building irish times from pet-ie · –possible to update and review all the technical, economic...

2/6/2010

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Building Irish TIMES from PET-IE

Brian P. Ó Gallachóir, Denis Lavigne, Ullash K. Rout,

Maurizio Gargiulo and Amit Kanudia

TERI - ETSAP Workshop Jan 2010, Delhi

2 of 31B. P. Ó Gallachóir , D. Lavigne, U. K. Rout, M. Gargiulo and A. Kanudia

Overview

• PET-IE -> Irish TIMES

• PET -> „Country‟ TIMES

• Ireland‟s Energy System

• Irish TIMES development

– Improving energy system characterisation

• Residential sector

• New Industry Sub-sectors

• Scenarios

– EN1 RES 2020

– EN2 Non-ETS GHG 2020

– EN3 GHG 2050

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PET-IE

• Pan European TIMES (PET) model developed

within NEEDS project www.needs-project.org/

• Energy systems of 30 countries modelled

separately.

• PET synthesized by allowing trade between

countries.

• Further developed in RES 2020 project

www.res2020.eu to analyse EU 20% RES target

• PET-IE from RES 2020 used as starting point for

Irish TIMES


PET-IE -> Irish TIMES

• Wanted to avoid „multiple‟ TIMES models for

Ireland

• New approach adopted here to ensure

– ongoing consistency between PET-IE & Irish TIMES

– as Irish TIMES improves, this feeds back to PET-IE

• Involves PET-IE „dbase‟ only extraction from

PET

• Irish TIMES is a fully working TIMES model

• Irish TIMES cannot change calibrated base year

data

http://www.needs-project.org/



http://www.res2020.eu/

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PET-IE -> Irish TIMES

• Scenario files used to amend sectoral data

• SubRES used to add new technologies,

commodoties, etc.

• Scenario files and SubRES feed back to PET

• PET recalibrated at intervals with improved

energy system characterisation.

• PET currently being recalibrated to 2005 base

year (good timing!)


PET -> „Country‟ TIMES

• “Extract” country model from PET model

– a single region is delivered (e.g. Ireland) via VEDA-FE

browse database, to country TIMES modelling team

– this includes data to simulate the Reference case trade

environment of the multi-region PET

• Feed-back from country TIMES modelling team

– periodically information about new inputs, structure

updates and assumptions

– used by the PET core team, to improve the single

country region

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• Browse database in VEDA-FE

– the simple way to understand an existing model

(structure, data by sectors/techs and assumptions)

– possible to update and review all the technical,

economic and environmental input data

– check and update energy service demand and demand

projections

– build new scenarios

– add new sectors, commodities and processes



• Browse database in VEDA-FE

– not possible to update the base year (BY) energy

balance, change the BY reference energy system or BY

energy service demand

– to update BY energy balance, RES and demand the

modellers need to send data to the PET team

• Why this approach?

1. ENSURES COHERENCE BETWEEN THE PET-EU MODEL

AND THE SINGLE COUNTRY MODELS AND

2. FACILITATES FEED BACK TO IMPROVE THE WHOLE

MODEL


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Energy Drivers 1990 - 2007

• Economic growth nearly trebled (6.5% average

annual growth)

• Population grew from 3.5 M to 4.3 M (1.3% p.a.)

• Car ownership per 1,000 adults increased from

312 to 545 (EU-15 = 592)

• No. of households increased by 43%

• Energy demand increased by 3.6% per annum

(electricity by 4.7%, gas by 6.2%)

• GHG Emissions 24% higher than 1990 (Kyoto

target 13% above 1990)


Ireland‟s Energy Flow 2008

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Ireland‟s Energy Balance 2008

• Final Demand in 2008 - 561 PJ

– Transport 42%

– Industry 19%

– Buildings 37%

– Agriculture 2%

• Primary Energy in 2008 - 685 PJ

– Oil 55%

– Gas 27%

– RES 4%


Ireland‟s Gas Supply System

Gas: 27% of primary energy

92% Imported (UK)

Network coverage limited

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Ireland‟s Electricity System

Gen Cap 7.5 GW (incl. 1.2 GW wind)

1.5% Net Imports from NI

Peak Demand 5 GW

Gross Elec Demand 30 TWh


TIMES Overview

Depicting reality inside an energy systems model

Reality Model ScopeModel

structure

Mathematical

description

P P

O P

Q P

BHKW S BHKW Coal BHKW

BHKW CO Coal BHKW

BHKW H BHKW Coal BHKW

_ _

_ _

_ _ _

2

2

Model

results

0

10

20

30

PJ

1990 2000 2010 2020

Household

Transport

Industry

Data

4a Entwicklung der Kernenergiekapazitäten (Netto-Engpassleistung am Jahresende) in Deutschland bis 2030 (Basis: 32 Zeitjahre)

Energieträger Einheit 2000 2010e 2020e 2025e 2030e

4a.1 Kernenergie MW 21273 16340 1269 0 0

4b Entwicklung der Kernenergiekapazitäten (Netto-Engpassleistung am Jahresende) in Deutschland bis 2030 (Basis: umgelegte Arbeitsmengen)


4b.1 Kernenergie MW 21273 17125 9308 0 0

5 Entwicklung der Kapazitäten und der Erzeugung aus regenerativen Energiequellen (Mindestmengen) in Deutschland bis 2030


5.1a Sonne GW 0,11 0,71 1,31 1,61 1,91

5.1b Sonne TWh p.a. 0,07 0,60 1,00 1,28 1,52

5.2a Wind GW 6,11 23,10 25,60 26,90 28,10

5.2b Wind TWh p.a. 9,50 43,54 57,96 64,02 70,08

5.3a Biomasse GW 0,59 0,80 1,00 1,10 1,20

5.3b Biomasse TWh p.a. 1,63 2,55 3,60 4,20 4,80

6 Energie- und Umweltpolitik in Deutschland bis 2030

Größe Einheit 2000 2010e 2020e 2025e 2030e

6,1CO2-Zertifikatehandel

(Strom u. Industrie)nein ja ja ja ja

6,2 CO2-Zertifikatepreis €2000/tCO2- 3,00 9,00 12,00 14,00

Model Scope

Solver (CPLEX/MINO

S/CONOPT/XP

RESS/etc.)

Cross-checking

results with reality. Feedback

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Irish TIMES (2009 - 2011)

• Provide new capacity to answer policy questions

• Focus on 2020 but extend to 2050

• Provide insights into technology options

• Build energy systems modelling capacity at UCC

• Complement existing Irish modelling research

• Contribute to the significant international TIMES

research effort through IEA ETSAP

• Disseminate the results of the project.


Irish TIMES Development

• Initial energy system update complete for

– Residential

– Electricity Generation

– Transport

– Industry

• Planned work 2010

– further detailing for industry

– Scenarios to 2020 (RES and GHG)

– Demand drivers to 2050

– Scenarios to 2050

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2000 2001 2000 2001 2000 2001 2000 2001

Space Heating 60.9 64.7 71.6 74.4 2.6 2.7 3.6 3.4

Water Heating 13.1 16.3 17.5 18.2 4.9 5.1 5.8 5.8

Cooking 16.1 16.1 3.9 4.0 4.7 4.6 2.9 2.9

Lighting, Appliances & Other 12.3 12.1 10.7 12.1 12.3 12.1 10.7 12.1

Residential 102.4 109.2 103.7 108.8 24.5 24.4 23.0 24.2

Final Energy Demands (PJ) Final Electricity Demands (PJ)

PET-IE Irish TIMES PET-IE Irish TIMES

Improved characterisation of energy end use

Residential Sector


Improved Fuel Split

Fuel Consumption for Space Heating in 2000

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Electricity Gas Biomass Coal+Peat LPG Oil

Fin

al E

ne

rgy

(PJ)

PET-IE Irish TIMES

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0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

PJ

Coal Peat Oil Natural Gas Renewables Electricity

Energy in Industry

1990 – 2007 2.7%

average p.a. growth


0

5

10

15

20

25

Non-E

nergy

Min

ing

Food, bev

erag

es a

nd tobac

co

Textil

es a

nd text

ile p

roduct

s

Wood a

nd wood p

roduct

s

Pulp

, pap

er, p

ublishin

g and p

rintin

g

Chem

ical

s & m

an-m

ade

fibre

s

Rubber

and p

last

ic p

roduct

s

Oth

er n

on-met

allic

min

eral

pro

ducts

Bas

ic m

etal

s an

d fabri

cate

d met

al p

roduct

s

Mac

hiner

y an

d equip

men

t n.e

.c.

Ele

ctrica

l and o

ptical

equip

men

t

Transp

ort e

quipm

ent m

anufa

cture

Oth

er m

anufa

cturi

ng

PJ

Energy in Industry 2005

40% of energy (75% of GVA) in „other‟

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Energy (% 2005)

13.5

0

14

0

0

0

0

0

0

1.4

0

0

6.6

7.7

5.8

11.3

39.7

Industry in PET-IE

Produced commodity

Aluminium Demand

Ammonia Demand

Cement Demand

Chlorine Demand

Copper Demand

Glass Flat Demand

Glass Hollow Demand

High Quality Paper Demand

Iron and Steel Demand

Lime Demand

Low Quality Paper Demand

Non Energy Consumption - Chemicals

Non Energy Consumption - Others

Other Non Ferrous Metals Demand

Other Non Metallic Minerals Demand

Other Chemicals Demand

Other Industries

Symbol

IAL

IAM

ICM

ICL

ICU

IGF

IGH

IPH

IIS

ILM

IPL

NEC

NEO

INF

INM

ICH

IOI


Industry in Irish TIMES

Symbol

IAL

IAM

ICM

ICL

ICU

IGF

IGH

IPH

IIS

ILM

IPL

NEC

NEO

INF

INM

ICH

IPH

IOI

ICT

IFB

Produced commodity

Aluminium Demand

Ammonia Demand

Cement Demand

Chlorine Demand

Copper Demand

Glass Flat Demand

Glass Hollow Demand

High Quality Paper Demand

Iron and Steel Demand

Lime Demand

Low Quality Paper Demand

Non Energy Consumption - Chemicals

Non Energy Consumption - Others

Other Non Ferrous Metals Demand

Other Non Metallic Minerals Demand

Other Chemicals Demand

Chemicals and Pharmaceuticals

Other Industries

ICT and Electronics sector

Food, beverages and tobacco

Energy (%, 2005)

13.5

0

14

0

0

0

0

0

0

1.4

0

0

6.6

7.7

5.8

2.3

9

9.6

7.2

22.9

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e.g. Pharmaceuticals

Reactor

Filtration,

crystallisation

, and

centrifugation

Drying Milling

Raw material API (Active

pharmaceutical

ingredient)

Mixing,

and

granula

ting

Drying

Milling

and

blending

Others

Tablet/capsule/etc.

Relevant to Ireland


Scenario I - RES Targets for 2020

• Directive 2009/28/EC mandatory targets for Ireland

– 16% RES by 2020

– also 10% RES-T

• But Ireland has national targets

– 40% RES-E by 2020 (7.9% RES) going well

– 10% RES-T by 2020 (3.3% RES) late starting

– 12% RES-H (4.2% RES) no movement

– Is this the optimal mix???

– Scenario ENI Assess mix that gives 16% RES plus 10%

RES-T and compare with national targets

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40% RES-E

1.8%2.2%

3.0%

3.9%4.5%

4.8%5.2%

5.5%5.7%

6.0%6.4%

6.8%7.3%

7.9%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Sh

are

of G

FC

Renewable Electricity

7.9%

..which takes us half-way

to 16% target


…. 10% RES-T

2.0%

2.6%

3.7%

4.9%

5.8%

6.4%7.0%

7.5%8.0%

8.5%9.1%

9.7%

10.4%

11.2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Sh

are

of G

FC

Renewable Electricity Renewable Transport

7.9%

3.3%

..bringing us to 11% RES

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and 12% RES-H

3.4%

4.1%

5.5%

7.5%

8.6%

9.5%

10.2%10.8%

11.4%

12.0%

12.8%

13.6%

14.4%

15.4%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Sh

are

of G

FC

Renewable Electricity Renewable Transport Renewable Heat

7.9%

4.2%

3.3%

..bringing us to 15.4% RES


Scenario II Non-ETS Emissions

• EU GHG Targets

• EU Mandatory Target for Ireland – Decision 406/2009/EC

– Non-ETS GHG 20% less than 2005 by 2020

GHG 20%

below 1990

by 2020

ETS GHG

21% below

2005 by 2020

Non-ETS GHG

10% below

2005 by 2020

= +

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GHG Emissions in 2007

• Total emissions: 69 Mt CO2e (~ 35% ETS)

– Agriculture: 27% (large impact)

– Energy: 65%

• Power gen + refining 22%

• Transport 21%

• Residential 10 %

• Industry and Services 12%

– Process Emissions (Industry): 5%

– Waste: 3%

65% Non-ETS


What if we meet our energy targets?

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Mt C

O2

Non-ETS Energy Related CO2 ETS Energy Related CO2

Historical Trend Projection

Emissions in 2020

13% below 2005 levels

ETS Emissions

28% below 2005

Non-ETS Emissions

1% above 2005

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Irish TIMES Next Steps

• Jan – June 2010

– Improve industry representation

– Improve residential electricity end use

– ENI 16% RES and 10% RES-T by 2020

– EM1 20% decrease in Non-ETS GHG 2020

– Service demand to 2050

• Jul – Dec 2010

– EM2 GHG 80% decrease by 2050

From PET-IE to Irish TIMES

Brian P. Ó Gallachóir, Denis Lavigne, Ullash K. Rout,

Maurizio Gargiulo and Amit Kanudia

www.ucc.ie/en/serg/energypolicy/projects/

irishtimes/

building irish times from pet-ie · –possible to update and review all the technical, economic...

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