black swan disaster scenarios
TRANSCRIPT
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Post-Fukushima Disaster Research
01 "Disaster Information WG" http://www.bousai.go.jp/jishin/nankai/taisaku_wg (current)
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The Scenario Method
• hand-made scenarios
• region- and event-specific
• scenarios are improved via local drills
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Problems
• rare events are completely ignored
• BigData does not help -- so it is not used
• very little room for automation -- mostly manual work
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Blackswan Scenarios
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BlackSwan : The Definition
.Black Swans..
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... are extremely rare but also extremely heavy impact events02
• other names: low predictability events, rare events, etc.
• BlackSwans are already defined in engineering 03 04
• BlackSwan scenarios focus on rare events
03 L.McGinty+1 "Black Swans, Gray Cygnets and Other Rare Birds" Springer LNAI vol.5650 (2009)
04 A.Nafday "Consequence-based structural design approach for black swan events" Elsevier J. Structural Safety (2011)
02 N.Taleb "The black swan: the impact of highly improbable" Penguin (2008)
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The BlackSwan Scenario : Basics
Occurrence Frequency
Increasing Impact
1 2
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Scenario (1) Combine and Review.Event .....
....can be primitive or complex (consist of other events)
Occurrence Frequency
Increasing Impact
1 2
• fix a swan method is used inconstruction -- resilient design04
• the main problem is todiscover BlackSwans
04 A.Nafday "Consequence-based structural design approach for black swan events" Elsevier J. Structural Safety (2011)
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Scenario (1) Event Order• complexity of BlackSwan events should have finite order
Order
1
2
3
Enough!
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Components
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Components (1) Rating
• w is weight, F(v, t) is the evaluationof an event within a time window,occurrence probability (rank) then is:
Rk =∑i=1..t
wiFk(v, t), (1)
• w is a distribution (matrix math)
• potential (risk) of a given event:
Pk = |Rk,i − Rk,i−1|. (2)
• the entire blackswan scenario can beevaluated as.
E = var({Pk}). (3)
• evolution of that evaluation in time:
EVO = var({Et}). (4)
• the conventional bin packing problemcan be applied to potential (of risk):
minimize∑i=1,n
∑j=1,m
Pij. (5)
06 T.Aven "Identification of safety and security critical systems and activities" J of Rel. Eng. Sys. Safety (2009)
07 R.Kennet+1 "Quality, Risk and the Taleb Quadrants" IBM T.J.Watson Research Chapter (2009)
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Components (2) Hotpots• 4 sets: normal versus hot and baseline hot versus Flash Crowdhot
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e)09 M.Zhanikeev+1 "Popularity-Based Modeling of Flash Events in Synthetic Packet Traces" CQ研 (2012)
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System Design
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BlackSwan Scenario : Specs
• create and maintain BigData• discover BlackSwans by processing BigData
• use automation as much as possible
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BlackSwan Scenario : Design• at least 3 classes of textual soup that makes events
Accident Something happened at Site A Causes Part A, Part B, Part C, … Human Factors… All Parts Part Z, Part Y, …, Human Manuals, … Rating
Blackswan scenario management platform
Storage, Database
Human judgment
Auto judgement
Report on site
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BlackSwan Discovery
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BlackSwan Discovery Automation
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BlackSwan Automation (2)• complexity is reduced by using humans as trainers
A very complex system
A less complex system
Tell what to do
Robot
Human
Search the space
Robot
Human
Search the space What
should I do?
Guide through feedback
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BlackSwan Autumation (3)
Rebot
(careless) Input
Human Human
{structure}
(pinpoint) Select
Browse (or use otherwise)
Some Knowledge
(folksonomies, knowledge bases, databases, indexes, ontologies, etc.)
(metromaps )
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BlackSwan Automation = Context
• ← NOTE! the two previous slides came from my research on contextmanagement
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BlackSwan Automation : Software
• improved Bayesian classifiers that learn via feedback• I use metromaps as visual interface between human and machine
• already have/published some prototypes
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Wrapup
• decent Disaster Relief can only happen if the BigData from previousdisasters is digested
• predictable events are easy, BlackSwans are hard• with automation, proper context management and social design it canbe done
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