State of the market: Where African broadcast and film has come from and where it’s going - Africa's multi-screen multi-channel futureRussell Southwood, Balancing Act

www.balancingact-africa-com

@BalancingActAfr

African TV Broadcasting: Where are we now? Business, hobby or political

patronage? Examples of the breed: Compare to newspapers in 1960s

Britain. Calling card and access. Barter and grey areas. Case study: Cameroon (Population: c20 million) 4-5 main players, 15 players overall Estimated total advertising spend: US$39-58.5 m per

annum Estimated 40% spent on TV; 35-50% discount on rate card

with forward payment, sponsorship deals Estimated US$15.6-23.4 m on TV advertising Work elsewhere. 80% of advertising goes to main players. Remaining 10 stations share estimated US$3.12-4.68 m

Seeing the future The things you know: Price of

Internet bandwidth falls, numbers using

goes up. Underlying logic obvious.

• The thing you don’t know: What future

scenario specialists call the the

“wild cards”

• Going to look at both in 5 areas

Three different types of viewer Lean-back viewers: Happy to be presented with something

to watch in the evening. May even stay with a single channel for much of the evening. Who controls the remote? Not passive (see 1980s BRU research) but not completely active. In the home

Social media viewer: Uses several devices while watching. Comments on programme while watching. Likes the conversation.

Lean forward viewer: TV not always the first choice. Looks at You Tube, Vimeo or wherever. Takes recommendations from social media and friends. More solitary. Uses laptop or tablet anywhere.

Underlying logic: Time-based channels become a form of marketing for watching across multiple devices.The nation at prayer to the church of your choice

Country Aug-10 Apr-11 Oct-11Dec-11 May-12 Jun-12 Oct-12

South Africa 3.1 million 3.8 million 4.4 million 4.8 million 4.7 million 4.96 million 6.5 million

Nigeria 1.7 million 2.9 million 3.8 million 4.3 million 4.6 million 5.86 million 6.7 million

Kenya 864,760 1.03 million 1.3 million1.29 million 1.39 million 1.4 million 1.97 million

Ghana 621,000 906,540 1 million1.14 million 1.24 million 1.28 million 1.67 million

Senegal 299,340 447,840 578 880620,260 660,080 665,880 678,420

Uganda 196,000 280,600 330,780346,980 206,100 414,260 532,920

Tanzania 141,580 259,120 352,000414,540 497,940 518,460 676,420

Botswana 86,060 112,180 138,140167,180 218,100 223,660 286,740

Angola 63,860 112,180 277,640322,300 421,960 433,520 597,460

Zambia 56,640 117,520 157,760177,820 228,940 235,700 320,280

Malawi 46,660 79,040 95,820112,100 134,700 139,540 209,300

Namibia 15,100 127,260 123,820134,149 84,100 172,400 231,720

Sierra Leone 8,780 34,100 44,76048,520 57,080 58,040 73,680

Facebook growth 2010-2012)

1. Not everybody’s watching TV - Online: Social media, downloads, etc You Tube in Top 10 of all African countries tracked by

Alexa.com despite awful bandwidth. iROKO Growth of VoD platforms: iROKO, Buni TV, Afrinolly,

MyTVAfrica, Wabona and Waabeh Mobile as a media – Deal and payment issues to be resolved Two impacts: Cuts across the time-based programme

template. 18-35 yr olds Internet savvy. Will look for and download. No stats on peer-to-peer but out there

It all takes time. Either simultaneous with TV or in competition with it.

Underlying logic: Compete by offering something on all platforms

2. Local, local, local The local production conundrum: Most programming rights

costs on avg US$200-500 per hour Expensive end: $1-2,000.

Cost of locally produced drama by TV channel: $9,000 Less if produced independently. US$10-15,000 in-house. Between 20-80% of TV is local. Local content quotas

Convincing either the major players in the market or the challengers (eg Citizen TV, Nation’s swahili channel) Some channel opportunities for those with catalogue (Bob TV’s Q)

Public broadcasters – Always element of commissioning Secondary (Mobisodes, Repeats, Sales elsewhere on

continent) Underlying logic: Co-productions and international sales

3. Time-based to themed channels In the most liberalised markets, the number of FTA channels

might double or triple. Already the number of pay TV channels has doubled or tripled in main markets.

The standard 1970s model of TV programming remains the default template

News – Other stuff – News – Other stuff – News – Prime time-News-Other stuff.

TV broadcaster as taxi service – Pay to be on my channel Low levels of programming innovation and lack of differentiation –

standing news readers. Mass to niche programming Pay TV programming raises viewer’s expectations Underlying logic: Need to be different. Themed channels

State of the digital transition

4. The digital transition – soon come From mass audiences (aimed at everybody) to clearly defined

target audiences to niche audiences Some part of the success of vernacular radio can be

replicated in TV New DTT signal carriers should offer all channels the

opportunity to get wider coverage, no longer just the Government channel. Will impact commercially on them

TV coverage largely mirrors electricity access coverage. Need to look at ways of addressing both issues

Delivering in TV to remote areas by satellite and fibre? (customs post gets broadband connection. Deliver in TV signal?)

Underlying logic: From clearly defined target audiences to niche audiences (300,000-500,000) eg Kenyan golf lovers

5. Online video everywhere LTE will be the accelerator of video use. Already 5+ LTE

implementations but at least a dozen by end 2013. One does it, everybody has to do it

Smile Communications in Tanzania & Uganda: Actual speed of 6 mbps. Major use shift.

Early indications of likely uses: Consumer video, video conferencing (Skype), high-end graphic and video transfers

Africa will play its part in solving the handset problem by generating demand

Underlying logic: Video available on all devices

Tablets (<1%)

$136-495

Smartphones (<1%-20%) >$100-400

Featurephones (10-20%) US$60-100

Basic phones (60-89%) $40-50

Now

Tablet (1-3%)

$100-300

Smartphones (3-20%) $70-

300

Featurephones (20-30%) 460-80

Basic phones (47-76%) $40-50

3-5 years time

Exc South Africa: 80% prediction

What Other People Watch African Film Emerging social media

Emerging Online Digtal Advertising Emerging Technology

Balancing Act Consultancy and research Reports: Analogue to digital migration in Africa-Strategic

choices and current developments (Out soon) 3nd edition of African Broadcast and Film Markets (Before end

of 2013)