beyond the downtown eastsideneighbourhoodchange.ca/documents/2016/05/gurstein... · langley...

BeyondtheDowntownEastside:

Dr.PennyGurstein,PhD,DirectorandProfessorNathanEdelson,AdjunctProfessorJeremyStone,PhDCandidateKarlaKloepper,MAPCandidateRileyIwamoto,MAPCandidate

ARegionalPerspecGveonAffordability,DisplacementandSocialJusGce

Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership, University of Toronto www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca

May 2016 NCRP Research Symposium Presentation of 30 Contact: Penny Gurstein, [email protected]

ProjectOverview

1.  Background–BeyondtheDowntownEastside2.  ResearchQuesGons3.  Methodology4.  FindingsToDate–4CaseStudies5.  EmergingThemes6.  NextSteps7.  Discussion



BeyondtheDowntownEastside

Vancouver

North Vancouver

Map:IncidenceofLICO-BT,1991



ResearchQues9ons

R1)RegionalRestructuringTrends:WherearethepoorintheVancouvermetropolitanregion?

R2)PoliciesandPrograms:WhatplanningapproachesarebeingusedtomiGgate(orexacerbate)thespaGaldislocaGonoflow-andmoderate-incomehouseholdsinthesecommuniGes?

R3)PoliciesandPrograms:HowcanwesupportthedevelopmentofaregionalconsensustoprotectexisGng(ordevelopreplacement)low-incomehousinginneighbourhoodsfacingredevelopmentpressures?



Methodology

1.  Literaturereview2.  QuanGtaGveAnalysis3.  QualitaGveAnalysis–  Mediaanalysis–  Expertandstakeholderinterviews

4.  RegionalSupportNetwork– Workshopsandregionallearningevents



Quan9ta9veAnalysis:ChallengesandConsidera9ons

•  Difficultycomparingpre-2006censusand2011NaGonalHouseholdSurvey

•  Limiteddataavailableatscalesmallerthancensustract

•  Challengeofneighbourhood-basedplanningacrosscensustracts



Delta

Surrey

Richmond

Vancouver

Coquitlam

BurnabyMaple Ridge

Langley Township

Pitt Meadows

North Vancouver DistrictWest Vancouver

Anmore

Port Moody

Port Coquitlam

New West

Belcarra

North Vancouver

Langley City

0 5 102.5 KmTransit Rail Lines

NoData

<10%

10-15%

15-20%

20-30%

30-40%

40-50%

>50%

Incidence of LICO - 1991 - Metro Vancouver



Delta

Surrey

Richmond

Vancouver

Coquitlam

BurnabyMaple Ridge

Langley Township

Pitt Meadows


Anmore

Port Moody

Port Coquitlam

New West

Belcarra

North Vancouver

Langley City


NoData

0-500

501-1000

1001-2000

2001-3000

3001-4000

4001-5000

Individuals Below LICO Before-Tax 1991 - Metro Vancouver



Delta

Surrey

Richmond

Vancouver

Coquitlam

BurnabyMaple Ridge

Langley Township

Pitt Meadows


Anmore

Port Moody

Port Coquitlam

New West

Belcarra

North Vancouver

Langley City


NoData

<10%

10-15%

15-20%

20-30%

30-40%

40-50%

>50%

Incidence of LICO Before Tax - 2006 - Metro Vancouver



Delta

Surrey

Richmond

Vancouver

Coquitlam

BurnabyMaple Ridge

Langley Township

Pitt Meadows


Anmore

Port Moody

Port Coquitlam

New West

Belcarra

North Vancouver

Langley City


NoData

0-500

501-1000

1001-2000

2001-3000

3001-4000

4001-5000

Individuals Below LICO Before-Tax 2006 - Metro Vancouver



Delta

Surrey

Richmond

Vancouver

Coquitlam

BurnabyMaple Ridge

Langley Township

Pitt Meadows


Anmore

Port Moody

Port Coquitlam

New West

Belcarra

North Vancouver

Langley City


NoData

> -25%

-15% to -25%

-10% to -15%

-5% to -10%

0% to -5%

0% to 5%

5% to 10%

10% to 15%

Change in LICO Incidence 1991-2006 (1991 Census Tracts) - Metro Vancouver



Delta

Surrey

Richmond

Vancouver

Coquitlam

BurnabyMaple Ridge

Langley Township

Pitt Meadows


Anmore

Port Moody

Port Coquitlam

New West

Belcarra

North Vancouver

Langley City


NoData

-500 or more

-100 to -499

0 to -99

1 to 100

101 to 500

501 to 1000

1001 to2500

2501 to 5000

more than 5000

Change in Private Household Population Under LICO 1991-2006 (1991 Census Tracts) - Metro Vancouver



Quan9ta9veAnalysis:KeyTake-Aways

•  %ofpeopleunderLICOhasincreased(1991:17.4%;2006:20.8%)

•  DistribuGonofpeopleunderLICOisspreadingoutoftheurbancore



Qualita9veAnalysis

•  ComplementexisGngquanGtaGvedataatcensustractlevel

•  MediaanalysisofarGclesinlocalnewssources

•  10expertinterviewswithpoliGcians,plannerswithmunicipalandregionalgovernments,andrepresentaGvesfromadvocacyandcivilsocietygroups



CaseStudy:Burnaby

VancouverCMAPopula9on,2011:2,313,328BurnabyPopula9on:223,218

2011

BurnabyPopula9onunderLICO1991:28,735(18.5%)BurnabyPopula9onunderLICO2006:51,038(25.5%)



Burnaby

Po

New West

CaseStudy:Burnaby

Wherearethepoor:

• Metrotown:MURBhousinginMaywoodneighbourhood

•  Edmonds:secondarysuites,HighgateVillage

•  Burquitlam,LougheedTownCentre

Image:IncidenceofLICO-BT,2006



CaseStudy:Burnaby

•  Whoarethepoor:–  Inmedia:families,lone-parentfamilies,refugees–  Inpolicydialogues:newcomerfamilies,refugees–  Inthecensus:

•  PoliGcsandPolicy:–  Burnabyreceiving16%ofBCrefugeeseilements(2013)–  NotablepoliGcalshijfromstrongcivicprideinnon-markethousing(1970s-1990s)tonoinvestmentinnon-markethousing(1990s-present)

–  Zoningamendmentstoallowforrapidredevelopmentofmedium-densityrentalhousingstock(2011)

–  UniquelevelofcoordinaGonandpartnershipamongstserviceprovidersduetocityinvolvement



CaseStudy:Surrey

VancouverCMAPopula9on,2011:2,313,328SurreyPopula9on:468,251

2011

SurreyPopula9onUnderLICO,1991:37,920(15.7%)SurreyPopula9onUnderLICO,2006:70,450(18%)



Surrey

New West

CaseStudy:Surrey

Wherearethepoor:•  SurreyCentral,GuilfordTownCentre

• Whalley,Newton




CaseStudy:Surrey

•  Whoarethepoor:–  Inmedia:homelesslow-incomesingles,families,lone-parentfamilies,childrenlivinginpoverty

–  Inpolicydialogues:Female-headedhouseholds,workingpoor,low-incomeAboriginalpeople

–  Comparedtocensus:

•  PoliGcsandPolicy:–  Surreyisunderservedbyserviceproviders,transit–  Veryhighgrowthmakesserviceprovisiondifficult–laginlevelsofgovernment,funding

–  Stateddifficultyinleveraginglandlijalongrapidtransitcorridorasmarkethasnot‘caughtup’yet–createsproblemsinfundingameniGes



CaseStudy:Richmond

VancouverCMAPopula9on,2011:2,313,328RichmondPopula9on:190,473

2011

RichmondPopula9onUnderLICO,1991:18,980(15.2%)RichmondPopula9onUnderLICO,2006:45,208(26.1%)



Richmond

CaseStudy:Richmond

Wherearethepoor:

•  Hardtosay–challengewithincomereporGnginhigher-incomeareaswithhighproporGonofnewCanadians(eg.TerraNova,Thompson)

•  homelessencampmentalongFraserRivernorthofBridgeport




CaseStudy:Richmond

•  Whoarethepoor:–  Inpolicydialogues:howtounpackincomeinformaGonversusrealneed?

–  Inmedia:–  Comparedtothecensus:

•  PoliGcsandPolicies–  Veryprogressiveandaggressivehousingpolicies–  InconsistenciesofincomestaGsGcsmakedata-drivenplanningchallenging–Councilcanrefuteideathatthereare“poor”inRichmond

–  FastgrowthhasmadeithardforCitytoleverageasmuchvalueaspossiblefromredevelopments



CaseStudy:Tri-Ci9es

VancouverCMAPopula9on,2011:2,313,328Tri-Ci9esPopula9on,2011:215,773

2011

Tri-Ci9esPopula9onUnderLICO,1991:Tri-Ci9esPopula9onUnderLICO,2006:



CaseStudy:Tri-Ci9es

Wherearethepoor:

•  Burquitlam:MURBhousing

•  AusGnHeights

•  HomelessCamps:woodedareasalongtheFraserRiver

Coquitlam

P

Anmore

Port Moody

Port Coquitlam

carra




CaseStudy:Tri-Ci9es

•  Whoarethepoor:–  Inmedia:low-incomepeopleatriskduetorisingrents;peoplerequiringspecificcaresuchasseniorsandpeoplewithdisabiliGes

–  Inpolicydialogues:homelesslow-incomesingles,low-incomefamilies,low-incomerenters

–  Comparedtothecensus:•  PoliGcsandPolicies

–  Tri-cityapproachtohousingandhomelessness,butvariableresponsesfromthethreemunicipaliGes

–  QuesGonofcapacity:somemunicipaliGeshavelimitedsocialplanningfuncGons

–  PendingimpactoftheEvergreenlinedevelopment;acknowledgementthatlocaGonschoseninpartbasedonlandvalue



EmergingThemes

•  NumberandDistribuGonoflow-incomepeople–  Movementoutoftheurbancore–  OverallregionalincreaseinpeopleunderLICO

•  DataLimitaGons–  MoreofafocusontheneighborhoodlevelisneededandmustincludequanGtaGvedatapluslocalknowledge

•  Vancouver’sexperience–  HighprofilepoliGcsanddevelopmentparadigmsdominateourregionalimage,butishighlycontext-specific

–  NeedmorecomparaGveresearchacrosstheregion



EmergingThemes

•  Dichotomyoftransitplanningandpro-poor/socialjusGceconversaGons–  EmergingimplicaGons:rapidtransitfundedbydevelopmentarepurnglow-incomecommuniGesatrisk

–  Currently,nopoliGcalconsensusonhowtomanagethis–  Needforaclearpolicydiscussion

•  RegionalGovernance–  CurrentregionalplanningframeworkwasdevelopedinadifferentpoliGcalandeconomiccontext

–  Now:needforamoreharmonized,elasGcapproachtofundingallocaGonandserviceprovisionfromseniorlevelsofgovernment



NextSteps

•  Spring2016–dataanalysisandmapping•  Latespring2016–workshopsandregionallearningevents

•  Summer2016–SubmissionoffinalstudytoNeighbourhoodChangeResearchPartnership



Discussion



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