Better Decisions in a Complex World

Business Analytics the way we do it

In the current climate, it isparticularly difficult fororganisations to make the rightdecisions, select the best options orgain a competitive advantage. Our team of Business Analyticsprofessionals are dedicated tohelping clients make better informeddecisions by applying modelling,quantitative analysis, objectivity andrigour to minimise risk anduncertainty.

Analytical solutions will help youdeliver value if your company isundergoing change, needs to justifya strategic decision or is seeking toimprove its current operations.

Our TeamIn the UK our Business Analyticsteam has 35 experts highlyexperienced in a wide range ofanalytical and modelling skills.The Business Analytics team has adatabase of over 400 clientcredentials and models whichdemonstrate our successes across allindustry sectors.

In challenging economicconditions it is vital toensure that decisions aresoundly based

1 Better Decisions in a Complex World

Our Track RecordEach of our services has a widerange of examples where theBusiness Analytics team hasdelivered value to its clients.

Analytics and Modelling

� We developed a visual dynamicmodel to help optimise BusinessPerformance for the Departmentof Work and Pensions. The modelsimulates the flow of contactsthrough a new benefits process,allowing ‘what-if?’ testing ofscenarios to ensure that theimplementation of this majorchange took place smoothly andefficiently.

� We carried out a Risk analysis andmitigation study for a major UKwater company as part of theirfive-yearly regulatory submission.

As part of this, we developed andcarried out a detailed programmeof sensitivity analysis on the assetperformance models which wereused to determine the optimuminvestment plan. This identifiedthe level of certainty associatedwith each area of investment andgave significant additionalconfidence in the £2.5bn CapitalInvestment plan.

Value Management

� We used a Value Based DecisionMaking approach to advise acentral government ministryfinancially and commerciallythroughout the procurementprocess for contracts worth over£3 billion. We supported thedesign of the contractual paymentmechanism, design of standard

pre-defined financial models, thefinancial evaluation methodology,and delivered the final financialevaluation and due diligence. Ouranalysis identified savings of£500m over the life of thecontracts.

� We supported the Office forCriminal Justice Reform in thearea of Business Case andBenefits Realisation bydeveloping a detailed andconsistent system of portfoliomanagement to monitor theprogress of projects, benefitsrealisation and capacity forchange. This ensured that the largenumber of cross-organisationinitiatives delivered maximumbenefits to the many partnersinvolved.

Our Services

Our main services are focused around the business related issues that our clients are facing:

Business Analytics

Analytics and Modelling Value Management

� Using analytical based modelling to inform and optimise: workload planning and allocation, resource scheduling, pay and reward strategy, staff retention, workforce evolution and succession planning

� Evaluating the operational impact of changes to processes or operating model design on employee workload and performance

Workforce Analytics

� Intelligent analysis of operational data to understand and monitor customer behaviour

� Segmentation of the customer base to identify valuable customers, customers likely to churn, poor credit risks and fraud

� Using insight gained from analytics to develop customer retention/acquisition strategy, pricing strategy and improve debt management

Customer Analytics

� Understanding the relationship between level of risk exposure and the impact on profitability, service to customers, staff and infrastructure

� Developing models to evaluate and inform mitigation strategies for operational, asset and investment risk

Risk Analytics

� Using data visualisation tools to analyse the drivers of cost and value providing a better understanding of where inefficiencies lie

� Using intelligent benchmarking to make realistic performance comparisons

� Evaluating impact of business strategy /service delivery options on future business performance to provide confidence the change is robust

Business Performance Analytics

� Analysing the drivers and underlying trends in demand for products and services

� Building Predictive models that enable organisation to effectively manage their supply chain, workforce and finances

� Using analytics to optimise supply chain strategy - warehouse design, logistics, merchandising replenishment, demand planning

Supply Chain Analytics

� Advising on how new sources of data and insight can be used to drive improved performance

� Using “war game simulations” to inform and train organisations of the impact of the digital revolution

Digital Analytics

� Private Sector case for change

� Public Sector “5-case” model� Business Case appraisal

Business Case

� Using our SAFER methodology for benefits structuring & analysis; benefits logic and benefits tracking

� Development of economic models to support value-based pricing

Benefits Realisation

� Commercial modelling and scenario analysis to support options appraisal

� New business venture analysis and modelling

Value Based Decision Making

� Strategy and definition

� Investment appraisal� Prioritisation of projects

� Assurance, monitoring and reporting

Portfolio Management

Better Decisions in a Complex World 2

Our Approach

Our typical four-stage approach to resolving business issues:

The core of our approach is theability to abstract a model of thereal-life problem that is intuitive touse, yet sufficiently realistic tosupport robust decision making.These models are used to provideinsight, and to quantify the risks andbenefits associated with solutions tocomplex business problems.When developing models to resolvebusiness issues we typically use asystematic four-stage approach, asshown in the diagram above.Capgemini's collaborative approach to problem solving is designed to

communicate complex issues in asimple and straightforward manner.By using visual interactive models,stakeholders are able to experiencethe impact of their assumptions andbuy into an agreed solution. A keypart of our collaborative approach toproblem solving is the use ofconceptual models. These are livingdiagrams that encapsulate what isbeing modelled and the inter-relationships between the differentcomponents. The conceptual modelshave many uses throughout anassignment:

� Explain the scope of the modeland the nature of the relationshipsto be examined

� Confirm understanding of thesystem to be modelled with allstakeholders

� Highlight varying levels ofconfidence in the data available(or other variables) by colourcoding

� Are used throughout projectlifecycle from problem definitionto model building through toanalysis.

� Investigate data quality and completeness

� Analyse data to identify patterns, trends and inter-relationships

� Identify previously unknown facts and information

� Assess impact of alternative business scenarios

� Use sensitivity analysis to understand robustness of solution

� Communicate complex findings in a user-friendly way

� Confirm system to be modelled is agreed with all stakeholders

� Clearly define scope, processes and data uncertainty

� Test/ validate assumptions

� Develop and agree detailed model

� Confirm joint understanding of the problem with stakeholders

� Agree key assumptions

� Propose modelling approach and techniques

� Identify data requirements

BusinessIssue

OptimisedSolutions

DataAnalysis PresentationValidation

Problem Structuring

Example Conceptual Model

Design of UV Plant

Power Applied to Lamps

Flow

Time Since Cleaning

Age of lamps

Risk of Failureto Meet Regulated

Dose

Opex

Capex

Nominal Intensityof UV

Achievable Applied &

Receivable Dose

1

2

5

6 7

11

10

12

2125

8

13 14

Risk of Failureto Meet End-of-Pipe

Standard

20

23

Actual Performance

of Lamps

Failure of Lamps/Ballast

1922

24

1615

9

18Total Duty To

Date of Lamps

Weather & Upstream

Processes / Operation

Internal Design of Banks (out of scope)

Transmissivity

ActualIntensity

No. BanksNo. Channels

4

3

29

30

27

Control philosophy

17

Maintenancephilosophy

Limited

Adequate

Based on theoretical or estimated data

Data Availability/Relationship Confidence:

16 = Relationship or driver

26

Our CapabilitiesOn engagements we draw upon theexperience of our consultants inusing their specialist capabilityexpertise to provide insight anddeliver sound advice to clients, usingtechniques such as:

Visual Process SimulationThe use of animated software todepict business activities in a visualmodel, allowing alternative scenariosand configurations to be tested andcompared.

System DynamicsA business modelling approachwhich adopts a systemic approach toproblem solving. Rather thanfocusing on linear interactions, itdeals effectively with environmentsand issues which evolve andinterlink in highly complex waysover time.

Monte Carlo SimulationUsing models based on repeatedrandom sampling to generate sets ofalternative scenarios, providinginsight into the range and likelihoodof different outcomes.

Optimisation and SchedulingOptimisation uses mathematicaltechniques to determine the bestsolution to a problem for a given setof constraints. It is often linked withScheduling – the optimisedallocation of resources (people,equipment) to meet an objective.Data Mining & SegmentationThe use of analytical tools to carryout predictive modelling andsegmentation/ clustering,uncovering facts and informationwhich would otherwise remainhidden.

ForecastingThe estimation of the most likelyfuture values of a variable usingavailable data, such as historical dataor expert opinion.

Statistical AnalysisUsing techniques such as fitting ofdistributions to uncoverrelationships, quantify probabilitiesand quantify risk as part ofsensitivity analysis.

2011 Capgemini. All rights reserved. Rightshore® is a registered trademark belonging to Capgemini.Capgemini Consulting is the strategy and transformation consulting brand of Capgemini Group

With 112,000 people in 40 countries,Capgemini is one of the world's foremostproviders of consulting, technology andoutsourcing services. The Group reported2010 global revenues of EUR 8.7 billionTogether with its clients, Capgeminicreates and delivers business andtechnology solutions that fit their needsand drive the results they want.A deeply multicultural organisation,Capgemini has developed its own way ofworking, the Collaborative BusinessExperienceTM, and draws onRightshore®, its worldwide deliverymodel.

Rightshore® is a trademark belonging toCapgemini.

Capgemini Consulting is the GlobalStrategy and Transformation Consultingbrand of the Capgemini Group,specialising in advising and supportingorganisations in transforming theirbusiness, from the development ofinnovative strategy through to execution,with a consistent focus on sustainableresults. Capgemini Consulting proposesto leading companies and governments afresh approach which uses innovativemethods, technology and the talents ofover 3,600 consultants worldwide.

For more information:www.capgemini-consulting.com

About Capgemini

For further information please contact:

Nigel LewisTel : 0870 904 4721email : nigel.b.lewis@capgemini.com

business.analytics.global@capgemini.com

www.capgemini-consulting.com