berk study 1 - anacortes, wa
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City of Anacortes: Economic Study Phase I
August 2006
City of Anacortes: Economic Study Phase I
Introduction
This economic and fiscal profile of the City of Anacortes is designed to serve as the analytic foundation of a broader fiscal/economic strategy development process. The ultimate outcome of this process will be an economic development and land use strategy that will assist in establishing a course for the community’s long-term fiscal sustainability.
An important first step in developing a comprehensive fiscal and land use strategy is to assess the nature and extent of the sustainability challenge. This entails developing a long-term forecast of revenues and costs the City will face if it pursues the path it is on today. Once the extent of the fiscal challenge is understood, the City can develop options for a fiscal strategy that will enable the City to forestall the anticipated revenue gap.
Another important component of the fiscal/economic strategy is to ensure that the City aligns its land use policies and investments to foster a strong revenue base, while simultaneously ensuring that development is in keeping with the vision of City residents. Developing optimal land use and investment policies requires the City to understand the market for, and fiscal implications associated with, different kinds of development. With this context in hand, the City can then weigh the fiscal implications against other, non-fiscal considerations that contribute to a development’s attractiveness.
This economic and fiscal profile summarizes the results of the status quo forecast of City revenues and costs and the baseline market research findings. The report is organized into the following sections:
• Overall Summary of Findings
• Long-term Fiscal Outlook
• Demographic and Employment Profile
• Analysis of Taxable Retail Sales Base
• Anacortes Landbase Analysis
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Summary of Findings
Anacortes seeks to promote patterns of land use and development that are consistent with the City’s vision. A the key component of this vision is the development of a downtown that (1) provides opportunities for commerce, (2) provides services and amenities that will benefit residents and attract visitors, and (3) provides a common center of focus for the Anacortes community. In addition, the City also seeks to promote land use patterns that will provide the Anacortes with a strong tax base, to ensure that, over the long term, the City has the financial means to provide services that residents desire.
Cities in Washington State are currently faced with multiple fiscal and planning challenges. For example, the pursuit of optimal land use policies require the City to understand the market for, and fiscal implications associated with, different kinds of development. Armed with this information the City can go on to weigh fiscal implications against other considerations that contribute to a development’s attractiveness. Ultimately, cities seek to ensure that the City’s land-use policies encourage development that achieves the City’s vision, while ensuring that that vision also reflects residents’ desires regarding levels of service and tax burdens.
In reality, optimizing land-use policies and fiscal sustainability go hand-in-hand. A city’s fiscal strategy includes a series of policy considerations, including:
• Land use policy; • Tax and fee structure;
• Levels of City services; • Mix of services provided;
• Service delivery structure; • Capital investment strategy;
• Programs to attract tax dollars from those outside the City; and
• Programs to reduce “leakage” of local retail tax dollars.
Long-term Fiscal Outlook
Given current challenges in Washington State’s tax structure, most Washington cities face a future where expenses have the potential to outstrip revenues in the medium- to long-term. The combination of (1) increasing costs of doing business, (2) long-term erosion of the real (inflation-adjusted) value of the cities’ property tax levy, and (3) loss of revenue sources such as Motor Vehicle Excise Tax distributions has a compounding effect that prevents the use of “traditional” ways of balancing budgets. Washington cities will find it increasingly difficult to make ends meet with each passing year.
The first step to achieving fiscal sustainability is to have a realistic understanding of where the city stands. For this analysis, expense and revenue projections for the City of Anacortes were compared in a municipal financial plan format to model the potential fiscal gap that the City might expect to see in coming years if current trends were to continue. The analysis concentrated on the core revenues and core operating expenses that these revenues support.
Considering the effects of future population and employment growth and the impacts of I-747, the core revenues are forecasted to grow at an average annual rate of 3.8% over the next twenty years. At the same time, due to the increasing costs of doing city business, the expenditures are projected to grow at 4.8% annually. Total revenue growth between 2005 and 2025 is estimated at 109% while expenses are estimated to increase by 155% over the same period.
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Summary of Findings
As expense growth outpaces revenue growth (and assuming no changes in policy), Anacortes would likely post its first operating deficit in approximately seven years (2012). When the City’s general fund balance is factored into the analysis, the first unfunded deficit is estimated to appear around 2019. It is important to reiterate that this analysis assumes continuation of current trends and does not account for changes in policy or any actions that may come out of the current economic planning efforts.
Another factor that was not considered in the base analysis was the potential effect of forthcoming changes in sourcing rules as a result of sales tax streamlining. In general, these sourcing rule changes will redirect sales tax revenue on sales of items that are delivered to the purchaser. Currently, in most cases the sales tax accrues to the location of the shipper. Under the new rules the tax will accrue to the point of delivery. For example , in the case of a major appliance purchased in Burlington but delivered to a home in Anacortes, the local portion of the tax would shift from Burlington to Anacortes under the new rules.
The Department of Revenue has estimated that the net impact of these rule changes for the City of Anacortes is a net gain of approximately $44,000 per year, suggesting that on balance the shift to the point of delivery will be beneficial to the City’s tax base. In comparison, Burlington, which is home to a number of businesses that deliver products is expected to experience an estimated net loss of $1.1 million per year.
The principal factor driving the differential in revenue and expense growth rates in the base case analysis is the impact of Initiative 747’s 1% cap on the City’s regular property tax levy. By limiting the growth of a key component of the tax base to less than the rate of general inflation, the tax burden gradually shifts to other components of the tax base such as the retail sales tax and utility taxes.
This conclusion is not surprising, given the structural changes in local government finance resulting from voter-approved initiatives. However, the fact that the first unfunded deficit is not expected for more than 10 years gives the City time to enact policies and pursue strategies to improve the fiscal outlook. Most cities do not have the luxury of time, leaving many to pursue tax increases such as levy-lid lifts or changes in utility tax rates as the means to address impending shortfalls.
Market and Economic Analysis
Given the long-term baseline fiscal outlook, the City’s ability to continue to provide services at current levels without increasing taxes will depend largely on growth in the City’s tax base, particularly the taxable retail sales base. The analysis of the economic and market conditions suggest that there are reasons to be optimistic that local economic development opportunities will lead to further tax base diversification and improvement in the overall fiscal balance of the City. The following are the key findings from the analysis of market and economic conditions.
Strengths
• Diverse and stable employment base. The City enjoys a relatively stable and, for a smaller community, diverse
employment base. There is a strong manufacturing base including marine and petroleum products whose
markets extend far beyond the City or region.
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Summary of Findings
• Strong taxable retail sales base. From a fiscal perspective the City enjoys higher than average taxable retail
sales per capita, suggesting some importation of outside dollars to support local services. In general there
is a solid base of locally-supportive uses that are augmented by three key component that contribute
beyond the scale for a City the size of Anacortes. These are auto dealers, manufacturing activities, and
boat dealers which all contribute more than typical shares on a per capita basis. The expected changes in
sourcing for sales tax (sales tax streamlining) are unlikely to alter this finding, though there may be some
impact on the manufacturing sectors sales tax contribution.
• Demand for housing. The City has experienced strong demand for housing, which has shown up in a
significant increase in the number of property sales in recent years and a healthy rate of growth in
housing units and population. This suggests that there are important quality of life factors and community
attributes that are attracting people to the area.
• Demographics. The demographics of the community is generally an asset, with high rates of owner-
occupied housing and average incomes that are higher than other peer-communities, such as Port
Townsend and Port Angeles and a well educated population base. In fact, the proportion of residents
with a college degree or higher increased from 15.1% in 1990 to 27.8% in 2000. The share for Skagit
County overall in 2000 was 20.8%.
• Attractiveness of area and location within tourism industry. The City enjoys many natural advantages in
terms of its tourism potential including: the natural beauty of the area, the small-town charm, and the
marine-related activities including fishing, boat building and recreational boating. Adding these features
to the fact that Anacortes is the gateway to the San Juan Islands offers a solid base from which to
consider opportunities to attract visitors.
• Marine-related industries. A core element of the City’s economic base the diversity of its marine-related
industries, which include fishing, fish processing, boat sales, boat building and repair, boating supplies
and hardware and marinas catering to both recreational and commercial vessels.
Potential Areas of Opportunity
• Tourism and visitor spending. The analysis of taxable retail sales by industry sector suggests that the City
of Anacortes is not getting a significant boost from visitor spending. For example total spending on hotel/
motel and restaurants on a per capita basis is roughly in line with overall statewide per capita averages,
offering an indication that tourism is not a significant feature of the local economy. Compare this finding
with Port Townsend which gets more than twice the statewide average sales per capita for both lodging
and restaurants. Given the strengths listed above this would appear to be an area with some potential for
development.
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Summary of Findings
• Eating and drinking places. The City currently supports an eating and drinking sector roughly in line with
its population base. Given an expected population increase of approximately 5,000 over the next 10-20
years (a 33% increase) it is reasonable to expect that the additional disposable income will translate
to greater capacity in this sector. Any potential to increase tourism spending will also support additional
restaurant development.
• Smaller scale niche retail shops. In keeping with the theme of more housing development and the
possibility of increasing tourist spending, the market for additional niche retailers should also present
opportunities.
• Redevelopment opportunities along SR 20 and within downtown area. The landbase analysis suggests that
there are opportunities for greater investment along SR20 and within the downtown area which could
lead to redevelopment pressures.
Underserved markets with significant obstacles
• Larger-scale retail development, in particular apparel. While the City of Anacortes is clearly an underserved in
some retail categories, particularly apparel and general merchandise sales, the competition from regional
retail centers (Burlington in particular) suggest that it is unlikely that these areas will grow significantly in
the future.
Potential Elements of a Fiscally-Sustainable Economic Strategy
On the basis of the market and economic analysis, the following might be considered as potential key focus areas in any subsequent work toward a comprehensive land use and fiscal strategy.
1. Continued revitalization of downtown. A key to achieving a number of the City’s objectives will likely revolve around the continued revitalization of the downtown and waterfront areas. Many cities in the state are focusing their economic development strategies on the development, enhancement and protection of the “town center” as a viable core. There is an opportunity to focus the potential growth in housing, retail, and restaurant in the downtown area increasing the potential to draw additional visitors.
2. Tourism and visitor spending. The analysis suggests that the City is not getting as much as it could from its tourism potential. One of the best ways to improve this situation is to increase the number of rooms available for overnight guests. As it stands now, the City’s lodging base is in line with the population base. A community with a greater focus on tourism would be expected to have a much higher lodging to population ratio. The biggest impact from additional lodging is the spill over to restaurant and retail.
3. Maintain strength and diversity in employment base. A real strength of the community is the diversity in the employment base. Strategies should be considered that would support existing industries with
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Summary of Findings
growth needs. Maintaining a strong and diversified local economy will support the housing market, improve tax diversity and allow the City to withstand cyclical fluctuations within each industry with a minimum of disruption in revenues.
Leveraging Strength in the Residential Market
As the City discusses its options for moving forward, it is worth considering the potential role of housing in any land use strategy designed to achieve long-term fiscal sustainability. There is a perception that residential growth and housing development lead to increased fiscal challenges, which would seem to be at odds with the goal of improved fiscal balance in the City. The reality is somewhat more complicated than the conventional wisdom. In fact, housing can be an integral component of a long-term fiscally-balanced economic strategy.
As discussed previously, one of the key strengths that the City can build on is the continuing demand for new housing in the area. In recent years, the City of Anacortes has seen very strong and sustained demand for residential development. Given this strength of demand and the potential focus areas identified above, a central question that the City faces is:
What role might residential development play in helping the City of Anacortes achieve its broader economic and
fiscal goals?
The question of whether the demand for housing in Anacortes can be leveraged toward achieving some of the City’s other land use and economic development goals comes down to the following issues:
• How residential development may fit into Anacortes’ broader goals for its commercial center; and
• What fiscal implications could the City expect to see if it was to allow such residential development.
Overall, our assessment suggests that development of residential uses in the City and in particular in or near downtown Anacortes could help the City achieve its goals for the downtown area. If executed properly, development of housing would likely improve the overall attractiveness of downtown to residents and visitors alike, thereby improving Anacortes’ overall competitive market position. From a fiscal perspective, it also appears that development of housing in or adjacent to downtown would generate clear benefits for the city.
Role of Citywide Residential Growth in Commercial Development
For the City of Anacortes as a whole, continued residential development is likely to play an important role in the city realizing its vision for downtown. Currently, Anacortes’ retailers, restaurants, and service providers are supported by a combination of:
(1) the city’s existing 15,000, plus residents,
(2) other full- and part-time households who live on the islands and in the surrounding community on the mainland, and
(3) visitors—both those who come to Anacortes as a destination and those who pass through the city on their way to points beyond.
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Given the inherent attractiveness of Anacortes, and given the volume of travelers who pass through the city in the span of a year, Anacortes has a clear opportunity to capture additional visitor spending. Perhaps the best chance Anacortes has to capitalize on this opportunity is for the city to leverage the current expansion of its residential base, to develop a downtown with the critical mass, the amenities, and the level of street activity that will make the city more attractive to visitors.
Capitalizing on Residential Growth
Each new resident in Anacortes translates to new demand for restaurants, retail, and consumer services. Specifically, over the long run, each new resident in Anacortes will support well over 10 square feet of new commercial space for retail, restaurants, and services.
Given (1) the existing pace of residential growth in Anacortes, and (2) a recognition that Anacortes does not have the capacity (or the desire) to expand its residential base beyond a certain limit, the city should bear in mind two key goals regarding residential growth:
• To make sure that Anacortes captures the newly introduced demand for retail, restaurants, and
services as it emerges (as opposed to seeing the new demand captured by businesses located
outside of the city); and
• To make sure that it leverages the new commercial activity in a way that makes downtown Anacortes
an attractive and compelling experience for residents and visitors.
As decisionmakers in Anacortes know, and as most urban designers are quick to point out, creating a compelling experience means creating a center of commerce that (1) facilitates access, (2) promotes activity on the city’s streets and sidewalks, and (3) creates an environment that allows people who use those streets and sidewalks to feel comfortable and engaged.
Are Residential Uses Compatible with “Basic” Industries?
When thinking about commercial activity, it is sometimes useful to distinguish between (1) commercial activity that principally serves local markets and (2) basic industries, which sell their products in broader markets and, therefore, are less reliant on local demand conditions.
In this context, local commerce would include any firms that provide goods or services to people and business who are located in or around Anacortes (or to people who visit the area). Basic industries, on the other hand, produce goods or services that are sold into regional, national, or even international markets. Basic industries would include traditional marine-industrial activities like boat-building, and it could also include information industries like software development, information design, or financial services companies that happens to be located in Anacortes but serve clients across the region, the state, or the country.
As a city that (1) counts among its residents a large number of retired households, and (2) is frequented by a large number of visitors, Anacortes could probably exist as a nice and prosperous city even if it possessed few basic industries. It is our understanding, however, that the City of Anacortes has always valued its traditional
Summary of Findings
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Summary of Findings
marine-industial roots and, looking to the future, the city would like to maintain its identity as a real place, where people make real things, be they tangible—like boats—or somewhat less tangible—like software. Given this goal, the natural question is:
Does residential development in or adjacent to downtown conflict with the goal of keeping and attracting basic industries?
In regard to the aforementioned information industries, it would seem that the answer to this question is clearly: No. If anything, an active downtown that offers a range of amenities, in combination with all of the other assets that Anacortes brings to bear, could only help to make Anacortes more attractive to small, information-based businesses whose owners have the option of living and working wherever they want.
In regard to more traditional industrial uses, experience elsewhere suggests that it is possible for residential and industrial uses to be compatible, but challenges do exist.
When one looks at West Coast cities, it is not difficult to find examples where industrial areas have proven to be attractive for housing, offices, and consumer-oriented commerce. Districts like Georgetown, in Seattle, the Pearl District, in Portland, and the South of Market area in San Francisco are all examples of areas where housing and industrial uses have been able to coexist in relative harmony. Notwithstanding the occasional story about noise conflicts, it is clear that many industrial districts became attractive to residents and other businesses precisely because of the feeling of authenticity that traditional industrial uses are able to offer.
In fact, if one looks at the districts noted above, the challenges to industry do not revolve around compatibility. Rather, the challenges are indirect, revolving around increasing land values. As the area becomes increasingly attractive for residential, retail, and office uses (in part because of their industrial character), increased land values tend to push industrial users out of the immediate area. It is worth noting, however, that marine-oriented industrial uses have tended to be less affected by increasing land values. One reason for this is that, while the land these industries occupy may be very valuable, (unlike non-marine industries) few inexpensive alternatives exist, so the businesses in question are more likely to remain in place.
What are the fiscal implications of a strategy that relies on residential development as a key driver?
In 2006, Anacortes expects to spend roughly $13 million for provision of “core” governmental services. With an estimated city population of roughly 16,000, this translates into core expenditures per resident of about $800. In reality, however, when a city thinks about the fiscal impact of adding 100 new residents, average costs of service are not particularly helpful. In this situation, the key questions are:
1. What new revenues will those residents bring to the city?
2. What new costs of service will those residents introduce?
New Revenues. On the revenue side of the equation, new households bring with them the full slate of new revenues. They will pay property taxes and utility taxes, and they will pay sales taxes on all of their purchases (many of which will be made locally). In addition, the new population allows the city to collect additional
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revenues that are distributed at the state or county level based on the city population.
For example, each resident of a new condo complex in Anacortes (selling at $400,000 per unit) would generate $480 in city property taxes, perhaps $100 in new utility taxes and another $100 in new sales taxes. In addition, by adding another resident, Anacortes will expect to receive an additional $50 in distributed revenues (from criminal justice sales tax distributions and state-shared revenues). Combined, these four revenue sources alone would represent $730 in new core revenues for the city. Multiplied by 100 new residents, this equals $73,000 in new revenues to the city.
New Costs. In contrast with new revenues, on the cost side of the equation, 100 new residents in downtown Anacortes would probably generate only modest increases in the cost of providing city services.
It is certainly true that, all else being equal, more populous cities do cost more to serve. However, it is also true that a residential development in downtown Anacortes would have little impact on many city operations. City Hall would continue to do what it does. Public Works and Parks would probably see only the most modest differences in what they do. And the Police Department and the Medic/Fire Department would probably each see a handful of new calls for service in a given year, but since the new housing would be located very close to the City’s Police Station and the main Fire Station, the departments would be in a good position to respond to these calls.
In economic terms, these are the result of economies of scale—the notion that, with a number of fixed costs already established, the incremental cost of providing services to 100 more residents can be significantly less than the average cost of providing services to all residents.
While it is outside the scope of this analysis to provide a precise estimate of the potential cost impacts to extend services to the hypothetical new residents. Based on experience with other cities, it is likely that the costs of extending core city services to one new resident in downtown Anacortes would be less than half of the city’s $800 average cost of service—generating incremental costs of perhaps $400 or less, for each new resident.
Excess Revenues. If the above discussions of incremental revenues and incremental costs did turn out to be accurate—with new core costs of $400 or less each year for each new resident, and new core revenues of more than $700—then on an annual basis, 100 new residents would represent a clear fiscal windfall to the City.
Moreover, this discussion of direct fiscal impacts does not even take into account the potential benefits that downtown residential development could have on Anacortes’ overall market position. If such development did help Anacortes achieve a more compelling downtown, and if that success resulted in the City capturing a greater share of expenditures by locals and/or visitors, then the indirect fiscal benefits of the new residential development could far exceed the direct benefits outlined above.
Summary of Findings
City of Anacortes: Economic Study Phase I
Long-Term Fiscal Outlook
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Long-Term Fiscal Outlook
An important first step in developing a comprehensive fiscal and land use strategy, the long-term fiscal outlook forecasts revenues and costs that the City of Anacortes will face if it pursues the fiscal path it is on today, i.e. relying on the same revenue sources and spending on the same types and categories of expenditures. This analysis paints a picture of the City’s fiscal future if current trends were to continue.
The analysis demonstrates that Anacortes, along with virtually all other cities in the state, is heading in the direction of future revenue shortfalls. Key assumptions that drive the projected future fiscal gap include population growth estimates and impacts of fiscal challenges that the City has already began to encounter, including Initiative 747 effects and impacts of rising costs of doing City business. With understanding of these future challenges, Anacortes can develop options for a fiscal strategy that will enable the City to forestall the anticipated revenue gap.
Population Growth
Population estimate is a key variable in the long-term fiscal outlook projections; population growth rate serves as one of the drivers for revenue and cost estimates. Currently, the Washington State Office of Financial Management puts the City’s 2005 population at 15,700 residents.
According to the City of Anacortes’ most recent Comprehensive Plan, the City has limited growth capacity and will reach complete build-out when the population reaches 19,300 people. At present, one of the options being discussed by the City is whether or not to allow some residential development in certain commercial marine zones. If the City gives the green light for this change, it is estimated that an additional 1,000 resident capacity will be allowed, bringing the population growth cap to 20,300. In the first option, where the residential development is not allowed in the certain commercial marine zones, the build-out of 19,300 would be achieved by 2016 (assuming the current high rate of growth continues). In the second option, the build-out of 20,300 would happen by 2019, again assuming the continuance of the current high rate of growth.
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Estimated: Residential NOT allowed in marine zones
Estimated: Residential allowed in marine zones
Historical Population Projected Population
Between 1968 and 2005, the annual average population growth rate was 1.9%.
(Source: Berk & Associates)
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Long-Term Fiscal Outlook
Fiscal Challenges
Anacortes, like many cities in Washington State, faces future fiscal challenges. Most fiscal challenges stem from the recent series of statewide initiatives that have eroded most cities’ financial support from taxes and fees. From a city’s perspective, the most damaging blows resulted from statewide passage of three initiatives: I-695 (ending collection of the State’s motor vehicle excise tax [MVET]); I-747 (limiting the growth of property tax levies on a city’s existing property to less than the rate of inflation); and I-776 (ending the collection of vehicle license fees). Combined, these initiatives have resulted in the immediate reduction of millions of dollars of city revenues, and have set up the long-run erosion of cities’ property tax bases.
Property tax revenues represent the single largest revenue source for the City; not counting the revenue dedicated to repayment of bonds, approximately $3,370,000 in property tax revenues was collected in 2005. However, with passage of I-747, the revenue a city is allowed to collect from property taxes cannot grow by more than 1% per year (excluding the effects of new construction), effectively eroding property tax revenues.
As evident from the chart, despite several factors outside the I-747 limit (voter-approved levies and taxes on new construction and building improvements), the measure’s effect has been to drive down tax rates. If property values rise by more than 1%, the only way to keep tax collections below that cap is to tax at a lower rate. Similarly, the higher the value of new construction for the given year, the lower the levy rate, and vice versa. With the value of new construction projected to be 2% of total assessed value for the City, the result is the decreasing levy rate for Anacortes.
In this “status quo” scenario, the City’s levy rate could drop from $1.99 per $1,000 in assessed value in 2005 to roughly $0.74 per $1,000 in 2025. Considering this eroding levy rate, the City’s property tax growth will likely hover around 3% annually.
The one method available to the city for increasing property tax revenues at higher rates is to commit to seeking “levy lid lifts” from City voters. If voters were to approve a series of levy lid lifts that allowed the City to maintain its current levy rate over the coming years, then property tax revenues from “built” areas of the City could increase at a faster rate (driven by overall increases in property values).
Another fiscal challenge is increasing costs of doing City business: throughout the region, personnel costs (the principal cost of providing city services) are growing at a rate that exceeds inflation. These costs are driven by (1) big annual increases in the costs of health care and (2) wage increases that exceed the rate of general inflation (driven by long-term increases in worker productivity in the private sector).
Anacortes: General Levy Rate for Property Taxes(actual through 2005, projected through 2025)
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INITIATIVE 747. Approved by voters in 2001, I-747 limits increases in regular property tax collections to 1% a year. This limit factor applies to the total amount a taxing district may collect only through the regular property tax. Other sources of property tax revenue remain unaffected, such as new construction, improvements to property, and increases in
the value of state-assessed property.
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($10)
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Projected Core Operating Revenues and Expenses(under 1% Property Tax Revenue Limit Scenario)
Bottom Line: Potential Future Fiscal Deficit
For most cities, the first step to achieving fiscal sustainability is to have a realistic understanding of where the city stands. In this long range fiscal outlook, expense and revenue projections were compared in a municipal financial plan format to model the fiscal gap that the City could expect to see in coming years if it were to try to maintain the status quo. The analysis concentrated on the core revenues and core operating expenses that these revenues support.
“Core operating revenues” include all General Fund revenues typically reported in municipal budgets. The revenues from the additional bond debt levy for the new library were not considered in the analysis, as they are dedicated to debt repayment under the terms of the voter-approved levy. Core operating revenues are generated from several different sources, but the majority come from property tax, utility taxes, and retail sales tax. “Core operating costs” consist of all of the City’s operating expenditures currently supported by the general fund and the property tax. Operating revenue and cost projections are based on an assessment of Anacortes’ existing operating and funding structure, historical trends, the City’s current level-of-service standards, and estimates of historical and forecast level of service demand.
Considering the effects of future population growth and the impacts of I-747, the core revenues are forecasted to grow at an average annual rate of 3.8% over the next twenty years. At the same time, due to the increasing costs of doing city business, the expenditures are projected to grow at 4.8% annually. By the same token, the total revenue growth between 2005 and 2025 is estimated at 109%; however, for the same time period the expenses will increase by 155%. As expense growth outpaces revenue growth (and assuming no changes in policy), Anacortes would likely post its first negative deficit in approximately seven years (2012). When the City’s general fund balance is considered, the first unfunded deficit will appear around 2019.
The City’s future fiscal policies should focus on maintaining and building fund balances, maintaining a healthy and diverse mix of revenues to support city services, and keeping costs in line. Anacortes will need to continue to take action to ensure this balance stays in place.
Long-Term Fiscal Outlook
City of Anacortes: Economic Study Phase I
Anacortes Demographic
and Employment Profile
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Demographics: Population
Overview
Some years have passed since the 2000 Census was conducted, yet the data still provide valuable demographic information. By chronicling how Anacortes has changed in the past, it is possible to suggest how Anacortes might change in the future. The following tables and charts present demographic characteristics for the City of Anacortes between the 1990 and 2000 Censuses. Several localities are included for comparison. The cities of Mount Vernon, Oak Harbor, Port Angeles, and Port Townsend were selected because they share similarities in population size, age distribution, employment, or industry characteristics. Skagit County is also included for a comparison of county-wide trends. During the 1990s, Anacortes experienced moderate population growth. Generally, the city got younger, more educated and more affluent.
Source: US Census (1990 and 2000, SF3) and Berk & Associates, 2005
Total Population
79,555
11,451
17,647 17,176 17,710
7,001
102,979
14,707
26,297
19,905 18,472
8,325
2.6% 2.5%
4.1%
1.5%
0.4%
1.7%
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Skagit County Anacortes Mount Vernon Oak Harbor Port Angeles Port Townsend
Population
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
Growth Rate
1990 Census Population 2000 Census Population Annual Growth Rate (constant)
Anacortes has seen a slight decrease in the proportion of persons 65 and older as a share of total population due mostly to population increases in the younger age groups. This follows a similar trend in Skagit County. Oak Harbor, Port Angeles and Port Townsend all experienced growth in the relative share of the 65 and older population. Notably, Oak Harbor’s proportion is low due to higher levels of younger persons resulting from the presence of military personnel and their families.
Total Population
Anacortes grew by approximately 3,000 persons between the 1990 and 2000 Censuses. Assuming a constant growth rate, the city grew at roughly the same rate as Skagit County, but slower than Mount Vernon. The State Office of Financial Management estimates Anacortes’ 2004 population at 15,470.
Population 65 and Older
15.7%
21.9%
14.2%
7.2%
18.4%
19.6%
14.6%
20.5%
12.5%
8.8%
18.7%
20.8%
22.6%
1.6%
6.2%
-12.1%
-6.5%-7.2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Skagit County Anacortes Mount Vernon Oak Harbor Port Angeles Port Townsend
Percent of Total Population
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Percent Change
1990 Census Population 2000 Census Population 1990-2000 Proportion Change
Source: US Census (1990 and 2000, SF3) and Berk & Associates, 2005
Percent of Total Population
City of Anacortes: Economic Study Phase I
August 2006
16
Demographics: Housing
Anacortes added approximately 1,500 housing units between 1990 and 2000 at an annual rate of 2.7%; similar to its population growth rate of 2.5%. Mount Vernon added the most housing units while Port Angeles added the least of the comparison cities.
Source: US Census (1990 and 2000, SF3) and Berk & Associates, 2005
33,580
4,992
7,1676,173
7,833
3,280
42,681
6,547
9,7237,736
8,729
4,248
2.4%
2.7%
3.1%
2.3%
1.1%
2.6%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
Skagit County Anacortes Mount Vernon Oak Harbor Port Angeles Port Townsend
Housing Units
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
Growth Rate
1990 Census Population 2000 Census Population Annual Growth Rate (constant)
Source: US Census (1990 and 2000, SF3) and Berk & Associates, 2005
63.6% 63.7%
54.6%
38.5%
56.5%
62.1%63.5% 64.6%
54.7%
41.2%
54.4%
60.1%
1.3%
0.2%
-3.3%-3.7%
-0.2%
7.0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Skagit County Anacortes Mount Vernon Oak Harbor Port Angeles Port Townsend
Percent of Total
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Percent Change
1990 Census Population 2000 Census Population 1990-2000 Proportion Change
The proportion of housing units that the owner of the unit occupied the unit remained relatively unchanged for Anacortes between 1990 and 2000. At 65%, Anacortes has the highest level of owner-occupied housing for all the comparison cities. Port Angeles and Port Townsend experienced modest declines.
Total Housing Units
Owner Occupied Housing Units
City of Anacortes: Economic Study Phase I
August 2006
17
Anacortes had relatively no change in the average household size from 1990 to 2000 – holding steady at 2.41 persons per household. Mount Vernon had the largest ratio of 2.84 persons per household, a 12% increase over 1990. Oak Harbor, Port Angeles, and Port Townsend saw their average household sizes decrease during the same time period.
Source: US Census (1990 and 2000, SF3) and Berk & Associates, 2005
(Inflation Adjusted in 1999 Dollars)
$38,854
$36,305
$34,336
$42,381 $41,930
$37,999$36,641
$38,142
$34,285$33,165
$34,536$33,130
1.06%
0.76%
0.46%
0.65%
0.07%
-0.01%
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
Skagit County Anacortes Mount Vernon Oak Harbor Port Angeles Port Townsend
Income
-0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
Growth Rate
1990 Census Population 2000 Census Population Annual Growth Rate (constant)
Adjusting for inflation, the 1999 median household income for Anacortes was the highest for all the comparison cities. In real dollars, household income grew at an annual rate of 0.76%, slightly lower than the rate for the county but higher than all the comparison cities. Port Angeles experienced a slight decline in median household income.
Average Household Size1990 Census Population 2000 Census Population Percent Change
Skagit County 2.59 2.65 2.25%Anacortes 2.42 2.41 -0.32%Mount Vernon 2.54 2.84 11.94%Oak Harbor 2.84 2.70 -4.76%Port Angeles 2.41 2.29 -4.94%Port Townsend 2.30 2.13 -7.47%Source: US Census (1990 and 2000, SF3) and Berk & Associates, 2005
Median Household Income
Average Household Size
Demographics: Housing
City of Anacortes: Economic Study Phase I
August 2006
18
Anacortes experienced a dramatic increase in the proportion of college educated persons; a trend seen in all the comparison cities. In 2000, nearly 28% of persons over the age of 25 had a college degree or higher - an 84% increase from 1990.
Demographics: Education
Source: US Census (1990 and 2000, SF3) and Berk & Associates, 2005
(Persons 25 and Older)
16.3%15.1%
17.6% 17.4%
14.4%
27.7%
20.8%
27.8%
18.6%
22.3%
18.9%
33.1%
27.6%
83.7%
5.6%
28.3%31.3%
19.5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Skagit County Anacortes Mount Vernon Oak Harbor Port Angeles Port Townsend
Percent of Total Population
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Percent Change
1990 Census Population 2000 Census Population 1990-2000 Proportion Change
Source: US Census (1990 and 2000, SF3) and Berk & Associates, 2005
(Persons 25 and Older)
19.0% 18.6% 18.2%
12.4%
20.4%
12.4%
16.0%
10.7%
21.2%
9.6%
14.9%
8.3%
16.3%
-33.2%
-27.1%
-42.4%
-15.4%
-22.9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Skagit County Anacortes Mount Vernon Oak Harbor Port Angeles Port Townsend
Percent of Total Population
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
Percent Change
1990 Census Population 2000 Census Population 1990-2000 Proportion Change
In tandem with the rise in the share of higher educated persons, Anacortes also saw a dramatic decrease in the proportion of persons without a high school degree. In 2000, 1 in 10 persons over the age of 25 did not have at least a high school or equivalent education. However, this trend was not shared by all comparison cities. Mount Vernon showed a substantial increase in this regard.
Education Attainment: College and Higher
Education Attainment: Less than High School
City of Anacortes: Economic Study Phase I
August 2006
19
The proportion of persons living in the same house for the previous five years increased 24% from 41% to 51% of the total population for Anacortes. The increase in tenure suggests more resident stability for existing and new Anacortes households during this time period. This trend was seen in all comparison cities.
Demographics: Housing Tenure
Source: US Census (1990 and 2000, SF3) and Berk & Associates, 2005
Population Living in Same House for Previous 5 Years
44.9%
40.6%
37.2%
17.6%
42.0%43.1%
50.2% 50.6%
39.9%
31.5%
52.0%
48.3%
11.9%
24.4%
7.2%
24.0%
12.1%
78.8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Skagit County Anacortes Mount Vernon Oak Harbor Port Angeles Port Townsend
Percent of Total Population
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Percent Change
1990 Census Population 2000 Census Population 1990-2000 Proportion Change
Population Living In Same House for Previous Five Years
City of Anacortes: Economic Study Phase I 20
August 2006
Employment
Total Employment in Anacortes Area
To evaluate the economic composition of the Anacortes area, employment statistics from Washington State Employment Security Department were collected and evaluated. The data included monthly covered employment totals at the 6-digit NAICS level for the City of Anacortes, the balance of Fidalgo Island plus Guemes, Sinclair and Cypress Islands.
Total employment will be marginally understated since the ESD covered employment figures do not include sole propertorships or business owners, though this deficiency is more than offset by the value of the sector detail. The chart below shows that total employment has fluctuated between 8,500 and 9,500 jobs with most of the variability appearing to be seasonal in nature.
Total Monthly Covered Employment for Anacortes, Fidalgo, and Sourrounding Islands
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05
Em
plo
yees
City of Anacortes: Economic Study Phase I 21
August 2006
Employment: Top Ten Sectors
Top Ten 3-Digit NAICS Categories for Jobs (Accounting for 57% of Total Jobs)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05
Em
plo
yees
Petroleum & Coal Products Manufacturing
Food Services & Drinking Places
Educational Services
Amusement, Gambling, & Recreation Industries
Food Manufacturing
Transportation Equipment Manufacturing
Executive, Legislative, & Other General Government Support
Hospitals
Specialty Trade Contractors
Nursing & Residential Care Facilities
Top Ten Employment Categories
The top ten NAICS categories in terms of Anacortes employment represent 57% of total employment. Between 2003 and 2005, most of these categories have seen little change aside from seasonal fluctuations. Jobs in Transportation Equipment Manufacturing and Food Services & Drinking Places, however, have increased substantially. Also, jobs in Petroleum and Coal Manufacturing have decreased, although none of those jobs are contained within the city limits of Anacortes. The reason behind this significant drop in employment is likely related to the completion of some major facility improvements and not any substantive change in operations.
City of Anacortes: Economic Study Phase I 22
August 2006
Employment: Top Ten Sectors
The following tables focus on the changes in employment within the top ten NAICS categories in terms of Anacortes employment. The percentage increase or decrease beyond the average level of employment in 2003 is shown in blue. In addition, for each of these key employment sectors the share of jobs that are located within the city limits is shown and the average wages are compared with the statewide average.
% of Jobs in City of Anacortes: 0%Average Wage in 2004 (Anacortes area): $88,079
Average Wage in 2004 (WA State): $84,469
% of Jobs in City of Anacortes: 87%Average Wage in 2004 (Anacortes area): $11,983
Average Wage in 2004 (WA State): $14,030
% of Jobs in City of Anacortes: 100%Average Wage in 2004 (Anacortes area): $31,119
Average Wage in 2004 (WA State): $34,046
% of Jobs in City of Anacortes: 37%Average Wage in 2004 (Anacortes area): $26,326
Average Wage in 2004 (WA State): $19,590
% of Jobs in City of Anacortes: 93%Average Wage in 2004 (Anacortes area): $25,508
Average Wage in 2004 (WA State): $34,553
% of Jobs in City of Anacortes: 84%Average Wage in 2004 (Anacortes area): $37,700
Average Wage in 2004 (WA State): $71,172
% of Jobs in City of Anacortes: 53%Average Wage in 2004 (Anacortes area): $40,454
Average Wage in 2004 (WA State): $45,429
% of Jobs in City of Anacortes: 100%Average Wage in 2004 (Anacortes area): $38,377
Average Wage in 2004 (WA State): $47,167
% of Jobs in City of Anacortes: 58%Average Wage in 2004 (Anacortes area): $30,616
Average Wage in 2004 (WA State): $37,661
% of Jobs in City of Anacortes: 100%Average Wage in 2004 (Anacortes area): $21,806
Average Wage in 2004 (WA State): $23,523
Jan-
03
Apr-
03
Jul-
03
Oct-
03
Jan-
04
Apr-
04
Jul-
04
Oct-
04
Jan-
05
Apr-
05
Jul-
05
Petroleum & Coal Products Manufacturing
-100%-50%
0%50%
100%
Food Services & Drinking Places
-100%-50%
0%50%
100%
Educational Services
-100%-50%
0%50%
100%
Amusement, Gambling, & Recreation Industries
-100%-50%
0%50%
100%
Food Manufacturing
-100%-50%
0%50%
100%
Transportation Equipment Manufacturing
-100%-50%
0%50%
100%
Executive, Legislative, & Other General Gov't Support
-100%-50%
0%50%
100%
Hospitals
-100%-50%
0%50%
100%
Specialty Trade Contractors
-100%-50%
0%50%
100%
Nursing & Residential Care Facilities
-100%-50%
0%50%
100%
City of Anacortes: Economic Study Phase I 23
August 2006
Employment: Other Sectors of Interest
Other employment categories, while smaller, have seen large-scale percentage changes in employment between 2003 and 2005. Jobs in Health & Personal Care Stores, Postal Service, and Nonstore Retailers all saw sharp increases followed by plateauing. Jobs for Merchant Wholesalers (Durable Goods), while seasonal, also increased substantially over the years. Employment in Justice, Public Order, & Safety Activities has fluctuated, but all told has decreased rather sharply.
Other Employment Movers
Employment by 3-Digit NAICS for Anacortes, Fidalgo, and Sourrounding Islands,NAICS Codes with Large Percent Changes (Positive or Negative) from Sept. 2003 to Sept. 2005
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05
Em
plo
yees
Health & Personal Care Stores
Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods
Justice, Public Order, & Safety Activities
Postal Service
Nonstore Retailers
City of Anacortes: Economic Study Phase I 24
August 2006
Employment: Key Sectors
Three industry clusters make up a full fifth of Anacortes’ total employment:
1. Marine and Maritime
2. Fishing and Fish Processing
3. Restaurant
Marine and Maritime employment has fluctuated somewhat but has increased overall between 2003 and 2005, due in
large part to increases in Ship Building & Repairing jobs.
Fishing and Fish Processing was mostly flat between 2003 and 2005, although seasonal fluctuations do exist. Months that follow low-employment months for finfish fishing often see dramatic decreases in employment for fresh & frozen seafood processing.
Marine and Maritime Employees for Anacortes, Fidalgo, and Surrounding Islands
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05
Em
plo
yees
Marinas
Ship Building & Repairing
Boat Building
Restaurant Employees for Anacortes, Fidalgo, and Surrounding Islands
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05
Em
plo
yees
Drinking Places (Alcoholic Beverages)
Snack & Nonalcoholic Beverage Bars
Limited-Service Restaurants
Full-Service Restaurants
Restaurant jobs fluctuate quite a bit during different seasons, but there was a noticeable trend upwards for these jobs between 2003 and 2005. The segments seeing the greatest rate of growth were drinking places and snack bars.
Employment in Industry Clusters
Fishing and Fish Processing Employees for Anacortes, Fidalgo, and Surrounding Islands
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05
Em
plo
yees
Finfish Fishing
Seafood Canning
Fresh & Frozen Seafood Processing
City of Anacortes: Economic Study Phase I
Taxable Retail Sales Analysis
City of Anacortes: Economic Study Phase I 26
August 2006
Analysis of Taxable Retail Sales Base
The biggest component of Anacortes’ TRS base in 2004 is the Retail category, making up more than half of total taxable retail sales. Within the retail category, the following are the key components:
o Auto Dealers make up 56% of the Retail Category.
o Another 33% of the Retail Category is made up of sales from Restaurants, Groceries, or Miscellaneous
sources.
Contracting (15% of the total) and Services (10% of total), are other important contributors.
Total Taxable Retail Sales Base
TRS by SIC Category, 2004
$172,218,547
$46,318,402
$32,345,832
$18,762,205 $18,275,794 $17,841,198
$3,907,718 $3,107,781
$0
$20,000,000
$40,000,000
$60,000,000
$80,000,000
$100,000,000
$120,000,000
$140,000,000
$160,000,000
$180,000,000
$200,000,000
Retail Contracting Services Transportation Manufacturing Wholesaling Other FIRES
Retail TRS Breakdown by 2-Digit SIC Category, 2004
$96,957,948
$21,275,583 $19,694,784$15,732,763
$8,749,882 $8,556,200
$833,803 $417,584
$0
$20,000,000
$40,000,000
$60,000,000
$80,000,000
$100,000,000
$120,000,000
Auto Dealers Restaurants Misc. Retail Grocery Building Materials Furniture Apparel General Merch.
While it is important to understand where the overall TRS contributions are coming from, when looking to compare one community to another or when trying to understand the character of a local economy the TRS per capita is a better metric. By accounting for cities’ populations, it is possible to determine if Anacortes’ sales base for each TRS category is in line with those of neighboring communities.
City of Anacortes: Economic Study Phase I 27
August 2006
Total TRS per Capita in 2004$ (Average 2002-2004)
$0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 $14,000 $16,000 $18,000 $20,000
Anacortes
Port Angeles
Port Townsend
Oak Harbor
State
Analysis of Taxable Retail Sales Base
Because of the tax structure in Washington State, taxable retail sales (TRS) is a critical component of fiscal sustainability for cities. Cities whose economic position provide higher TRS per capita will generally have more resources to meet their community’s service needs. In addition, because sales taxes apply on a wide range of goods and services, TRS analysis provides valuable insight into the economic composition of a community.
Total Taxable Retail Sales per Capita
Taxable Retail Sales per Capita 2004, Nearby Jurisdictions
$-
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
$100,000
Anacortes Bellingham Burlington FridayHarbor
La Conner MountVernon
Oak Harbor Sedro-Woolley
San JuanCounty
SkagitCounty
Compared with the statewide average, the City’s TRS per capita is almost 30% higher and is similar to or greater than some other “peer” communities. The peer communities were selected because of the waterfront location, relative isolation from larger urban areas, community size and mix of services, tourism and manufacturing industries.
Total TRS per capita for the City of Anacortes compares favorably with Skagit County overall, though it its less than some nearby jurisdictions such as Bellingham, Burlington, La Conner and Friday Harbor.
City of Anacortes: Economic Study Phase I 28
August 2006
Analysis of Taxable Retail Sales Base
While manufacturing sector provides 5.2% of total TRS, this proportion is greater than is typically found in other cities. The chart presents the breakdown of this category into its sector components. Wood product manufacturing and boat building and repairs are the majority contributors.
Manufacturing (5.2%)
The Citiy’s eating and drinking places category appears to be in scale with the overall population base and as such is not significantly driven by visitor spending. That said, limited service restaurants account for the largest share of TRS among eating and drinking places.
The boat dealers category is another significant component of the City’s tax base and one which serves the largest market outside the City. The majority of sales coming from new and used boat sales, but another significant share coming from marine supplies and hardware.
All Other,
$1,443,744
Wood Product
Manufacturing,
$9,153,843
Boat building and
repairs, $4,975,550
Fresh and Frozen
Seafood
Processing,
$457,049
Logging, $341,700
Marine supply,
$2,203,706
New and Used
Boats, $17,206,912
Other, $170,191
Snack and
Nonalcoholic
Beverage Bars,
$2,132,349
Limited-Service
Restaurants,
$10,215,488
Full-Service
Restaurants,
$8,318,727
Marine Sales (6.2%)
Eating and Drinking Places (6.7%)
City
of A
nac
ort
es:
Eco
nom
ic S
tudy
Phas
e I
29
Au
gu
st 2
006
$0
$500
$1,0
00
$1,5
00
$2,0
00
$2,5
00
$3,0
00
$3,5
00
$4,0
00
$4,5
00
Food
Mar
ine
Auto
Deal
ers
Hote
ls/M
ote
lsM
anufa
cturing
Contr
acting
Eat
ing/
Drinki
ng
Furn
iture
/Equip
Appar
el
Build
ing
Mat
erial
s
Dru
g Sto
res
Busi
ness
Serv
ices
Anac
ort
es
Port
Ange
les
Port
Tow
nse
nd
Oak
Har
bor
Sta
te
Mark
et
Co
mp
osit
ion
& S
ecto
r B
reakd
ow
n
Ob
serv
ati
on
s
The
char
t pre
sents
per
cap
ita ta
xable
reta
il sa
les
(TRS)
dat
a fo
r the
City
of A
nac
ortes
an
d thre
e oth
er c
om
par
able
citi
es: Po
rt A
nge
les,
Port T
ow
nse
nd, a
nd O
ak H
arbor.
Stat
ewid
e dat
a ar
e al
so in
cluded
.
The
mea
sure
pro
vides
a c
om
par
ison r
elat
ing
reta
il sa
les
orig
inat
ing
in a
city
ad
just
ed for its
rel
ativ
e popula
tion s
ize.
Anac
ort
es o
ut per
form
s al
l the
com
par
ison c
ities
, as
wel
l as
the
stat
e, in
per
cap
ita
TRS
for M
arin
e, A
uto
Dea
lers
, and D
rug
Store
indust
ries.
It fa
res
less
wel
l in the
Appar
el in
dust
ry.
Anac
ort
es d
oes
not
per
form
as
wel
l as
Port T
ow
nse
nd in t
he
Food, H
ote
l/M
ote
l, an
d E
atin
g/D
rinki
ng
indust
ries,
sec
tors
that
often
refl
ect
the
influ
ence
of
visi
tor
spen
din
g in
an a
rea.
• • •
o
•
Co
mp
ari
son
of
Per
Cap
ita T
RS b
y In
du
stry
Sect
or
in 2
004 D
ollars
(A
vera
ge 2
002-2
004)
Sourc
e: W
ashin
gton S
tate
Dep
artm
ent of Rev
enue,
2005
City
of A
nac
ort
es:
Eco
nom
ic S
tudy
Phas
e I
30
Au
gu
st 2
006
010,0
00
20,0
00
30,0
00
40,0
00
50,0
00
60,0
00
70,0
00
80,0
00
90,0
00
100,0
00
110,0
00
BU
ILD
ING
MA
TER
IALS
/HA
RD
WA
RE
LU
MB
ER
/BLD
G M
ATER
IALS
521-5
22
PA
INT, G
LASS, W
ALL
PA
PER
523
H
AR
DW
AR
E S
TO
RES 5
25
N
UR
SER
IES/G
AR
DEN
SU
PPLI
ES 5
26
M
OB
ILE H
OM
E D
EA
LER
S 5
27
GEN
ER
AL
MER
CH
AN
DIS
E
O
TH
ER
GEN
ER
AL
MER
CH
AN
DIS
E
FO
OD
G
RO
CER
Y S
TO
RES 5
41
FR
UIT
/VEG
ETA
BLE
/MEA
T 5
42-5
43
O
TH
ER
FO
OD
STO
RES
AU
TO
DEA
LER
S/G
AS S
TA
TIO
NS
A
UTO
DEA
LER
S (
NEW
/USED
) 551-5
52
A
CC
ESSO
RY D
EA
LER
S 5
53
SER
VIC
E S
TA
TIO
NS 5
54
M
AR
INE/A
IRC
RA
FT, ETC
APPA
REL/
AC
CESSO
RIE
S
C
LOTH
ING
561-5
65
SH
OES 5
66
O
TH
ER
AC
CESSO
RIE
S
FU
RN
ITU
RE/F
UR
NIS
HIN
GS/E
QU
IP
FU
RN
ITU
RE 5
71
A
PPLI
AN
CES 5
72
ELE
CTR
ON
ICS/M
USIC
STO
RES 5
73
EA
TIN
G/D
RIN
KIN
G P
LAC
ES
MIS
CELL
AN
EO
US R
ETA
IL S
TO
RES
D
RU
G S
TO
RES 5
91
M
ISC
ELL
AN
EO
US S
HO
PPIN
G G
OO
DS 5
94
N
ON
STO
RE R
ETA
ILER
S 5
96
FU
EL
DEA
LER
598
O
TH
ER
RETA
IL S
TO
RES
HO
TELS
/MO
TELS
, ETC
70
PER
SO
NA
L SER
VIC
ES 7
2
BU
SIN
ESS S
ER
VIC
ES 7
3
C
OM
PU
TER
SER
VIC
ES 7
37
AU
TO
MO
TIV
E R
EPA
IR/S
ER
VIC
ES 7
5
OTH
ER
SER
VIC
ES
CO
NTR
AC
TIN
G 1
5-1
7
MA
NU
FAC
TU
RIN
G 1
9-3
9
TR
AN
SPO
RTA
TIO
N/C
OM
M /
UTIL
ITIE
S 4
0-4
9
WH
OLE
SA
LIN
G 5
0-5
1
FIN
AN
CE/I
NSU
RA
NC
E/R
EA
L ESTA
TE 6
0-6
7
OTH
ER
BU
SIN
ESS 0
-14 &
90'S
Anac
ortes
+Fi
dal
go+
San J
uan
Co.
2004
popula
tion =
36,7
29
Anac
ortes
+Fi
dal
go (
estim
ated
) 2004 p
opula
tion =
21,6
29
Anac
ortes
2004 p
opula
tion =
15,4
70
Sp
en
din
g U
nit
s
Ho
w t
o R
ead
th
is C
hart
The
char
t re
pre
sents
tax
able
ret
ail sa
les
by
indust
ry f
or
Anac
ortes
div
ided
by
the
Stat
e’s
per
cap
ita ta
xable
reta
il sa
les
ratio
. The
resu
lting
calc
ula
tion y
ield
s a
mea
sure
th
at e
stim
ates
the
mar
ket
size
, in
spen
din
g units
, fo
r re
tail
sale
s in
Anac
ort
es.
Spen
din
g units
are
conce
ptu
aliz
ed a
s th
e popula
tion s
erve
d b
y a
par
ticula
r m
arke
t. D
ata
are
org
aniz
ed b
y prin
cipal
indust
ry s
ecto
r fo
llow
ed b
y its
res
pec
tive
sub-
sect
ors
. The
2004 S
tate
popula
tion e
stim
ates
for A
nac
ortes
, Anac
ortes
plu
s Fi
dal
go
Isla
nd, a
nd A
nac
ortes
plu
s Fi
dal
go Is
land p
lus
San J
uan
County
are
show
n.
Ob
serv
ati
on
s
Anac
ortes
’ lar
gest
mar
ket is
the
Auto
Dea
lers
/Gas
Sta
tion in
dust
ries.
With
in t
his
sec
tor,
the
Mar
ine/
Airc
raft i
ndust
ries
reac
h a
mar
ket
size
ove
r 100,0
00 s
pen
din
g units
.
Build
ing
Mat
eria
ls/H
ardw
are
and i
ts L
um
ber
sub-s
ecto
r ar
e w
ell
bel
ow
the
popula
tion s
ize
of Anac
ortes
.
The
city
ser
ves
a la
rge
mar
ket si
ze for Fr
uit/
Vege
table
s/M
eat pro
duct
s.
Man
ufa
cturin
g an
d D
rug
Store
s re
ach s
imila
rly la
rge
mar
kets
.
• • • • •
Esti
mate
d M
ark
et
Siz
e b
y I
nd
ustr
y S
ecto
r
Pri
nci
pal Sect
or
Su
b-S
ect
ors
Sourc
e: W
ashin
gton S
tate
Dep
artm
ent of Rev
enue,
2005
City
of A
nac
ort
es:
Eco
nom
ic S
tudy
Phas
e I
31
Au
gu
st 2
006
Tre
nd
s i
n
Mark
et
Secto
rs
Anac
ortes
has
exp
erie
nce
d incr
ease
s in
mar
ket
size
fo
r Fo
od, E
atin
g/D
rinki
ng,
and P
erso
nal
Ser
vice
s ove
r th
e 1994-2
004 tim
e per
iod.
Am
ong
thes
e, th
e la
rges
t ga
ins
wer
e in
Pe
rsonal
Se
rvic
es a
nd F
ood. N
o s
ubst
antia
l chan
ges
in m
arke
t si
ze
wer
e se
en
in
Hote
ls/M
ote
ls
and
Furn
iture
/Eq
uip
men
t. Po
rt
Ange
les
had
, by
far,
the
larg
est
mar
ket si
ze for H
ote
ls/M
ote
ls; poss
ibly
, der
ived
fro
m
its loca
tion o
n S
R 3
and a
s th
e W
A t
erm
inal
for
the
Vict
oria
, B.C
. fer
ry.
• •
Cit
y P
op
ula
tio
n
0
5,0
00
10,0
00
15,0
00
20,0
00
25,0
00
30,0
00
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Anac
ort
es
Port
Ange
les
Port
Tow
nse
nd
Oak
Har
bor
Est
imate
d M
ark
et
Siz
e f
or
FOO
D
0
5,0
00
10,0
00
15,0
00
20,0
00
25,0
00
30,0
00
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Average Spending Units
Anac
ort
es
Port
Ange
les
Port
Tow
nse
nd
Oak
Har
bor
Est
imate
d M
ark
et
Siz
e f
or
HO
TELS
AN
D M
OTE
LS
0
10,0
00
20,0
00
30,0
00
40,0
00
50,0
00
60,0
00
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Average Spending Units
Anac
ort
es
Port
Ange
les
Port
Tow
nse
nd
Oak
Har
bor
Est
imate
d M
ark
et
Siz
e f
or
EA
TIN
G/D
RIN
KIN
G
0
5,0
00
10,0
00
15,0
00
20,0
00
25,0
00
30,0
00
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Average Spending Units
Anac
ort
es
Port
Ange
les
Port
Tow
nse
nd
Oak
Har
bor
Est
imate
d M
ark
et
Siz
e f
or
PER
SO
NA
L SER
VIC
ES
0
5,0
00
10,0
00
15,0
00
20,0
00
25,0
00
30,0
00
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Average Spending Units
Anac
ort
es
Port
Ange
les
Port
Tow
nse
nd
Oak
Har
bor
Est
imate
d M
ark
et
Siz
e f
or
FUR
NIT
UR
E/E
QU
IPM
EN
T
0
5,0
00
10,0
00
15,0
00
20,0
00
25,0
00
30,0
00
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Average Spending Units
Anac
ort
es
Port
Ange
les
Port
Tow
nse
nd
Oak
Har
bor
Sourc
e fo
r al
l char
ts: W
ashin
gton S
tate
Dep
artm
ent of Rev
enue,
2005
City
of A
nac
ort
es:
Eco
nom
ic S
tudy
Phas
e I
32
Au
gu
st 2
006
Est
imate
d M
ark
et
Siz
e f
or
BU
SIN
ESS S
ER
VIC
ES
0
5,0
00
10,0
00
15,0
00
20,0
00
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Average Spending Units
Anac
ort
es
Port
Ange
les
Port
Tow
nse
nd
Oak
Har
bor
Est
imate
d M
ark
et
Siz
e f
or
MA
RIN
E
0
30,0
00
60,0
00
90,0
00
120,0
00
150,0
00
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Average Spending Units
Anac
ort
es
Port
Ange
les
Port
Tow
nse
nd
Oak
Har
bor
Est
imate
d M
ark
et
Siz
e f
or
AU
TO D
EA
LER
S
0
10,0
00
20,0
00
30,0
00
40,0
00
50,0
00
60,0
00
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Average Spending Units
Anac
ort
es
Port
Ange
les
Port
Tow
nse
nd
Oak
Har
bor
Est
imate
d M
ark
et
Siz
e f
or
MA
NU
FAC
TUR
ING
0
10,0
00
20,0
00
30,0
00
40,0
00
50,0
00
60,0
00
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Average Spending Units
Anac
ort
es
Port
Ange
les
Port
Tow
nse
nd
Oak
Har
bor
Est
imate
d M
ark
et
Siz
e f
or
BU
ILD
ING
MA
TER
IALS
0
5,0
00
10,0
00
15,0
00
20,0
00
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Average Spending Units
Anac
ort
es
Port
Ange
les
Port
Tow
nse
nd
Oak
Har
bor
Est
imate
d M
ark
et
Siz
e f
or
TRA
NSP
OR
TATI
ON
/CO
MM
UN
ICA
TIO
N/U
TILI
TIES
0
5,0
00
10,0
00
15,0
00
20,0
00
25,0
00
30,0
00
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Average Spending Units
Anac
ort
es
Port
Ange
les
Port
Tow
nse
nd
Oak
Har
bor
Sourc
e fo
r al
l char
ts: W
ashin
gton S
tate
Dep
artm
ent of Rev
enue,
2005
Tre
nd
s i
n
Mark
et
Secto
rs
Anac
ortes
has
th
e la
rges
t es
timat
ed
mar
ket
size
fo
r M
arin
e in
dust
ries.
The
tren
d a
ppea
rs c
yclic
with
an
in
crea
se in
1994 to
1998 bef
ore
fa
lling
and
reboundin
g in
2000 to 2
004.
Anac
ortes
has
als
o s
how
n g
row
th in
the
mar
ket
size
fo
r M
anufa
cturin
g, T
ransp
ortat
ion/C
om
munic
atio
ns/
Util
ities
, and A
uto
Dea
lers
.
The
Auto
Dea
ler
tren
d r
eflec
ts t
he
1999 a
nnex
atio
n
of la
nd in
to the
city
whic
h the
dea
lers
hip
s re
side.
The
estim
ated
mar
ket si
ze for
Build
ing
Mat
eria
ls a
nd
Busi
nes
s Se
rvic
es h
as rem
ained
rel
ativ
ely
stab
le o
ver
the
anal
ysis
per
iod.
• • • •
City
of A
nac
ort
es:
Eco
nom
ic S
tudy
Phas
e I
33
Au
gu
st 2
006
Est
imate
d M
ark
et
Siz
e f
or
AP
PA
REL
AN
D A
CC
ESSO
RIE
S
0
5,0
00
10,0
00
15,0
00
20,0
00
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Average Spending Units
Anac
ort
es
Port
Ange
les
Port
Tow
nse
nd
Oak
Har
bor
Est
imate
d M
ark
et
Siz
e f
or
WH
OLE
SA
LIN
G
0
5,0
00
10,0
00
15,0
00
20,0
00
25,0
00
30,0
00
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Average Spending Units
Anac
ort
es
Port
Ange
les
Port
Tow
nse
nd
Oak
Har
bor
Est
imate
d M
ark
et
Siz
e f
or
FIN
AN
CE/I
NSU
RA
NC
E/R
EA
L ESTA
TE
0
10,0
00
20,0
00
30,0
00
40,0
00
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Average Spending Units
Anac
ort
es
Port
Ange
les
Port
Tow
nse
nd
Oak
Har
bor
Est
imate
d M
ark
et
Siz
e f
or
DR
UG
STO
RES
0
10,0
00
20,0
00
30,0
00
40,0
00
50,0
00
60,0
00
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Average Spending Units
Anac
ort
es
Port
Ange
les
Port
Tow
nse
nd
Oak
Har
bor
Est
imate
d M
ark
et
Siz
e f
or
CO
NTR
AC
TIN
G
0
5,0
00
10,0
00
15,0
00
20,0
00
25,0
00
30,0
00
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Average Spending Units
Anac
ort
es
Port
Ange
les
Port
Tow
nse
nd
Oak
Har
bor
Esti
mate
d M
ark
et
Siz
e f
or
FU
EL D
EA
LER
S
0
10,0
00
20,0
00
30,0
00
40,0
00
50,0
00
60,0
00
70,0
00
80,0
00
90,0
00
100,0
00
110,0
00
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Anac
ort
es
Port
Ange
les
Port
Tow
nse
nd
Oak
Har
bor
Sourc
e fo
r al
l char
ts: W
ashin
gton S
tate
Dep
artm
ent of Rev
enue,
2005
Tre
nd
s i
n
Mark
et
Secto
rs
Estim
ated
m
arke
t si
zes
for
Whole
salin
g,
Finan
ce/
Insu
rance
/Rea
l Est
ate,
Dru
g St
ore
s, a
nd F
uel
Dea
lers
hav
e post
ed m
odes
t ga
ins.
The
mar
ket fo
r Appar
el a
nd C
ontrac
ting
in A
nac
ortes
has
dec
lined
slig
htly
ove
r th
e an
alys
is p
erio
d.
• •
City of Anacortes: Economic Study Phase I 34
August 2006
Consumer Survey FindingsSHOPPING LOCATIONS
Items that residents are purchasing largely in Anacortes:
• Groceries • Banking services
• Medical/Dental services • Postage/Shipping services
• Dining out (breakfast was the highest with 90% saying they most frequently eat in Anacortes, Dinner was the second-highest at 83.6%, and lunch followed with 81.6%)
Items that residents are purchasing at high percentages outside of Anacortes (and where)
• Gasoline (30.2% in Mount Vernon area) • Clothing (74.1% in Mount Vernon area)
• Electronics (54.2% in Mount Vernon area) • Other Services (17.1% in Mount Vernon area and 13.0% in Other locations)
• Theater (16.2% in Mount Vernon area and 15.1% in Seattle)
• Other Entertainment (22.3% Seattle, 9.4% Mount Vernon area and 9.4% Other locations)
FESTIVALS
Those that many residents report attending
• Arts Festival (72.5%) • Shipwreck Day (63.4%)
• Waterfront Festival (61.3%)
Those that many residents report not attending
• Christmas Parade (67.3% do not attend) • Jazz Festival (81.3%)
• Fall Festival (85.8%) • Kids R Best Fest (86.8%)
PERCENT OF MONEY SPENT IN ANACORTES
Items that many residents report 80% or more of their total spending occurs in Anacortes
• Groceries (54.7% of residents spend 80%-100% of total spending)
• Pharmacy (59.4%) • Post Office (79.8%)
• Beauty Services (58.2%) • Financial Services (58.4%)
• Doctor/Lawyer Services (65.3%)
Items that many residents report 20% or less of their total spending occurs in Anacortes
• Apparel (82.7% of residents spend 20% or less in Anacortes)
• Furniture (63.5%) • Electronics (65.7%)
City of Anacortes: Economic Study Phase I 35
August 2006
How Many Months Out of the Year Do You Live in Anacortes?
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
1-3 months 4-6 months 7-9 months 10-12 months
Consumer Survey Findings
What is Your Age?
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
below 30 30 to 45 46 to 55 56 to 65 over 65
Where Do You Work?
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
In Town Out of Town Retired
Where Do You Most Frequently Shop for the Following Items?
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Grocery
Hardware
Thrift Store
Antique Store
Gas
Art Store
Electronics
Clothing
Other Seattle Bellingham Burlington/Mount Vernon Anacortes
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Post/Ship
Banking
Med/Dental
Other
Spa
Other Seattle Bellingham Burlington/Mount Vernon Anacortes
City of Anacortes: Economic Study Phase I 36
August 2006
Roughly What Portion of Your Spending Do You Spend in Anacortes Each Year?
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Post Office
Barber, Beauty, Etc
Doctor/Lawyer
Financial Services
Insurance
Drug Stores
Movies, Art/Theater
Groceries
Hardware/Lumber
Other/Misc.
Furniture
Electronics
Restaurants
Apparel
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
How Frequently do You Do Use the Following Services in Anacortes?
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Shopping
Post Office
Dining
Entertainment
Beauty services
Financial services
Professional services
No response 3-5 x Week 1-2 x Week 1 x Month 1 x Year Never
Consumer Survey Findings
City of Anacortes: Economic Study Phase I
Anacortes Landbase Analysis
City
of A
nac
ort
es:
Eco
nom
ic S
tudy
Phas
e I
Au
gu
st 2
006
38
GUEMESCHANNEL
BURROWSBAY
FI DA L
G OB A
Y
Wash
ingto
nPark
Cap
Sante
Park
PreliminaryDiscussionDraft
Anacortes
FerryTerm
inal
2.5
orless
2.6
-5.0
5.1
-10.0
10.1
-15.0
15.1
-25.0
25.1
ormore
AssessedLandValue
(Dollars
pers.f.ofland)
00.5
1
Miles
Sourc
e: S
kagi
t C
ounty
Ass
esso
rs O
ffice
, Nove
mber
2005
Assessed
Lan
d V
alu
e b
y P
arc
el, 2
005
The
most
val
uab
le la
nd in
Anac
ortes
is c
once
ntrat
ed a
long
Hig
hw
ay
20 a
nd w
ater
front
area
s. T
he
dow
nto
wn c
om
mer
cial
corrid
or
and
Skyl
ine
nei
ghborh
ood
ove
rlooki
ng
Burrow
s Bay
st
and
out
with
co
nce
ntrat
ions
of
hig
h v
alue
land. H
igh v
alue
par
cels
are
the
most
lik
ely
to a
ttra
ct a
dditi
onal
inve
stm
ent
and f
ace
dev
elopm
ent
mar
ket
pre
ssure
s.
City
of A
nac
ort
es:
Eco
nom
ic S
tudy
Phas
e I
Au
gu
st 2
006
39
GUEMESCHANNEL
BURROWSBAY
FI DA L
G OB A
Y
Wash
ingto
nPark
Cap
Sante
Park
PreliminaryDiscussionDraft
Anacortes
FerryTerm
inal
0.1
-5.0
5.1
-10.0
10.1
-15.0
15.1
-20.0
20.1
-25.0
25.1
ormore
AssessedBuildin
gValue
(Dollars
pers.f.ofland)
00.5
1
Miles
Assessed
Bu
ild
ing V
alu
e b
y P
arc
el, 2
005
Build
ing
valu
e per
s.f.
of
par
cel
is a
n i
ndic
ator
of
the
inte
nsi
ty a
nd
valu
e of
impro
vem
ents
on a
giv
en p
iece
of
pro
per
ty.
The
grea
test
in
tensi
ty o
f build
ing
inve
stm
ent ca
n b
e se
en in
res
iden
tial c
lust
ers
in
Skyl
ine,
Old
Tow
n a
nd C
entral
Anac
ortes
. As
Anac
ortes
’ dev
elopab
le
land b
ecom
es s
carc
er, p
arce
ls w
ith lo
wer
val
ue
build
ings
on rel
ativ
ely
hig
her
val
ue
land w
ill li
kely
fac
e dev
elopm
ent pre
ssure
.
City
of A
nac
ort
es:
Eco
nom
ic S
tudy
Phas
e I
Au
gu
st 2
006
40
GUEMESCHANNEL
BURROWSBAY
FI DA L
G OB A
Y
Wash
ingto
nPark
Cap
Sante
Park
PreliminaryDiscussionDraft
Anaco
rtes
FerryTe
rmin
al
Public
Use
Land
00.5
1
Miles
worthless
than
$10per
s.f.
oflandan
dlandworthm
ore
than
$10per
s.f.ofland
Parcels
withbuild
ings
LandValue>$10pers.f.
ofland
Buildin
gValu
e<$10pers.f.ofland
Selectin
gonly
parcels
with:
Sourc
e: S
kagi
t C
ounty
Ass
esso
rs O
ffice
, Nove
mber
2005
Parc
els
wit
h H
igh
Lan
d V
alu
e a
nd
Lo
w B
uil
din
g V
alu
e, 2005
GGG
Parc
els in
des
irable
loca
tions an
d c
lose
to a
men
ities
will
attra
ct d
evel
opm
ent
pre
ssure
, par
ticula
rly i
f th
ey h
ave
rela
tivel
y lo
w-v
alue
impro
vem
ents
on
them
. Th
is m
ap h
ighlig
hts
par
cels
wher
e th
e cu
rren
t la
nd v
alue
is m
ore
th
an $
10 p
er s
.f. a
nd the
build
ing
valu
e p
er s
quar
e fo
ot of la
nd (
mea
sure
of in
vest
men
t in
tensi
ty)
is le
ss than
$10 p
er s
.f.
The
hig
h lan
d v
alue/
low
build
ing
valu
e par
cels
are
dis
trib
ute
d a
cross
the
city
with
a s
lightly
hig
her
conce
ntrat
ion found in
Dow
nto
wn A
nac
ortes
and
along
Hig
hw
ay 2
0 e
nte
ring
the
City
.
City
of A
nac
ort
es:
Eco
nom
ic S
tudy
Phas
e I
Au
gu
st 2
006
41
GUEMESCHANNEL
BURROWSBAY
FI DA L
G OB A
Y
Wash
ingto
nPark
Cap
Sante
Park
PreliminaryDiscussionDraft
Anaco
rtes
FerryTe
rmin
al
Public
Use
Land
00.5
1
Miles
worthless
than
$5pers.f.
oflandan
dlandworthm
ore
than
$10per
s.f.ofland
Parcels
withbuild
ings
LandValue>$10pers.f.
ofland
Buildin
gValu
e<$5pers.f.ofland
Selectin
gonly
parcels
with:
Sourc
e: S
kagi
t C
ounty
Ass
esso
rs O
ffice
, Nove
mber
2005
Parc
el
wit
h H
igh
Lan
d V
alu
e a
nd
Lo
w B
uil
din
g V
alu
e, 2005
This
map
build
s off t
he
pre
vious
map
but
low
ers
the
build
ing
valu
e cu
toff t
o $
5 p
er s
.f. o
f la
nd.
The
resu
lting
sub s
elec
tion o
f par
cels
, fo
und in
sm
all c
lust
ers
in the
Skyl
ine
nei
ghborh
ood a
nd c
om
mer
cial
co
rrid
or,
is w
her
e th
e le
vel of
build
ing
inve
stm
ent
is e
ven m
ore
out
of st
ep w
ith the
under
lyin
g la
nd v
alue.
City
of A
nac
ort
es:
Eco
nom
ic S
tudy
Phas
e I
Au
gu
st 2
006
42
F ID A
L GOB A
Y
Cap
Sante
Park
AssessedLa
ndValue
(Dollars
pers.f.ofland)
PublicUse
Land
00.2
50.5
Miles
F ID A
L GOB A
Y
Cap
Sante
Park
PreliminaryDiscussionDraft
10.0
-15.0
15.1
-20.0
20.1
-25.0
25.1
ormore
00.2
50.5
Miles
LandValue>$10pers.f.
ofland
Buildin
gValu
e<$5pers.f.ofland
Selectin
gonly
parcels
with:
LandValue>$10pers.f.
ofland
Buildin
gValu
e<$10pers.f.ofland
Selectin
gonly
parcels
with:
Com
mercialZones
Sourc
e: S
kagi
t C
ounty
Ass
esso
rs O
ffice
, Nove
mber
2005
Do
wn
tow
n P
arc
els
wit
h H
igh
Lan
d V
alu
e a
nd
Lo
w B
uil
din
g V
alu
e, 2005
When
the
sele
ctio
n is
lim
ited to
those
par
cels
w
ith b
uild
ings
worth les
s th
an $
5 p
er s
.f. o
f la
nd,
man
y of
the
resi
den
tial
par
cels
dro
p
off a
nd p
rimar
ily p
arce
ls i
n t
he
com
mer
cial
zo
nes
ar
e le
ft.
Thes
e par
cels
hav
e th
e gr
eate
st p
ote
ntia
l to s
ee d
evel
opm
ent m
arke
t pre
ssure
s.
F ID A
LLL
Thes
e m
aps
show
s th
e sa
me
sele
ctio
ns
of
hig
h
land
valu
e/lo
w
build
ing
valu
e par
cels
but
with
a f
ocu
s in
the
Dow
nto
wn
com
mer
cial
corrid
or an
d O
ld T
ow
n.
F ID A
L GOB A
Y
Man
y co
mm
erci
al
par
cels
al
ong
Hig
hw
ay
20
and
resi
den
tial
par
cels
w
est
and
south
of
Hig
hw
ay
20
hav
e th
e pote
ntia
l to
se
e fu
ture
in
vest
men
ts
as
the
under
lyin
g la
nd
valu
e bec
om
es
incr
easi
ngl
y out-
of-st
ep
with
th
e le
vel
of
inve
stm
ent in
build
ings
.
City
of A
nac
ort
es:
Eco
nom
ic S
tudy
Phas
e I
Au
gu
st 2
006
43
GUEMESCHANNEL
BURROWSBAY
FI DA L
G OB A
Y
Wash
ingto
nPark
Cap
Sante
Park
PreliminaryDiscussionDraft
Anacortes
FerryTerm
inal
YearBuildin
gs
Were
Built
00.5
1
Miles
1930orearlier
1931-1950
1951-1970
1971-1990
1991-2000
2001-2005
PublicUse
Land
Sourc
e: S
kagi
t C
ounty
Ass
esso
rs O
ffice
, Nove
mber
2005
Bu
ild
ing Y
ear
Bu
ilt
by P
arc
el, a
s o
f 2005
The
City
of Anac
ortes
has
dev
eloped
fro
m e
ast to
wes
t w
ith m
ost
of
the
old
er b
uild
ings
clu
ster
ed a
round O
ld T
ow
n a
nd t
he
Dow
nto
wn
com
mer
cial
co
rrid
or.
More
re
cent
dev
elopm
ent
has
occ
urred
in
re
siden
tial n
eigh
borh
oods
in c
entral
Anac
ort
es a
nd S
kylin
e.
City
of A
nac
ort
es:
Eco
nom
ic S
tudy
Phas
e I
Au
gu
st 2
006
44
GUEMESCHANNEL
BURROWSBAY
FI DA L
G OB A
Y
Wash
ingto
nPark
Cap
Sante
Park
PreliminaryDiscussionDraft
Anacortes
FerryTerm
inal
Most
Recent
Sale
Date
00.5
1
Miles
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Public
Use
Land
Note:Pa
rcelswithasa
leprice
less
than
$25,000
areexc
luded
Sourc
e: S
kagi
t C
ounty
Ass
esso
rs O
ffice
, Nove
mber
2005
Mo
st
Recen
t Sale
Date
by P
arc
el, 2
001-2
005
GUEEE
Ove
r th
e pas
t fiv
e ye
ars
ove
r hal
f th
e par
cels
in
Anac
ort
es h
ave
bee
n s
old
. Sin
ce 2
001 s
ales
hav
e in
crea
sed fro
m a
bout 600 to o
ver 1,0
00 in
eac
h
of
the
pas
t tw
o y
ears
. Sa
les
hav
e bee
n e
venly
dis
trib
ute
d
acro
ss
the
city
w
ith
no
sign
ifica
nt
clust
erin
g pat
tern
s.
Parc
el
Sale
Co
un
ts
594
726
948
1,2
61
1,0
49
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005