bighorn basin operations and water supply meeting...current reservoir conditions . as of april 11,...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Bighorn Basin Operations and Water Supply Meeting...Current Reservoir Conditions . As of April 11, 2016 . Reservoir Content % of Full % of Avg . Boysen 590,882 80% 109% . Bull Lake](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052011/60266c5a987e0713313ada74/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Bighorn Basin Operations and Water Supply Meeting April 14, 2016
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Boysen Dam And
Buffalo Bill Dam Operations
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Current Reservoir Conditions As of April 11, 2016
Reservoir Content % of Full % of Avg Boysen 590,882 80% 109% Bull Lake 71,924 47% 93% Buffalo Bill 440,857 68% 106%
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SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT - % MEDIAN DRAINAGE BASIN 4/11/2016 4/4/2016 3/28/2016 4/11/2015 4/11/2014 4/11/2013
SNAKE RIVER 93 98 100 83 143 92
MADISON 86 87 93 62 120 94
YELLOWSTONE 88 94 91 86 152 93
WIND RIVER 95 105 90 73 125 80
BIGHORN BASIN 80 89 80 80 149 90
SHOSHONE RIVER 96 94 95 77 153 89
POWDER 81 92 81 80 156 98
TONGUE 66 76 63 75 140 82
BELLE FOURCHE 35 64 53 0 181 74
CHEYENNE 14 58 60 0 135 81
UPPER N. PLATTE 97 101 100 62 125 77
SWEETWATER 88 95 85 54 108 67
LOWER N. PLATTE 108 120 100 50 125 66 LARAMIE 108 117 117 67 136 78
S. PLATTE 126 133 127 69 142 80
LITTLE SNAKE RIVER 92 101 101 46 123 70
UPPER GREEN 95 101 99 89 157 82
LOWER GREEN 98 110 104 54 126 90
UPPER BEAR 84 99 96 52 113 79
Weighted State Average 85 97 90 61 139 83
Red = down blue = up green = even * data is suspect
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National Weather Service Three Month Outlook
Temperature Outlook - April, May, June 2016 Precipitation Outlook - April, May, June 2016
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Bighorn Basin Water Supply Forecast April 1 Forecast of April – July Snowmelt Runoff
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Boysen Forecast - April
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
161-
Oct
1-N
ov
1-D
ec
1-Ja
n
1-Fe
b
1-M
ar
1-A
pr
1-M
ay
1-Ju
n
1-Ju
l
Snow
Wat
er E
quiv
alen
t (In
ches
)
2013 2014 2015 2016 AVG.
A-J Inflow (acre-feet)
2013 216,300
2014 694,500
2015 749,700
2016 ??
30-year avg. 548,300
2016 Forecast 350 350 350 550
![Page 10: Bighorn Basin Operations and Water Supply Meeting...Current Reservoir Conditions . As of April 11, 2016 . Reservoir Content % of Full % of Avg . Boysen 590,882 80% 109% . Bull Lake](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052011/60266c5a987e0713313ada74/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Boysen Forecast – Full Year
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
161-
Oct
1-N
ov
1-D
ec
1-Ja
n
1-Fe
b
1-M
ar
1-A
pr
1-M
ay
1-Ju
n
1-Ju
l
Snow
Wat
er E
quiv
alen
t (In
ches
)
2013 2014 2015 2016 AVG.
A-J Inflow (acre-feet)
2013 216,300
2014 694,500
2015 749,700
2016 ??
30-year avg. 548,300
2016 Forecast 350 350 350 550
![Page 11: Bighorn Basin Operations and Water Supply Meeting...Current Reservoir Conditions . As of April 11, 2016 . Reservoir Content % of Full % of Avg . Boysen 590,882 80% 109% . Bull Lake](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052011/60266c5a987e0713313ada74/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
0
600
1200
1800
2400
3000
Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-164705.0
4710.0
4715.0
4720.0
4725.0
4730.0
Flow
in c
ubic
feet
per
seco
nd
Water Year 2016
Elev
atio
n in
feet
BOYSEN RESERVOIR OPERATIONS Water Year 2016 Projection
Inflow Outflow Elevation
Top of Joint Use Pool = 4725.0 ft
Approximate Powerplant Capacity = 2,300 cfs
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Buffalo Bill Forecast - April
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
271-
Oct
1-N
ov
1-D
ec
1-Ja
n
1-Fe
b
1-M
ar
1-A
pr
1-M
ay
1-Ju
n
1-Ju
l
Snow
Wat
er E
quiv
alen
t (In
ches
)
2013 2014 2015 2016 AVG.
A-J Inflow (acre-feet)
2013 576,500
2014 1,062,400
2015 696,400
2016 ??
30-year avg. 686,300
2016 Forecast 620 620 600 620
![Page 13: Bighorn Basin Operations and Water Supply Meeting...Current Reservoir Conditions . As of April 11, 2016 . Reservoir Content % of Full % of Avg . Boysen 590,882 80% 109% . Bull Lake](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052011/60266c5a987e0713313ada74/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Buffalo Bill Forecast – Full Year
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
271-
Oct
1-N
ov
1-D
ec
1-Ja
n
1-Fe
b
1-M
ar
1-A
pr
1-M
ay
1-Ju
n
1-Ju
l
Inch
es o
f Sno
w W
ater
Equ
ival
ent
2013 2014 2015 2016 AVG.
A-J Inflow (acre-feet)
2013 576,500
2014 1,062,400
2015 696,400
2016 ??
30-year avg. 686,300
2016 Forecast 620 620 600 620
![Page 14: Bighorn Basin Operations and Water Supply Meeting...Current Reservoir Conditions . As of April 11, 2016 . Reservoir Content % of Full % of Avg . Boysen 590,882 80% 109% . Bull Lake](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052011/60266c5a987e0713313ada74/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Buffalo Bill Reservoir Operations
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5300
5320
5340
5360
5380
5400
Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16
Flow
in C
ubic
Fee
t per
Sec
ond
Elev
atio
n in
Fee
t
Water Year 2016
Inflow Outflow Elevation
Top of Conservation Elev. 5393.5 feet
Approximate Powerplant Capacity = 1,500 cfs
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Yellowtail Dam and Bighorn Lake Operations Review
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Recap of Fall and Winter 2015/2016
Total April-October Gain = 239,300 acre-feet Forecasted November-March Gain = 258,200 acre-feet Upstream Reservoir Fall & Winter Releases = Boysen = 850 cfs Buffalo Bill = 205 cfs End-of-October Storage = 952,900 acre-feet Projected End-of-March Target Elevation = 3617 (807,900
acre-feet) Calculated Fall & Winter Release for Yellowtail: River = 2,450 cfs
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Recap of Fall and Winter 2015/2016
Nov-Mar Gains: Forecast on November 1, 2015: 258.2 kaf (101% of Avg) Actual November-March Gains: 279.0 kaf (109% of Avg)
Total Nov-Mar Inflow: Forecast on November 1, 2015: 575.1 kaf (100% of Avg) Actual November-March Inflows: 590.3 kaf (103% of Avg)
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3600
3605
3610
3615
3620
3625
3630
3635
3640
3645
3650
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Lake
Ele
vatio
n (fe
et)
Bighorn Lake Operations 2016
2016
Top of Joint Use
Most Probable
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Flow
(cfs
)
Inflow
Releases
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Snowpack and
Precipitation
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March 1, 2016
April 13, 2016
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Snow
Wat
er E
quiv
alen
t (in
ches
)
Mountain Snowpack on January 1
Average 2016 2015
SWE = 70% of Average April-July Forecast = 711.3 kaf (64%)
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Snow
Wat
er E
quiv
alen
t (in
ches
)
Mountain Snowpack on February 1
Average 2016 2015
SWE = 70% of Average April-July Forecast = 596.2 kaf (54%)
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Snow
Wat
er E
quiv
alen
t (in
ches
)
Mountain Snowpack on March 1
Average 2016 2015
SWE = 75% of Average April-July Forecast = 625.7 kaf (56%)
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Snow
Wat
er E
quiv
alen
t (in
ches
)
Mountain Snowpack on April 1
Average 2016 2015
SWE = 91% of Average April-July Forecast = 873.0 kaf (78%)
April – July Inflow Year Forecast
(kaf) Actual (kaf)
2016 873 ?
2015 676 1,543 Average 1114.3
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Snow
Wat
er E
quiv
alen
t (in
ches
)
Mountain Snowpack on April 13
Average 2016 2015 2007
April – July Inflow
Year Actual (kaf)
2016 873? 2015 1,543 2007 613
Average 1,114
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Prec
ipita
tion
(inch
es)
Bighorn River Basin Precipitation
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2016 Outlook
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Bighorn Lake April – July Forecast
Most Probable Inflow 873,000 af or 78% of average
Minimum Probable Inflow 485,800 af or 44% of average
Maximum Probable Inflow 1,304,300 af or 117% of average
April – July Inflow
Year Forecast (kaf)
Actual (kaf)
2016 873 ?
2015 676 1,543
2014 1,967 1,725
2013 661 628
2012 1,064 693
2011 1,400 2,572
Average 1,114
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0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
2,250
2,500
2004
2002
2001
2006
2003
1977
1985
1994
2007
1989
2013
2000
1988
2012
1987
1992
1990
2016
1979
1980
1969
1981
2005
1982
1973
1968
1993
1970
1998
2008
1976
1984
1972
1983
2010
2015
1996
1974
1991
2009
1986
1995
2014
1971
1978
1975
1999
1997
1967
Inflo
w (k
af)
Bighorn Lake April through July Inflow Period of Record 1967-2015
Average = 1,114.3 kaf 873.0 kaf
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0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
3590
3595
3600
3605
3610
3615
3620
3625
3630
3635
3640
3645
3650
Apr May Jun Jul
Riv
er R
elea
se (c
fs)
Lake
Ele
vatio
n (fe
et)
April 1 Rule Curve
Rule Curve Top of Joint Use Inflow River Release
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3595
3600
3605
3610
3615
3620
3625
3630
3635
3640
3645
Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17
Elev
atio
n (fe
et)
Most Probable Inflow Operations
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17
Riv
er F
low
(cfs
)
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3595
3600
3605
3610
3615
3620
3625
3630
3635
3640
3645
Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17
Elev
atio
n (fe
et)
Most and Minimum Probable Inflow Operations
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17
Riv
er F
low
(cfs
)
![Page 33: Bighorn Basin Operations and Water Supply Meeting...Current Reservoir Conditions . As of April 11, 2016 . Reservoir Content % of Full % of Avg . Boysen 590,882 80% 109% . Bull Lake](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052011/60266c5a987e0713313ada74/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
3595
3600
3605
3610
3615
3620
3625
3630
3635
3640
3645
Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17
Elev
atio
n (fe
et)
Most and Maximum Probable Inflow Operations
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17
Riv
er F
low
(cfs
)
![Page 34: Bighorn Basin Operations and Water Supply Meeting...Current Reservoir Conditions . As of April 11, 2016 . Reservoir Content % of Full % of Avg . Boysen 590,882 80% 109% . Bull Lake](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052011/60266c5a987e0713313ada74/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
3595
3600
3605
3610
3615
3620
3625
3630
3635
3640
3645
Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17
Elev
atio
n (fe
et)
Most, Minimum, and Maximum Probable Inflow Operations
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17
Riv
er F
low
(cfs
)
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Questions and Feedback
The information presented at this meeting can be found on the Montana Area Office website at:
www.usbr.gov/gp/mtao/yellowtail/index.html