Between Determinism and VoluntarismDeterminant Factors of Small State Foreign Policy

Máté Szalai14.10.2015.

Determinism Voluntarism

• Limitations of foreign policy• The set of possibilities of small states• The determinative factors• The hierarchy between the determinative factors

The Determinant Factors of Foreign Policy1. International political and economic system2. Geopolitics3. The process of state-making4. Internal and external institutions, structures and norms5. Identity

Realist determinism: geopolitics and the international system

Realist determinism: geopolitics and the international system

Officially neutral Rethorically neutral

Austria (1955-1994) Panama (1989-) Cambodia (1955-1970; 1993-)

Costa Rica (1949-) San Marino (1862-) Mexico (1939-)Finland (1956-1994) Sweden (1918-1994) Hungary ( only

during 1956)Ireland (1937-1972) Switzerland (1815-)Laos (1962-1964; 1975-)Liechtenstein (1868-)Malta (1980-2004)

Liberal determinism: institutions and state-making State-making processes define the basic norms and institutions of a

state Internal institutions define the way of policy-making, decision-making,

articulation, etc. External institutions limit and widen the set of possibilities of small

states

Voluntarism: Identity

Identity defines the set of possibilities Self-perception and political views shapes the foreign policy of small

states What kind of identity? How can we asses to investigate the notion of

identity? Role of learning

Dan Reiter: the role of learning in the foreign policy decision-making in small states

Facing unexpected situations politicians and diplomats– tend to rely on personal, institutional and socio-psychological experiences through the process of learning

Rawl Abdelal – Yoshiko M. Herrera – Alastair Iain Johnston – Rose McDemott (2006): Identity as a Variable. Perspectives on Politics, vol. 4. no. 4., pp. 695-711

IDENTITY 1 IDENTITY 2 IDENTITY 3

CONTENT Constitutive norms

Definemembership and ind. behav.

Social Purposes Define collective goals

Relational comparisons

Compare the group with others

Cognitive models

Interpret material conditions

CONTESTATION The extent of consensus

1. We are smaller

2. Smallness means weakness

3. Sole aim: survival

4. We have to stick together

„The identity of smallness”

Case study: Slovakia and Hungary

We will examine the foreign policy of Slovakia and Hungary from all three perspectives

But first…

Case study: can we call Hungary and Slovakia small? What region should we choose?

Broader neighborhood the 28 members of the European Union; the candidate and potential candidate countries of the EU; the participants of the Eastern Partnership program; other members of the European Economic Community; and the Russian Federation.

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

0

100,000,000,000

200,000,000,000

300,000,000,000

400,000,000,000

500,000,000,000

600,000,000,000

700,000,000,000

The GDP of the Slovak Republic and Hungary in their "Broader Neighborhood"

(1993-2012)

Av. Of the Broader Neighborhood Slovak RepublicHungary Av. Of the EU-28

Year

Valu

e of

the

GDP

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

18,000,000

20,000,000

18,095,68418,097,831

5,414,0959,897,247

Population in Slovakia and Hungary in their broader neighborhood(2013)

Av. of the Broader Neighborhood EU-averageSlovak Republic Hungary

Km2

0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000

Land area of the Slovak Republic and Hungary in their broader neighborhood (2013)

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

Miliatary Expenditures of Slovakia and Hungary in their Broader Neighborhood(1993-2012)

Av. of the Broader Neighborhood EU-AverageSlovak Republic Hungary

Year

Milit

ary

Expe

nditu

res a

s % o

f the

GDP

Case study: Hungary and Slovakia

1. What are the main characteristics of Slovakia and Hungary from the different points of view?

2. According to the theory, what should the Hungarian and Slovakian foreign policy look like?1. Aims2. Fluctuation of foreign policy after elections3. EU-policy4. Priority regions

1. Attributes of Slovakia and Hungary

Realist Determinism

Liberal Determinism

Voluntarism

International political and economic

system, geopolitics

External and internal institutions

Identity

• PCW-system• A region of small

states between great powers

• Energy-dependency on Russia

• Evolving democracies

• Functionable IOs

• Lack of historical experiences

• Lack of small state experiences

Basic data about Hungarian and Slovakian foreign policy since 1990

Hungary SlovakiaSovereign independence 1990.05.23. 1993.01.01.

General aims of foreign policy

Fluctuation of foreign policy after elections

EU-policyPriority regions

Anomalies

• Euro-Atlantic integration,• Neighborhood policy,• „Nation-policy”

• Euro-Atlantic integration• Neighborhood policy

High Low

Changing Supporting deeper integration• EU, USA, Russia• Countries with Hungarian

minorities• Western Balkan

• EU,USA, Russia• Western-Balkans

• Global policy• High fluctuation after

elections• More confrontative

Meciar-government (1993-1997)