delhi assembly elections - 2015
TRANSCRIPT
DelhiAssembly Elections 2015
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Contents
• Delhi Elections: What happened? …………………………..Page 3
• What does it mean nationally? …………………………..Page 4
• What the AAP has promised Page 5
• What do the results mean for Business? …………………Page 6
• The Aam Aadmi Party Page 7
• Arvind Kejriwal: The Chief Minister Page 8
• Other key leaders Page 9
• Contact - Edelman Public Affairs Page 10
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Election results
The results of the February 7th, 2015 elections tothe Delhi Assembly were announced on February10th. The Aam Aadmi Party recorded a near cleansweep, securing 67 of the 70 seats, spelling thefirst major setback for the BJP since the nationalparliamentary vote in May 2014.
The elections in the national capital of India wereheld after a hiatus of one year, during which ithad been under the President’s rule (directcontrol of the central government). ThePresident’s rule was imposed when ArvindKejriwal, the leader of the AAP resigned inFebruary 2014, after 49 days as the ChiefMinister. The state remained in suspendedanimation as all political parties were unable toform a stable government. While the decision forelections remained with the Election Commission,the AAP petitioned to the Supreme Court for freshpolls, which were finally announced in January2015. It is suggested that the centre’s strategy ofdelaying Delhi elections until after the elections inthe states of Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand,Jammu and Kashmir, did not work in their favour.While the BJP formed governments in thosestates and emerged the second largest party inJammu and Kashmir, following the victory inGeneral Elections, it was not able to maintain themomentum of these gains in Delhi.
During the hiatus, the AAP, whose image ofrabble-rousing had gained prominence, reworkedits strategy and narrative. Through a door-to-doorcampaign, it managed to project that the party
was willing to recalibrate its message to expressthe aspirations of the people. The perceptionscommunicated to the masses through the mediaseem to have worked in its favour. Kejriwal wasalso able to dilute the 'bhagoda‘ (runaway) chargethrough his gentler and focussed campaign. TheAAP leader apologised to Delhi’s voter for whatwas widely perceived as a political blunder. Andrefocussed on issues of water, electricity, pricerise and women's safety. Meanwhile, the BJP’scampaign was seen as negative focussed onhighlighting the opponent’s mistakes. For the BJP,the projection of Kiran Bedi as the CM candidatewas also seen as a vote of no-confidence in theBJP's state unit, which seems to have alienatedthe party workers. The land ordinance, whoseimplications the AAP quickly picked up on, alsoseems to have turned rural votes against the BJP.
One of the primary reasons for the resoundingvictory of AAP is the clear two party race betweenthe BJP and the AAP. While the BJP largelymaintained the vote share it has had since 1998, asignificant number who voted for parties like theCongress, the Bahujan Samaj Party, theSamajwadi party and the Left shifted to the AAP.The Congress vote - which amounted to 24 percent in the 2013 assembly elections also switchedheavily to the AAP. The BJP achieved a vote shareof 32.2 per cent only 3 per cent less than 2013.The consolidation of the anti-BJP vote is a strongsignal to the BJP that they need to deliver onexpectations to expand their voter base furtherreduce the impact of opposition movements.
Delhi Elections: What happened?
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Impact on Politics
The loss for BJP is being seen as a morale-booster for
regional parties like the Trinamool Congress, the Janata DalUnited, the Shiv Sena, etc. and are likely to become morevocal in opposition to preserve their positions. Given the
BJP’s vote share in most states, winning absolute majoritydepends on splitting the opposition vote. In Delhi, the vote
share shows that the votes of the other parties consolidatedagainst the BJP. Similarly, in Bihar, which goes for electionlater this year, all the major parties have aligned against the
BJP-led NDA. Now, with such an outcome in Delhi, which isbeing seen as a dissipation of the Modi-wave, the BJP’s
prospects in state elections later this year now stands lesssure than before.
The Aam Aadmi Party’s win is also being seen as a harbingerof a new opposition, which may bring to the political fore a
fresh agenda and a new way of political battling. While theanti-corruption movement was the precursor to the AAP,and Delhi is seen as conducive to AAP-like phenomena, it is
projected that these scenarios may become possible in otherstates as well. Some states may prove fertile ground for the
AAP, like Punjab, where it has won four seats in the LokSabha. The politics of identity, caste and religion have tendedto dominate elections in other states and AAP’s victory is
being seen an alternative that may find relevance soonerrather than later. The party and the state will be keenly
watched in the coming months to see whether the revival ofAAP in Delhi will lead to its rise as a truly National Party.
What does it mean nationally?
2015
NDA
SP
JD(U)
TMC
BJD
TRS
AIADMK
NPF
SDF
CPM
Won 2012
Won 2013
Won 2013
Won 2014
Lost 2013 Won 2014
UPA
UPA
UPA
Won 2014
Won 2014
Won 2014
AAP emerges as the single largest party
Impact on Policy
For the BJP, winning power in the states is critical to
strengthen its Rajya Sabha numbers where it only has 45members and has been thwarted in its effort to passreforms.
The Rajya Sabha, whose 250 members are elected by the
state and territorial legislatures, has equal footing in all areasof legislation with the Lok Sabha. Delhi’s result slows downtheir progress towards greater strength in the Upper House.
In such a situation the BJP will have to find ways to workacross the political divide and refocus on the fundamental
issues facing Indian voters, given their expectations andpromises of May 2014.
The loss in Delhi may also act as an impetus to the BJPgovernment to speed up reform to deliver growth. To
advance this reform agenda, the BJP will need to formconsensus both in the Rajya Sabha and across states. Thewinter session of the parliament was not good for the
government as it was blocked by the opposition in thepassage of Bills. The government had to move ordinances,
which the President criticised and said should only be takenunder “compelling circumstances”.
One of the criticisms that the AAP has faced is that of itspopulist promises. While it has been criticised, it may also
have contributed to its landslide victory. It is expected thatthe government at the centre may relook at some of itspolicies, to add some populist measures of its own. The
Budget may provide the platform for these announcementsmaking it an even more politically salient document.
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• Protecting the common man from
rising prices• Friendly policies for small-
businesses and local tradesman • Simplification of VAT and other
taxes
• Incentivising entrepreneurship by providing cheap capital and
startup incubators • Opposition to FDI in retail
What the AAP has promised
EconomicReforms
• Reduction in public transport cost
and making it more convenient • 500 new schools and 20 new
college• 900 new primary healthcare
centresInfrastructure
• Trader friendly policies
• Fair and transparent pricing policy
• Statehood for Delhi • Budgetary allocation for
healthcare to be increased
• Stringent rules for crimes against women
• Flexible and fair labour policy
Policy
• Better sewerage systems• Community toilets to be built
• Improvement in roads for non motorised transport
• Make Delhi a Wi-fi City
• Improvement of services in industrial areas
Urbanisation
• Delhi to be made a solar city
• Revival of the Yamuna by cutting sewage deposit in the river
• The ridge area to be saved through reduction in pollution
• Commitment to rain water harvesting
• Better waste managementEnvironment
• Better access to education
through loans and new schools/colleges
• Clean water supply in every home
• Better public healthcare
facilities• Regularisation of unauthorised
colonies
Accessibility
• Water mafia to be dealt with
• Simplification of processes and procedures in government
functioning• Passage of the Jan Lokpal Bill • Legislation of the Swaraj Bill Accountability
• Discoms to purchase power from economical
sources• CAG audit of Delhi power distribution
companies• Subsidies to be provided to Delhi Transco• Introduction of competitive distribution
• Leveraging renewable ad alternate sources of energy with incentives and subsidies to
promote solar energy
Power
• Technological incubators to be set up in
universities • Relook at polices with a focus on job
generation• Provide support to innovators and start
ups
• Promotion of skill development • Provision for low interest loans for
entrepreneurs
Jobs
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Approach to corporatesThe Aam Admi Party generally adopts a cautious approach toward industry and business and says
that “crony capitalism” is the main reason for high corruption in India. Over time, it has been
criticised for its anti-industry outlook. However, several leaders of the party, refute this charge
saying that the party is not doctrinaire about its economic policies, unlike the Left parties.
Approach to Public sector enterprisesThe party supports public sector reforms to make them more efficient and transparent. There
have been indications that the party would not be averse to subsidising certain sectors of the
economy such as education, health and infrastructure, thereby running the danger of crowding
out the private sector.
Approach to Small businesses and tradersThe party has indicated a willingness to lower VAT rates and simplify payment and licensing
procedures. However, experts have cautioned that decreasing VAT in order to improve
compliance would be a limited exercise and will further test Delhi’s finances.
Foreign InvestmentsWhile the party is yet to form a broad-based stance on opening-up various sectors to foreign
investment, it has indicated that it is against FDI in multi-brand retail.
AgricultureDelhi being a non-agricultural state, AAP has not formed its opinion on all aspects. However, it is
against field trial of GM crops in India.
Environmental SustainabilityA key policy is the party’s focus on environment. It wants the environmental costs of
development to be accounted for in the overall growth estimates.
Labour ReformsThe party is likely to initiate steps to implement welfare schemes for unorganised sector workers
in the city. It is likely to implement minimum wage and bring in social security for these workers.
The jobs for contractual labourers is also likely to be regularised.
Power sectorThe AAP has promised halving the electricity cost for consumers. These subsidies, it is being said,
will pose a challenge to the party given Delhi’s fiscal pressures. The party has said that it would
provide subsidy to Delhi Transco, a state owned transmission company. This, it hopes, will help
Delhi Transco upgrade its transmission capacity and therefore in reducing power outages in the
city. The AAP is also likely to pursue an audit of private discoms by the Comptroller & Auditor
General in order to ascertain the financial status of these utilities.
Challenges going forwardThe big challenge for AAP, given its national ambitions, is likely to be its way of working with big
business – power corporations, retail chains, etc. The AAP has projected its interest in rebuilding
industrial clusters for small industry within Delhi, but it is yet to talk about reforms to boost
large investments. As the party takes charge in the capital, the challenge it is likely to face will be
that of balancing its social objectives along with the need of boosting investment to create large
scale employment.
Nationally, the economic policies of the BJP government may bear a more socially conscious
outlook. The central government is likely to include in its decisions greater tax benefits and
subsidies to target segments, apart from creation of jobs. While the results may have short term
impact, the pro-economic agenda of the central government is unlikely to be affected.
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What do the results mean for Business?
The Aam Aadmi Party was formally launched on 26th
November 2012, a year after, thousands of Indians tookto the streets in support of an anti-corruption campaign
led by social activist Anna Hazare. One of the leaders ofthat movement was Arvind Kejriwal, a former tax officialand a campaigner for right to information. In course of
the Anna Hazare campaign, Kejriwal broke away on thequestion of whether the movement should enter active
politics. Kejriwal and his associates took the line ofjoining politics to clean politics and governance.
After a series of protests against multi-billion rupeegovernment corruption scandals, which attracted vast
media attention in 2011 and 2012, Kejriwal, launched thepro-left, anti-graft Aam Aadmi Party.
The Aam Aadmi Party has built its reputation aroundbeing anti-establishment and idealistic. According to its
top leader Yogendra Yadav, the party may be “socialistbut not silly”. The party is in favour of a solution-based,commonsensical approach to problems and seeks to
escape the trappings of the Left or the Right. The party’sglobal outlook draws from other countries’ experiences.
For example, some of its policies such as the free waterscheme for Delhi appear to have been inspired by asimilar one framed by former South African President
Thabo Mbeki. Yadav says the party has also learned frommovements in Brazil and the Middle East.
The Aam Aadmi Party
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The AAP’s first test came in the Delhi assembly elections
of December 2013. It made a stunning debut, seizing 28of Delhi's 70 assembly seats and later formed a
government with "outside support" from the Congressparty. A significant part of its agenda was to introducethe Jan Lokpal bill in Delhi. The bill would have created
an independent body with the power to investigatepoliticians and civil servants suspected of corruption.
When it became clear after the election that the othermajor parties would not support this bill, the AAPgovernment resigned. It had been in power for 49 days.
The party fielded 434 candidates across India in the 2014
general election, but failed to win a single seat fromDelhi. The party obtained 4 seats and 2% of all votescast.
Arvind Kejriwal is a mechanical engineering graduate from
the Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, after which heworked for Tata Steel. He left that job in 1992, having
previously taken leave of absence in order to study for theCivil Services Examination, and spent time in Kolkata, at theRamakrishna Mission in North-East India and at Nehru Yuva
Kendra. Kejriwal joined the Indian Revenue Service in 1995after qualifying the Civil Services Examination. He worked as
a Joint Commissioner in the Income Tax Department.
The IRS officer started Parivartan - an NGO working against
bribe culture- along with Manish Sisodia in 2000. Parivartanhas worked over last 8 years, using RTI, to target corruption
in delivery of public services, such as public distributionsystems and education. He was awarded the RomanMagsaysay award in 2006 for his contribution to the
enactment of the Right to Information (RTI) Act, 2005. Heworked with Public Cause Research Foundation (PCRF) and
Parivartan to strengthen RTI and bring about governmentreforms.
He set up a group called India against Corruption in 2011aimed at bringing about tough anti-corruption laws. He was
the backroom organiser of the anti-corruption campaign ledby Anna Hazare.
While Hazare was its recognised public face, Kejriwal was acore member of "Team Anna", working behind the scenes to
organise protests in Delhi that garnered vast mediaattention. Kejriwal emerged as Hazare’s top aide, rallyinghuge crowds, advising the veteran campaigner, recruiting
fellow protestors and participating in negotiations with thegovernment. Kejriwal launched his political party on 2nd
October 2012.
Arvind Kejriwal: The Chief Minister
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He contested the election in the 2013 Delhi Legislative
Assembly and took office as the Chief Minister of Delhi on28 December 2013. He resigned 49 days later, on 14
February 2014. Kejriwal also contested the Lok SabhaElections of 2014, fighting against BJP’s prime ministerialcandidate Narendra Modi from Varanasi constituency.
Kejriwal is married to Sunita, who is also an IRS officer and
his batchmate from National Academy of Administration inMussoorie and the National Academy of Direct Taxes inNagpur. The couple have a daughter and a son.
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Yogendra Yadav
Yogendra Yadav is a member of the National Executive of the Aam Aadmi Party and a well-known social scientist, psephologist and political analyst. In 2011, he took part in the
anti-corruption protests and later joined the Aam Aadmi Party. He is an academician with interest in democratic theory, election studies, survey research, political theory,
modern Indian political thought and Indian socialism. He is a Senior Fellow at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), Delhi since 2004. He was also a member
of Sonia Gandhi’s National Advisory Council in 2010. Yadav has been involved in the revival of survey-based studies of Indian elections, the renewal of the National Election
Study series, and the creation of the Lokniti network of scholars. He writes regularly in Hindi and English for newspapers, and is a political commentator on television. Yadav has
written school textbooks and has served on several policies advisory bodies. Yadav is seen as a key policy thinker and strategist for AAP.
Manish Sisodia
Manish Sisodia was the Minister of Education, Higher education, Public Works Department, Urban development, Local bodies, Land & building, Revenue portfolios, in the
Government of Delhi prior to the party’s resignation in 2014. Manish Sisodia was a social activist and journalist. Later he became active to get the RTI act passed and played a
key role in the Jan Lokpal movement. He was often seen as a close colleague of Kejriwal during the movement. He is also known for his organisational skills and coordinated
many RTI campaigns in urban and rural areas of the country. As a journalist Sisodia has worked in Zee news and All India Radio for a long time. Along with Arvind Kejriwal he
founded the Public Cause Research Foundation in 2006 that worked in the area of governance.Sisodia was also keenly involved as a volunteer in Parivartan that supports the
sustainable socio-economic development of deprived masses.
Other key leaders
Kumar Vishwas
Kumar Vishwas is a member of AAP’s National Executive. According to Kumar Vishwas’s website he is a new age poet and motivator. He left his Engineering degree in between
to pursue “what his heart felt to be good at- 'Hindi Poetry'.” As a poet he performed in Netaji Subhash Institute of Technology, University of Delhi, etc. the videos of which
became popular contributing to his rise as a leader. He got acquainted with Arvind Kejriwal in 2006, and started participating in his protests. Having once fancied himself as a
writer for Hindi films, Vishwas's poetry has now changed from romantic subjects to patriotic ones that are set to music and sung at AAP events. Vishwas has a large social
media following with 1.6 million likes on his Facebook page and 1, 38, 000 followers on Twitter. He also appears as a representative of AAP in TV debates and press
conferences.
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