1

Biased Risk Decisions:

(Re)searching for an Educational Remedy

EAPRIL Luxembourg 25th Nov 2015

Ab Bertholet

Utrecht University of Applied Sciences (NL)

Department of Safety and Security Management Studies

Present & Discuss Session

1. Introduction

2. Problem analysis

3. Process model

4. Critical competences

5. Educational intervention

6. Experimental setting

7. Discussion

1. Introduction

Lecturer/researcher at Utrecht University of Applied

Sciences (NL); Department Safety & Security

Management Studies

Master of Evidence Based Innovation in Teaching

(MEBIT) at Maastricht University (NL)

Main teaching field: Risk and Crisis Communication

Research field (PhD): Risk Intelligence and Risk Skill

NO THREATS?

2. Problem Analysis

Safety & Security Management

2. Problem Analysis

Safety & Security Management

Risk Management as a Core Task

Reducing Risk and Risk Effects

Safety and Security Risks

3. Process Model

3. Process Model

Tools for Risk Decision Making

Formulas

Models

Protocols

Checklists

Hardware

Software

…But still from time to time things are goingwrong… i.e. wrong decisions are made

• Social Psychology• Behavioural Economy• Educational Psychology

‘It’s the human way of thinking that leads tosystematic biases andirrational Risk Decisions’

Risicomanagement

Risico-intelligentie• Helder denken• Kritisch denken• Gecijferdheid • Risicogeletterdheid

Risicocommunicatie

A.G.E.M. Bertholet (2015)

1 Cognitive IllusionBayesian probabilitiesExtremely small probabilitiesQuantitative argumentation

2 Systematic biasesConfirmation biasOverestimation biasAvailibility bias

1 2

3

3 Systematic biasesConfirmation biasHindsight bias

Biased Analysis and Decision Making

4. Critical Competences

A.G.E.M. Bertholet (2015)

5. Educational Intervention

Reflective practitioner

Metacognition

Various instruction strategies: visualization, gamefication, blended methods, doses variation

S&S bachelor students and airport security agents

Evidence based design of experiment

6. Experimental setting

Intervention ‘Security Performance’

Training Airport Security Agents at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol

1

Collectingcases

2

Pre Test

3

WorkshopsCritical

Competences

4

ExtensiveTraining

5

Post Test

6

Retention Test

Critical decisionmoments of the airport operationData from desk research, interviews andobservation

Same test forIntervention andcontrol groupPilot phase with60 agents per group

Two workshops on awareness and applicationin practice forinterventiongroup only

Same test forInterventionand control group tocomparedifferences

Testingretention after 2 or 3 months

Dayly 1-item Test to buildheuristics

7. Discussion

“Education and training can contribute to advancedcompetences in risk decision making by bachelor students and security agents”

7. Discussion: What might/will work?

• Strategies

• Teaching methods

• Other suggestions

“Education and training can contribute to advancedcompetences in risk decision making by bachelor students and security agents”

ab.bertholet@hu.nl