biofuel impacts on ecosystem services, biodiversity and ...sustainable bioeconomy overall aim:...
TRANSCRIPT
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Biofuel impacts on ecosystem services,
biodiversity and human well-being – the
contribution of SWAT modelling to integrated land
use governance
Lorenzo Di Lucia, Nicole Kalas, Jeremy Woods
Imperial College London
SWAT conference, 24-26 June 2015, Pula
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Ecosystem services, biodiversity and human well-
being
Ecosystem services are benefits people obtain from
ecosystems:
- Provisioning (food, fuels, fibre, timber, etc),
regulating (flood or pest control, climate regulation),
- Supporting (services necessary for the delivery of
other services, such as nutrient cycling)
- Biodiversity own category or supporting
- Cultural
Landscapes provide services which benefit humans
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Governance of land (scapes)
• Land use and management
influences system processes and
structure and thus the provision of
services
• Trade-offs between ecosystem
services
• How should we deal with trade-offs?
• Risk of sub-optimal allocation of land
and societal conflict
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Biofuels
New demands of land for the
production of biomass for biofuel
can:
+ reduce transport GHG
emissions, improve food
security, provide development
opportunities in rural areas
- compete with food production,
and contribute to climate
change and biodiversity loss
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ILAMS project
Integrated Land Management Solutions for a Sustainable Bioeconomy
Overall aim: provide tools to promote wider agreement on the role of bioenergy technologies for environmental quality and human well-being
Decision making support tool:
- Landscape assessment of the impacts of biofuel systems on ecosystem services and human well-being
- Simulate alternative scenarios of land use & management
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ILAMS - Case studies
1. Biodiesel from soya bean –
Mato Grosso, Brazil
2. Ethanol from sweet sorghum
– Texas, US
3. Ethanol from giant reed
(Arundo Donax) – Sardinia,
Italy
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Sardinian case study
Ethanol production unit:
• Biochemtex Technology:
second generation ethanol
• 400 kt/y biomass
feedstock - 160 kt/y
imported wheat straw, and
240 kt/y GR (210 kt/y
cultivated)
• Output: 80 kt/y ethanol and
240 kt/y wet lignin
Why Sardinia?
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ILAMS project
Decision making
support tool
Integrated Model
User interface
Stakeholder engagement
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Stakeholders’ engagement
Aim: allow stakeholders to articulate their preferences
in relation to biofuel, ecosystem services and human
well-being
1. Assessment of stakeholders:
- Key concerns
- Alternative scenarios for land use/management
2. Simulation of scenarios with stakeholders
- Workshop
- Facilitate discussions
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Stakeholders engagement in Sardinia
Biofuel controversial
issue
Wide range of
stakeholders
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Results of stakeholders assessment
Key concerns
• Water availability
• Food security and production of (high quality) food
• Employment
• Biodiversity
Alternative scenarios
• Irrigation using recycled water WWT
• Use of polluted land (mines/industrial sites)
• Use of marginal land (not cultivated in last 5 years)
• Introduction/expansion of corridors and improved
protection of preservation areas
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ILAMS project
Decision making
support tool
Integrated Model
User interface
Stakeholder engagement
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Integrated model
• Cover all stakeholders’ key concerns
• Simulate current status and alternative
scenarios of land use/management
• Landscape approach
Use existing models
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Sub-models
1. Biophysical processes module
• SWAT – water availability, crop
production, carbon storage
• InVEST habitat quality & MatrixGreen
– biodiversity
• InVEST carbon – carbon storage
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2. GHG emissions module
• LCA (excel) – GHG emission of
biofuel
• Inventory (excel) – GHG of transport
and el/heat in the landscape
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3. Human well-being module
• Mass balance model (excel) –
food/feed/energy security
• Employment generation (ArcGIS)
• Revenues (ArcGIS) – farm revenues
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1. SWAT
Outputs of interest:
- Water availability
- Crop production
- Carbon storage (biomass
above & below ground and
DOM)
Data:
- DEM 10m - Sardinia Region
- LULC - CORINE 2011
- Soil - European Soil Database
- Weather - CFSR
- Digitalized river stream
network - Sardinia Region
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SWAT - Watershed delineation
Conditions:
• 6000 ha
• Potentially
irrigated
• 75km max
distance from
production unit
• Outside protected
areas
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Basin:
550 000 ha
108 subbasins
851 HRS
Land use:
10% forest
12% rangeland
60% agriculture
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SWAT – ongoing work
- More accurate LULC map
- Land management data
- Data for reservoirs and WWT
- Run and calibrate model
- Prepare alternative scenarios
Polluted land Abandoned land
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1. InVEST – habitat quality
Habitat quality as an indicator of the status of
biodiversity. Areas of high quality are generally better
able to maintain biodiversity
Data
- LULC
- Threats (urban&industry, agriculture, roads)
- Habitat accessibility (parks & reserves)
- Habitat sensitivity (grasslands < forests <
wetlands)
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Habitat quality – preliminary results
Habitat quality map
- Quality of habitat
- Proximity to threats
Habitat degradation map
• Distance to threats
• Habitat sensitivity
• Habitat accessibility
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1. MatrixGreen - connectivity
• It models connectivity and
spatial distribution of
habitats.
• Data: map of habitats
• Component based
connectivity
• Outputs: map and total
value of habitat connectivity
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1. InVEST – carbon storage (modified)
Storage is the amount of
carbon in an ecosystem
at any given point in time
Carbon stock as a
function of land use/land
cover
Data:
- LULC
- Carbon coefficients for
each LULC class
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1. Carbon storage
4 carbon pools:
• Above ground biomass
• Below ground biomass
• Dead Organic Matter
• Soil Carbon
Carbon coefficients
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2. GHG emissions – biofuel LCA
• Impact of the project on GHG emissions of the area
• Production of biofuels generates GHG credits
• Incl. cultivation, harvest, transport and transformation
• Exclude LUC
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3. Human well-being - Security
• Security as physical availability of water,
food, feed and energy
• Mass balance for the watershed
• Excel files
Water
Availability from SWAT results
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3. Human well-being - Security
Food security
• Supply: crop production
(SWAT) + animal
production data (milk &
meat)
• Consumption per
family/person: food
statistics for the region
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3. Human well-being - Security
Feed security
• Supply: feed production
from pasture, rangeland,
crops (SWAT)
• Consumption: number of
animals (cows,
goats/sheep and pigs)
and intake coefficients
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3. Human well-being - Security
Energy security
• Supply: energy provided
from resources within
watershed (coal, wind,
solar & biomass)
• Consumption: energy
used for transport, el/heat
per person, or ha within
watershed
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Employment generation
Employment
• Agricultural
employment
coefficients
• Agricultural
employment GR for
cultivation, harvest,
transport (Beta
Renewables data
for subcontractor)
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ILAMS project
Decision making
support tool
Integrated Model
User interface
Stakeholder engagement
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User interface
• Allow users to simulate
scenarios
• Simple, transparent and
responsive to end-user
needs
• Information on the
spatial distribution of
ecosystem services
• Understanding of trade-
offs and win-win
opportunities
Example The Global Calculator
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Conclusions
• Modelling is a tool that can be used to build
consensus about biofuels, minimizing
conflicts and improving project outcomes
• It requires knowledge integration -
biophysical, technical and social aspects
• SWAT can be used with other models to
provide a comprehensive understanding of
biofuel impacts at landscape level
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Thank you for the attention!