Emerging patterns

A B

PLEASE REMEMBER.

43.

-You could be right, but the market could be wrong a lot longer than you.

- Managing is creating a conversation.

- All stories are incomplete. There is always more than the story.

-Dominant design is a retrospective concept.

- What is sustaining technology for a company is disrupting for others. It is not an attribute of the product but the company.

- You cannot replicate luck. You do not manage by anomalies.

DON’T FORGET THIS.

44.

The smaller the user, the less suable they are and therefore the less effective IP is. Carefully check breaching.

Do not marry the person that makes you the happiest but the one that makes you the least unhappy. Look at the negatives first.

FINALLY.

45.

Innovation DOES NOT start with ideas. Innovation stars with information and insights.

Innovation does not require owning technology.

You need access to technology AND needs.

Do not make innovation easy; make innovation possible.

A good decisions is based on a good question

BASIC PRINCIPLES.

46.

Intelligence is insurance NOT education

Winning is fun, cheating is not.

Criminal law is based on “beyond reasonable doubt” while civil law is based on “the burden of evidence”

Risk: there is no such a thing a bad weather, there is bad clothing

Risk is not about unknowns but about exposure.

Reorganize is easy, reorient is difficult.

THANK YOU.

InnovAction.

41.

Back Up For

Discussion.

6.

BASIC BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE OPERATIONS.

49.

Collection and

reporting

Analysis and forecasting

Information processing and dissemination

Basic Operations

Provides early warning: opportunities and threads

Supports tactical decisions and buinsess operations

Active dossiers

Supports strategic planning and strategy process

Competitors

Technology

Customers

Patents

WHAT TECHNOLOGY.

50.

TECHNOLOGY COMPETITIVE POSITION

Clear leader

Strong Favorable Tenable Weak

Base

TRL 9

Key

TRL 6-8

Pacing

TRL 4-6

Emerging

TRL 1-3

-Essential in the

Business-Little competitive impact

-Well embodied inProducts & process-High impact today

-Under experimentation-Competitive advantagelikely to be important

-Early research stage-Potential unknownbut promising

Likely waste of resources

Opportunities forPresent competitive

advantage

Alarm signal forsurvival

Alarm signal for present

Industryaverage

OpportunitiesFor future

Competitiveadvantage

Alarm signalfor

future

MISSION CRITICAL AND CORE CONCEPTS.

51.

CoreProcess creates

differentiation that wins customers

ContextAll other processes

Mission CriticalProcess shortfall creates

serious and immediate risk

EnablingAll other processes

Reward

Ris

k

IV

IIIII

I

I

II III

IV

SUPPORTING DECISIONS.

52.

II. Deploy

I. Develop

III. Manage

IV. Offload

Core Context

Mission Critical

Enabling

Invest some Some resources

here

Invest MORESome resources

here

Extract some resources

here

Extract MOREresources

here

ROLES & FOCUS.

53.

AC

B

IV

IIIII

I

Inven

tio

n

Zo

ne

Deployment

Zone

Op

timiz

atio

n

Zo

ne

Cre

ate

new

co

re, a

ttra

ct

flag

ship

cu

sto

mer

s, a

nd

sh

eph

erd

th

e c

ateg

ory

acr

oss

th

e ch

asm

Deploy core at scale on time, on spec, and on budget,

managing mission-critical riskO

ptim

ize and

de

-risk p

rocesse

s to extract

resou

rces from

con

text to

repu

rpo

se for co

re

Focus

ACTION & METRICS.

54.

AC

B

IV

IIIII

I

Inven

tio

n

Zo

ne

Deployment

Zone

Op

timiz

atio

n

Zo

ne

Vision

&

Collaboration

Organization

&

Control

Execution

&

Competition

Sustainable

Differentiation

Profit

Margins

Market

ShareFocus

HIGH PERFORMANCE TECHNOLOGY SOURCING.

55.

S

OR

P

Strategy:

- Integrate/align the strategy for

technology driven innovation with

business strategy.

-Clearly identify TRL for technologies

-platforms and use these to drive

tech-sourcing decisions

Process:

-Have a process for determining

which technologies are candidates for

external sourcing

Organization:

-Update organizational relationships

and performance metrics to

Accommodate successful open

innovation

Resources:

-Manage a portfolio of

external resources

in addition to technology

platform, projects and

competences

-Open innovation as

investment.

SERVICE INNOVATION.

56.

NEW SERVICE

CONCEPT

(DIMENSION 1)

NEW CLIENT

INTERFACE

(DIMENSION 2)

NEW SERVICE

DELIVERY SYSTEM

(DIMENSION 3)

TECH-

NOLOGICAL

OPTIONS

(DIMENSION 4)

marketing & distribution

capabilities

capabilities, skills & attitude of existing

and competing service workers

ch

ara

cte

ristics o

f a

ctu

al

an

d p

ote

ntia

l clie

nts

Kn

ow

led

ge

on

th

e ch

ara

cte

ristics

of exis

ting a

nd c

om

peting s

erv

ices

(bu

sin

ess in

telli

ge

nce

)