business process simulation revisited · business process simulation: how to get it right? handbook...
TRANSCRIPT
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Business Process Simulation Revisited
prof.dr.ir. Wil van der Aalst
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state-of-art in simulation
1. Problems• Mismatched models• Overlooked artifacts• Wrong objectives• Inadequate visualization
2. Partial solution: Chunks3. Partial solution: Short-term simulation4. Conclusion
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Acknowledgements
• W.M.P. van der Aalst, J. Nakatumba, A. Rozinat and N. Russell. Business Process Simulation: How to Get it Right? Handbook of Business Process Management, 2008 (to appear, available as BPM Center Report).
• A. Rozinat, M.T. Wynn, W.M.P. van der Aalst, A.H.M. ter Hofstede, and C. Fidge. Workflow Simulation for Operational Decision Support Using Design, Historic and State Information. International Conference on Business Process Management (BPM 2008), 2008.
• A. Rozinat, R.S. Mans, M. Song, and W.M.P. van der Aalst. Discovering Simulation Models. Information Systems, 2008 (to appear, available as BETA report).
• A. Rozinat, R.S. Mans, M. Song, and W.M.P. van der Aalst. Discovering Colored Petri Nets From Event Logs. International Journal on Software Tools for Technology Transfer, 10(1):57-74, 2008.
• H.A. Reijers and W.M.P. van der Aalst. Short-Term Simulation: Bridging the Gap between Operational Control and Strategic Decision Making. Proceedings of the IASTED International Conference on Modelling and Simulation, 1999.
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Problems
a) Mismatched modelsb) Overlooked artifactsc) Wrong objectivesd) Inadequate visualization
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Some of the problems related to BPS
Mismatched models
Overlooked artifacts
Wrong objectives
Inadequate visualization
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Problem 1: Mismatched models
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Example: ASML test process
37.5% OK62.5% NOK
design reality
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Example: My first real-life simulation
• TASTE (The Advanced Studies of Transport in Europe) project (1997-2003)
• ExSpect simulation model of supply chain of DAF to Spain.
• Interesting problems such as 200.000+ different spare parts. • Taking the characteristic ones or just the fast-movers does
not work!• Consider for example truck loads, warehouse, etc.
• Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) in initial simulations dramatically different from reality.
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Example: Numerous master projects
• After measuring times and routing probabilities, a faithful simulation model is constructed.
• However, KPIs in initial simulations dramatically different from reality.• Simulated flow times of hours correspond to real-life flow
times of weeks.• Simulated utilizations of 30 percent in processes where
employees complain about workload (burnout, boreout, or simout?).
• Simulation model is "massaged" until reality and simulation match.
• Observation: processes adapt based on context (when busy; skip checks, work longer, etc.).
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How to Lie With Statistics?
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How to Lie With Simulation?
• M/M/1 queue: arrival rate λ, service rate µ, utilization ρ = λ/µ.
• Flow time = 1/(µ-λ), # in system = ρ/(1- ρ)
T1
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2
utilization
flow
tim
e
desired value
desired utilization
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Slide 11
T1 TM, 10/4/2008
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Problem 2: Overlooked artifacts
• Simulation models are typically built from scratch ignoring a wealth of information:• process models (e.g., workflow models
(event logs, information implicit or explicit)
• historic dataabout arrival rates, service rates, etc.)
• current state
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Example: How to turn a workflow model into a simulation model?
environmentarrival process
subrunsettings
probabilities for choices
priorities
service times
number of resources
Use historic data!
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Problem 3: Wrong objectives
traditional steady state analysis focusing on long-
term average behavior
classical focus of simulation (tools)
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Steady state analysis
warm-upperiod
warm-upperiod
independent runs
subruns
(re-)design-time analysis, i.e., not for operational decision making
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Transient analysis
initial state
period of interest
Steady-state may not exist and may not be relevant!
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Problem 4: Inadequate visualization
• Simulation tools show "tables" and "graphs", and, if they are advanced also "token game animations".
• Management dashboards show "tables" and "graphs", and, if they are advanced also "speedometers", etc.
• Problems:• Observing the "simulated world" and the "real world"
should be unified to allow for a better interpretation of the results.
• Management dashboards are not looking "inside the process".
• Process visualization is rather primitive and tries to show design artifacts rather than the process itself.
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Tripfacts
are releasedfor accounting
Plannedtrip
is approved
TravelExpenses
Advancepayment
Needto correctplanned
tripis transmitted
Unrequestedtrip
has takenplace
Tripfacts
and receiptshave
been released for checking
Approvedtrip
has takenplace
Tripcosts
statementis transmitted
Entryof tripfacts
Entryof a
travelrequest
Accountingdate
is reached
Paymentamount
transmittedto bank/payee
Cancellation
Tripcostsmust
be includedin cost accounting
Amountsliable
to employmenttax transmitted
to payroll
Amountsrelevant
to accountingtransmitted
to payroll accounting
Needfor trip
has arisen
Paymentsmust
be released
Tripis requested
Approvalof tripfacts
Paymentmust
be effected
Approvalof travelrequest
Tripexpenses
reimbursementis rejected
Plannedtrip
mustbe canceled
Tripadvance
is transmitted/paid
Tripexpenses
reimbursementmust
be canceled
Tripis canceled
Tripcosts
cancelationstatement
is transmitted
Plannedtrip
is rejected
Approvalof tripfacts
is transmitted
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Highlights more important paths
More significant nodes are emphasized
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More to learn from maps...
AggregationClustering of coherent, less significant structures
AbstractionRemoving isolated, less significant structures
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Fuzzy miner (Christian Güther)
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Showing reality (Christian Güther)
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Overview problems
Mismatched models
Overlooked artifacts
Wrong objectives
Inadequate visualization
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Partial solution:
Chunks
W.M.P. van der Aalst, J. Nakatumba, A. Rozinat and N. Russell. Business Process Simulation: How to Get it Right? Handbook of Business Process Management, 2008 (to
eport).appear, available as BPM Center R
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Focus
Mismatched models because of inadequate resource modeling
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Chunks?
• Remember: Simulated flow times of hours while real-life flow times are weeks!
• Hypothesis: Primary cause is inadequate resource modeling.
• People:• are working part-time, have breaks, holidays, sick
leaves, etc.• are involved in multiple processes and need to assign
priorities dynamically,• do not work at a constant speed,• etc.
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5*0.2 ≠ 1
time
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Classical simulation assumptions
• A resource is:• eager to start working,• dedicated to a single process,• works at a constant speed,• does not work in batches,• does not have coffee breaks,• etc.
• Do you know this person?• Chunks: towards a more accurate modeling
of resource availability
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Avoid modeling the world in a detailed manner
Goal: Characterize resource availability with just a few parameters
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Chunks: Basic Idea
horizon (h) horizon (h) horizon (h)
c c c c c c c c c c c
arrival of case
completion of case
resource is working
resource is available
resource:• inactive• ready• busy
irb b b b i ii ii
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Parameters
• ρ = λ/µ ≤ a, i.e., utilization is less than availability• c ≤ h, i.e., chunk size cannot be larger than the
horizon• (a*h) mod c = 0 in experiments to avoid unusable
availability
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CPN model
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Effect of availability (a)
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Effect of chunk size (c)
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Effect of horizon (h)
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Effect of utilization (ρ)
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Experiment: Note multiple resources and potential accumulation of effects
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CPN model
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Some findings
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"Chunks Conclusion"
• It is important not to assume that people are always available and eager to work when cases arrive.
• The assumptions heavily impacts flow time, e.g., the bigger the chunk size, the longer the flow times of cases.
• The "chunk model" is rather simple, however, the typical assumptions made in today's simulation tools (i.e. a = 1, c = 0, and h=inf), may result in flow times of minutes or hours while with more realistic settings for a, c, and h the flow time may go up to weeks or months and actually coincide with the actual flow times observed.
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Partial solution:
Short-Term Simulation
A. Rozinat, M.T. Wynn, W.M.P. van der Aalst, A.H.M. ter Hofstede, and C. Fidge. Workflow Simulation for Operational Decision Support Using Design, Historic and State Information. International Conference on Business Process Management (BPM 2008), 2008.
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Focus: transient analysis using design, historic, and current state information.
Overlooked artifacts
Wrong objectives
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Overview: Short-Term Simulation
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Implementation using YAWL, ProM, and CPN Tools
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ProM: Merging and converting models covering different aspects
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Example: 4 different simulation scenarios
1. An empty initial state (‘empty’)2. After loading the current state file with the 150
applications currently in the system (‘as is’)3. After loading the current state file but adding four
extra resources (‘to be A’)4. After loading the current state file and adding eight
extra resources (‘to be B’)
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Confidence intervals
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Conclusion Short-Term Simulation
• Transient analysis is essential for operational decision making!
• The initial state matters!• Artifacts (design, historic, and current state
information) from a workflow management systems like YAWL can be used!
• Interesting side effect of the YAWL, ProM, CPN Tools integration: the real and simulated process can be viewed in a unified mannerusing process mining!
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Conclusion
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Problems and some solutions ...
Mismatched models
Overlooked artifacts
Wrong objectives
Inadequate visualization
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Relevant WWW sites
• http://www.processmining.org• http:// promimport.sourceforge.net
• http://prom.sourceforge.net
• http://www.workflowpatterns.com
• http://www.workflowcourse.com
• http://www.vdaalst.com