bold ideas - perpetual energy inc · future development capital •h1 2017 - monobore design proved...
TRANSCRIPT
C O R P O R AT E P R E S E N TAT I O N
S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 7
BOLD IDEAS
FOR ENERGY
1
This presentation contains forward-looking statements relating to Perpetual's business and operations that are based on management's current expectations, estimates and projections about its business and operations. Words and phrases such as "anticipates," "expects," "believes," "estimates," "projected," "future," "goals," "forecast," "plan," "opportunities," "upside," "will," "impact," "target," and similar expressions are intended to identify such forward-looking statements. Such statements include, but are not limited to, statements pertaining to: Perpetual's spectrum of opportunities that can be optimized through variable commodity cycles and anticipated value creation arising from such opportunities; Perpetual's top strategic priorities including reducing debt and restoring cash flow, growing value and scope of greater Edson liquids-rich gas, maximizing value of Eastern Alberta assets and advancing high impact opportunities; targeting additional asset sales for further balance sheet improvement; anticipated benefits of waterflood projects; reserve and resource estimates; projected economics for various projects and expenditures; and future capital expenditure levels. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and other factors, some of which are beyond our control and are difficult to predict. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or forecasted in such forward-looking statements. You should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this presentation. Unless legally required, Perpetual undertakes no obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
Among the important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are: inaccuracies in the estimated timing and amount of future production of natural gas and oil due to numerous factors including permit delays or restrictions, weather, equipment failures, delays or lack of availability, unexpected subsurface or geologic conditions, lack of equity or debt capital, increases in the costs of rented or contracted equipment, increases in labor costs, volumes of oil or gas greater or lesser than anticipated, and changes in applicable regulations and laws; unexpected problems with wells or other equipment, unexpected changes in operating costs and other expenses, including utilities, labor, transportation, well and oil field services, taxes, permit fees, regulatory compliance and other costs of operation; decreases in natural gas and oil prices, including price discounts and basis differentials; difficulties in accurately estimating the discovery, volumes, development potential and replacement of natural gas and oil reserves; the impact of economic conditions on our business operations, financial condition and ability to raise equity or debt capital; variances in cash flow, liquidity and financial position; a significant reduction in our bank credit facility's borrowing base; availability of funds from the capital markets and under our bank credit facility; our level of indebtedness; the ability of financial counterparties to perform or fulfill their obligations under existing agreements; write downs of our asset carrying values and oil and gas property impairment; the discovery of previously unknown environmental issues; changes in our business and financial strategy; inaccuracies in estimating the amount, nature and timing of capital expenditures, including future finding and development costs; the inability to predict the availability and terms of capital; issues with marketing of natural gas and oil including lack of access of markets, changes in pipeline and transportation tariffs and costs, increases in minimum sales quality standards for oil or natural gas, changes in the supply-demand status of gas or oil in a given market area, and the introduction of increased quantities of natural gas or oil into a given area due to new discoveries or new delivery systems; the impact of weather limiting or damaging operations and the occurrence of natural disasters such as fires, floods, hurricanes, earthquakes and other catastrophic events and natural disasters; the high-risk nature of drilling and producing natural gas and oil, including blow-outs, surface caterings, fires, explosions; the competitiveness of alternate energy sources or product substitutes; technological developments; changes in governmental regulation of the natural gas and oil industry potentially leading to increased costs and limited development opportunities; changes in governmental regulation of derivatives; developments in natural gas-producing and oil-producing countries potentially having significant effects on the price of gas and oil; the effects of changed accounting rules under generally accepted accounting principles and IFRS ; the amount of future abandonment and reclamation costs, asset retirement and environmental obligations; inability to execute strategic plans and realize projected economics, expectations and objectives for future operations and price risk management strategies; and the other risk factors identified in our most recent financial statements and management's discussion and analysis and Annual Informational Form and our other filings on SEDAR. Unpredictable or unknown factors not discussed herein also could have material adverse effects on our business and operations and on the forward-looking statements contained herein.
2
Forward Looking Statements
3
Financial Profile
Common Shares o/s (1) 59 million
Management ownership 46%
Share price (1) $ 1.30
Market capitalization $ 77 million
Net bank debt (2) $ 11 million
TOU share-based loan (3) $ 19 million
Term Loan (4) $ 35 million
Senior unsecured notes (2) $ 33 million
TOU Shares (1.67 million) (3) ($ 41 million)
Total net debt $ 57 million
Enterprise value $ 134 million
(1) Sept 7, 2017 market price; Fully diluted shares outstanding of 69.3 million includes 6.5 million warrants with an exercise price of $2.34/share
(2) Net bank debt, including net working capital estimated at June 30, 2017, adjusted for Q3 2017 financing transactions
(3) Loans secured by 1.67 MM Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TSX: “TOU”) shares; Market price Sept 7, 2017 $24.55/share
(4) Initial draw $35 million; Second draw of $10 million prior to November 30, 2017
Financial Profile
4
• Conventional shallow gas
• Mannville heavy oil
• Bitumen
• Viking/Colorado shallow shale gas
Eastern Alberta
• Edson Wilrich
• Multi-zone liquids-rich gas
• Tight oil & gas exploration
Deep Basin
LIQUIDS-RICH GAS East EdsonDeep Basin Other
SHALLOW GAS & OTHERConventional Misc.PannyTight Shallow Gas
HEAVY OILMannville
BITUMENPanny, Liege, Other
Asset Summary
Production (1) 11,400 boe/d
Natural Gas (84%) 58 MMcf/d
Oil and NGL (16%) 1,800 bbl/d
P+P Reserves (2) 61.3 MMboe
Reserve to Production Ratio (P+P) (RLI) (1) 15 Years
Bitumen (3) 399 MMbbl
Tourmaline Oil Corp. Shares – 1.67 million (4) $ 41 million
Operating Profile
(1) Production – August 2017
(2) Year end 2016
(3) Internal contingent resource estimate
(4) Market price of ~$24.55/TOU share Sept 7, 2017
5
High Graded Asset Base
Production base focused to East Edson Deep Basin and Mannville
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Pro
ved
an
d P
rob
able
Res
erv
es (
% o
f To
tal)
Building a foundation of resource-style plays
Robust multi-zone inventory for profitable exploration and development
High working interest, operatorship and infrastructure control
Higher value sales mix
Liquids-rich gas
Higher heat content gas
Condensate & NGL sales
Heavy oil
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E
Pro
du
ctio
n (
% o
f To
tal)
6Spectrum of opportunities to optimize value through variable commodity cycles
Short term investment as well as longer term value opportunities
• Mannville
• Mannville waterflood/EOR
• Heavy oil exploration
• Panny Bluesky
• Liege Grosmont & Leduc
• Bitumen land bank
• Mannville & Pannyconventional shallow gas
• Mannville Viking/Colorado shallow shale gas
• Tight conventional exploration
• Edson Wilrich
• Greater Edson secondary zones
• Columbia/Brazeau
• Deep Basin & Wilrichexploration
Liquids-Rich Gas
Shallow Gas
Heavy Oil
Bitumen
Diversified Portfolio for Value Creation
7Positioned to pursue profitable growth strategy
Grow Value of Greater Edson Liquids-Rich Gas
Optimize Value of Eastern Alberta Assets
Advance High Impact Opportunities
Optimize Balance Sheet For Growth
2017 Strategic Priorities
8
• Excludes 2017 ARO spending of up to $2.5
Financing transactions provide certainty to fund drilling program to restore production levels and grow funds flow
2017 Capital Spending
($ millions)
2017
H1
($ millions)
2017
H2 Forecast
($ millions)
2017
Total
($ millions)
West Central
Liquids-Rich Gas
$ 21
6 gross (6.0 net) drill
(complete 1 Q4 2016 drills
& 2 Q1 2017 drills)
$ 35 - $ 40
Up to 10 gross
(9.4 net) wells
(Complete 4 H1 2017 drills
& 7.4 net H2 2017 drills)
$ 56 - $ 61
Mannville Heavy Oil$ 4
4 gross (3.3 net) wells
$ 1
Waterflood conversions$ 5
Eastern Shallow Gas
$ 3
9 recompletions
1 gross (1.0 net) well &
complete 2
Viking/Colorado drills)
$ 1 $ 4
Total $ 28 $ 37 - $ 42 $ 65 - $ 70
9Forecast production per share growth of >60% over two years
Q4 2016 to Q4 2018
Capital plan to double production over 2 years
Funded capital program at forward strip prices
Front end loaded with ~60% exit rate production growth (Q4 2016 vs Q4 2017)
Q2 2018 step-up related to April 1, 2018 scheduled service date of additional TCPL firm transportation at East Edson
Forecast exit rate production per share growth of >60% over two years
Operations focus strengthens netbacks
East Edson unit operating costs <$3.00/boe
Expect PDP growth and 2P reserve replacement with cycling of East Edson technical reserves from prospect inventory; Net asset value created through improving capital efficiencies
Strong growth in funds flow and PDP value at current strip pricing to support expanding credit facility borrowing base capacity
Line of Sight Growth Plan
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017E Q4 2017E Q1 2018E Q2 2018E Q3 2018E Q4 2018E
Ave
rage
Dai
ly P
rod
uct
ion
(B
oe
/d)
Forecast Production
Forecast Gas Production Forecast Oil & NGL
STRATEGIC PRIORITY #1
GROW VALUE OF GREATER EDSON LIQUIDS-RICH GAS
Inventory of 145 (134.7 net) Wilrich locations76 (73.7 net) booked in reserve report
Edson Wilrich Liquids–Rich Gas
PERPETUAL
Pre 20172017 Drilled to Date2017 Drills Remaining2018 Drills (10 wells)
H2 2017 Extended Reach Horizontals
underway
12
Projected Economics per SW Drilling Location
Capital (D,C & T) $ 4.3 MM
NPV @ 10 % $ 4.2 MM
ROR 60%
F&D $ 6.39 / boe
Capital Efficiency $7,200 boe/d
Payout 1.6 Years
Recycle Ratio 2.5
Assumptions (McDaniel YE 2016 - July1/17 Pricing)
Year 1 Pricing$2.64/ GJ (Aeco)$46.29/bbl NGL
Operating Costs
$1.86/ boe (first year)
Well Depth 4,350 M HZ; 2,625 TVD
Type CurveIP 7.0 MMcf/d1 year exit rate 2.0 MMcf/d11.75 bbl/MMcf NGL/condensate
2P Reserves 4.1 Bcfe per well
Strong performance drove McDaniel Year-End 2016 SW type curve IP up 8% while 2P recoverable reserves/type curve well increased by 21%
McDaniel SW Type CurveMcDaniel NW Type CurveMcDaniel NE Type Curve Average of wells since 2014
East Edson Type Curves
13Targeting further improvements in first 12 months capital efficiency to
<$7,000 per flowing boe/d
East Edson Wilrich Capital Efficiency
Continuous improvement in drilling & frac design driving strong capital efficiency and reduced future development capital
• H1 2017 - Monobore design proved up for type curve length wells
• H2 2017 - Evaluating:
Optimized monobore design with consistent rig program and longer laterals
Extended reach wells (“ERH”) targeting 2,200 to 3,000 meter lateral lengths
Dissolvable frac balls, eliminating costs to drill out balls and seats
$-
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$0.0
$1.0
$2.0
$3.0
$4.0
$5.0
$6.0
$7.0
$8.0
$9.0
$10.0
2010-2012 2012-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 H2 2017EMonobore
H2 2017EERH
Ave
rage
We
ll C
apit
al C
ost
Pe
r H
ori
zon
tal L
en
gth
($
/me
ter)
Ave
rage
To
tal D
rilli
ng/
Co
mp
leti
on
/E&
T C
ost
(M
illio
ns)
Capital Costs
Total Drilling and Completions and E&T Capital Average Cost Per Horizontal Length
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
$18,000
$20,000
2010-2012 2012-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 H2 2017EMonobore
H2 2017EERH
Cap
ital
Eff
icie
ncy
–Fi
rst
12
mo
nth
s ($
/Bo
e/d
)
Capital Efficiency
Capital Efficiency (First 12 Months)
14Increasing production driving top quartile operating cost structure of <$2.50/boe
Top Quartile Operating Cost Structure
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Op
era
tin
g C
ost
($
/Bo
e)
Op
era
tin
g C
ost
($
M)
East Edson Operating Costs
Operating Costs Operating Costs ($/Boe)
2015: Growth driven by East Edson JV Royalty sale
•Ramp up to fill existing East Edson facilities
•Constructed new 30 MMcf/d West Wolf Lake plant on stream July 2015
•Expanded East Edson plant to 45 MMcf/d September 2015
•Drilled to fill East Edson facilities and transportation contracts
2016: Preserving Value in low gas price environment
•1 Q1 drill and Q3 frac & tie-in only
•Shut-in of negative cash flow sour volumes through third-party facility
2017: Drill to ramp up to existing plant & transport capacity
•1 rig Wilrich program drilling to fill existing infrastructure
60 MMcf/d plus NGL’s: 45 MMcf/d at West Wolf & 15 MMcf/d WI owner gas at Rosevear
2018: Grow to meet TCPL capacity growth
Add 15 MMcf/d compression capacity to match process at West Wolf plant
Continue 1 rig program to meet 78 MMcf/d transportation commitment by April 1 and maintain thereafter
2019: Sustain with Wilrich and Secondary Zone Evaluation
Secondary Viking, Notikewin, Fahler & Gething horizontal development potential supported by 3D seismic exploration
15Infrastructure and inventory in place for profitable growth
East Edson
West Edson Sold to Tourmaline April 1/15 for 6.75 million TOU shares estimated at $258 million (~5,750 Boe/d)
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E
Cu
mu
lati
ve P
rod
uct
ion
(M
Bo
e)
Bo
e/d
Greater Edson Liquids-Rich Gas Play Performance
16Plan to more than double production from Q4 2016 by April 2018 to match infrastructure capacity & transport
1) Includes GORR of 5.6 MMcf/d plus associated liquids to JV Partner
East Edson JV spending ramp up
West Edson Swap for TOU
Shares
East Edson New Plant start-up
Decision to defer capital spending
in 2016One rig drilling program commenced in Q4 2016
Greater Edson Production Growth
• 8 - 9 wells / year to sustain production at TCPL firm transportation of 78 MMcf/d
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Gas
Rat
e (
MM
cf/d
)
Greater Edson Daily Production
East Edson Base Production West Edson Edson Forecast Production TCPL Transportation
STRATEGIC PRIORITY #2
OPTIMIZE VALUE OF EASTERN ALBERTA ASSETS
18
Eastern Alberta - Mannville
Drilling recommenced in Q1 2017 after 2 year hiatus for oil price recovery & waterflood assessment
9 Producing Mannville pools*
• 6 Lloyd, 2 Sparky, 1 Basal Quartz
• > 150 MMbbl Original Oil in Place
• > 7.5 MMbbl @ 5% recovery factor
• 4.5 MMbbl produced to date (3%)
• Current production ~1,000 boe/d
Low exposure HZ development• $0.8 – $0.9 MM DC&T per well
Capital costs reduced by 30% materially enhances profitability in current commodity price environment
• Average expected initial rate ~60 bbl/d
2017 Capital Program
• Drilled 4 heavy oil wells in Q1
3 exploratory / 1 development
May de-risk up to 29 potential inventory locations
2 exploratory gas wells drilled and being evaluated
Waterflood Expansion
• 1 injection conversion to be completed in Q4 2017 (booked in McDaniel)
*7 of 9 pools shown
19Large scope for increased reserves and value through continued waterflood management and potential polymer or other enhanced recovery processes
Select Pools Currently Under
Waterflood
OOIP
(MMbbl)
Cumulativeproduction to YE 2016
(MMbbl)
P+P Reserves booked at YE 2016
(MMbbl)
Implied Recovery
Factor
(%)
InternalRemaining
Recoverable (3)
(MMbbl)
Potential Remaining with Improved
Secondary Recovery and EOR (4)
(10-15%)(MMbbl)
Sparky I2I (1) 23 0.5 0.4 4% 0.6 1.8 – 3.0
Upper Mannville B (2) 35 1.5 0.9 7% 1.0 2.0 – 3.8
Upper Mannville T8T 10 0.3 0.4 7% 0.7 0.7 – 1.2
Total 68 2.3 1.7 6% 2.4 4.5 – 8.0
(1) Net working interest
(2) Mannville B Channel facies excluded from values as waterfloodresponse is limited thus far; Mannville B Channel OOIP is an incremental 41 MMbbl of oil and represents additional upside
(3) Internal remaining recoverable oil with full waterflood development and infill drilling
(4) Scope for enhanced recovery through improved waterfloodperformance and new technologies
Significant resource potential through
improved waterflood
recoveries & new technologies
Internal Estimate ~ 40% higher than booked
reserves
Waterflood and Enhanced Oil Recovery Scope
STRATEGIC PRIORITY #3
ADVANCE HIGH IMPACT OPPORTUNITIES
21
>885 Bcf Resource In Place
OGIP estimated average 5.9 Bcf/section
Viking
> 342 Bcf potential recoverable resource
Assumes HZ development at 2 wells/section
Probable opportunity to double to 4 wells/section
Booked reserves
1.3 Bcf PPNP booked in recompletions
Proven development & capital commitment could drive substantial future bookings
Colorado
> 245 Bcf potential recoverable resource
Assumes HZ development at 2 wells/section
Probable opportunity to double to 4 wells/section.
Over 150 net prospective sections
Plant & pipeline infrastructure
Develop with Viking & Mannville tight sands to reduce costs & enhance economics
2015
Evaluated competitor activity to further refine geologic model, frac design, performance & costs expectations
Encouraging risk/reward at >$3/GJ gas price
Q4 2016/2017
Executing Viking/Colorado 2 well horizontal pilot
Fracture stimulation of wells has been deferred awaiting higher natural gas prices
Optionality on large resource in place
Risk-managed investment required to unlock technically for commercial development
Viking/ Colorado Hz Pilot
Competitor Hz Drills
Viking/Colorado Shallow Shale Gas
22
Excellent reservoir quality in Bluesky homogeneous estuarine sand facies
RoadsNatural Gas Pipeline Oil Well Effluent PipelinePerpetual Gas PlantPerpetual Oil Sands RightsOther Perpetual Lands
Low rate cold flow possible without solvent or thermal assistance
Average pay thickness 11 m
Low viscosity bitumen
• ~15,000 cp at 25oC
• 50,000 cp at 11oC reservoir temp
• Highly mobile at ~70oC
Panny Bluesky Resource Assessment
• 755 MMbbl Discovered OBIP (McDaniel 2011)
• Reservoir simulation model supports >50% recovery factor
• Resource to support >25,000 bbl/d commercial project for 20 - 25 years
LEAD Pilot Phase 1
• Phase 1 utilized a single horizontal well
• Heating commenced in October 2015
• First production in March 2016
• Cycle 2 May – September 2016
• Cycle 3 Solvent injection October 2016
• Cycle 4 December 2016 – May 2017
• IETP funding reimbursed 30% of all capital and operations costs through YE 2016
• Test data gathered is being evaluated
Experimenting with lower energy intensity extraction technologies compared to traditional steam-based thermal methods to mobilize bitumen
Panny LEAD Pilot
Bitumen – Panny Bluesky
STRATEGIC PRIORITY #4
OPTIMIZE BALANCE SHEET FOR GROWTH
24
Balance Sheet
Sufficient liquidity to fund growth-oriented capital program
Net bank debt: $11 million(1)
• Credit facility borrowing limit set at $40 million; Term extended until May 2019
• Next borrowing limit redetermination scheduled prior to November 30, 2017
Term Loan: $35 million• $45 million capacity. 8.1% interest rate; Matures March 2021
• Remaining $10 million draw required prior to November 2017
Senior Unsecured Notes: $32 million
TOU Share-based loan: $19 million• 40% loan to value ratio established at funding
• Margin triggers reset if loan to value ratio exceeds 55% (TOU share price< $20.44/share)
TOU Shares: 1.67 million @ $24.55/share: ($41 million)(1)
Total net debt less TOU share value = $ 56.5 million(1)
(1) Estimated at June 30, 2017, adjusted for July financing transactions
Series Face ValueCoupon
RateMaturity
DateSemi Annual Interest
Payment dates
8.75% 2019 $14.5 million 8.75% July 23, 2019 January 23 & July 23
8.75% 2022 $17.9 million 9.75% to Jan 2018;
8.75% thereafter
Jan 23, 2022 January 23 & July 23
25
Debt Repayment Profile
2017 financings strengthened debt repayment profile and secured funding for growth plans while enhancing liquidity
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
< 1 Year > 1 Year < 3 Years > 3 Years
Forecast Debt Repayment Profile 12/31/2017
TOU Loan Bank Debt Senior Notes Term Loan
13%
42%45%
26Transformational asset dispositions coupled with financing transactions materially improved balance sheet & established liquidity to execute growth strategy
Improving Balance Sheet
-
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E
De
bt
to A
dju
st F
un
ds
Flo
w (
X)
De
bt
($M
M)
Debt Total Net Debt to Adjusted Funds Flow
• Top quartile operating costs with elimination in 2016 of high fixed cost mature shallow gas assets combined with infrastructure control, and increasing production profile
• Reduced TCPL tolls through West Central Alberta concentration
• Reduced G&A with elimination of mature shallow gas assets
Reduced Costs
27
Increasing Netbacks
2018 Cash costs per boe down >25% improving netbacks
Increasing margins driven by:
-
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
-
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E
$/B
oe
$/B
oe
Operating Costs Transportation Costs Cash G&A Interest Royalites Revenue
28
Diversified natural gas pricing from AECO to a basket of market indices expected toenhance 2018 funds flow by ~ $1.2 million per year
Natural Gas Market Diversification Strategy
Established pricing across diversified portfolio of end-use markets
Locked in term spreads and swapped back to Daily Index at each downstream delivery point
Physical delivery at AECO NIT; 25,000 MMBtu/d
Receive Daily Index market price for each location, less published transportation and fuel costs, plus $.02 USD/MMBtu premium
Effective Nov 1, 2017; 5 year term
Full Opportunity to manage pricing / hedge new markets
Daily Index can be swapped to Monthly Index at any individual market to manage front month pricing
Term hedges can be established to manage price at any individual market, for all or any portion of the delivery period
Multiple advantages of spread strategy vs. contracting pipe capacity
5 year exposure vs. longer term generally required for contracted pipe capacity matches expected timing for AECO supply to re-balance in broader market
No regulatory requirements or export permits required for US markets
Credit efficient structure through physical delivery obligation at AECO
Expected to enhance funds flow in 2018
Estimated to enhance PMT netbacks in 2018 by $0.12/GJ on contracted volumes ($0.05/GJ blended across total 2018 volumes)
$1.70
$1.80
$1.90
$2.00
$2.10
$2.20
$2.30
$2.40
$2.50
$2.60
$2.70Perpetual Netback Price vs AECO Strip
AECO C$/GJ Perpetual Price C$/GJ on Netback
AECO
Empress 2,000
Dawn 5,000
Mich Con3,000
Chicago 8,000
Malin 7,000
2018 Natural Gas Markets (MMBtu)
INVESTMENT THESIS
TORQUE TO GAS PRICE RECOVERY
POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE EXPANSION RELATIVE
TO PEER GROUP
COMPELLING DISCOUNT TO NET ASSET VALUE
30
Torque to Gas Price Recovery
• ~ $10 to 13 million increase in adjusted funds flow (incremental $0.17 to $0.22 per share)
~25% increase in 2018 funds flow (1)
~10% reduction in year end 2018 debt
Combines to drive TTM Net Debt to Funds Flow ratio below 2 times
•Potential to realize proceeds from Call Option on 33,611 GJ/d to August 2018
Q1 2018: 10,000 GJ/d > $3.50/GJ; 23,611 GJ/d > $2.81/GJ
April – August 2018: 33,611 GJ/d > $2.81/GJ
•Increased likelihood of incremental value from investment in 1.667 million TOU shares
1) Assuming continued investment in production growth, 2018 funds flow forecast at current strip $40 to $45 million ($0.67 to $0.75 per share)
$0.50/GJ in 2018 gas price
Close to 90% natural gas weighting, call option from 2016 shallow gas disposition and TOU share investment compound leverage to improving natural gas prices
31
Share Price Performance
2017 EV/Debt Adjusted Funds
Flow
2018 EV/Debt Adjusted Funds
Flow2017 EV/Boe/d
2017 YE Debt/Funds
Flow
PMT Valuation (1) 6.6X 7.0X $16,000 6.0X
Jr. ProducerPeer Group Average (1) 6.8X 7.4X $26,000 2.9X
Internal Estimate 4.5X 4.0X $17,000 3.3X
Delivering on 2017/18 business plan should drive multiple expansion
(1) Peters & Co data August 28, 2017
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
110.00
120.00
130.00
10/3/2016 11/3/2016 12/3/2016 1/3/2017 2/3/2017 3/3/2017 4/3/2017 5/3/2017 6/3/2017 7/3/2017 8/3/2017 9/3/2017
Last 11 Months of Trading (Post Shallow Gas Disposition)
PMT TOU Peer Group
32
Sum of the Parts
Reserve-Based NAV, adjusted for debt, equity financing & TOU shares, is $6.36/share
Trading materially below reserve-based net asset value
(1) Year-end 2016 reserves based on McDaniel reserves and pricing, adjusted for 1.67 MM TOU shares @ $28/share and Q1 equity issuance(2) Undeveloped land replaced with risk-discounted prospect inventory; Includes appreciation of TOU shares based on 12 month TOU consensus
target price of $ 39/share(3) Unrisked prospect inventory; Includes appreciation of TOU shares based on 12 month TOU consensus target price of $ 39/share
33
Key Investment Highlights
High Quality Assets
Asset base repositioning for resource-style and diversification successful
Edson Wilrich liquids-rich gas inventory well-defined providing high capital efficiency growth
Mannville heavy oil delivering diversified cash flow with material secondary recovery potential
Prospects for short and long term growth from resource-style plays
Increasing percentage of high netback production in asset mix
Track Record of Operational Performance
Execution and operational excellence in chosen strategies
Multiple Levers to Manage Balance Sheet
Liquidity established to fund capital program
Additional potential for growth in available liquidity through credit facility expansion, TOU share price appreciation and future warrant exercise
Pursuing further asset dispositions to continue to enhance liquidity
Value
Trading well below ‘Reserve-Based’ Net Asset Value
Enterprise value/ debt-adjusted funds flow ~50% below peer average at 4.0 times 2018 funds flow at strip pricing
Tremendous leverage to gas prices with asset mix, Shallow Gas disposition call option and TOU exposure
High impact value potential from medium to long term assets
Spectrum of opportunities for value creation upon emergence from bottom of commodity price cycle
34
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
Sue Riddell Rose President & CEO
Mark Schweitzer VP Finance and CFO
Lorenzo Chiarastella Investor Relations
[email protected] EMAIL
800.811.5522 TOLL FREE
403.269.4400 PHONE
403.269.4444 FAX
3200, 605 – 5 Avenue SWCalgary, Alberta Canada T2P 3H5
W W W. P E R P E T U A L E N E R G Y I N C . C O M
APPENDIX
36
Transformational Transactions
Warwick Gas Storage Sale: (May 2016)
Sold remaining 30% partnership interest ($23 million)
Senior Notes Swap: (May 2016)
Retired Senior Notes via swap for 4.4 MM TOU shares ($214 million)
Shallow Gas Disposition: (Oct 2016)
Vast majority of Eastern Alberta shallow gas assets sold Oct 1/16 (nominal proceeds - Eliminated negative funds flow assets)
Reduced asset retirement obligation ($128 million)
Retained gas price upside exposure on ~90% of forecast production for 2 years
Financing Transactions: (H1 2017)
AIMCo 8.1% 4 year Term Loan & 5.4 MM warrants ($45 million)
Equity issuance 5.1 MM shares & 1.1 MM warrants ($9 million)
Senior Notes Management: (H1 2017)
Senior notes maturity extension to Jan 2022 ($17.9 million)
Early redemption of 2018 Senior Notes in April 2017 ($27.6 million)
Optimized Credit Facilities (H2 2017)
Increased reserve-based credit facility limit to $40 million capacity
Refinanced TOU share margin loan for lower cost
Positive Impact:
High graded asset base for increased netbacks
Established sustainable cost structure, including $6MM/year of reduced G&A
Strengthened balance sheet with 85% reduction in debt through $240 million repayment of senior notes and $67 million of new funding
Secured liquidity to execute growth-oriented capital program
Enhanced flexibility to manage TOU share investment
Improved debt maturity profile
Transformational transactions in 2016 & 2017 YTD position Perpetual for profitable growth and value creation
Nominal proceeds + 2 year call option
Deferred Purchase Price through 2 year call on AECO gas price > $2.81/GJ for 33,611 GJ/d
Metrics Impact
Production: (35.5 MMcfe/d)
Funds Flow: $5 - 10 MM/year
TPP Reserves: (14 MMboe)
NPV(10) TPP: $6.5 MM
Well Count: 2,952 to 495
ARO Liabilities (excl salvage): $123 MM to $35 MM
LLR: 2.1 to 3.8
Net Asset Value (PV10): $28.5 MM
37
Retained Assets West Central (including East Edson) Mannville (shallow gas & heavy oil) Panny (shallow gas & bitumen) Oil sands leases (& area P&NG) Other exploration acreage Gas over Bitumen royalty credit income stream
Disposed Assets 2,221 net wells
– 584 producing, 910 shut-in, 727 abandoned
353,777 net undeveloped acres
Accretive to Perpetual on all value metrics & 2 year gas price upside retained
Material decrease in production & reserves offset by increase in cash flow & value
Shallow Gas Disposition – October 1, 2016
38Inventory of 36 (32.3 net) locations of which 7 (6.0 net) are booked in McDaniel year end
Well Economics
Capital (D,C & T) $0.8 MM
NPV @ 10 % $1.1 MM
ROR 71%
F&D $12.32 / boe
Payout 1.5 years
Capital Efficiency(First Year)
$16,300/boe/d
Recycle Ratio(First Year)
2.8
Oil over shakers while drilling Sparky development pad HZ pad site
Assumptions
2017 Pricing(McDaniel Jan 2017 forecast)
CA$49.70/bbl wellhead heavy priceWTI US$55.00/bbl, WCS CA$53.70/bbl, Offset CA$-4.00/bbl
Operating Costs$5.90/boe (first year) &$12.70/boe (lifetime)
Average Well IP 75 bbl/d to 52 bbl/d in year 1
Ultimate Recovery 75 Mbbl per well
RoyaltiesMixed Crown (Modernized Royalty Framework) and Freehold
Mannville Heavy Oil Drilling Inventory
39
Working Interest 66.7%
OOIP: 38 MMbbl gross Cum Prod’n + McDaniel P+P: 0.9 MMbbl net (4% recovery factor)
Internal forecast: 1.1 MMbbl net (5% recovery factor)
20 Horizontals drilled to date10 inventory locations remain (5 booked in McDaniel)
1 well targeting banked waterflood oil drilled in 2017, currently producing at 90 bbl/d
Remaining locations pending additional pressure rebound from injection
Implementing Waterflood 7 injectors converted in 2013/2014
1 injection conversion remains in 2017 (booked in McDaniel)
Waterflood Response - Mannville I2I
Sparky Mid Type Log100/09-32-050-08W4/00
6 m OIL PAY
Sparky Mid Sand
> 24 % DENSITY POROSITY
Mannville I2IWaterflood Pool
Waterflood injection optimization showing increasing oil response
Increasing reservoir pressure allowed for drilling of infill targeting banked oil
0
100
200
300
400
500
6/1/2014 6/1/2015 6/1/2016 6/1/2017 6/1/2018
Oil
rate
(b
bl/
d)
Actual Oil Rate
Primary Recovery Forecast
Internal Forecast
Internal Plus Infill Wells
McDaniel PPDP
McDaniel TPP
Actual Oil Rate Without Infill
Primary Recovery Forecast
Internal Forecast McDaniel YE 2016
40
Conventional Shallow Gas
Belly River
Viking
Grand Rapids
Lower Mannville
Pre Cretaceous Unconformity
Conventional shallow gas asset base characteristics
Primarily Mannville Area remaining post shallow gas disposition
Cretaceous sweet shallow gas <800m
Current production ~ 6.4 MMcf/d
Base declines < 10 -15%
Multiple stacked zones and play types sourcing recompletion inventory
Extensive plant & pipeline infrastructure with unutilized capacity
High fixed operating costs driven by municipal taxes and low volume wells
Marginal current netbacks highly leveraged to improving natural gas prices
Operational Focus
Facility optimization projects, workovers and uphole recompletions payout in months
Low cost production and reserves adds
23 recompletions/workovers/optimizations added 1.7 MMcf/d since Dec 2016
Drive fixed and variable operating cost reductions
Metering, municipal taxes, scaled-back operational approach, execute ARO
Further reduce asset retirement obligation project costs
Prospecting for tight reservoirs in high resource potential traps for development with horizontal wells & multi-stage frac technology
Value optimization focuses on intense program approach to recompletion/workovers combined with abandonment and reclamation projects
301 net sections (192,416 net acres) of oil sand leases
Various formation targets and ultimate recovery methods
6 potential project areas with varying potential
Over 3 billion bbls OBIP(1) at Liege and Panny
278 Mbbl contingent resource
467 MMbbl additional prospective resource
Sold 37 net sections of select oil sands leases for $6.1 million in Q1 2016
Retained 1% GORR
41Bitumen lands represent large resource in place and material option value
R1W5 R21 R17 R13W4R5R9
T98
T95
Perpetual OS Leases
Overriding Royalty Lands
Perpetual Panny Pilot
Experimental
Primary Projects
Thermal Projects
(1) McDaniel 2011 estimate ~ equivalent to internal estimate
Bitumen
42Electrical heating cable with water injection for mobility and pressure support
First stage of pilot – single well Cyclic Heat Stimulation currently operating
Electrical resistive heating and production in a single horizontal well to validate reservoir flow model and heater technology
Two highly instrumented observation wells in close proximity to the horizontal heater well monitoring reservoir response
Commenced electrical heating in October 2015; First production in March 2016
Four cycles executed through 2016 and Q1 2017 of varying heat stimulation and solvent parameters
Exceeded cumulative oil production expectations by >100%
Second stage of pilot
Guided by first stage learnings and economic viability assessment to be scoped in 2017
Initial 10,000 to 15,000 bbl/d development if pilot successful and economically viable
Drilling-intensive technology allows for scalability without large upfront capital commitment of steam projects
Top Gas
Heaters / Injectors
Oil
Producer
LEAD Pilot Stage 2 Configuration
LEAD Process Technology PilotLow Pressure Electro-Thermally Assisted Drive