brac economic outlook 2015
DESCRIPTION
The Baton Rouge Area Chamber gave the results of its annual economic outlook on Tuesday Nov. 18, 2014 at the City Club of Baton Rouge.TRANSCRIPT
-7.3
5.0 5.7 4.8 6.2 7.0
6.3 2.2
*Not Seasonally Adjusted; **January through August average Source: BLS; Loren Scott’s Louisiana Economic Outlook; Louisiana Workforce Commission; Moody’s Analytics; Economic Modeling Systems Incorporated; BRAC analysis
Last year, BRAC forecasted job growth at 2.3% in 2014 Nonfarm new net jobs and employment* (thousands of people)
Forecasted Job Growth
Historical
Low Forecast
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 364.2 369.3 375.0 379.8** 386.0-392.3 393.0-401.5
-2.0% 1.4% 1.6% 1.3%
Total Employment
Growth Rate
High Forecast
1.6-3.3% 1.8-2.3%
Moody’s 1.6% 1.8%
EMSI 2.0% 1.8%
Dr. Scott 3.3% 2.3%
Forecasts
Most conservative
Least conservative
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; BRAC analysis
Regional employment growth continues, meeting forecast expectations Nonfarm employment, not seasonally adjusted
Continued Job Growth
330,000
340,000
350,000
360,000
370,000
380,000
390,000
400,000
410,000
Feb-
10
Apr
-10
Jun-
10
Aug
-10
Oct
-10
Dec
-10
Feb-
11
Apr
-11
Jun-
11
Aug
-11
Oct
-11
Dec
-11
Feb-
12
Apr
-12
Jun-
12
Aug
-12
Oct
-12
Dec
-12
Feb-
13
Apr
-13
Jun-
13
Aug
-13
Oct
-13
Dec
-13
Feb-
14
Apr
-14
Jun-
14
Aug
-14
Oct
-14
Dec
-14
364.2 369.3 384.9 Total
annual
The regional economy is achieving its forecast expectation for 2014, trending at 2.7% employment growth YOY
375.0 393.1
September 2014 employment of 398.8k was the highest ever in the region
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; BRAC analysis
Regional employment growth has outperformed Louisiana and the nation Nonfarm employment, not seasonally adjusted (percent change)
Job Growth Performance
-5.00%
-4.00%
-3.00%
-2.00%
-1.00%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Baton Rouge Area LA US U.S.
*Peer cities include: Austin, Birmingham, Jackson, Little Rock, Memphis, Mobile, Nashville, and Raleigh Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; BRAC analysis
The Capital Region unemployment remains lower than the state and peer metro average, but has been trending upwards in recent months
Unemployment rate (percent)
Regional Unemployment
2013 2012
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Baton Rouge Area Peer cities* U.S.
6.3%
6.1%
6.2%
Aug
.
Aug
.
Oct
.
Dec
.
Feb.
Apr
.
Jun.
Aug
.
Oct
.
Dec
.
Feb.
Apr
.
Jun.
2014
Source: Louisiana Workforce Commission
Unemployment claims are down 7% compared to 2013, continuing a downward trend since 2010
Average unemployment insurance initial claims and weeks claimed 2010-2014
Unemployment Claims
250
350
450
550
650
750
850
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Average Initial Claims 2010-2014
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2500
4500
6500
8500
10500
12500
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Average Weeks Claimed 2010-2014
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; BRAC analysis; *Data September 2013 to September 2014
82% of the local economy experienced growth in 2014, led by the construction and business services sectors
Percent of total 2014* job distribution and growth
Local Economy
68%
12%
8% 7%
Job Growth
13%
13%
12% 9%
18%
5%
19% 7% 7%
Manufacturing
Construction
Government
Professional & Business Services
Education & Health Services
Professional & Business Services
Government Education & Health Services
Construction
Job Distribution Percent
Leisure & Hospitality
1% - Financial Activities 2% - Other Services
Financial Activities
Other Services
3% - Leisure & Hospitality 3% - Manufacturing
“8% = Trade, Transportation, Utilities, and Information – sectors that experienced no growth (18% of economy)
Source: E MSI, BRAC analysis
Over the last five years, there has been significant growth from education and health services, leisure and hospitality, and manufacturing
Bubble diameter is proportional to number of employees in 2013
Employment Growth Sectors: • Education & Health Services • Leisure & Hospitality • Manufacturing
Financial'Ac)vi)es'
Manufacturing'
Local'Gov’t'&'Public'Ed'
Leisure'&'Hospitality'
Construc)on'
Retail'
State'Gov’t'&'Higher'Ed'
Prof.'&'Bus.'Services'
Educa)on'&'Health'Services'
Growth Sectors B
aton
Rou
ge M
SA E
mpl
oym
ent G
row
th 2
009-
2013
CA
GR
(%)
2013 Baton Rouge MSA Location Quotient -3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0
Source: E MSI, BRAC analysis
Health care contributed significantly to growth, with industrial-related sectors also growing at high rates
Bubble diameter is proportional to number of employees in 2013
Growth Sectors B
aton
Rou
ge M
SA E
mpl
oym
ent G
row
th 2
009-
2013
CA
GR
(%)
2013 Baton Rouge MSA Location Quotient
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0
Construc)on'of'Buildings'
Finance and Insurance
Management'of'Companies'
Employment Growth Sectors: • Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation • Fabricated Metal Product
Manufacturing • Specialty Trade Contractors • Construction of Buildings
Accom. & Food Services
Arts, Ent., & Rec.
Specialty Trade Contractors
Heavy & Civil Engin. Construction
Fabricated Metal Product Manu.
Chemical Manu.
Petroleum & Coal Products Manu.
Health Care & Social Assistance
Ed. Services
Admin., Support, Waste Mgmt & Remediation Services
Prof., Sci. & Tech. Services
*Baton Rouge area includes Ascension, East Baton Rouge, and Livingston Parishes Source: MLS; GBRAR; Brookings Institution
The Baton Rouge Area’s real estate market showed growth in sales and home prices over the past year
Baton Rouge Area* home sales (units sold)
Real Estate Market
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2013 2014
• Home sales are up roughly 1.9% for 2014 compared to 2013
• 2014 average home sales prices in the Baton Rouge Area increased 3.7% from the 2013 average
Source: City of Baton Rouge and Parish of East Baton Rouge Inspection Division
Residential and commercial permitting are both up since 2013 New East Baton Rouge residential and commerical units permitted
Permitting
0'
100'
200'
300'
400'
500'
600'
700'
Q1' Q2' Q3' Q4'
Commercial'2013' Commercial'2014'
Residen)al'2013' Residen)al'2014' • Residential permitting was up 11% in 2014 (Q3) compared to 2013 (Q3)
• Commercial permitting is down 14% in 2014 (Q3) compared to 2013 (Q3)
Current Office Marketing
Total Square
Feet
• Total Office Space Square Feet (Class A & Class B) = 6,225,466 • Total Available Office Space Square Feet = 729,067 • Total Amount of Available Office Space (5,000 Square Feet of Contiguous Space or
less) = 330,000 • Actual Amount of Functional Contiguous Square Feet Available = 450,000 -550,000 • Total “Theoretical” Vacancy Rate: ~12%
Functional Square Feet
• 36 Buildings with 10,000 Sq. Ft. or More of Vacant Contiguous Space (5 Class A, 12 Class B, 19 Class C) 7 Buildings with 40,000 Vacant Contiguous Space (1 Class A, 3 Class B, 3 Class C)
• Functional Space versus Vacant Space • Obsolete and/or Inadequate “Class B/C” skews Vacancy Rate • Actual Vacancy Rate for Functional Class A and Class B Space: ~7%
Office Market
Projection
• Velocity of national deals indicates few will wait for BTS options • Limited availability of large blocks of space contnue will deter new tenants • Total Vacancy Rate projected to decrease to ~7% in 2015 (~430,000 SF) • Functional Vacancy Rate projected to decrease to ~3% in 2015 (~200,000 SF)
Region includes Ascension, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Iberville, Livingston, Pointe Coupee, St. Helena, West Baton Rouge and West Feliciana parishes *Sales were estimated from sales and use tax collections and rates of each taxing jurisdiction within each parish Source: Local tax offices; BRAC analysis
Regional spending has been slowly but steadily increasing since 2011 Regional spending January 2011 to September 2014 (millions)
Regional Spending
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800 2014 sales tax collections are 7.2% higher than 2013
Source: youreconomy.org
Baton Rouge Area’s business growth rate ranks 26th in the U.S. for the past five years, with small business growth being the driver
The total number of business establishments has increased by 6,226, or an average annual rate of 2.5%, from 2009-2013.
Business Growth Rate
Establishments 2009 2013 Change
Total 62,492 68,718 6,226
Self Employed 21,704 14,309 -7,395
Stage 1 (2-9) 33,700 46,112 12,412
Stage 2 (10-99) 6,411 7,526 1,115
Stage 3 (100-499) 587 674 87
Stage 4 (500+) 90 97 7
O8.5%'
9.2%'
4.3%'3.7%'
1.9%'
SELF' STAGE'1' STAGE'2' STAGE'3' STAGE'4'
27.4%'
60.8%'
10.6%'
1.0%' 0.1%'
SELF' STAGE'1' STAGE'2' STAGE'3' STAGE'4'
Growth Within Stages
Composition by Stages
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Total Establishments
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000 New'Startups'
Source: youreconomy.org
The Baton Rouge Area has experienced considerable business growth since the mid 1990s, but business creation has been stagnant in the last three years
Total establishments and new startup creation by year
Business Creation
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), EMSI
The Baton Rouge Area has experienced extremely strong gross regional product (GRP) growth since 2009, driven by a flood of investment into the region
Baton Rouge Area and national GRP/GDP per capita
Gross Regional Product
$30,000.00
$35,000.00
$40,000.00
$45,000.00
$50,000.00
$55,000.00
$60,000.00
$65,000.00
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Baton Rouge Area National Average
• Baton Rouge Area GRP has increased by 24% since 2009
• This increase amounts to just over $11.9 billion
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Baton Rouge Area National Average Source: Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration; EMSI
Baton Rouge Area exports per capita have increased 81% since 2009, compared to a national average of 45%
Exports per capita
Exports
• Baton Rouge Area exports have increased by 81% since 2009
• This increase amounts to nearly $3 billion
Economy Outlook Business owners are growing more optimistic about the regional economy
Adjectives assessing the overall condition of the Capital Region economy Size of the word is proportional to frequency of response in a survey of business leaders
*Percentages may not sum to 100 due to rounding
Percentage of respondents in a survey of regional business leaders*
2015 Forecasts
1% 0% 3% 5%
30% 27% 20%
11% 2%
2015 ECONOMIC GROWTH FORECAST
No Change
Moderate Decline
Rapid Decline
Moderate Growth
Rapid Growth
83%
88%
The outlook for growth is 3 percentage points lower versus 86% growth outlook in 2014
Don’t Know
4% 0% 3% 5%
74%
9%
Up 25%+
Down 5-10%
Down <5%
Same Up <5%
Up 5-10%
Up 10-25%
Down 10-25%
Down 25%+
90%
60% The outlook for growth is 6 percentage point higher versus 54% growth outlook in 2014
EMPLOYMENT GROWTH FORECAST
*Percentages may not sum to 100 due to rounding
Percentage of respondents in a survey of regional business leaders*
2015 Forecasts
0% 5% 6% 3% 10%
23% 28% 17%
8%
Up 25%+
Down 5-10%
Down <5%
Same Up <5%
Up 5-10%
Up 10-25%
Down 10-25%
Down 25%+
86%
76% The outlook for growth is 1 percentage points lower versus 77% growth outlook in 2013
BUSINESS REVENUE FORECAST
Up 25%+
Down 5-10%
Down <5%
Same Up <5%
Up 5-10%
Up 10-25%
Down 10-25%
Down 25%+
88%
53% The outlook for growth is 4 percentage points higher versus 49% growth outlook in 2013
CAPITAL EXPENDITURE FORECAST
2% 2% 5% 3%
36% 23%
15% 11% 4%
*Respondents were not allowed to choose multiple answers
Workforce, transportation/traffic, and education remain as the top obstacles for businesses in the Capital Region
Percentage of respondents in a survey of regional business leaders*
Survey Responses
19%
13%
8%
7%
6%
6%
5%
3%
2%
Zoning
Regulatory restrictions
Crime rate
Material costs
Access to capital
Tax rates
Infrastructure development delays
Lack of good public school options/cost of private school tuition
Transportation/traffic issues
Workforce issues
Top obstacles 2015 response
28%
*Respondents were allowed to choose multiple answers
Top concerns of area business leaders on availability of qualified workforce
Percentage of respondents in a survey of regional business leaders*
Survey Responses
Candidates lacking “soft skills”
Candidates with unrealistic salary expectations
Finding experienced managers in field
Challenges with recruiting out of state talent to the region
Finding candidates who can pass drug tests or stay drug free
Available workforce obstacles
Finding engineers in your field
High turnover
Finding skilled crafts labor (e.g. welders, pipefitters)
Candidates lacking requisite education or experience
2015 response
23%
19%
11%
11%
5%
6%
6%
3%
2%
27%
37%
28%
13%
15%
7%
7%
13%
6%
2014 response
*Respondents were allowed to choose multiple answers
Transportation infrastructure is the top statewide trend of concern Percentage of respondents in a survey of regional business leaders*
Survey Responses
35%
18%
18%
17%
17%
14%
13%
10%
9%
Transportation infrastructure
State legal climate and tort reform
Insurance
State economic development
K-12 education reform and performance
Tax incentives
Changes to state tax structure/code
State regulatory environment
Statewide trends 2015 response
37%
12%
20%
16%
19%
15%
16%
14%
19%
2014 response
Declining state government budget
*Respondents were allowed to choose multiple answers
For the third consecutive year health care reform/regulations is the top national and international concern
Percentage of respondents in a survey of regional business leaders*
Survey Responses
32%
25%
16%
15%
13%
13%
9%
8%
8%
Health care reform/regulations
Slow pace of recovery from economic recession
A politically divided federal government
Price of energy, including gas and oil
The federal budget deficit
Euro debt crisis
The availability of credit
Federal tax code
Interest rates
2015 response Top national and international trends
38%
34%
N/A
22%
21%
18%
16%
12%
10%
10%
2014 response
Source: Selected national and international economic analyses; Louisiana Economic Outlook, Kiplinger Report ; BRAC analysis
Impact of global and national economic trends in the Baton Rouge Area
Economic Trends 2014-2015 trends Impact Comment
Continued strength in value of the dollar
Growing consensus that the Fed may hike interest rates in 2015 after ending the asset purchase program
Continued sign of strong economy. May earn more on exports. Foreign goods become cheaper so we may see cheaper inputs for business production.
Loren Scott projects 19,600 new jobs in region through 2016 (2.4%+). LA to surpass 2M jobs in 2016. $24B in new projects, $100B across LA.
Business confidence in U.S. will support growth. European economy slowing could impact U.S. exports. China could impact world economy. U.S. Treasury rate projected to remain stable at 2.5%+/- & inflation remain at 2% +/-
WTI crude currently at $75/barrel. If oil is below ratio of 7:1 with gas, gas-based manufacturing less cost competitive, refined oil revenue lower
BR area currently meets EPA standards of 75ppb, EPA may lower eight-hr ozone standards to 60’s (return to non-attainment standard).
Lower natural gas prices are driving growth in manufacturing of petrochem feedstock products
Low natural gas prices ($3.86mmbtu currently) supports continued petrochem manufacturing, spurs further industrial construction.
Potential national EPA regulatory changes, lowering air quality standards for ozone, issues with ERC availability
Falling oil prices (from $100 in 2011 to mid $70’s today)
Foreign direct investment trends for the U.S. will continue
In 2013 U.S. received $258B in total FDI, compared to number two China at $220B
Projected U.S. GDP growth in 2015 at 3.0%+/- but uncertainty in Europe and Asia could impact world economy
-7.3
5.0 5.7 9.9 8.2 6.0 6.5
5.0 3.2
*Not seasonally adjusted; **January through September average Source: BLS; Loren Scott’s Louisiana Economic Outlook; Louisiana Workforce Commission; Economic Modeling Systems Incorporated; BRAC analysis
The Capital Region is projected to continue strong job growth through 2016 Nonfarm new net jobs and employment* (thousands of people)
Projected Growth
Historical
Low Forecast
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 364.2 369.3 375.0 384.9 393.1** 405.6-413.8
-2.0% 1.4% 1.9% 2.6%
Total Employment Growth Rate
High Forecast
2.1% 1.6-2.4%
EMSI 1.5% 1.6%
Dr. Scott 2.5% 2.4%
Moody’s 2.8% 2.3%
2015 399.1-404.1
1.5-2.8%
Forecasts
Most conservative
Least conservative
*Other includes mining & logging, federal government, wholesale trade, transportation, warehousing & utilities, information, and other services Source: Economic Modeling Systems Incorporated; Moody’s Economy; Louisiana Economic Outlook; BRAC analysis
2015 job growth forecasts by industry sector
Projected Growth
Baton Rouge Area
Construction 1,340 910
Manufacturing 555 366
Leisure & Hospitality 833 152
Other* 961 382
Retail Trade 605 238
Education & Health Services 1,729 1,149
Professional & Business Services 1,784 627
State Government & Higher Education
253 227
Financial Activities 730 164
Net New Jobs Job
Growth %
High Low
$8+ billion in industrial/commercial expansion in two years; more jobs than workers
A booming chemical and refining sector driven by low natural gas prices
Restaurant/hotel expansion follows economic expansion; Bayou Country Superfest success
Potential of Tuscaloosa Marine Shale and increased logging activities
Retail following overall economic growth
Area hospitals continue expansions; outsourcing of government to private
Engineering sector growth; particularly in services and government contracting
State employment losses expected to level out
Local Government 793 161 Slight increases predicted for local government
2.2 – 4.0
0.5 – 2.7
1.5 – 2.8
1.6 – 1.9
0.9 – 2.5
1.4 – 2.2
1.6 - 3.1
0.5 - 0.6
0.8 – 1.3
3.0 – 3.6
4,376 9,583 1.4 – 2.5
Banking and insurance seeing expansion with regional growth
Comment
Source: Economic Modeling Systems Incorporated; BRAC analysis
Job growth is expected to continue in all parishes, led by West Baton Rouge, Livingston, and Ascension
Projected Growth
Livingston 927
West Baton Rouge 513
Pointe Coupee 142
Iberville 149
Ascension 1,436
East Baton Rouge 3,685
East Feliciana 109
West Feliciana 101
Net New Jobs Job Growth %
Juban Crossing, OLOL facility open; suburban growth continues, mnfg companies interested
Louis Dreyfus major new facility, Genesis Energy exp., rail infrastructure improvements
Multiple certified sites on river (shallow draft), additional retail developments. Livonia rail yard
Heavy industrial expansions: Dow, Shintech, SE Tylose, Axial, UPRR track improvements ($500M)
Significant industrial activity expected to continue; housing, suburban, and retail growth
IT growth (IBM, Stixis, Edgear), construction firms continue growth; fabricated materials sector
New short line rail, first certified site (light industrial), Tuscaloosa Marine Shale potential
St. Helena 40 Southland Steel growth; mid-sized industrial company interest, focus on preparedness
3.4
2.5
2.6
3.9
1.8
1.3
2.2
1.0
3.6
BR Armature exp., KPAQ exp. New parish president focused on economic development
Comment
Source: Census Bureau; Moody’s; EMSI; ESRI
Local population growth is projected to continue, with the Baton Rouge Area gaining between 15,000 and 35,000 new residents by 2016
Projected Growth
825 830
835
802 808
815 820
828 835
842 835
845
855
800
810
820
830
840
850
860
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Historical*
Historical
Low Forecast
Med. Forecast
High Forecast
Population projection for the Baton Rouge Area (thousands of people)
Performance Rankings Business Facilities’ Metro Area Economic Grow Potential, 2013 #1 Southern Business & Development’s Major Market, 2012 and 2013 #1 Southern Business & Development’s Mid-markets of the Decade #2 Coldwell Banker Real Estate’s Top Booming Suburbs in America, 2013 #2 Business Facilities’ Metro Area Economic Grow Potential, 2014 #2 Milken Institute’s Best Performing Cities for Wage and Salary Growth #3 Business Journal’s Healthiest Small Business Climate in the South, 2012 #8 Forbes America's Engineering Hubs: The Cities With The Greatest Capacity For Innovation #14 Forbes Best States for Business, 2014 #29 Entrepreneur’s Emerging Entrepreneurial Hubs, 2013 Top 5 Site Selection magazine named Capital Region as one of the top ten metro areas (population between 200,000 and 1 million) for new and expanded corporate facilities, 2010-2013 Top 10 Site Selection magazine named BRAC a top ten economic development groups for 2010-2013 Top 10
Thank You Presented by Adam Knapp
President and CEO November 18, 2014