bonner county: portrait of a resilient place headwaters economics is an independent, nonprofit...
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Bonner County: Portrait of a Resilient Place
Headwaters Economics is an independent, nonprofit research group. Our mission is to improve community development and land management decisions in
the West.http://www.headwaterseconomics.org
Megan Lawson, PhD8th Annual Idaho Planning Conference
Sandpoint, IdahoOctober 8, 2015
Stay! Even if you’re not from Bonner
• Understanding economic development potential• Larger economic forces affecting rural America• Access to data sources and tools to understand your local trends
Bonner County, rural ID microcosm
• Lots of public lands
• Lots of natural resources and amenities
• Far from population centers
Three Wests
Three Wests: Economics
Three Wests: Demographics
Bonner County is isolated, but prospering
Elements of rural economic development
What we look for:
1. A diversified economy
2.
3.
4.
Elements of rural economic development
What we look for:
1. A diversified economy
2. Access to larger markets
3.
4.
Elements of rural economic development
What we look for:
1. A diversified economy
2. Access to larger markets
3. Residents committed to the community and the area’s quality of life
4.
Elements of rural economic development
What we look for:
1. A diversified economy
2. Access to larger markets
3. Residents committed to the community and the area’s quality of life
4. A well-educated workforce, suited to current and future employer needs
Elements of rural economic development
What we look for:
1. A diversified economy
2. Access to larger markets
3. Residents committed to the community and the area’s quality of life
4. A well-educated workforce, suited to current and future employer needs
What is behind this diverse economy?
Spoiler alert: it’s not (only) tourism
Change in compensation, 2001-2013
Focus on ManufacturingFruit and vegetable preserving and specialty Cement and concrete product mfg. Motor vehicle parts mfg.
Animal slaughtering and processing Cutlery and hand tool mfg. Aerospace product and parts mfg.
Bakeries and tortilla mfg. Architectural and structural metals mfg. Ship and boat building
Other food mfg. Machine shops and threaded product mfg. Other transportation equipment mfg.
Beverage mfg. Coating, engraving, and heat treating metals Household and institutional furniture mfg.
Textile furnishings mills Industrial machinery mfg. Office furniture and fixtures mfg.
Other textile product mills Commercial and service industry machinery Medical equipment and supplies mfg.
Cut and sew apparel mfg. HVAC and commercial refrigeration equipment Other miscellaneous mfg.
Sawmills and wood preservation Other general purpose machinery mfg. Pharmaceutical and medicine mfg.
Plywood and engineered wood product mfg. Computer and peripheral equipment mfg. Plastics product mfg.
Other wood product mfg. Electronic instrument mfg.
Printing and related support activities Electric lighting equipment mfg.
Advanced IndustriesBrookings Institution, 2015:• Sectors that invest heavily in R&D• Rely in large part on workers with skills in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math• In the US, they represent 5% of the workforce but produce 17% of GDP• For every advanced industry job, another 2.2 jobs are created• Since 1980, advanced industry jobs have grown 30% faster than the US economy as a
whole.
Advanced Industries in Bonner County
In 2012, 7% of all establishments in the county were Advanced Industries, which would rank Bonner County 66th in the top 100 metropolitan counties in the US
Sectors with the most establishments:• Power generation• Industrial machinery manufacturing• Electronic instrument manufacturing• Motor vehicle parts manufacturing• Aerospace product and parts
manufacturing• Medical equipment and supplies
manufacturing• Information services• Architectural and engineering
services• Computer systems design services• Management and technical
consulting services• Scientific research and development
services
What role does tourism play?1
99
8
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2,187
8,785
Travel & Tourism Non-Travel & Tourism
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce. 2013. Census Bureau, County Business Patterns, Washington, D.C.
• Consistent economic engine (relative)
• Marketing the community to business owners, retirees, entrepreneurs
Elements of rural economic development
What we look for:
1. A diversified economy
2. Access to larger markets
3. Residents committed to the community and the area’s quality of life
4. A well-educated workforce, suited to current and future employer needs
How to overcome distance?
Broadband can shorten distance
Broadband is a potential solution, but availability, affordability, and reliability lag in Bonner County, and many rural places.
Limits the types of businesses, footloose entrepreneurs that can thrive
Elements of rural economic development
What we look for:
1. A diversified economy
2. Access to larger markets
3. Residents committed to the community and the area’s quality of life
4. A well-educated workforce, suited to current and future employer needs
Some jobs lost, but most people stayed
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
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1980
1981
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1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
22,425
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
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1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000 40,699
Population
Jobs
How to measure quality of life?
• Mountains, lakes, and rivers
• Entrepreneurship, but that’s tricky
• Trails• Miles• Public investment• Private investment
Housing Affordability
Average monthly cost Housing Costs as a Percent of Household Income
Owner Renter Owner Renter
Bonner $1,334 $716 49.9% 45.7%
Ponderay $835 $677 50.0% 51.1%
Sandpoint $1,256 $704 49.1% 51.4%
Idaho $1,231 $728 34.4% 45.0%
Housing affordability is critical to maintaining community and quality of life
Bonner County is affordable relative to Idaho, but increasingly unaffordable on local wages
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce. 2013. Census Bureau, American Community Survey Office, Washington, D.C.
Elements of rural economic development
What we look for:
1. A diversified economy
2. Access to larger markets
3. Residents committed to the community and the area’s quality of life
4. A well-educated workforce, suited to current and future employer needs
Education is lagging, but improving
• Primary and secondary education help predict the future• Adult educational attainment help describe the current workforce capacity• Despite the relatively low funding per student, the district’s schools have high
scores in statewide standardized tests, ranking 19th out of 92 districts in the state
• Residents of the Lake Pend Oreille School District passed a levy in early 2015 to supplement state and federal funding, providing $7.9 million per year for two years, or 30 percent of the total school district’s budget.
• Passed by 70%• P-TECH: connecting high school students to local employers
% of population with no high
school degree
% of population with Bachelor’s
degree and higher
% of population
with Bachelor’s
degree
% of population with Graduate or
professional degree
Bonner County 9.3 21.1 14.7 6.4
Ponderay 7.9 21.5 20.2 1.3
Sandpoint 9.3 20.7 13.3 7.4
Idaho 11.2 25.1 17.2 7.8
SummaryStrengths
• Manufacturing size and breadth• Growing advanced industries• Consistent tourism draw• Residents’ commitment to the
community• High quality of life• High quality primary and secondary
education• Commercial and residential real estate
affordable, relative to the regionWeaknesses
• Distance to markets• Low download and upload speeds• Low educational attainment of current
workforce• Commercial and residential real estate
unaffordable and rising relative to local wages
What’s Happening Up Northwww.whatshappeningupnorth.com
November 5, 2015
The goal of this meeting is to share ideas about business prosperity, economic development, and quality of life, to improve the opportunities in Northern Idaho.
This event is free and open to business owners, community leaders, residents, and anyone else interested in economic opportunity in the area.
Please join the conversation!
Tools to understand your community
Megan Lawson406-570-7475
www.headwaterseconomics.org
Economic Profile System: http://headwaterseconomics.org/tools/economic-profile-system
Three Wests: http://headwaterseconomics.org/dataviz/three-wests
West Wide Atlas: http://headwaterseconomics.org/dataviz/west-wide-atlas