bryan mark peru night 1
TRANSCRIPT
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15 February 2012
Recent Peruvian Glacier Changes: An update & why it matters to humans
Bryan Mark
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• Jeff McKenzie (McGill)
• Jeffrey Bury (UCSC)
• Ken Young (UT Austin)
• Mark Carey (U Oregon)
• Donald Rodbell (Union College)
• Zicheng Yu (Lehigh)
• Christopher Hopkinson (NSCC)
• Lonnie & Ellen Thompson (BPRC)
• D. Slayback, K. Yager (NASA)
• Nathan Stansell (Res Assoc)
• Sarah Fortner (Postdoc)
• Kyung In Huh (PhD)
• Scott Reinemann (PhD)
• Jeff LaFrenierre (PhD)
• Alfonso Fernandez (PhD)
• Oliver Wigmore (PhD)
• Michel Baraer (PhD)
• Adam French (PhD)
• Alex Eddy (MA)
• Nate Patrick (MS)
http://bprc.osu.edu/glacierchange
• Laura Lautz (Syracuse)
• Ryan Gordon
• Patrick Burns
• Joel Harper (MT)
• Toby Meierbachtol
• Adam Clark
• Ing. Ricardo J. Gomez
• Ing. Cesar Portocarrero
• Unidad de Glaciologia y Recursos Hidricos
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Science is relational
Alcides Ames
(1942-2007)
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http://bprc.osu.edu/glacierchange
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Outline
• Perspective on glacier recession
• Update on glacier volume loss and river flow
• Human vulnerability to glacier recession and
climate change in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru
• Water resources and coupled systems
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Glacier thinning since 1970 (m/yr)
Adapted from Dyurgerov and Meier (2005)
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Data from World Glacier Monitoring Service (http://www.globalwarmingart.com/)
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Tropical
Andean
Glaciers71% in Peru
22% in Bolivia
4% in Ecuador
3% in Colombia
~1% Venezuela
Source-J. Bury
UC-Santa Cruz
NASA Worldwind
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•0.10ûC/decade
•overall +0.68°C since 1939
•last 20 years: only 2 (1996 and
1999) below the long term
(1961-90) average
Vuille et al. 2008, Ear Sci Rev 89, 79-96.
Observed Andean temperature change
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Cordillera Blanca
Since 1970, ~25% of
glaciers have melted
~20 million people (70%
of country) depend on
glaciers
~267,000 people live in
Callejon de Huaylas
Source-J. Bury
UC-Santa Cruz
NASA Worldwind
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Most glacierized tropical range
Highly seasonal precipitation,
Rapid glacier loss & rising (competing?) water
demand
Cordillera Blanca
13.0
13.5
14.0
14.5
15.0
15.5
16.0
16.5
17.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Tem
pera
ture
(C
)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Pre
cip
itati
on
(m
m)
Huascarán
Huaraz
La Balsa
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Tropical glaciers: climate & hydrological response
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Month
Dis
charg
e (
m3/s
)
La Balsa 1954-2008 daily discharge
Dry seasonWet season
Credit: M. Baraer
annual discharge, dry season discharge & flow variability
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Methods: “high” and “low” tech observations
1. How much ice loss?
2. What impact to local
hydrology?
3. What social perception,
vulnerability, adaptation?
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Time for SpaceVulnerability Case-Studies
• Llanganuco-25% glacier area (est 2010)
– Sample-52 households
• 2.3% of population
• Quilcayhuanca-17% glacier area
– Sample-32 households
• 10.3% of population
• Querococha-2% glacier area (est 2010)
– Sample-40 households
• 5.5% of population
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Surface area & volume
changes from multi-
sensors (1962-2008)
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Surface area change
Data Source Year Area(km2)
Aerial photo 1962 1.155
ASTER 2001 0.671
ASTER 2002 0.547
ASTER 2004 0.474
ASTER 2005 0.347
ASTER 2007 0.259
ASTER 2008 0.165
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
Year
Are
a m
2 x
10
6
85.7% Surface Area Loss (1962-2008)
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Volume change
• Mean surface
lowering : 54m
• Maximum
lowering :
128m
Data Source Year diff dV (km3)
Aerial photo-
LiDAR1962-2008L 0.233
Photo DEM :
Ave. 12.67m (±22) lower than
LiDAR DEM
Hypsometry
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Volume vs. Surface area
Volume (V) of
valley glaciers is
proportion to the
surface area (S)
Empirical function
relating changes in
V to S (Chen and
Ohmura, 1990)
UNDERESTIMATE
measurements
V=38.716S0.357
S
#1
#2
#3
#4
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3. Tributaries of Rio Santa
2. Downstream confluence
1. Glacier watersheds
What is the glacier meltwater
impact downstream?A question of scale
Callejon de Huaylas: populated Rio Santa watershed
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Rio Santa at hydro power plant:
• Significant decreasing trend
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Key concerns
• What stream flow trends can be discerned in the
wake of sustained glacier retreat (fraction of ice
cover loss)?
– Peak water
• What is the actual status of regional water
availability?
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Month
Dis
charg
e (
m3/s
)
La Balsa 1954-2008 daily discharge
Moore et al., 2009
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Glacier coverage by tributary watershed
annual fraction of ice loss,
The La Balsa watershed,
has an average of 0.61 %
area loss per year.
The average values for
the period of 1990-2009
was double that for the
period of 1930-2009