The State of the Parties Media Briefing

Wednesday 11th September

The State of the Electoral Battle

John Curtice

Strathclyde University

Party Fortunes in This Parliament

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Jun

-10

Au

g-1

0

Oct

-10

Dec

-10

Feb

-11

Ap

r-1

1

Jun

-11

Au

g-1

1

Oct

-11

Dec

-11

Feb

-12

Ap

r-1

2

Jun

-12

Au

g-1

2

Oct

-12

Dec

-12

Feb

-13

Ap

r-1

3

Jun

-13

Au

g-1

3

Con Lab Lib Dem

The UKIP Intervention

39 37 36

33 34 33 33 33 32 33 33 32 32 30 29

31 30 31 33 32

38 39 40 40

42 41 42 41 41 43 43

41 41 43

40 39 35

37 38 37

13 12 11 11 10 12 11 12 13

11 11 11 11 10 12

11 11 11 11 11

3 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 9 12 12

15 13 11 11

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Jan

-12

Feb

-12

Mar

-12

Ap

r-1

2

May

-12

Jun

-12

Jul-

12

Au

g-1

2

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

No

v-1

2

Dec

-12

Jan

-13

Feb

-13

Mar

-13

Ap

r-1

3

May

-13

Jun

-13

Jul-

13

Au

g-1

3

Con Lab Lib Dem UKIP

Opposition Precedents

2 1

6 9

15

6

16

11 7

15

26

-20

1

17

5

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Apr.48

Aug.53

Dec.57

Dec.62

Aug.68

May.72

Jul.77

Aug.81

Aug.85

Jun.90

Jun.95

Jul.99

Jul.03

Jul.08

Jul.13

% poll lead

Miliband’s Rating

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Oct

-10

Dec

-10

Feb

-11

Ap

r-1

1

Jun

-11

Au

g-1

1

Oct

-11

Dec

-11

Feb

-12

Ap

r-1

2

Jun

-12

Au

g-1

2

Oct

-12

Dec

-12

Feb

-13

Ap

r-1

3

Jun

-13

Au

g-1

3

Satisfied Dissatisfied

Source: Ipsos-MORI

Labour’s Vital Crutch?

12

33

44

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Con Lab Lib Dem

% 2010 LD voters now supporting

Coalition Regaining Reputation for Economic Competence?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jun

-10

Au

g-1

0

Oct

-10

Dec

-10

Feb

-11

Ap

r-1

1

Jun

-11

Au

g-1

1

Oct

-11

Dec

-11

Feb

-12

Ap

r-1

2

Jun

-12

Au

g-1

2

Oct

-12

Dec

-12

Feb

-13

Ap

r-1

3

Jun

-13

Au

g-1

3

% managing economy well

Source: YouGov

Tories Still Losing to UKIP

14

4

8

14

3

5

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Con Lab LD

% 2

01

0 v

ote

no

w s

up

po

rtin

g U

KIP

April

August

State of the Parties

• Con – Economic confidence is recovering, but will this be enough to pull voters back from UKIP?

• Lab – On past precedent, too narrow a mid-term lead to be confident of victory.

• Lib Dems – still stuck in the same post tuition fee rut.

• UKIP – balloon has deflated a little, but is as yet far from burst.

From British Euroscepticism to

Euroscepticism in Britain

Richard Wyn Jones

Prifysgol Caerdydd/Cardiff University

EU referendum vote by Moreno NatID (2012)

Which level of government HAS most influence over how England is run? (2012, %)

Local Councils 3

UK Government 55

European Union 31

Other/DK 10

• 2009 CANS survey in 14 European regions: in no region did EU score higher than 9% on ‘most influence’ question

• Perceptions of EU influence strongly correlated with hostility to EU: people think EU is important and don’t like it!

NatID by Party Support (2012, %)